MLB Home Run Prop Bets Archives

Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Mookie Betts Headlines Great Matchup for Dodgers vs. Pirates)

Thursday's Major League Baseball slate brings a bunch of home run betting opportunities, with most attention on the Dodgers vs. Pirates matchup.

Los Angeles is one of the best hitting teams in baseball and particularly thrives against left-handed pitching. As the team gets set to face Bailey Falter, I'm focusing on NL MVP favorite Mookie Betts on today's daily dinger.

Here are three of my favorite home run prop bets for Thursday's card:

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Mookie Betts

Falter has a ton of regression coming his way, and Betts is the threat to hand it to him.

The left-hander has been crushed by hard contact, 23rd percentile hard-hit percentage, and is in the 16th percentile in terms of groundball contact percentage, per MLBStatcast.

Meanwhile, Betts has .333/.400/.506 against lefties. While he only has two home runs against lefty pitching, the wind is blowing out at more than 11 miles per hour at PNC Park on Thursday.

All indications is Betts is in for a big day at the dish, and I like his odds to go deep.

C.J. Abrams

Abrams is only hitting .246 this season, but most of his power comes against right-handed pitching, hitting six of nine home runs against those types of pitchers.

He'll face Reynaldo Lopez, who has struggled to contain lefty hitters this season. The regression-bound Lopez, who has an xERA nearly double his actual ERA (he has a 1.73 ERA vs. an xERA of 3.72), has allowed two home runs on the year, both to left-handed hitters.

Abrams has a favorable matchup and can cash in at long odds given some of the lingering regression looming for Lopez.

Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt isn't hitting the ball as much anymore, he is batting .223 on the year but is starting to hit the ball with more power, crushing five home runs in the month of May.

He will face soft-tossing Cal Quantril with the wind expected to be blowing out at 16 miles per hour at Busch Stadium. Goldschmidt is making hard contact at a high rate, ranking in the 73rd percentile. This is a game made for hitters on Thursday, I'll take Goldschmidt.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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5 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Gunnar Henderson’s Prime to Go Yard)

With baseball all day, we all want to know who is going to crack one deep.

Lucky for you, I've canvassed the board for some advantageous matchups for hitters across Major League Baseball, including MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles.

In addition to Henderson, I'm eyeing two other hitters that are in line ofr home runs, find out who below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson is seeking his 20th home run of the season, and I love it to come on Wednesday.

Ranking in the 95th percentile or better in xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, per MLBStatcast. Henderson is rightfully inside of +400 to go deep against Jose Berrios, who has allowed hard contact on more than 44% of balls put in play, which is in the 18th percentile.

15 of his 19 homers have come against righties, and Berrios' looming regression due to hard contact makes Henderson a prime candidate to go deep on Wednesday.

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario is swinging a sweet bat at the moment, hitting .368 over his last 19 at bats with a home run while slugging .579. He draws a favorable matchup against Dakota Hudson of the Rockies at the hitter friendly Coors Field.

Hudson is struggling this season, posting a 5.02 ERA that balloons at home to a 7.43 ERA in five starts while allowing two home runs.

Candelario is slugging .444 against righties, far higher than his .397 mark against lefties while mashing six of his seven homers against righties, I'll back him in a good spot on Wednesday afternoon in Colorado.

Jake Cronenworth

A lefty batter, Cronenworth is a dangerous hitter against right handed pitching, mashing all of his eight home runs against that side while slugging .528. He is a disciplined hitter who is barreling up nearly nine percent of balls in play, which is in the 63rd percentile.

With the wind blowing out at Angel Stadium at about eight miles per hour, and a soft-tossing Jose Soriano set to start for the Halos, I like Cronenworth to crack his ninth dinger of the year.