MLB Betting Preview Archives

MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

Who wants winners on Saturday?

With 15 Major League Baseball games on the docket Saturday, I'm going across the bigs to find three best bets on the card, including how to bet the Orioles vs. Rays game on Saturday, which features one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Kyle Bradish.

Can Bradish keep it up, or will he come back down to Earth?

Here's my bet for that game, as well as the Nationals vs. Braves matchup and the Reds vs. Cubs matchup in a division-filled best bets slate on Saturday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Atlanta's lineup is struggling and Charlie Morton may not be able to give enough help on the mound. He has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.94 xERA, but has a walk rate of nearly 11%. There are simply too many free bases given out in what may be a low scoring affiar.

Atlanta keeps getting priced like the team will stop its slide, but I'm going to take advantage and go against it.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Cincinnati is playing its best ball now, second in the big leagues in OPS over the last 13 games and play in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. I don't see the difference between the two teams at the moment being neglible, like this line indicates, and I expect Cincy to win with ease at home for a seventh straight game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Saturday's MLB slate is headlined by the battle between the two favorites to win the World Series, the Dodgers against the Yankees in the Bronx.

The World Series preview in June takes center stage as all of Major League Baseball is in action on Saturday. Lucky for you, we have commentary on how to bet every game!

Keep reading to find out how we view each game on the Saturday slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pick: Mets (+150)

There’s some variance baked into this game with it being played in London as part of MLB’s London Series.

With a short center field fence and the wind projected to be blowing out at London Stadium, this can be a short outing for the likes of Ranger Suarez, who is driving most of the opening odds in this game.

Pick: Twins (-120)

Simeon Woods Richardson continues to thrive for the Twins in his first full season with the club, posting a 3.04 ERA while showcasing excellent control, posting a walk rate of only six percent. The Minnesota starter will match up against Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski, who will put a ton of pressure on the Pittsburgh below average bullpen.

With the pitching edge, including a better pen, I’ll take the Twins as short road favorites.

Pick: Nationals (+120)

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Pick: Athletics (+135)

The Blue Jays remain a non starter for me as a road favorite, even against the lowly A’s.

Kevin Gausman has been overvalued all season, and Toronto is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. The right hander has an ERA of 4.60 while his xERA is far worse at 5.26, per MLBStatcast. He is striking out only 22% of batters, the lowest rate since 2018, and remains a worthy fade.

Pick: Brewers (-165)

Freddy Peralta has been outstanding this season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he has faced while keeping his walk rate below eight percent, about the big league average.

It’ll be tough sledding for the Tigers lineup that is bottom third in Major League Baseball in OPS while the Brewers are far better at generating run support for its pitching staff, fourth in the same metric.

Pick: Royals (+115)

The Royals rallied to win 10-9 on Friday, and the team remains a great bet at home, 23-10 at Kauffman Stadium this season.

Kansas City will have a stiff test against Luis Castillo, but the Royals ability to generate power is notable considering Castillo has allowed a barrel percentage in the 28th percentile this season, per MLBStatcast, and allows a high fly ball rate of over 60%.

Pick: Rays (+115)

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Pick: Reds (-120)

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It also helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Pick:Red Sox (-205)

Chicago snapped a 13 game skid on Friday, but I’m not counting on two wins in a row.

Pick: Rockies (+160)

Can Kyle Gibson justify this price tag? The veteran pitcher has a 3.69 ERA that is supported by a 4.99 xERA with a walk rate hovering around 10%.

For what it’s worth, Ryan Feltner pitches better on the road than at the hitter friendly Coors Field, so I can get behind him outperforming expectations.

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The two best teams in baseball continue its weekend series, and I’ll side with the road underdog given the Yankees’ overall fitness with Juan Soto’s status in doubt for the foreseeable future.

If New York’s lineup isn’t at its best, it’ll be tough to keep up with the Dodgers, who have the highest OPS against left handed pitching this season.

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland is the far more talented side here and should have little issue snagging a road win.

Ben Lively’s strikeout rate is at a career high of 23% and the Guardians have the clear offensive edge, 11th in OPS against the Marlins, who check in 29th.

Pick: Diamondbacks (+125)

I’ll take Arizona to stay hot in June, winners of five of six, at an underdog price.

Ryne Nelson isn’t a strikeout-focused pitcher, only 14.9%, but he has limited his walks to only six percent, which is impactful against a Padres team that is reliant on drawing walks to get runners on base. Nelson’s ERA is also due to come down from his mark of 5.44, with an xERA of 4.77.

Pick: Astros (-165)

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been among the best pitchers in baseball, but I expect a tough summer for the veteran left hander.

He has an ERA of 2.37, which is staggering to see given some of his other numbers, including a 16% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, his xERA is 4.49, making him ripe for a few blow ups as the season continues.

I’ll count on Saturday against a Houston lineup that is top five in OPS against southpaws.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Category: MLB Betting Preview

MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)