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Dog Days of Summer: Back the Kansas City Royals tonight at home for plus-money

The Kansas City Royals host the Seattle Mariners tonight at Kaufman Stadium.

Both teams have exceeded expectations this season. The Mariners sit atop the AL West with a 36-28 record, five games ahead of the Texas Rangers. The Royals have a nearly identical record at 37-26 but sit four games behind the Guardians in the AL Central.

Just the way we all drew it up.

Though the two teams have nearly identical records, one stat stands out: run differential. The Royals are at +72, compared to the Mariners at +10.

The Mariners have been successful due to their elite pitching. Seattle's pitching staff has combined for a 3.38 ERA this season, the sixth-best mark in MLB. Their hitting? Let's say it leaves something to be desired. The Mariners have scored an average of just 3.72 runs per game this season, ranking 26th in MLB.

The Royals have been excellent all around. Kansas City pitchers have combined for the eighth-best ERA (3.57), while the offense, led by Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez, has scored an average of 4.68 runs per game this year, ranking sixth in MLB.

Yet, the Royals remain home dogs.

Lefty Daniel Lynch gets the start for Kansas City at home. Lynch was sharp in his last outing, lasting five innings and allowing just five hits and two earned runs to the Minnesota Twins. Lynch has limited innings at the MLB league level this year, but as I mentioned, the Seattle offense is far from a juggernaut. Seattle is batting .219 vs. Southpaws (28th) and slugging just .373 (21st). Kaufman is one of the biggest ballparks, allowing the fifth-fewest home runs per game (1.72).

Bryce Miller gets the start for Seattle. Miller has been excellent this season, pitching to a 3.18 ERA. However, his xERA of 4.10 suggests there could be some regression. His hard-hit rate allowed is in the bottom 12% of the league, and his barrel rate is in the bottom 3%. That could spell trouble vs. Bobby Witt Jr., whose 12.4 barrels per plate appearance ranks fourth in MLB. Miller pitched six innings of no-run ball in his last outing vs. the Angels, but he had a 5.22 ERA in May.

Seattle is the hotter team, going 8-2 across their last 10, while Kansas City is just 3-7. However, sometimes a start at home is just what a team needs to get back on track.

The Royals are 8-7 as home underdogs this year and 22-10 at home overall.

While at it, consider a futures bet for the Royals to win the AL Central (+350). It could be the last time you grab that value.

The Bet: Kansas City ML +110 at DraftKings

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Back the underdog Pirates vs. the Dodgers for a juicy payout

If you’ve followed my bets at Sports Illustrated, you know I love nothing more than plus-money action.

On the surface, backing the Pirates (28-32) vs. the Dodgers (38-24) looks pretty crazy. Los Angeles is the heavy favorite at -180, while Pittsburgh backers will be paid +158 if they pull off the upset.

No, rookie sensation Paul Skenes is not pitching for the Bucs. He got the win on Wednesday night. Neither is Jared Jones. He won on Tuesday. Instead, we will see Bailey Falter get the ball in Pittsburgh as the Pirates go for the sweep.

No one is buzzing about Falter the way they are about his teammates above, but those paying close attention know Falter has an ERA of just 2.56 across his last10 starts. That’s not too shabby.

Full disclosure: Falter is a lefty and the Los Angeles Dodgers mash lefties. They own the second-best OPS and ISO and the third-best SLG vs. southpaws in MLB (hence the -180). However, this team has been struggling offensively lately, averaging just 3.18 runs per game across the last two weeks of play.

Righty Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers. Since returning in May from Tommy John surgery, Buehler has not returned to his previous form. Buehler has an ERA of 4.32 in his five starts this season, and in his two away starts, his ERA is 6.00.

Buehler isn’t generating whiffs, and his 2.16 home runs allowed per nine innings is among the worst in MLB. That could spell trouble if the Pirates continue hitting well.

The Pirates have averaged five runs per game across the past two weeks of play, the fifth-most in MLB. Bryan Reynolds is swinging a hot bat with three home runs and 14 RBI in that period.

Pittsburgh is 9-5 as the home underdog this season. That 64% win rate as the home underdog is the fifth-best in MLB.

The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

The Pirates are 6-4, including a 10-6 win vs. the Dodgers last night.

The Pirates bullpen is a wild card in the event, but no risk it, no biscuit. Who wants to take a walk on the wild side?

The Bet: Pirates ML +158 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

31 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Shota Imanaga’s odds for NL Rookie of the Year move into plus-money; Paul Skenes owns the second-shortest odds

In a stark departure from his usual form, Chicago Cubs rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga allowed seven earned runs to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday and struck out only one across 4 ⅓ innings. It was the first time the lefty allowed more than three runs in a start this season and his ERA "ballooned" to 1.96 as a result.

That could be good for bettors.

Entering Wednesday's game, Imanaga was the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award at -125, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Thursday morning, his odds were +105.

Imanaga has been the heavy favorite for the award for some time now, and this move to plus money could be a chance to grab some value on the rookie.

More importantly, this uncharacteristic start highlights the volatility of backing pitchers for the award.

Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes has the next-best odds for the award at +210 at DraftKings. Olivia Dunne's boyfriend has been lighting up the gun with a fastball that averages 99.3 mph and a max velocity of 102 MPH. He has a 2.25 ERA and a 21-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 16 innings pitched in three starts.

While the velocity is impressive, there is risk to backing Skenes. Not only could his pitching style potentially be more conducive to injury, like a player he's compared to, former Cy Young award winner Stephen Strasberg whose rookie season was cut short for Tommy John surgery, Skenes plays for a team that is not expected to win many games. Skenes could be a generational talent, but I will wait to pull this ticket until there's better value.

Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the next-best odds at +650, followed by another Pittsburgh starter, Jared Jones, at +1300.

Milwaukee Brewers third-baseman Joey Ortiz has the shortest odds among hitters at +1500, well ahead of teammate Jackson Chourio (+5000), who entered the season as a favorite.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

7 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money

Happy Tuesday!

Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings.

Braves ML +145 at DraftKings

Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.

But I digress.

undefined — Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.

Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.

The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams.

The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB.

The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home. After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing.

Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings

The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.

So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves?

Justin Verlander.

Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched. Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.

Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.