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Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Saturday's MLB slate is headlined by the battle between the two favorites to win the World Series, the Dodgers against the Yankees in the Bronx.

The World Series preview in June takes center stage as all of Major League Baseball is in action on Saturday. Lucky for you, we have commentary on how to bet every game!

Keep reading to find out how we view each game on the Saturday slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pick: Mets (+150)

There’s some variance baked into this game with it being played in London as part of MLB’s London Series.

With a short center field fence and the wind projected to be blowing out at London Stadium, this can be a short outing for the likes of Ranger Suarez, who is driving most of the opening odds in this game.

Pick: Twins (-120)

Simeon Woods Richardson continues to thrive for the Twins in his first full season with the club, posting a 3.04 ERA while showcasing excellent control, posting a walk rate of only six percent. The Minnesota starter will match up against Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski, who will put a ton of pressure on the Pittsburgh below average bullpen.

With the pitching edge, including a better pen, I’ll take the Twins as short road favorites.

Pick: Nationals (+120)

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Pick: Athletics (+135)

The Blue Jays remain a non starter for me as a road favorite, even against the lowly A’s.

Kevin Gausman has been overvalued all season, and Toronto is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. The right hander has an ERA of 4.60 while his xERA is far worse at 5.26, per MLBStatcast. He is striking out only 22% of batters, the lowest rate since 2018, and remains a worthy fade.

Pick: Brewers (-165)

Freddy Peralta has been outstanding this season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he has faced while keeping his walk rate below eight percent, about the big league average.

It’ll be tough sledding for the Tigers lineup that is bottom third in Major League Baseball in OPS while the Brewers are far better at generating run support for its pitching staff, fourth in the same metric.

Pick: Royals (+115)

The Royals rallied to win 10-9 on Friday, and the team remains a great bet at home, 23-10 at Kauffman Stadium this season.

Kansas City will have a stiff test against Luis Castillo, but the Royals ability to generate power is notable considering Castillo has allowed a barrel percentage in the 28th percentile this season, per MLBStatcast, and allows a high fly ball rate of over 60%.

Pick: Rays (+115)

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Pick: Reds (-120)

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It also helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Pick:Red Sox (-205)

Chicago snapped a 13 game skid on Friday, but I’m not counting on two wins in a row.

Pick: Rockies (+160)

Can Kyle Gibson justify this price tag? The veteran pitcher has a 3.69 ERA that is supported by a 4.99 xERA with a walk rate hovering around 10%.

For what it’s worth, Ryan Feltner pitches better on the road than at the hitter friendly Coors Field, so I can get behind him outperforming expectations.

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The two best teams in baseball continue its weekend series, and I’ll side with the road underdog given the Yankees’ overall fitness with Juan Soto’s status in doubt for the foreseeable future.

If New York’s lineup isn’t at its best, it’ll be tough to keep up with the Dodgers, who have the highest OPS against left handed pitching this season.

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland is the far more talented side here and should have little issue snagging a road win.

Ben Lively’s strikeout rate is at a career high of 23% and the Guardians have the clear offensive edge, 11th in OPS against the Marlins, who check in 29th.

Pick: Diamondbacks (+125)

I’ll take Arizona to stay hot in June, winners of five of six, at an underdog price.

Ryne Nelson isn’t a strikeout-focused pitcher, only 14.9%, but he has limited his walks to only six percent, which is impactful against a Padres team that is reliant on drawing walks to get runners on base. Nelson’s ERA is also due to come down from his mark of 5.44, with an xERA of 4.77.

Pick: Astros (-165)

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been among the best pitchers in baseball, but I expect a tough summer for the veteran left hander.

He has an ERA of 2.37, which is staggering to see given some of his other numbers, including a 16% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, his xERA is 4.49, making him ripe for a few blow ups as the season continues.

I’ll count on Saturday against a Houston lineup that is top five in OPS against southpaws.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Yankees Receive Positive Update After Juan Soto Leaves Game With Forearm Tightness

New York Yankees fans everywhere can breathe a sigh of relief.

Yankees right fielder Juan Soto will not go on the injured list after exiting New York's 8–5 win over the Minnesota Twins on Thursday with forearm tightness, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Friday afternoon.

"Good news, obviously," Boone said. "Waiting on that, on those results, I think in the grand scheme of things we got some good news."

Boone characterized Soto as day-to-day with left forearm inflammation and said he could be available off the bench Friday against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Soto, 25, is slashing an astounding .318/.424/.603 with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs this season. His 3.6 bWAR ranks fourth in the American League, and has helped the Yankees start 45–19.

"There might have been some anxious moments in there," Boone said. "But ... also probably a little optimism there, too, because he's been playing and been playing really well and has been able to play."

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Twins’ Royce Lewis Offers Cool Tribute to Derek Jeter in First Yankee Stadium At-Bat

The Minnesota Twins paid a visit to the Bronx for a series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium which got underway on Tuesday.

It marked the first time Twins shortstop Royce Lewis played at the renowned ballpark, and he opted to pay tribute to his all-time favorite player during his first at-bat of the game, legendary Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter.

After stepping into the batter's box, Lewis replicated Jeter's routine, tapping the tip of his bat into the dirt while lifting his right arm up as he set his feet.

Lewis broke down the significance of Jeter to him ahead of Wednesday's tilt.

"It was just a personal thing I wanted to do. Pay a ode to such a mentor and a great player, and a well respected player around the league. And for me, my favorite player, and I was lucky enough to be able to do that in my first game in Yankee Stadium," Lewis said.

Royce Lewis paid tribute to Derek Jeter in his first at bat last night.
Lewis spoke on what Jeter meant to him growing up before tonight’s game pic.twitter.com/vaUFINZwdG
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 5, 2024

"Thank you for everything you did for the game of baseball. Thank you for being such a great player on and off the field. Really well respected, and it meant a lot to me and it formed me to be the man I am today," said Lewis when asked if he'd have a message for Jeter if he were standing in front of him.

Despite a Minnesota loss, Lewis managed to make a memory in his first trip to the iconic stadium, launching a solo home run during the seventh inning, his second homer of the year.

8 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Twins’ Rally Sausage—Yes, an Actual Sausage—Lives on After Winning Streak

The Minnesota Twins' recent winning streak was halted at 12 games, but the original summer sausage that players jokingly said inspired the hot stretch remains with the team.

The Athletic's Dan Hayes confirmed Tuesday that the original sausage—which manager Rocco Baldelli said would be disposed once the winning streak ended—is still with the team. And in fact, its magic is still intact.

When the Twins' offense was struggling through the early innings of the series opener against the Seattle Mariners on Monday night, the original sausage was brought back into the dugout. The Twins went on to rally for one run in the fifth inning and two more in the seventh to secure a 3–1 win at Target Field.

BREAKING: The #MNTwins original summer sausage lives on. The Twins did not destroy it. And when they weren’t scoring early last night, the OG sausage was summoned in the middle of the game and the Twins put up three runs.
— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) May 7, 2024

The Twins were struggling to start the year, winning just seven of their first 20 games despite entering the season as heavy favorites to win the AL Central. Those struggles persisted until the rally sausage was brought into the fold by Minnesota infielder Kyle Farmer.

During a series in April against the Chicago White Sox, Farmer found a Cloverdale summer sausage in his locker. He didn't want it, so he set the sausage on a table in the clubhouse for teammates to enjoy.

For some reason, Twins hitting coach David Popkins grabbed the sausage off the table and brought it to the dugout. The Twins won that day, so the sausage stayed. It became the center of celebrations after a homer or a big hit, as Minnesota catcher Ryan Jeffers would chuck the sausage at a teammate as he strolled back into the dugout.

the twins are touching sausage for good luck and it might be working pic.twitter.com/3cqMfo5waV
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 30, 2024

The Twins went on to win 12 straight games, tied for the second-longest winning streak in franchise history.

Minnesota and Seattle continue their series Tuesday at Target Field. The original rally sausage likely will be in attendance, too—just don't tell the FDA.

4 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Twins Closer Jhoan Duran Might Have the Best Entrance in MLB

Minnesota Twins flamethrower Jhoan Duran's iconic ninth-inning entrance made its season debut Friday night at Target Field.

Duran, who missed the first month of the 2024 campaign with an oblique injury, had his first opportunity to earn a save at home in the Twins' 5–2 win over the Boston Red Sox.

After Duran threw his final warm-up pitch in the bullpen, the lights at Target Field turned off. Fans in attendance turned on their cell phone lights as flames engulfed every jumbotron and screen at the ballpark. Duran trotted in toward the mound as a club-style song—mixed just for this entrance—blared over the speakers.

Chills.

Here's a clip of Duran's entrance:

Jhoan Duran's entrance, just like I always wanted to see on the #MNTwins broadcast. Awesome. pic.twitter.com/ieBzKe1pNo
— Chris Hanel, Baseball Enthusiast (@GoTwinkiesGo) May 4, 2024

The entrance song's special formula? A few dongs from The Undertaker's theme song that fades into lyrics from Pitbull and Daddy Yankee's "Hot" mixed with the beat from "El Incomprendido" by Farruko.

Duran didn't disappoint in his outing either, striking out two hitters in a perfect 1-2-3 inning to secure the win and his second save of the season. He threw six pitches over 100 mph and topped out at 102.7 mph—velocity that lives up to his electric entrance.

There are a few goosebump-enducing closer entrances around baseball these days. The New York Mets started this trend with Edwin Diaz walking out to "Narco" by Timmy Trumpet. The San Francisco Giants also unveiled a new entrance for closer Camilo Doval this season.

If Duran's entrance isn't the best in baseball, it's certainly up there.

The Twins and Red Sox will continue their three-game weekend series on Saturday at Target Field.

4 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Padres to Acquire Luis Arráez in Trade With Marlins, per Report

Luis Arráez is on the move again.

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported Friday that the Miami Marlins are expected to trade Arráez to the San Diego Padres in exchange for three prospects and a relief pitcher. According to Marlins insider Craig Mish, San Diego will send outfield prospects Dillon Head and Jakob Marsee, first baseman Nathan Martorella and relief pitcher Woo-Suk Go to Miami in the deal.

BREAKING: The San Diego Padres are nearing a deal to acquire second baseman Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins for a package of three prospects and a relief pitcher, a source familiar with the deal tells ESPN. The trade is in medical review but is expected to be finalized soon.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) May 4, 2024

The trade is not yet official.

Arráez, who won the AL batting title in 2022, was traded by the Minnesota Twins to Miami in January of 2023. The two-time All-Star infielder won the '23 NL batting title with the Marlins, hitting .354 in 147 games.

In 33 games this season, Arráez is hitting .299/.347/.372 with eight doubles and one triple.

Arráez plays primarily at second base but also can play at first base, third base and the corner outfield. He joins a Padres team that entered Friday night's slate 16–18 and in second place in the NL West.

1 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Twins Broadcast Rips Umpire for Yelling at Injured Byron Buxton for Slowly Walking Off Field

Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton appeared to injure himself while unsuccessfully attempting to steal a base on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox.

Buxton immediately exited the game with right knee soreness, which could mean there's yet another trip to the injured list in store for a profoundly talented player.

After getting tagged out, Buxton took his time exiting the field because, well, he wasn't feeling great. In the moment, first base umpire Rob Drake did not properly read the situation and took issue with Buxton's pace, encouraging the speedster to show some hustle.

The Twins' broadcast took note of that exchange and didn't appreciate it.

"Let's go!" — Umpire Rob Drake hollering at injured Byron Buxton to hustle off the field pic.twitter.com/atFUnHFP8J
— The Twins Almanac (@TwinsAlmanac) May 1, 2024

The Bally Sports North crew of Cory Provus, Trevor Plouffe and LaTroy Hawkins probably are right in their criticism of Drake. It wasn't entirely appropriate given the circumstances.

But on the other hand, MLB has put such an emphasis on speeding up the games that one can understand when an umpire is a little too aggressive about furthering that goal.