If you're a golf bettor like I am, wagering on the final round of this weekend's Memorial Tournament may seem like a fruitless effort. Do you really want to lay -450 odds on Scottie Scheffler to maintain his four-shot lead? Probably not.
I have good news for you. There are other ways to bet on the final round of a PGA Tour event. Consider placing a few matchup bets. Also known as "2-ball bets", these wagers are on a golfer to finish with a lower score than the golfer he's paired with.
Not only does it give us something to cheer for on Sunday, but it gives us a reason to watch some of the early tee times. I've locked in two for Sunday's round that I'll share for you in this article.
We took Nick Dunlap at +150 against Matt Fitzpatrick on Saturday and it was a sweat-free winner. I see no reason why we shouldn't go back to Dunlap again on Sunday. He has been quietly been playing some fantastic golf this tournament and I expect that to continue in the final round.
The 20-year-old is second to only Scottie Scheffler in strokes gained: approach this week, averaging +2.41 per round. He's also been hot with his putter, gaining +1.56 strokes on the green. If he can just straighten out his putter, he could go low in Round 4.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout has gained strokes in all four major areas, but he hasn't been extremely impressive in any. He lost strokes with his irons on Saturday which doesn't bode well for him heading into Sunday.
I absolutely love this bet at the +140 price tag.
We're going to fade Rory McIlroy in the final round as he tees it up with his fellow Irishman, Shane Lowry. Lowry gained +4.44 strokes with his approach play on Saturday, which was the second most of the round next to only Scheffler. Meanwhile, Rory had a tough day with his irons, losing -0.56 strokes.
This bet is simply trying to take advantage of two golfers who are trending in opposite directions. If Lowry can carry the momentum from Saturday into Sunday, he's going to be in a great spot to beat McIlroy.
With both of these bets being at plus money, we just need one to hit to walk away with a profit. If both win, we're laughing.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
We are three rounds into the Memorial Tournament and it looks like Scottie Scheffler is set to return to the winner's circle to capture his fifth win of the 2024 season.
Despite an ultra-rare triply bogey by Scheffler on the ninth hole, the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world still shot one-under par on the day to extend his lead on the field by one. If the live odds are any indication, the three golfers who are tied for second have little hope of catching him on the final day.
If you translate Scheffler's -450 live odds to implied probability, there's an 81.82% chance he wins the Memorial Tournament. Knowing Scheffler, those odds may be too long. It's tough to imagine a scenario where he coughs up his lead on Sunday.
Collin Morikawa (+1000), Sepp Straks (+1800), and Adam Hadwin (+2800) are the three golfers who sit four shots back of Scheffler at six-under par.
Xander Schauffele (+3000) and Ludvig Aberg (+4500) are the only other two golfers who have a remote chance of pulling it off. They both set at four-under par, six shots back from the Masters champion.
If you want to place a live bet on the Memorial Tournament but you don't want to go against Scheffler or lay the -450 juice on him to win, BetMGM is offering odds on "winner without Scheffler". Unless Scheffler lets the tournament slip from his hands, this will be a bet on which golfer finishes second.
If you want to get in on that market, I suggest Hadwin at +550 for a lot of the same reasons why I thought he was worth a sprinkle to win ahead of Round 3.
The Canadian has been showcasing elite ball striking so far this week, ranking third in strokes gained: approach through the first three rounds at +2.34 per round. His putter has caused him to fall behind Scheffler, but at a course like Muirfield Village, I want to take the guy who's had sharper irons than most of the field.
Pick: Hadwin (winner without Scheffler) +550
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
The first two rounds of the Memorial Tournament are in the books. It's time to look ahead to the weekend.
If you want to find out the live odds to win ahead of Round 3, as well as a couple of golfers I'm aiming at, you can find those here.
In this article, we're talking about a few Round 3 matchup bets, otherwise known as 2-ball bets. These are one-round wagers on a golfer to finish Saturday's round with a lower score than their playing partner. Let's dive into it.
If you're looking for an underdog to bet on Saturday, there's none I love more than Nick Dunlap against Matt Fitzpatrick. Dunlap has been sharp with his irons through the first two rounds, gaining an average of +2.59 strokes per round with his approach play through the first two rounds, the fourth-best in the tournament.
Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick's irons continue to be a low point of his game. He's losing -0.24 strokes per round with them in this event. His short game has dragged him into the weekend but Dunlap's irons are a lot more sustainable.
At +150, Dunlap is absolutely worth a bet to get the job done.
Rory McIlroy -185 vs. Tony Finau Prediction
If you want to bet on Rory McIlroy but if you think Scottie Scheffler has this event in the bag, you can take McIlroy to finish with a lower score than his playing partner on Saturday, Tony Finau.
Both golfers enter the weekend at T7, but Finau hasn't been playing as well as his current standing may suggest. His success has come from strong play around the greens, gaining an average of +1.52 strokes per round around the greens, which is almost unheard of. Meanwhile, he's gaining just +0.78 per round with his approach and +0.21 per round with his putting.
McIlroy is playing a much more sustainable style of golf and his irons seem to be dialed in. -185 is a hefty price to pay, but he still holds plenty of great value against Finau on Saturday.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
We are halfway through the 2024 edition of the Memorial Tournament and low and behold, the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler, has a commanding lead heading into Saturday's Round 3.
He has a three-stroke lead at nine-under par after the second round. Viktor Hovland and Adam Hadwin are tied in second place at six-under par. Keegan Bradley and Christiaan Beuidenhout round out the top five, each at five under par.
If you haven't placed a bet on the event yet or if you want some more action heading into the weekend, you've come to the right place. Let's take a look at the live odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and then I'll break down two golfers you should consider betting on before the leaders tee off on Saturday.
Scottie Scheffler enters the weekend as the -190 favorite, which means he has an implied probability of 65.52% of capturing his fifth win of the 2024 calendar year.
Ludvig Aberg +2000
Ludvig Aberg is a driving and ball-striking machine, but that's been his weakness through the first two rounds. It's his short game that has helped him sit at four-under-par, good for solo sixth place ahead of Saturday's round. He has gained over a stroke per round both around the greens and on the greens so far in this event.
There are questions surrounding the health of his knee, which could be the cause of his ball-striking not being as sharp as we normally see it. If his knee holds up and he starts striking the ball on Saturday and Sunday as well as he can, he's one of the few people in the top 10 who have the firepower to catch Scheffler.
He's five strokes off the lead ahead of Round 3.
Adam Hadwin +2500
Adam Hadwin is T2 ahead of Round 3 but is still available at 25-1. The Canadian is an interesting golfer to handicap because he doesn't have any kind of consistent form, but when he randomly finds his game in a tournament, he contends. To illustrate that point, just consider the fact he has only finished inside the top 30 five times in 2024, but those five finishes were T14, T6, T4, T5, and solo 10th. When his game is on, it's on.
We could be seeing another example of that at the Memorial. He is second to only Scheffler in strokes gained: approach in this tournament, averaging +3.22 strokes per round with his irons heading into the weekend.
Don't underestimate the Canadian. He's worth a sprinkle at his current live odds.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
DUBLIN, Ohio — The last time Scottie Scheffler walked off a golf course feeling bad about the way he played was . . . well, he couldn’t quite remember on Friday.
Scheffler shot 73 that day at Valhalla Golf Club, the first time in 2024 that he failed to shoot par or better. Must be rough.
The second round of the Memorial Tournament was more of the same for Scheffler, who has been on an impressive roll that sees him near the top of leaderboards nearly every time he plays.
Scheffler birdied the 18th hole at Muirfield Village Golf Club to shoot 68, which followed a first-round 67, giving him a three-shot advantage through 36 holes at Jack Nicklaus’s tournament.
“I try to forget those days, and so I'm pretty fortunate right now that I can't really remember,’’ Scheffler said when asked about those rare tough days. “The only one I can really remember was Saturday at the PGA, but that was another caddie, so we'll blame him for that.’’
But the bottom line is there have been few poor outings for Scheffler all year. He’s won four times, including the Masters and the Players Championship. He finished second at two recent starts, including the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. His “worst’’ event in the last three months was the tie for eighth at the PGA Championship.
And now he’s leading a $20 million Signature Event.
“I think at this point you're almost expecting him to do those things, so it's almost like I can only do myself and can control what I can control,’’ said Ludvig Aberg, who played with Scheffler the first two rounds and is in sixth place, five shots back. “Obviously he's playing very, very good golf and it doesn't look very difficult when he's playing, but all I can do is try to keep up and make sure I'm not too far behind, I guess.’’
Scheffler is making it look easy, even if he disagrees.
“No, easy is definitely not the right word,’’ Scheffler said laughing. “I feel like what I love about this game is how difficult it is. I love coming out here and competing against the best players in the world on the best golf courses, and this is obviously a pretty challenging track. I really just love competing out here, and I don't really think about whether or not it's easy or hard, and some days I play good and some days I don't, and outside of that, I'm just out here trying to compete.
“Sometimes it feels really good and then sometimes it doesn't feel as good. I don't really know how to describe it other than that. I'm going to try not to really think about it much, to be honest with you.’’
Scheffler is three shots ahead of first-round leader Adam Hadwin, defending Memorial champion Viktor Hovland and four ahead of Keegan Bradley and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Rory McIlroy is six shots back in a tie for seventh.
The tournament is one of three Signature Events—along with the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational—that has a 36-hole cut, which came at 148, 4-over par, with 51 players in the 73-player field advancing.
Among those who missed the cut were Jordan Spieth, defending U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay and Rickie Fowler, who shot 82 on Friday.
Scheffler has his fifth 36-hole lead of the year and is atop the field in strokes gained approach to the green and strokes gained tee to green. He’s trying to become the first player since Justin Thomas in 2017 to win five times in a season.
DUBLIN, Ohio — There should be plenty of good memories to draw on, especially what was perhaps the biggest victory of his career. But Billy Horschel’s mind drifted elsewhere Thursday and it’s been on his mind all week at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
Despite winning the Memorial Tournament here in 2022, Horschel thought only of the 84 he shot in the opening round a year ago, a day that he said had him at the lowest point of his career.
Playing as the defending champion, Horschel said he was hitting shots from places he couldn’t believe, lost in the abyss of a swing change—and later, he learned, an equipment issue—that saw him part of an emotional, tearful news conference afterward.
“My confidence is the lowest it’s been in my entire career,” he said that day.
Things were much better during this opening round as Horschel shot a 3-under-par 69 at the Memorial Tournament, where Adam Hadwin led with 66 and No. 1-ranked Scottie Scheffer was a shot back after a 65. Reigning PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele shot 68.
“Every hole I played this week, I’ve been thinking, God, how bad I played that hole on Thursday last year,” Horschel said. “The last couple of days I’ve been thinking about it and even today, I was nervous waking up because obviously I’ve won here and I’ve played fairly well here in previous years.
“But that 84 still lingers a little bit. It’s that one little thing I needed to get over. And to play well today, hit quality golf shots and hopefully get over the hump of what happened here last year. There’s a little scar tissue from last year. Hopefully I got over that today.”
Horschel began the process of building back after that interview. He received an outpouring of support from fans and fellow players, and the low point became a turning point.
He dropped outside of the top 90 in the Official World Golf Ranking earlier this year then returned to winning ways by capturing the Corales Puntacana Championship, an opposite-field event that was played the same week as the RBC Heritage.
It was his eighth PGA Tour victory and first since capturing the Memorial in 2002.
“I think any tournament you win, when you come back, you want to have a respectable showing,” Horschel, 37, said. “Obviously the goal is to win, but you want to have a respectable showing as defending champ. Coming in, I had played some really bad golf. I had hit golf shots that I just haven't hit in my entire PGA Tour career. So that was fresh in my mind and that was a concern coming here. It was just sort of the tipping point.
“Shooting 84 when you're defending champ, it was sort of the lowest of the low points for me, and then from there, I can start moving on, and as I've said since, I had talked to my team about where my confidence was coming into this event last year, but to sort of share how—where my confidence was and share how vulnerable I was, just impromptu, after being asked a question, I think that next morning I woke up and I felt relief, just sort of getting it off my chest and everything, and then from there, I could sort of start moving forward again.”
The day was rough. Horschel made no birdies, six bogeys and three doubles. He had been struggling with his swing for months and it all went horribly bad that day.
The impromptu session with reporters actually helped him turn things around but not before he also discovered an equipment issue that he and his coach, Todd Anderson, had missed.
Horschel had testing done that showed the lie angle of his irons were as much as 3 degrees too upright, which caused his shots to go left. That’s why the cut he kept trying to hit wasn’t working. The work that he had been doing on his swing seemed so good and yet the ball wasn’t going where it was supposed to go. And now he had some answers.
“Then it was just some of the emotional side,” he said. “It was like saying, hey, I've played some really bad golf this year and I've hit some shots that I'm not accustomed to and where I've been over the last 10 years on the PGA Tour, I'm not where I want to be. I don't feel like I'm anywhere close to that.
“It really came down to the lie angles, and then once that got figured out right before the U.S. Open, it was more or less just getting rid of all the scar tissue, getting rid of all the bad shots that I had hit from January to early June and replacing those with quality shots and believing that we can swing a club again.”
It took some time, but Horschel had a fourth-place finish in August at the Wyndham Championship. That wasn’t good enough to get into the 70-player FedEx Cup playoffs—but Horschel played three times on the DP World Tour.
He did struggle with three missed cuts earlier this year before finding some form prior to his victory. That win helped him get a start at the Wells Fargo Championship via FedEx Cup points. He got into the Memorial on a sponsor’s exemption because he was not otherwise eligible for the signature event.
But Horschel has played well enough to get into next week’s U.S. Open via FedEx points and he’s in a good spot on the leaderboard here—and in a far better place both literally and figuratively than a year ago. He had five birdies and two bogeys in his opening round.
“I think I'm in a good position with three rounds to go,” he said. “Hopefully, I can just focus on hitting quality golf shots, be positive out there on every shot. As you guys know, this course requires a lot of precision. When the wind's blowing, it's even tougher.
“I never want to get too far out in front of my skis, but I think I'm in a really good spot where I am mentally and physically to continue to push forward to this weekend and see (if I can) do something special again.”
If you don't have the patience to wait for all four rounds of a PGA Tour event to conclude to find out if you've won your bet, or if you just want to make watching the first round more exciting, than betting on who will be the first-round leader may be the move for you.
You can find my favorite full-tournament outright picks in my betting preview here, but in this article, we're going to focus on who's going to be leading after Thursday's opening round.
Collin Morikawa has been trending in the right direction lately, finishing T4 at the PGA Championship and then solo fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he gained strokes in all four major areas. He struggled through February and March but now it seems like not only are his irons back in form, but his short game has been great as well. He has gained strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts in individual stroke play events.
Morikawa has also had plenty of success at Muirfield Village. He won the Workday Charity Open here in 2020 when the course hosted back-to-back events due to the COVID-19 schedule and then followed it up with a solo second finish here in 2021.
If we're going to bet on anyone to be the first-round leader, we need to look to see how they have scored in opening rounds this season and Morikawa passes that test with flying colors. Only Scottie Scheffler has a better Round 1 scoring average than Morikawa, who has an average opening round score of 68.08. That's by far his best average score amongst all four rounds.
He's averaging a score of 70.50 in Round 2, 69.70 in Round 3, and 71.00 in Round 4. That paints the clear picture that if you want to bet on the 27-year old, the time to do it is on Thursdays.
Pick: Collin Morikawa First Round Leader +1600
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
DUBLIN, Ohio — Jack Nicklaus wanted to do right by the PGA Tour. So he went along with the plan to move his Memorial Tournament to the week before the U.S. Open, even if it was something he would prefer not to do.
Now in its 49th year, Nicklaus’s tournament that was first played at Muirfield Village Golf Club in 1976 has traditionally—but not always—been played two weeks prior to the U.S. Open and in the week following Memorial Day.
The PGA Tour sought to move it as part of its signature event series. And Nicklaus said it’s a matter that will continue to be discussed.
“We would prefer the other week,” Nicklaus said Tuesday during a news conference in advance of the tournament. “However, we are here this week because the Tour asked us to help them out. They said they had a thing they wanted to do and that the players had asked for and that would we help it out, and we said yes, that we would do that this week.
“But we said we would review it after this tournament and we'll figure out how we're going to settle the schedule after that, and I said that discussion is under way.”
The Memorial is one of eight $20 million signature events the Tour put in place for this year with a qualification process that sees preceding events as one of the ways to get a spot in the smaller fields.
The Charles Schwab Challenge and the RBC Canadian Open kept a separate FedEx Cup points list for the top five players not otherwise qualified to earn their way into the Memorial field.
The idea, also, was to not leave regular events “stranded” between two signature events or a major championship. The Travelers Championship, the last signature event of the year, will follow the U.S. Open.
Nicklaus, 84, said that presented a problem for him personally. The Golden Bear, who won 18 major championships among his 73 PGA Tour titles, always preferred an off week prior to a major.
“Let's put it this way. When I played, I would rarely play a week before any major championship,” Nicklaus said. “So I'm asked to be part of putting on a golf tournament in a week that I would never play. That, to me, is the essential part from my standpoint.”
Although the Memorial name is used to signify honoring a player in the game—this year it is LPGA and World Golf Hall of Famer Juli Inkster—Nicklaus said that date has often been tied to the holiday as well.
“Yesterday, was normally a very big day gallery-wise for us because it was Memorial Day, and we had maybe a thousand people here yesterday,” he said. “From the sponsor's standpoint, I think that they get into board meetings and kids' graduations and so forth, so that's maybe not as advantageous.
“But that won't make any difference. We're going to have a good tournament this week either way, in spite of all the different things. And as I say, we did that as a favor and the Tour asked us to do that, and we said yes. So we've always been a supporter of the Tour. We want to try to continue to support what is best for the Tour, but we also want to support what's best for the Memorial Tournament. So that is to be determined.”
The Tour has said it will take this summer to review the signature events. Scheduling will be studied as well as field sizes. The original intent was to have fields capped at 80 players, which has happened only at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Most have been in the low 70s and could be filled out.
How a change to accommodate proper qualification as well as not leaving tournaments alone on the calendar would also have to be considered.
The PGA Tour heads to Muirfield Village for this week's signature event, the Memorial Tournament. All the best golfers on Tour will tee it up at Muirfield as they prepare for next week's U.S. Open.
Attempting to predict the winner is one thing, but how about predicting the exact final score of the winner along with the exact final score of the top 10 golfers in the field? That's what I'm going to attempt to do in this article.
We've seen a wide range of winning scores at Muirfield Village over the years. Even over the past decade, we've had a winning score as high as -7 like Viktor Hovland last year and as low as -19 like Patrick Cantlay in 2019. That makes it difficult to predict the winning score this time around, but I'm going to guess it'll creep into the double-digits at finish at 11 under par.
Scottie Scheffler (+350) Score Prediction: -11
Do you really want to bet against Scottie Scheffler this week? I certainly don't. The fiasco in Louisville is behind him and now he's coming into this event off a week of rest. Not only that, but he has finished third at this event the last two years he's competed in it. It's time for him to reestablish himself in the winner's circle once again.
Rory McIlroy (+900) Score Prediction: -7
Rory McIlroy only has one top 5 finish at the Memorial Tournament. He's had good results, but nothing crazy. Muirfield Village takes come creativity at times and McIlroy doesn't always have that ability. I expect another good but not great result from him this week.
Xander Schauffele (+900) Score Prediction: -9
Schauffele is another golfer, like McIlroy, who hasn't had great results at Muirfield but it's tough not to expect something special from him this week now that he's fresh off his first major victory. There's a chance that big win got the weight off his shoulders and he may just go on a run and rattle off a few more wins. He has statistically been the second-best golfer on the Tour this season.
Collin Morikawa (+1400) Score Prediction: -10
Morikawa has found his game once again. He found his short game in April and has now found his iron play in May. All signs point to him trending in the right direction and now he returns to a course that he's already won at once in his career. This could be his week but I think he may fall just short.
Viktor Hovland (+1800) Score Prediction: -8
The defending Memorial Tournament champion is returning to Muirfield Village in good form after finishing solo third at the PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Did he find his swing again or was that an anomaly performance? We'll find out more about Hovland's 2024 performance this week.
Ludvig Aberg (+2000) Score Prediction: -1
It might be time to sell a bit of stock in Ludvig Aberg. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship, is battling a nagging knee injury, and now goes to a course that doesn't exactly fit his style of play. I don't think he'll be in contention on the weekend.
Justin Thomas (+2500) Score Prediction: -5
Just like Morikawa and Hovland, Thomas is another golfer who had a tough first half of the season but may have found something after finishing T5, T21 and T8 in his last three starts. He finished runner-up at Muirfield Village in 2020.
Patrick Cantlay (+2800) Score Prediction: +1
Cantlay has won this event twice in his year and it's historically been a great course fit for him, but his game is trending in the wrong direction. He has gone T23, T29 and T53 in his last three starts. I think he's going to finish above par this weekend, but if there is a course where he can turn his game around, it's Muirfield Village.
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000) Score Prediction: E
Matsuyama's peak came in February and March and now he seems to be on a downward spiral, finishing T38 and T35 in his last two starts. Much like Cantlay, he's a past winner of this event but his recent metrics make me think this won't be the week for him.
Jordan Spieth (+4000) Score Prediction: +3
Jordan Spieth has been in horrific form. He hasn't finished 28th or better since the Valero Texas Open in early April. His ball striking is bad, his short game is out of sorts, and he can't hit a putt. I'm all out on Spieth this week.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Robert MacIntyre was victorious North of the Border and now the PGA Tour heads to Muirfield Village for the penultimate signature event of the season, the Memorial Tournament.
The top golfers on the PGA Tour will be competing this week in preparation for next week's U.S. Open, meaning the No. 1 golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler, is back in the field and understandably set as the significant favorite.
Let's dive into everything you need to know to bet on this event, including my best bets.
Scottie Scheffler: The No. 1-ranked golfer in the world returns to action this week after finishing T2 at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. He has yet to win the Memorial Tournament but finished third at this event the last two times he's played here. If he even brings his "B" game, he's going to win.
Viktor Hovland: The defending champion is going to be in an interesting spot this week. Not only is he heading to a course where he'll feel comfortable, but he's coming off a solo third at the PGA Championship, his best finish of the season. If he can bring that momentum into this week, he has a chance to go back-to-back in Muirfield Village.
Memorial Tournament best bets
Corey Conners +5500
Corey Conners made a run at last week's RBC Canadian Open, finishing solo sixth. He's quietly been playing some good golf, finishing T13 or better in three of his last four starts along with a T26 finish at the PGA Championship. In his last three starts, he has been striking the ball better than almost anyone else on Tour, gaining at least +1.13 true strokes per round with his irons.
The most notable change has been his putting. Conners gained +1.73 strokes putting per round last week, one of the best putting performances of his career. If he finally figured something out on the greens, he's going to get his third PGA Tour win sooner rather than later.
As a cherry on top, he finished 13th here in 2022, so he's proven he can play well at Muirfield. He's my favorite bet on the board this week at 55-1 odds.
Tom Kim +7000
Tom Kim has had a down season, but now might be the time to invest. He has improved in each of his last five starts going T52, T47, T26, T24, and then T4 at last week's RBC Canadian Open. Last week was by far his best performance of the season so if you want big odds on a guy whose game has consistently trended in the right direction, Kim could be your guy.
Some times you just have to take a shot on a golfer with long odds who's a horse for a course. Billy Horschel won this event in 2022 and has two other two other top-10 finishes here over the past decade in 2020 and 2019.
He has also been statistically much better this season than he's been getting credit for, ranking 11th in total strokes gained heading into this week. Also, at a difficult course like Muirfield, it doesn't hurt to bet on a guy who's 16th in scrambling percentage and 11th in bogey avoidance.
He's worth a bet this week at 80-1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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