After a week off, the NBA returns for the Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics matchup in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.
Boston – the favorite in the series – comes into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite after Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and company rolled through the Eastern Conference, going 12-2 to reach the Finals.
The Mavericks have been a little more battle-tested, but they flexed their muscle in the Western Conference Finals to close the Minnesota Timberwolves out in five games behind four games of 32 points or more from Luka Doncic.
Dallas has struggled in Game 1s in the Jason Kidd era, going 1-5 straight up, but 6.5 points is quite the spread for an opening game in the Finals. Can Boston, who had the No. 1 net rating in the regular season – and so far in the playoffs – show why it’s the favorite on Thursday?
Here’s our full betting preview with the latest odds, key players to watch and a best bet for Game 1:
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Mavericks Injury Report
Celtics Injury Report
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic: The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games. Luka really came on in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in all four of Dallas’ wins, and he is going to be the main focus for Boston’s defense in Game 1.
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Jayson Tatum has not shot the ball well in the postseason – 44.2 percent from the field, 29.0 percent from 3 – but he’s made an impact elsewhere averaging over 10 rebounds and five assists per game. Tatum didn’t play his best in his first NBA Finals appearance in 2022, but the Celtics star has a better team around him – and that experience to lean on – in this series.
Boston deserves a little more respect for its run to the Finals, even if it faced a few banged-up teams along the way.
The C’s needed just 14 games to get through the East, winning in blowouts against Miami and Cleveland as well as taking three games against the Indiana Pacers where the Pacers had a 90 percent win probability or higher in the fourth quarter of three of the four games.
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
I’m worried about Dallas’ role players and whether or not they’ll make enough shots for key defenders like Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington to stay on the floor for the majority of the game. Boston, on the other hand, is going to be even deeper with Kristaps Porzingis likely back in action.
I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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At long last, the NBA Finals are just a day away, and I’m ready to lock in three plays for Game 1 – all of which end up being on the Boston side.
Earlier this week, I made my official prediction for this series (Boston Celtics in 6), and like many NBA fans, I’m ready for this series between Boston and the Dallas Mavericks to start.
This season, I’ve bet on the NBA every day that there have been games, and while we’re not positive on the year at the moment, a Celtics preseason future could get us there – depending upon how these Finals go.
We’re starting strong in Game 1 with three plays – two props and one side – with Boston entering the game as a 6.5-point favorite.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jaylen Brown has been terrific in the playoffs, averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range.
Brown has been much more efficient than Jayson Tatum, and he finds himself with a points prop that is four points lower than his co-star in Game 1.
I love the OVER here for Brown, who has cleared 22.5 points in nine of his 14 playoff games, including all four of his matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the return of Kristaps Porzingis could eat into Brown’s usage, I don’t expect KP to return to his normal role in his first game back from a calf injury. Brown has played a ton of minutes, clearing 40 in three of his last five games, and he’s taken at least 17 shots in 11 of 14 games this postseason.
JB has some serious value at this number ahead of Game 1.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit
Jrue Holiday may not win an ECF MVP or Finals MVP, but he has been a massive difference maker in his first season in Boston.
Holiday’s defensive prowess makes him a staple in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation, and dating back to the second round he’s really stuffed the stat sheet overall.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game over his last seven games, clearing 22.5 PRA in six of those contests.
I imagine Holiday will draw the assignment on either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, and he should play heavy minutes in Game 1. Betting on Boston props is a little volatile since we don’t know Porzingis’ usage, but this number has dropped significantly for Holiday compared to the 25.5 and 26.5’s that we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The only NBA champion on the Boston roster should continue his strong play in Game 1.
Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
Boston – the best team in the NBA all season long – has been disrespected in my eyes entering this series. It went 12-2 on its run to the Finals and easily posted the best net rating of any team in the playoffs.
I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The reunion between Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics won't be the only meeting of a player with their former team during the 2024 NBA Finals. Kristaps Porzingis will also be up against his old squad, having played for the Dallas Mavericks back from 2019 to '21.
On Monday, Fanduel's Chandler Parsons suggested there was some bad blood between Porzingis and Luka Dončić stemming from their time as a tandem in Dallas.
Dončić addressed the claims from Parsons on Tuesday, indicating he and Porzingis have a good relationship, despite their on-court efforts not yielding much success, and added that he's scarcely ever even spoken to Parsons.
"I've talked to Chandler Parsons maybe twice in my life, so I don't know how he would know... But me and KP have a good relationship," said Dončić, via Joey Mistretta of ClutchPoints.
Chandler Parsons previously said that Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis don’t have a good relationship.
Porzingis joined the Mavs and was paired alongside Dončić with the goal of making an elite offensive tandem. Expectations were not quite met, however, and the plug was pulled on the experiment after a little more than two seasons.
They've both since gone on to find success, with Porzingis playing a vital role for the Celtics as they earned the league's best record in the regular season and Dončić emerging as arguably the sport's best player and leading his Mavericks to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2011.
Porzingis was also asked about the situation with Dončić in Dallas, though he didn't want to spend too much time on the topic.
"It didn't work out. I think it was–yeah. I don't know, I'm not even thinking about that right now. I'm focused on the job ahead. We can talk about that later," said Porzingis, via Noa Dalzell of SB Nation.
Kristaps Porzingis didn't want to get into the weeds of his relationship with Luka / his Mavericks tenure today:
"It didn't work out. I think it was - yeah. I don't know, I'm not even thinking about that right now. I'm focused on the job ahead. We can talk about that later." pic.twitter.com/GU2S0vrVAs
There are plenty of ways to bet on the 2024 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, but wagering on the NBA Finals MVP may be one of the most exciting.
Oddsmakers have set the NBA Finals market since the start of the playoffs, and one constant has been All-Star Jayson Tatum leading the way. Tatum, who is now -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook, is the best player on the best team in the NBA, and with Boston favored to win this series pretty heavily, he’s the odds-on favorite to take home NBA Finals MVP.
Both Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are in the top five of the odds to win the Finals MVP, but I’m focusing strictly on Boston players to bet in this market in this article, as you prepare your card for the Finals.
In terms of value, Jaylen Brown at +650 is the best bet on the board.
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, getting the nod over Tatum, who was heavily favored, and it’s certainly possible that this could happen again.
Based on implied probability, Brown has just a 13.33 percent chance to win Finals MVP while Tatum is all the way up at 53.49 percent.
However, their numbers aren’t all that different this postseason.
PPG
RPG
APG
FG%
3P%
Jayson Tatum
26.0
10.4
5.9
44.2
29.0
Jaylen Brown
25.0
6.1
2.6
54.1
36.8
Tatum has definitely done more outside of scoring the ball, but he's also shooting significantly worse than Brown, who has shot 50 percent or better from the field in 11 of his 14 games this postseason.
Does a big scoring series by Brown -- with Tatum struggling from 3 this postseason -- shift the odds in his favor? Given how quickly Boston has worked through its other opponents, I wouldn't be shocked if one or two big games swing this market toward Brown.
Jayson Tatum (-115)
Tatum is an obvious choice to win this award, although you’re not getting a massive return on your investment if he does win.
Even though his shot isn’t falling the way he’d like, Tatum has stepped up on the glass – which was huge with Porzingis out for the majority of the playoffs – and as a passer.
Tatum doesn’t get a ton of credit for his passing ability, but he’s averaged over 5.0 assists per game in each of his last three playoff runs, reaching the NBA Finals twice in that stretch.
If Tatum and Brown play similarly, the market is suggesting that Tatum has the edge, and he’d likely be the choice to win this award. Given his usage, especially as a passer, Tatum has a path to this award as long as he matches Brown’s scoring output.
Jrue Holiday (+5000)
My dark horse pick for the NBA Finals MVP award on Boston is point guard Jrue Holiday, who was terrific against Indiana and has been on a heater over his last few playoff games.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game since Game 3 against Cleveland in the second round. He’s shooting an impressive 59.2 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from 3 in that stretch (seven games) while also taking on the toughest defensive assignment on a nightly basis.
That’s where Holiday has an interesting edge, as he could win this award if he shuts down Luka Doncic. We’ve seen it in the past (Andre Iguodala in 2015 and Kawhi Leonard in 2014) where the player tasked with guarding LeBron James earned the Finals MVP award.
It’s not a foolproof path for Holiday, but there’s certainly a chance he wins this, especially if Tatum and Brown don’t put together massive offensive numbers in the series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics will face off in the 2024 NBA Finals. While many of the Celtics were on the team that went to the 2022 NBA Finals, some are making their Finals debut. The Mavericks, on the other hand are mostly made of Finals novices—with the very obvious exception of Kyrie Irving who hit one of the greatest shots in NBA Finals history against the Golden State Warriors in 2016.
Here are all the players making their NBA Finals debut this year.
Luka Dončić
It took him a few years, but he finally got here with the help of a ragtag bunch of castoffs that only a home PA announcer could love.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Hardaway came to Dallas with Kristaps Porzingis and refused to leave. Tim Hardaway's son has now been in the NBA for over a decade and has been a valuable contributor off the bench for many of them. He's only played 13 minutes a night in 10 postseason games this year, but he'll be ready if they need him.
Jaden Hardy
Hardy has averaged just 4.2 points per game in his first postesason, but he's appeared in 14 of the Mavericks 17 playoff games and shot 40% from three. For a 21-year old taken in the second round of the draft who is only in his second season, that's a pretty good contribution.
Dwight Powell
Powell was drafted by the Charlotte Bobcats in June 2014. He was traded to Cleveland two weeks later and then traded to Boston in August. In December he was part of the trade that sent Rajon Rondo to Dallas. While Rondo was gone before the team was eliminated from the playoffs, Powell has been there ever since.
Josh Green
Green was Dallas's first round selection in 2020. He's become a regular contributor and has played in all 17 playoff games, averaging 17 minutes a game for the Mavericks this year.
Dereck Lively II
Lively slipped to the 12th pick in the 2023 draft where he was taken by the Oklahoma City Thunder. He was almost immediately flipped to Dallas, where he contributed whenever healthy. He's come off the bench throughout the playoffs to give the Mavericks an average of eight points, seven rebounds and a block every night.
Dante Exum
Exum was the fifth pick in the 2014 draft and spent his first five seasons in Utah before being traded to Cleveland. Then, he went and played in Spain for two years before returning to the NBA with Dallas. He's given them brief minutes off the bench in the postseason and provided one of the most exciting moments of the entire season.
Maxi Kleber
Kleber was undrafted and signed by the Mavericks in 2017. He's been a decent 3-point shooter and played 20+ minutes a game for the last six seasons. He suffered a shoulder injury in the first round, but returned for Game 5 against the Timberwolves.
A.J. Lawson
Lawson has spent time with the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves before signing with Dallas in 2022. He appeared in 42 games for the Mavericks this season.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Prosper was drafted by the Kings and immediately traded to the Mavericks for cash. He bounced between the Mavericks and Texas Legends as a rookie, averaging three points and two rebounds in 40 NBA games. He has played one minute in the playoffs.
PJ Washington
After many wasted years in Charlotte, he was traded to the Mavericks on February 8th. This was his first trip to the postseason and he and Daniel Gafford celebrated their ascension on Thursday night.
Daniel Gafford
Gafford spent time in Chicago and Washington before Dallas rescued him the same day they picked up Washington. They have both started every game for Dallas during the postseason.
Kristaps Porziņģis
What a journey. Drafted fourth overall by the New York Knicks in 2015, Porziņģis was considered a unicorn. After suffering an ACL injury, he was traded—along with Tim Hardaway Jr.—to the Dallas Mavericks where people thought he could be the perfect second banana to a young Luka Dončić. After two first round exits in Dallas he was traded to the Washington Wizards. Then, he was traded again to the Celtics ahead of this season and played really well, but injuries have again limited him in the postseason. He should make his Finals debut.
Oshae Brissett
Brissett made his postseason debut with the Celtics after starting his career with Toronto and Indiana. Despite the lack of experience, he managed to make headlines by tweeting and deleting a message to Miami Heat fans early in the postseason. He has appeared in two of the Celtics last three games.
Svi Mykhailiuk
The Ukranian was taken by the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round of the 2018 draft using a pick that the Denver Nuggets originally traded in 2013. He spent time in Detroit, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto, New York and Charlotte before signing with Boston in the offseason. His one basket during the playoffs was a 3-pointer.
Neemias Queta
The 7-foot Portugese center was taken by the Kings in 2021 and signed with Boston during the 2023 offseason. He's been on the floor twice for Boston during the postseason.
Xavier Tillman Sr.
The Grand Rapids native was drafted by the Sacramento Kings out of Michigan State before he was traded to Memphis. He played 30 minutes a game during the Grizzlies first round loss to the Lakers last year. He was traded to Boston at the trade deadline and is playing a bit during this Celtics run so he should see the court in the Finals.
Jaden Springer
Springer was drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers late in the first round of the 2021 draft. The Celtics acquired him at the trade deadline.
Jordan Walsh
Walsh was drafted in the second round of the 2023 draft by the Sacramento Kings and traded to Boston in exchange for Colby Jones. Walsh has appeared in nine regular season games and two postseason games so far.
Boston Celtics star Kristaps Porzingis exited Monday's Game 4 against the Miami Heat before halftime after sustaining a non-contact calf injury. It could be a little while before he's back in action for the Celtics.
According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Porzingis is expected to miss several games with a right soleus strain. The team announced Tuesday that the 28-year-old would miss Game 5 against the Heat, and it seems that he'll be unavailable to start the second round, should Boston advance.
A win in Game 5 on Wednesday would secure the Celtics a spot in the Eastern Conference semifinals, where a matchup against the Orlando Magic or Cleveland Cavaliers would await. It's not clear if Porzingis would be able to return in time for that series.
Porzingis's injury is a similar one to the ailment which has kept Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo out of commission thus far into the playoffs. Antetokounmpo has not played since April 9, when he sustained the injury in a regular-season game against Boston.
Porzingis played 14 minutes on Monday before exiting with the calf injury. He logged seven points and three rebounds before departing. He's averaging 12.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in the first round against Miami, including his numbers from Game 4.
