Game 3 of the NBA Finals is crucial for the Dallas Mavericks, as a loss would all be seal their fate against the Boston Celtics in this series.
Trailing 2-0, Dallas is looking to avoid the dreaded 3-0 series deficit -- something no team has ever come back from in a seven-game series in the history of the league.
On the bright side for Dallas, oddsmakers have favored Luka Doncic and company at home in Game 3.
The spread in Game 3 has moved since Kristaps Porzingis was diagnosed with a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon on Tuesday.
Porzingis is officially questionable for Game 3, and oddsmakers have moved Dallas from -2 to -2.5 in this game since the Porzingis injury was announced.
Boston has fared well without Porzingis this postseason, but he clearly makes the Celtics a better team, especially after dropping 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the field in Game 1.
Can Dallas pick up a win at home to keep its chances to win the Finals alive?
Boston Celtics on the Road
Boston has dominated on the road in the playoffs, going 6-0 straight up against the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers. Can it stay perfect against the Mavericks?
The C's are 22-22-3 against the spread on the road in the 2023-24 season overall, so their playoff performance has been even better.
Boston Celtics as Underdogs
This is just the fourth time this season that the Celtics are underdogs, and it's the first time in five months that they have been in this spot.
Boston is 1-2 against the spread as an underdog in the 2023-24 season. All of those games have come on the road.
Dallas Mavericks at Home
So far this season, Dallas is 25-24 against the spread at home, but that number is slightly better as a home favorite.
The Mavs are 19-17 against the spread as home favorites, although they have lost games at home in every series so far this postseason.
Teams Down 0-2 in Game 3
Dallas is down 0-2 in this series, but there is an interesting trend dating back to 2005 for these teams entering Game 3.
NBA teams down 0-2 at home since 2005:
• 91-47-1 first half ATS • 66-70-3 full game ATS
The first half trend has been even lately though, going just 13-14-1 1H ATS since 2020-21 (3-4 this year) pic.twitter.com/ecnq7LaJoo
However, the Celtics are the best team in the NBA against the spread in the first half this season, so bettors may want to be careful about having to lay points with Dallas, who is a slight favorite, in Game 3.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks 105–98 in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night, yet any good feelings about taking a 2–0 series lead were somewhat quelled due to the uncertain health status of the team's star center.
During the fourth quarter, Kristaps Porziņģis hurt his leg going for a loose ball against Dallas guard P.J. Washington. He stepped awkwardly, hopped and fell down. He then ran up and down the floor a few times with his leg clearly bothering him. At the next dead ball he was replaced by Al Horford and never returned. Here's the play where he was injured.
Porziņģis remained on the bench, appearing to stretch his calf. The interesting thing here is that he appears to be stretching his left calf. He just missed a month of the postseason with a right calf injury. He returned for Game 1 and was awesome.
If Porziņģis has a new injury to deal with, it could make the Finals interesting. Dallas lost the first games of their first and second round series and were tied 2–2 in both before eventually winning. If Porziņģis is hobbled, the Mavericks have a chance to even the series in Dallas. Boston fans might be holding their breath waiting for an update, but coach Joe Mazzulla is optimistic, saying after the game that he had "zero concern" about Porziņģis's health status.
Neither team shot the ball particularly well in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals, but it was the Boston Celtics who emerged victorious over the Dallas Mavericks, securing a 2–0 lead in the series following Sunday's 105–98 win.
Jrue Holiday led the charge offensively for the Celtics, proving particularly effective from in around the rim as he scored a team-high 26 points on 11 for 14 shooting. Jaylen Brown played prolific two-way ball once again, providing lockdown defense while also contributing his share on offense with 21 points.
Jayson Tatum's shooting woes continued, but as has often been the case during the postseason, Boston's depth was able to help overcome that. Tatum shot 6 for 22 from the field, but was an excellent facilitator as he racked up 12 assists and added nine rebounds.
Dallas didn't go down quietly though. The Mavs cut a 14-point deficit into just five with around one minute left, but an emphatic Derrick White block put a stopper on the comeback hopes and capped off the win for Boston.
Kristaps Porzingis, who made his return to the starting lineup on Sunday, exited during the fourth quarter after suffering an apparent leg injury. He remained in the game briefly before checking out for Al Horford and did not return. His status will be something to monitor going forward.
For the Mavericks, it often felt that if Luka Doncic wasn't scoring, the team's offense simply wasn't functioning. Doncic provided 32 of Dallas's 98 points, shooting 12 for 21 from the field despite not being at full strength. Although he registered a triple-double in just the second NBA Finals game of his career, he also had eight turnovers in the loss, struggling to take care of the ball against the stalwart Boston defense.
Apart from Doncic, the rest of the team shot 26 for 59 (44%), including a woeful 2 for 17 (11.7%) showing from three-point range. Kyrie Irving had another lackluster performance with 16 points and six assists, marking his second consecutive game without making a single three.
The series will shift to Dallas for Games 3 and 4, and the Mavericks will need to get the job done on Wednesday if they want to avoid the perilous 3–0 deficit, which no team has ever overcome in NBA history.
Game 2 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and there are only so many more days that we can bet on the NBA this season, so why not take advantage of them with a few player prop picks?
Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks ended up being a blowout, but it was an educational game in terms of how these teams are going to match up.
We learned that Kristaps Porzingis was going to come off the bench, Boston was going to play Luka Doncic straight up, and Dallas’ lob threats weren't going to have an easy time at the rim.
There is one prop I took in Game 1 – Jrue Holiday’s points, rebounds, and assists – that I’m going back to on Sunday night, along with two more plays to round out the betting card.
Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
Kristaps Porzingis came off the bench for Boston in Game 1 and dominated the game in the 21 minutes that he played, shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc.
While he didn’t play his usual minutes, Porzingis still attempted the second-most shots on the team and was a clear focal point on the Boston offense.
I’m eyeing his 3-point prop in Game 2, as he’s had a ton of success against Dallas in this market this season. In his lone regular-season meeting with the Mavs, KP drilled four of his eight shots from beyond the arc.
Dallas switched a lot in Game 1, giving Porzingis some favorable matchups to shoot over smaller defenders. If that continues, I imagine he keeps letting it fly from 3. KP shot 37.5 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Jrue Holiday did a little bit of everything in Game 1, finishing with 12 points (4-for-9 shooting), eight rebounds, and five assists to clear his PRA prop of 22.5.
Oddsmakers are setting this at the same number in Game 2, and I’ll gladly take the OVER again on the Celtics point guard.
Holiday has now cleared this line in every game since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals and seven of his last eight contests while averaging 16.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game over that stretch.
There aren’t a ton of shots to go around in the Boston offense, but Holiday still got a decent share in Game 1 and did a lot of the dirty work on the glass as well. Until he starts missing this number consistently, he’s a must-bet for me in Game 2.
PJ Washington OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-135)
Dallas forward PJ Washington had a big game on the glass in Game 1 with the Celtics spreading out the Dallas defense.
Washington finished with eight rebounds in the loss, the ninth time in 12 times that he’s cleared this total (dating back to the start of the second round against Oklahoma City).
For the playoffs, Washington has just one game where he finished with less than five rebounds, and he’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game overall.
Dallas needs him on the floor defensively, and this is a favorable matchup for him to hit the glass on the defensive end since both of Boston’s centers stretch the floor and aren’t always parked in the paint (like Rudy Gobert was in the Western Conference Finals).
This is a great number to land Washington at him Game 2.
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Game 1 of the NBA Finals was all Boston, as the Boston Celtics opened up the biggest first-quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA history on Thursday night and cruised to a 107-89 win to take a 1-0 series lead.
Boston is now -400 to win the NBA Finals – an implied probability of 80 percent – and it is heavily favored again in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.
Dallas’ role players struggled in Game 1, as PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, and Dereck Lively II gave the team very little on offense. Kyrie Irving (12 points) also shot terribly from the field, going 6-for-19.
What’s most impressive about Boston’s Game 1 win was that Jayson Tatum (6-for-16 shooting, six turnovers) did not play well by his standards, and the C’s still cruised to a win.
Jaylen Brown (22 points on 7-of-12 shooting), and Kristaps Porzingis (20 points on 8-of-13 shooting) took over the game in the first half, especially Porzingis in the first quarter.
Unless Dallas’ role players – and Irving – step up in Game 2, there’s a good chance Boston leads this series 2-0 before it shifts back to Dallas.
Here’s a look at the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 2 of the NBA Finals:
Kyrie Irving: There are no two ways around it, Kyrie Irving was awful in Game 1 on Thursday night, shooting just 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc, finishing with 12 points. Dallas’ offense mustered just 89 points – despite 30 from Luka Doncic – and Irving is the clear player that needs to step up in that category for the Mavs to keep up with this vaunted Boston attack.
Boston Celtics
Kristaps Porzingis: How important was Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1? Well, he’s skyrocketed in the odds to win the NBA Finals MVP award. KP only played 21 minutes in Game 1, but his impact was undeniable. Boston was an impressive +13 in his minutes, and the big man finished with 20 points, six rebounds, and three blocks while shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. Could his role/minutes expand in Game 2?
Porzingis was the best player on the floor – especially in the first half – controlling the game on both ends with his size.
Dallas was unable to get lobs at the rim to Gafford and Lively II – rendering them nearly useless on the offensive end – and Porzingis hunted and dominated the smaller Dallas players in switches on his way to an impressive shooting night.
On the Dallas side, PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Maxi Kleber, Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. went 1-for-11 from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic, whose teammates were shooting 57 percent from the field on his passes this postseason, had just one assist.
That’s not going to cut it for Dallas, especially when the Celtics shoot 16-for-42 (38.1 percent) from beyond the arc.
Boston seemed content playing Doncic straight up, and the rest of the Mavericks were unable to give the All-NBA guard much help.
When it comes to betting on Game 2, I’m focusing on the first half, a place where Boston has thrived this season.
The Celtics let things slip in the third quarter, allowing Dallas to cut the lead to just eight points, but it responded with a quick 8-0 run to push things back up to 16 before a Mavs timeout late in the third.
I want to avoid any letdown in the third quarter – or just a run where Dallas gets going – and take the C’s to cover the short first-half spread (Boston -3.5).
This season, Boston is a league-best 63-32-1 against the spread in the first half. Dallas is 49-50 ATS, which isn’t a bad mark, but it’s way behind the C’s.
Boston looked comfortable and focused from the jump on Thursday night, and it has so many different offensive options to punish the Dallas defense.
This may end up being a closer game than Game 1 by the end, but I love trusting the Celtics to start fast like they’ve done all season long.
Pick: Celtics 1H -3.5 (-110)
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It took just one game -- one quarter really -- of the 2024 NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics to show why they had the best record in the NBA in the 2023-24 season and led the league in net rating.
Boston jumped out to the biggest first quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA Finals history, and it didn't let Dallas get closer than eight points the rest of the way in a blowout win.
The C's came into this series as -210 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, giving them an implied probability of over 60 percent to win the title. That has already changed drastically after Boston's Game 1 win.
Based on the latest odds at DraftKings, Boston has an implied probability of 80 percent to win the NBA Finals this season. While it was only one game, it's clear that Boston's dominance has altered the betting market in a big way.
A historical trend that dates back to the 1996-97 season also favors Boston, as no team that has finished outside the top eight in net rating during the regular season has gone on to win the NBA Finals since then.
Dallas is attempting to break that trend this season.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
For bettors that still believe in the Mavericks, there is something to hang your hat on after Game 1.
Jason Kidd was just 1-5 (now 1-6) in Game 1s as the Mavericks' head coach, but he's led his team to a 5-1 series record so far in two playoff runs. Kidd has made the adjustments -- and his team has responded -- after other poor showings in series openers in the playoffs this season.
As a bettor who already has a Celtics future from the preseason in pocket, I'm standing pat ahead of Sunday's Game 2 based on the latest odds movement.
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Returning to the Boston lineup for the first time in more than five weeks, Porzingis was outstanding, finishing Game 1 with 20 points (on 8 for 13 shooting), six rebounds and three blocks. Coming off the bench for the first time this season, Porzingis made an immediate impact, racking up 11 points in the first seven minutes, helping the Celtics build a 37–20 lead.
“Even if I have time off, I can jump right back in and I feel the same way,” Porzingis said. “I get to my spots, so whether it’s playoffs, regular season or whatever, I know how to do this. That’s it, just having that confidence, going out there whatever, first round or Finals, just going out there with full confidence and giving what I have to the team.”
As solid as Boston was during the conference playoffs—and the Celtics lost just one game after Porzingis went out in the first round with a calf injury—Porzingis’s return clearly makes Boston measurably better. Porzingis torched the Mavericks offensively, exploiting switches and forcing Dallas’s bigs to chase him beyond the three-point line. Defensively, Porzingis was a menace; the shots he didn’t block he contested and on screens he all but dared the Mavs wing players to take the ball to the rim.
“He was great for them,” Mavericks star guard Luka Doncic said. “He was knocking down shots. He was blocking shots. So he was really, really huge for them on both ends of the floor.”
As thrilled as the Celtics were to get Porzingis back, the 7’2” big man was happier to be there. He received a loud ovation when he came out to warm up hours before the game. And the crowd exploded when Porzingis popped up on the JumboTron making the walk down the back hallway and onto the floor.
“Getting that kind of support was unreal,” Porzingis said. “The adrenaline was pumping through my veins and that definitely helped. Obviously, it wasn’t ideal that I was out for such a long time, but I did everything I could to prepare mentally for this moment coming back. And it paid off and we got the job done tonight and had a good game and [I’m] happy about the result.”
Entering this series, the Celtics believed they were uniquely equipped to defend Doncic. They had two All-Defensive Team members (Jrue Holiday and Derrick White) and Jaylen Brown, who probably deserved to be on one. Doncic got his points (30 on 12 for 26 shooting) but finished the game with one assist, his lowest total of the season. The lobs that powered Dallas’s offense in the conference finals? Gone. The corner threes? Taken away. The Mavericks’ nine assists were their lowest total of the season.
“They did a great job defending, making it tough on us,” Dallas head coach Jason Kidd said. “We had some good looks that didn’t go down. We’ve got to move the ball. The ball just stuck too much.”
Said Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla, “I thought our defensive mindset, our defensive execution, our defensive game plan, our positioning, we had the right intentions and I thought we played really physical, for the most part, defending without fouling.”
Doncic finished with 30 points but had only one assist, his lowest total of the season. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Credit Brown, who glued himself to Doncic for most of his 37 minutes. Brown has the size and strength to stay in front of Doncic and the discipline not to bite on any of his pump-fakes. By not sending double teams, Boston shut down the rest of the Dallas offense; when Kidd waved the white flag in the fourth quarter, only two other Mavericks (Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington) had scored in double figures and neither had more than 14 points.
“What you saw tonight is kind of the challenge he took for himself coming into the year,” Mazzulla said. “Not wanting to be defined by one thing. Wanting to make plays. Wanting to be a well-rounded player and get better and better. So his spacing, his ball movement, his defense on ball and off ball.”
The much-talked-about hostility from the TD Garden crowd toward Irving never materialized; it’s tough to get too fired up when your team spent most of the game leading by double digits. Irving’s return to Boston was a dismal one: 12 points (on 6 for 19 shooting), two assists and three turnovers. While Irving had to contend with Holiday most of the night, the ex–All-Star missed a lot of open looks, including several beyond the three-point line and three in the third quarter, when Dallas briefly cut the lead to single digits.
“They really rely on their great defensive ball pressure and one-on-one defenders,” Irving said. “They funnel us into certain areas. Even as I say that, that they are relying on the one-on-one, every time I got an iso, there’s almost two, three people waiting for me to get in there. I have to catch the ball on a live dribble and just be aware of my opportunities.”
The Celtics have been burying opponents in three-pointers all season, finishing first in the league in attempts (42.5 per game) and second in percentage (38.8%). In Game 1, the Celtics were 7 for 15 from three-point range in the first quarter, helping build the double-digit lead they wouldn’t surrender.
Hauser had a rough conference finals, connecting on 12.5% of his shots and making just one three in a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers. He shook that off in Game 1, collecting eight points and making both of his three-point attempts. When Dallas went Hauser-hunting in the first half, he responded, locking up Doncic on two possessions and forcing Irving into a missed three.
Hauser shook off a rough conference finals to post a solid outing in Game 1 of the Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
NBA commissioner Adam Silver didn’t provide one at his annual pre-Finals news conference. Silver declined to comment on reports the NBA had agreed to the framework of deals with ESPN, NBC and Amazon while passing on a specific question about whether or not Warner Bros. Discovery—the parent company for longtime NBA broadcast partner Turner—had the right to match any deal.
“It’s complicated for several reasons,” Silver said. “One is the advent of new platforms, particularly streaming, and the interest of streaming companies, and then the traditional media companies also carrying our games on streaming platforms. It’s complicated with multiple partners all seeking similar assets. In many cases, just figuring out the right way to balance those games as they go to different partners.
“We tend to do long-term deals. We think that’s good for the stability of the league, but it means, to a certain extent, you’re trying to predict the future, which is, of course, impossible. So part of it is a bet on the partners that we will ultimately align with and their ability also to adjust with the times and their willingness to continue to invest in media and also become global, which is very important to the league as well.”
The Boston Celtics secured a 1–0 lead in the 2024 NBA Finals after taking care of business on their home court against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night in Game 1, 107–89.
The Celtics jumped out to a huge first-half lead, pulling ahead by as many as 29 points during the second quarter before heading into halftime up by 21. Although the Mavericks clawed back to within eight points in the third quarter, Boston was able to re-extend its advantage and shut the door on the series opener.
Kristaps Porzingis was sensational in his return to the lineup, making his first appearance for the Celtics since April 29, when he sustained a calf injury against the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs. The 28-year-old scored 20 points off the bench, providing a major offensive boost for the team.
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum combined for 38 points, coming up with big plays on both ends of the floor as they helped guide their team to a Game 1 win. Tatum recorded a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds, while Brown came away with three steals and three blocks, alongside a team-high 22 points.
As for the Mavs, Luka Doncic's first taste of the NBA Finals was not what he'd been hoping for. The 25-year-old played well, but it wasn't enough to keep Dallas close. He scored a game-high 30 points while adding 10 rebounds and just one assist. Backcourt mate Kyrie Irving struggled in the loss, shooting 6 for 19 in a 12-point outing.
Dallas faltered as a whole from beyond the arc, making just 7 of 27 attempts from three-point range. Boston was vastly better, shooting 16 for 42 from deep, a difference which showed up on the scoreboard. The Mavericks' 89 points were their fewest this postseason.
Dallas will look to bounce back in Game 2, which is set for Sunday at 8 p.m. ET from TD Garden.
BOSTON—Kristaps Porzingis didn’t want to talk about it.
“It didn’t work out,” Porzingis said.
Luka Doncic wanted nothing to do with it.
“Moved on,” Doncic said.
Tim Hardaway Jr. didn’t want to touch it.
“I think that’s a question for them,” Hardaway said.
It is the question of why Doncic and Porzingis, teammates for 2½ seasons with the Dallas Mavericks, didn’t pan out. In 2019, Dallas, midway through Doncic’s rookie season, made what qualified as a blockbuster trade, flipping a pair of first-round picks to the New York Knicks for a package headlined by Porzingis. In Porzingis, a then-23-year-old forward coming off an All-Star season, the Mavericks believed they had landed an ideal co-star for Doncic who would form the foundation for a title contender. Then-Dallas coach Rick Carlisle likened Doncic and Porzingis to another pair of Mavs stars, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki.
“Only these guys,” Carlisle said, “are taller.”
It wasn’t. By 2022, Porzingis was gone, offloaded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Porzingis’s numbers in his final 34 games in Dallas: 19.2 points on 45.1% shooting, including 28.3% from three.
“We had some good moments,” Porzingis said. “We had some decent moments. Overall I think it didn't work for both sides. It wasn’t perfect.”
Said Doncic, “I don’t really know. I don’t know why it didn’t work out. We were still both young. We tried to make it work. But it just didn’t work.”
Ask around the Mavericks about the Porzingis era, one that began with Carlisle as head coach and ended with Jason Kidd, and you hear many of the same things. The relationship with Doncic wasn’t a significant issue. “It’s always been good,” Porzingis insisted. Injuries were certainly a factor. Porzingis was traded while recovering from an ACL tear and tore his meniscus late in his first full season. Porzingis resisted Dallas’s analytics-based approach. He struggled in a catch-and-shoot role under Carlisle and couldn’t find a rhythm under Kidd.
“I thought it was going well in the sense of our defense, his ability to block shots, rebound,” Kidd said. “Then offensively we looked to post him up a little bit more than Rick had used him, which was strictly on the perimeter shooting threes. Both worked. He has the skill set to do both. I thought KP did great for us. But the business of basketball, there was a pivot. So from there things changed.”
With the Boston Celtics, Porzingis has been the kind of fit the Mavericks had hoped for. He averaged 20.1 points. He shot a career-best 51.5% from the floor. He connected on 37.5% of his threes. He blocked nearly two shots per game, backstopping the NBA’s third-rated defense.
Asked when he knew Porzingis would be a good fit, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said, “right away.”
“I think all he cares about is winning,” Mazzulla said. “He’s used the experiences he’s had around the league. He’s seen a lot. He’s seen it all. He’s seen success. He’s seen tough times. He knows what the league is all about. I think at this point in his career, winning is the most important thing.”
Indeed, at 28, Porzingis has seen a lot. He was the unicorn in New York, a budding superstar … until he wasn’t. Dallas was a disaster. He put up numbers with the Washington Wizards for a team going nowhere. Boston afforded him a unique opportunity: a role he was ready for on a team that needed him to win.
“KP essentially did exactly what we needed him to do the entire season,” Jayson Tatum said. “Whether it was punish switches or space the five man and be in the corner. Sometimes that might be going possessions without touching the ball or it may be when they’re switching, we give him the ball five times in a row. I give KP a lot of credit. Especially somebody as talented as he is and obviously as tall as he is, a lot of big guys may be stuck in their ways doing what makes him comfortable. He got outside his comfort zone a little bit and it made us a better team.”
Porzingis’s ability to be that player in the NBA Finals is an open question. He has not played since late April, since a calf strain sidelined him. He says he will play in Game 1 on Thursday. Boston did not list him on its injury report. But even Porzingis admits he’s not sure how sharp he is going to be.
“I did as much as I could to prepare for this moment,” Porzingis said. “But there’s nothing like game minutes and game experience that I’m going to get tomorrow. It will be tough to jump into the Finals like this. I did everything I could to prepare for it and we’ll see [Thursday] night.”
And Dallas? Porzingis is eager to beat the Mavs. But he insists none of it is personal.
“I know at that time there were some rumors there’s like something in the locker room,” Porzingis said. “It was never like that. It’s all just noise at the end. It wasn’t just perfect for us playing together. It didn’t work out, that’s it. We moved on. There’s no, like, ill will from their side, for sure from my side. I don’t think there should be. Just didn’t work out. But I have nothing but love for Dallas and for the teammates and for everybody there.”
Editors’ note, June 5, 4:40 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to reflect the Boston Celtics' injury report for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals.
There are many impressive aspects of the Boston Celtics' march through the Eastern Conference to the NBA Finals. Perhaps most impressive is that they ran through all their opponents without Kristaps Porzingis.
Porzingis, who averaged 20.1 points and 1.9 blocks in 29.6 minutes per game this season, went down with a calf injury on April 29 during Game 4 of the Celtics' first round series against the Miami Heat.. He hasn't seen the floor since, but Boston still posted an absurd 12-2 record over the first three rounds of the playoffs. Since he was healthy for one of those losses, that means the Celtics lost only one game in the month Porzingis has missed.
It is remarkable in many ways and speaks to the depth of the roster that president of basketball operations Brad Stevens built. And with Boston securing its place in the 2024 NBA Finals by way of sweeping the Indiana Pacers on Monday night, the time has finally arrived to see if the franchise can earn its 18th championship. The health of Porzingis will play a substantial role in that quest, and the Celtics earned themselves an extended break to get everybody (including their Latvian big man) healthy as can be.
Will Porzingis return in time to help the Celtics battle in the NBA Finals? Here's the latest on his right soleus strain.
Over the last week all signs have been pointing to Porzingis being ready to go for tip-off on Thursday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. He confirmed this to be the case while speaking to reporters on Wednesday, stating plainly that he plans to play.
As the Celtics have made abundantly clear over the last four weeks, they can win without Porzingis. But to reach the mountaintop and cement themselves in NBA history, they will take all the help they can get. A possible return at full health would be a game-changer against the Mavericks.
UPDATE, June 5, 4:40 p.m. ET: The Celtics released their injury report for Game 1 of the Finals, and Porzingis is not listed. That means he's going to suit up.
While the Celtics, by and large, match up well with the Mavericks, Porzingis would alter both ends of the court drastically. His ability to score on smaller defenders would severely limit the effectiveness of the switch-everything defense the Mavs have employed so successfully this playoffs. It's one thing when Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving is switched onto Rudy Gobert, who for all his value does not punish defenders in the post. But when they end up on Porzingis, who averaged 1.09 points per possession on post-up attempts (ninth in the NBA)? It means an easy bucket for Boston more often than not, and easy buckets are not supposed to happen in the NBA Finals.
If the Mavs don't switch, then Porzingis needs to space the floor in order to ensure Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II don't live in the paint. Dallas's pair of big men have been excellent locking down rim attempts in the postseason, which is especially crucial given Irving and Doncic's energy can wane on that end. Keeping Porzingis out beyond the three-point line means head coach Jason Kidd has to choose between guarding the 7-foot-3 center with one of Gafford/Lively, taking away easy chances to contest layups, or put someone smaller out there and start with a mismatch on Porzingis.
Defensively the Celtics may be challenged to play to Porzingis's strengths. He's best in drop coverage, and drop coverage is tough to play against shot-makers like the Mavs boast. Al Horford is a better switching defender and may end up playing big minutes as he did throughout the opening weeks of the playoffs. But Porzingis did average 1.9 blocks per game. He is a great rim protector whose skills are always useful, even if they may not be exactly optimal in this series.
As noted in a previous article about this very topic, Porinzigs' injury history is concerning and why the Celtics are taking it so slow.
His most serious injury came in February 2018, when Porzingis tore his ACL while playing for the New York Knicks. He missed the rest of the 2017-'18 season and the entirety of the 2018-'19 season in recovery. Since then, Porzingis has accumulated all sorts of bumps, brusies, and strains that have forced him to miss considerable time. He missed 39 games in 2020-'21, 31 games in 2021-'22, and 17 games in 2022-'23.
This past season, Porzingis missed 28 regular season games as he dealt with a variety of small injuries, the most severe of which was a calf strain that forced him to sit out a handful of contests. After suffering his right soleus strain, Porzingis has now missed 10 games.
