Dog Days of Summer: Back the Kansas City Royals tonight at home for plus-money
The Kansas City Royals host the Seattle Mariners tonight at Kaufman Stadium.
Both teams have exceeded expectations this season. The Mariners sit atop the AL West with a 36-28 record, five games ahead of the Texas Rangers. The Royals have a nearly identical record at 37-26 but sit four games behind the Guardians in the AL Central.
Just the way we all drew it up.
Though the two teams have nearly identical records, one stat stands out: run differential. The Royals are at +72, compared to the Mariners at +10.
The Mariners have been successful due to their elite pitching. Seattle's pitching staff has combined for a 3.38 ERA this season, the sixth-best mark in MLB. Their hitting? Let's say it leaves something to be desired. The Mariners have scored an average of just 3.72 runs per game this season, ranking 26th in MLB.
The Royals have been excellent all around. Kansas City pitchers have combined for the eighth-best ERA (3.57), while the offense, led by Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez, has scored an average of 4.68 runs per game this year, ranking sixth in MLB.
Yet, the Royals remain home dogs.
Lefty Daniel Lynch gets the start for Kansas City at home. Lynch was sharp in his last outing, lasting five innings and allowing just five hits and two earned runs to the Minnesota Twins. Lynch has limited innings at the MLB league level this year, but as I mentioned, the Seattle offense is far from a juggernaut. Seattle is batting .219 vs. Southpaws (28th) and slugging just .373 (21st). Kaufman is one of the biggest ballparks, allowing the fifth-fewest home runs per game (1.72).
Bryce Miller gets the start for Seattle. Miller has been excellent this season, pitching to a 3.18 ERA. However, his xERA of 4.10 suggests there could be some regression. His hard-hit rate allowed is in the bottom 12% of the league, and his barrel rate is in the bottom 3%. That could spell trouble vs. Bobby Witt Jr., whose 12.4 barrels per plate appearance ranks fourth in MLB. Miller pitched six innings of no-run ball in his last outing vs. the Angels, but he had a 5.22 ERA in May.
Seattle is the hotter team, going 8-2 across their last 10, while Kansas City is just 3-7. However, sometimes a start at home is just what a team needs to get back on track.
The Royals are 8-7 as home underdogs this year and 22-10 at home overall.
While at it, consider a futures bet for the Royals to win the AL Central (+350). It could be the last time you grab that value.
The Bet: Kansas City ML +110 at DraftKings
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