Mercury vs. Wings Prediction, Odds and Key Players for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup
The Phoenix Mercury are healthy for the first time this season after Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen returned to action in the team’s upset win over Minnesota Lynx on Friday night.
Now, the Mercury find themselves as slight favorites on the road against the Dallas Wings, who are still down Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard and Jaelyn Brown due to injuries, which has led to a subpar 3-6 start to 2024.
If there’s one thing going in the Wings’ favor, it’s that Phoenix has struggled on the road in 2024, going 1-5 straight up in six games. Can the now-healthy Mercury turn that narrative around on Sunday?
Let’s break down the odds, key players to watch and a best bet for this Western Conference clash.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mercury Injury Report
Wings Injury Report
Phoenix Mercury
Brittney Griner: Phoenix’s star center returned from a toe injury to make her 2024 season debut in a win over the Minnesota Lynx on Friday night. Griner looked like her usual self, scoring 11 points, grabbing four boards and blocking a shot in just over 21 minutes of action. Griner gives the Mercury a true presence in the middle, and it allows them to move one of their great guards to the bench (in this case Sophie Cunningham), which gives them a lot more depth.
Dallas Wings
Arike Ogunbowale: With Sabally and Howard out, Arike Ogunbowale has a huge load to carry for the Dallas Wings. The star guard is averaging 26.6 points per game – scoring 20 or more in every matchup this season – but she enters Sunday’s game shooting just 36.4 percent from the field.
The Wings have dropped four games in a row, and they lack the offensive firepower after Ogunbowale to compete with a fully healthy Mercury team in my eyes.
Even though Ogunbowale is scoring the ball at a high rate, she’s not shooting it efficiently, and neither are the Wings as a whole. They rank eighth in the league in effective field goal percentage, and that’s not the worst part of their advanced numbers in 2024.
Dallas is also 10th in the league in defensive rating, which is a major concern given the weapons (Griner, Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper) that the Mercury have on offense.
Now, I don’t want to act like Phoenix has been elite this season. It actually ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating in 2024, but we have to remember that two starters were out for the first 10 games of the season.
The first game they came back?
Phoenix promptly beat the best team in the Western Conference right now as a 5.5-point underdog.
The Mercury have some big wins (over Minnesota and Las Vegas) and their defense should improve with Griner protecting the rim. Before Phoenix was running an extremely small four-guard lineup.
I think this is a buy low spot on the Mercury before oddsmakers realize how deadly this team can be at full strength.
Pick: Mercury Moneyline (-120)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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