The Dallas Mavericks are sizable underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics, but there are a lot of public bettors that believe Dallas will take this series.
If you also believe that’s the case, betting on a Mavs player to win Finals MVP is a great way to cash in on some favorable odds since Celtics All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite in this market.
Luka Doncic is No. 2 on the list – clearly the top Mavs player entering this series – but there are two dark horses that I think are worth considering if you want to place a small wager on them to win NBA Finals MVP.
There is Doncic, and then there is a massive gap between the rest of the Mavs in this market – and for good reason.
The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games.
Doncic has a massive usage rate, and he looked to bet getting over his knee and ankle injuries – at least when it comes to his scoring – in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in each of Dallas’ four wins.
Jrue Holiday will be a tough and likely matchup for Doncic, but let’s not forget that Luka nearly averaged a triple double in the regular season while putting up 33.9 points per game. Dallas will need him to be otherworldly to win this series, and if he is, he’s going to win Finals MVP.
Kyrie Irving (+2000)
Has there been a bigger revenge series in recent memory than this one for Kyrie Irving?
A former Celtic, Irving has a chance to bury his former team in the Finals, and he is the clear-cut No. 2 option to win Finals MVP on the Mavericks. In fact, no player has shorter than +29000 odds on Dallas after Doncic and Irving.
Kyrie’s scoring would likely be his calling card to propel him in this market, but asking him to outplay Doncic is a tough task, and if he does, doesn’t that put Dallas in a tough spot to win the series?
The Mavs need both of their stars to be great in this series, and if that’s the case, the betting odds suggest Doncic is the clear favorite here. Kyrie could be worth a sprinkle, but his path to a Finals MVP is a little murky outside of him scoring at an all-time rate.
Dereck Lively II (+50000)
The longest of longshots, rookie Dereck Lively II is second on the Mavericks in plus/minus this postseason, and he’s made a massive impact on the defensive end of the floor.
Could Lively’s defense and rebounding be enough to win this award?
It’s highly unlikely, but he’s the one Mavs role player I’d consider given his positive impact on a game-to-game basis for the Mavs. Plus, if Lively wins the matchup with Kristaps Porzingis (Daniel Gafford will start for Dallas but Lively will probably close) late in games, it could be crucial to Dallas pulling off an upset.
Don’t break the bank betting on him, but for the sake of this exercise, he’d be my No. 3 choice.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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There are plenty of ways to bet on the 2024 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, but wagering on the NBA Finals MVP may be one of the most exciting.
Oddsmakers have set the NBA Finals market since the start of the playoffs, and one constant has been All-Star Jayson Tatum leading the way. Tatum, who is now -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook, is the best player on the best team in the NBA, and with Boston favored to win this series pretty heavily, he’s the odds-on favorite to take home NBA Finals MVP.
Both Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are in the top five of the odds to win the Finals MVP, but I’m focusing strictly on Boston players to bet in this market in this article, as you prepare your card for the Finals.
In terms of value, Jaylen Brown at +650 is the best bet on the board.
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, getting the nod over Tatum, who was heavily favored, and it’s certainly possible that this could happen again.
Based on implied probability, Brown has just a 13.33 percent chance to win Finals MVP while Tatum is all the way up at 53.49 percent.
However, their numbers aren’t all that different this postseason.
PPG
RPG
APG
FG%
3P%
Jayson Tatum
26.0
10.4
5.9
44.2
29.0
Jaylen Brown
25.0
6.1
2.6
54.1
36.8
Tatum has definitely done more outside of scoring the ball, but he's also shooting significantly worse than Brown, who has shot 50 percent or better from the field in 11 of his 14 games this postseason.
Does a big scoring series by Brown -- with Tatum struggling from 3 this postseason -- shift the odds in his favor? Given how quickly Boston has worked through its other opponents, I wouldn't be shocked if one or two big games swing this market toward Brown.
Jayson Tatum (-115)
Tatum is an obvious choice to win this award, although you’re not getting a massive return on your investment if he does win.
Even though his shot isn’t falling the way he’d like, Tatum has stepped up on the glass – which was huge with Porzingis out for the majority of the playoffs – and as a passer.
Tatum doesn’t get a ton of credit for his passing ability, but he’s averaged over 5.0 assists per game in each of his last three playoff runs, reaching the NBA Finals twice in that stretch.
If Tatum and Brown play similarly, the market is suggesting that Tatum has the edge, and he’d likely be the choice to win this award. Given his usage, especially as a passer, Tatum has a path to this award as long as he matches Brown’s scoring output.
Jrue Holiday (+5000)
My dark horse pick for the NBA Finals MVP award on Boston is point guard Jrue Holiday, who was terrific against Indiana and has been on a heater over his last few playoff games.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game since Game 3 against Cleveland in the second round. He’s shooting an impressive 59.2 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from 3 in that stretch (seven games) while also taking on the toughest defensive assignment on a nightly basis.
That’s where Holiday has an interesting edge, as he could win this award if he shuts down Luka Doncic. We’ve seen it in the past (Andre Iguodala in 2015 and Kawhi Leonard in 2014) where the player tasked with guarding LeBron James earned the Finals MVP award.
It’s not a foolproof path for Holiday, but there’s certainly a chance he wins this, especially if Tatum and Brown don’t put together massive offensive numbers in the series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors... are loving it?
Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.
It's shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it's the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?
Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.
I still believe that Boston -- with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis -- is the better team and will go on to win the title.
However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.
That's extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs' stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.
Still, taking note of where the public's money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The Boston Celtics finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA at 64-18. Then they rolled through the Eastern Conference playoffs, losing just two games in three rounds on their way to their second NBA Finals in three seasons. You would think things were going pretty well in Boston, but if you tuned into Get Up this morning, you might think the team was about to unravel.
During Day 2 of the conversation about Jaylen Brown being named MVP of the Eastern Conference finals, they showed a clip of Brown receiving his trophy and highlighted Jayson Tatum smiling while he clapped for his longtime teammate. This was apparently Tatum being "shocked" and not excited like his teamamtes.
This might be the dumbest ESPN segment in the Jayson Tatum & Jaylen Brown era. And thats saying a lot.
“When Jaylen Brown wins the award the rest of the team just goes crazy, they were so genuinely excited for him. And you did not seem to think it was mirrored in Jayson Tatum” pic.twitter.com/3LGv7lBs1w
"I think a lot of people were surprised," said Greenberg. "There was a lot of chatter online yesterday to whatever degree this is important and relevant about Jayson Tatum's reaction. When Jaylen Brown wins that award in the moment that it happens, the rest of the team just goes crazy. And you were talking about it in our meeting earlier this morning. They're all so genuinely... Look at them. They are just so genuinely excited for him and you did not seem to think that it was mirrored in Jayson Tatum."
Greenberg then turned to Udonis Haslem, who twice says he thought Tatum was "shocked." Again, the video clearly shows Tatum doing exactly what every other teammate is doing in the same video. He's touching Brown in congratulations. He's smiling. He's clapping. He has the same look on his face that everyone else does. In order to imagine this being some kind negative reaction you would have to be someone with a vested interest in the Celtics failing. Conveniently, Get Up had one of those people on set today in Udonis Haslem.
What is ESPN thinking having Haslem, who played two decades for the Heat and is currently employed by the team, commenting on Miami's most bitter rival? They're putting him on national television to sow doubt in the public's mind about how their stars feel about each other using a video of them celebrating a trip to the Finals. The fact that this came in the same episode that Haslem was worried about possibly tampering during a segment about LeBron James makes it an even more dubious decision.
While we probably shouldn't be surprised that Haslem would try to say this, it's downright amazing that Greenberg would not just humor him but set him up for it. There is literally nothing in this video that would suggest anything but joy, yet ESPN has Tatum lit up like he's being identified in CCTV footage at a burglary trial.. All he's doing is smiling!
The Ringer's Bill Simmons was among the many people to call Greenberg and ESPN out for this ridiculous editorial choice.
“Great segment Greeny. That might get us a million views online. Let’s try to keep the Tatum vs Brown storyline going heading into the Finals, Dave Roberts just texted me, he loves it!” pic.twitter.com/1ft9hPBtKE
The worst part about all this is that there is still a week until the NBA Finals start. If this is what ESPN's flagship morning show has turned to the morning after an actual Western Conference finals game we can't be far from wondering whether Tatum or Brown will demand a trade first this offseason. Sure, they've played together for seven straight years, had a ton of success and both signed max contracts at every opportunity, but maybe they want more!
Maybe Pat Riley or Alonzo Mourning can join the show to discuss trade destinations next week.
After ending the Miami Heat's season with a 118-84 victory in Game 5 at TD Garden on Wednesday night, the Boston Celtics are on to the second round where they'll face the winner of the first round series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic.
The ultimate outcome of Boston moving on to the second round past the shorthanded Heat was expected, but after the Celtics lost Game 2 of the series in stunning fashion, critics bashed the toughness of this Celtics' core, led by stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Why did the Celtics lose to the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals? Fans and media critics pointed to Boston's lack of toughness.
Why did the Celtics lose to the Miami Heat in seven games in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals? Fans and media critics once again pointed to Boston's lack of toughness.
So with fans and media questioning Boston's toughness earlier in the series, did it get to Tatum at all? Don't count on it.
"No, I think [in] the world we live in, it's gotta be something wrong with every team," Tatum told the media Wednesday night. "That's what they like to say. You can see how talented we are. I think it's lazy, or easy, to say that teams can out-tough us, right? I never understood that. What's the definition of tough? Having louder guys on your team? That s--- don't make you tough. Everybody has their own definition of what toughness is. It's playing the right way, showing up every day to do your job without complaining. I think that's being tough."
Tatum: "What’s the definition of tough? Having the louder guys on your team? That shit don’t make you tough. Everybody has their own definition of what toughness is. It’s playing the right way, showing up every day to do your job without complaining. I think that's being tough.” pic.twitter.com/SRzn1vdA6x
Whether Tatum likes it or not, the Celtics have had their fair share of head-scratching losses with their young superstar core over the past few postseasons, and in many cases, those losses have kept Boston from reaching its ultimate goal of winning an NBA championship.
The Celtics are hoping to break that trend with a title later this summer.
