Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Mavericks vs. Celtics in NBA Finals Game 2 (Bet This Kristaps Porzingis Prop)

Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Mavericks vs. Celtics in NBA Finals Game 2 (Bet This Kristaps Porzingis Prop)

Game 2 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and there are only so many more days that we can bet on the NBA this season, so why not take advantage of them with a few player prop picks?

Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks ended up being a blowout, but it was an educational game in terms of how these teams are going to match up. 

We learned that Kristaps Porzingis was going to come off the bench, Boston was going to play Luka Doncic straight up, and Dallas’ lob threats weren't going to have an easy time at the rim. 

There is one prop I took in Game 1 – Jrue Holiday’s points, rebounds, and assists – that I’m going back to on Sunday night, along with two more plays to round out the betting card. 

Let’s break things down!

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)

Kristaps Porzingis came off the bench for Boston in Game 1 and dominated the game in the 21 minutes that he played, shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. 

While he didn’t play his usual minutes, Porzingis still attempted the second-most shots on the team and was a clear focal point on the Boston offense. 

I’m eyeing his 3-point prop in Game 2, as he’s had a ton of success against Dallas in this market this season. In his lone regular-season meeting with the Mavs, KP drilled four of his eight shots from beyond the arc. 

Dallas switched a lot in Game 1, giving Porzingis some favorable matchups to shoot over smaller defenders. If that continues, I imagine he keeps letting it fly from 3. KP shot 37.5 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season. 

Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Jrue Holiday did a little bit of everything in Game 1, finishing with 12 points (4-for-9 shooting), eight rebounds, and five assists to clear his PRA prop of 22.5.

Oddsmakers are setting this at the same number in Game 2, and I’ll gladly take the OVER again on the Celtics point guard.

Holiday has now cleared this line in every game since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals and seven of his last eight contests while averaging 16.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game over that stretch.

There aren’t a ton of shots to go around in the Boston offense, but Holiday still got a decent share in Game 1 and did a lot of the dirty work on the glass as well. Until he starts missing this number consistently, he’s a must-bet for me in Game 2. 

PJ Washington OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-135)

Dallas forward PJ Washington had a big game on the glass in Game 1 with the Celtics spreading out the Dallas defense. 

Washington finished with eight rebounds in the loss, the ninth time in 12 times that he’s cleared this total (dating back to the start of the second round against Oklahoma City).

For the playoffs, Washington has just one game where he finished with less than five rebounds, and he’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game overall. 

Dallas needs him on the floor defensively, and this is a favorable matchup for him to hit the glass on the defensive end since both of Boston’s centers stretch the floor and aren’t always parked in the paint (like Rudy Gobert was in the Western Conference Finals). 

This is a great number to land Washington at him Game 2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Celtics Present United Front Against Jason Kidd’s Mind Games

Celtics Present United Front Against Jason Kidd’s Mind Games

BOSTON – Jason Kidd made 10 All-Star teams during his NBA career, earning his place among the great playmakers with size, skill and, yes, smarts. Kidd saw the game better than most, still does. On Saturday, as Kidd’s media availability was wrapping up, he was asked a a boilerplate question about Jaylen Brown’s game. 

“Well, Jaylen,” Kidd said, “is their best player.” 

Boom, there’s your story. Kidd knew what he was doing with that answer. Of course he did. Few dynamics are more closely scrutinized than Brown and Jayson Tatum. Just last week, ESPN Zapruder-filmed a video of Tatum applauding Brown’s conference finals MVP win—not hard enough for their liking—to wonder if there was an issue. Brown is routinely measured against Tatum, two All-NBA wings, teammates, forever in competition. Kidd’s comment was less praise for Brown than a chance to toss a grenade into Boston’s locker room. 

“J-Kidd, man,” said Celtics center Al Horford, laughing. “I see what he is doing.”

Indeed, everyone does. And why not? If there was anything learned from Boston’s 107–89 shellacking of the Mavericks in Game 1, it’s that in this series, Dallas is outgunned. Luka Doncic got 30 but he needed 26 shots to get there, while the Celtics’ ability to defend him straight up held Doncic to a single assist. Gone were the lobs, the corner threes that powered the Mavs through a rugged Western Conference. Instead, it was congested drives and contested jumpers while Dallas struggled to get anything past the 7’2” Kristaps Porzingis waiting for them at the rim. 

“I thought we were too much one-on-one,” said Kidd. “We've got to move bodies. We've got to move the ball. Multiple guys have to touch the ball. We were just too stagnant, and that's not the way we play. We've got to be better.”

Kyrie Irving will be better because, for Irving, it couldn’t go much worse. Irving scored 12 points on Thursday, connecting on 31.6% of his shots and missing all five of his threes. Much was made of how the Boston crowd would respond to Irving on Thursday, and while there were the obligatory chants, all things considered the reaction was relatively tame. “I thought it would be louder,” Irving said. Many of Irving’s misses were off open looks and Dallas is confident if he gets the same looks in Game 2, those shots will go down. 

“I mean it was our first time being together as a group in this Finals stage,” said Irving. “Experience is the best teacher at times when you don't know what to expect.”

Even if Irving is better, Dallas needs more. More from Dereck Lively II, the springy rookie who got off one shot in 18 minutes. More from Derrick Jones Jr., who finished 2-for-9 from the floor. More from Josh Green, who was 1-for-4. The Mavs committed 11 turnovers in Game 1, which led to 18 Celtics points. 

“We've got to take care of the ball,” Kidd said. “We've got to make it easier for Ky and Luka. Being able to put those guys in different spots on the floor so there's a little bit stress-free so they can do what they do at a high level. We just didn't do that in Game 1.”

Mavericks coach Jason Kidd at a press conferenceMavericks coach Jason Kidd at a press conference

Kidd’s press conference tactic doesn’t appear to have had its desired effect. / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Kidd created a firestorm with his lofty praise of Brown but inside Boston’s locker room, it isn’t going anywhere. For years the dynamic between the two has been scrutinized, and all it has done is make the bond between them stronger. They are very different people, Tatum and Brown, but they share the same goal. Six conference finals, two NBA Finals and all that matters now is that they don’t leave this one empty handed. 

“This is a team sport, right?” Tatum said. “We understand that. We wouldn't be here if we didn't have JB on our team, and we can say that for a lot of guys. We have all played a part in getting to where we're at. We understand that people try to drive a wedge between us. I guess it's a smart thing to do or try to do. We've been in this position for many of years of guys trying to divide us and say that one of us should be traded or one is better than the other. So it's not our first time at the rodeo.”

Said Brown, “We've been just extremely focused on what our roles and our jobs are. We have all had to sacrifice. Jason [Kidd] has had to do that at the highest of levels and I respect him and tip his cap for it. Right now, at this point, it's whatever it takes to win and we can't let any outside interpretations try to get in between.”

Dallas wants Tatum to feel slighted, to overcompensate, try too hard to assert himself in Game 2. Not happening, Tatum says. Tatum wants to score but if the Mavs tilt its defense towards Tatum again, if they continue to load up, Tatum will keep the ball moving. He collected five assists in Game 1 and if more shots had fallen, he could have racked up several more. 

“It's just about reading the game,” Tatum said. “Draw so much attention, you know, when I have the ball in my hands. It's about creating an advantage. We always talk about that, watching film, creating advantage, finding the mismatch that we want, and it might not always end up in the shot for you. Or if you set a screen and get a smaller guy on you, just having that mismatch and calling for the ball, right, it may draw other defenders to help, and we can pin in for somebody else to get a shot. Those things won't show up in the stats sheet, but it's part of our execution, and sometimes you have to make a sacrificial cut or things like that to generate good shoots.”

Even after years of success as teammates, after All-Stars and All-NBA teams, 50-win seasons and deep playoff runs, questions about Tatum and Brown’s relationship still linger. Only one thing will kill them off. On Sunday, Boston will look to move one win closer to doing so. 

Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 2 (Bet Boston Early)

Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 2 (Bet Boston Early)

Game 1 of the NBA Finals was all Boston, as the Boston Celtics opened up the biggest first-quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA history on Thursday night and cruised to a 107-89 win to take a 1-0 series lead.

Boston is now -400 to win the NBA Finals – an implied probability of 80 percent – and it is heavily favored again in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.

Dallas’ role players struggled in Game 1, as PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford,  Maxi Kleber, and Dereck Lively II gave the team very little on offense. Kyrie Irving (12 points) also shot terribly from the field, going 6-for-19. 

What’s most impressive about Boston’s Game 1 win was that Jayson Tatum (6-for-16 shooting, six turnovers) did not play well by his standards, and the C’s still cruised to a win. 

Jaylen Brown (22 points on 7-of-12 shooting), and Kristaps Porzingis (20 points on 8-of-13 shooting) took over the game in the first half, especially Porzingis in the first quarter. 

Unless Dallas’ role players – and Irving – step up in Game 2, there’s a good chance Boston leads this series 2-0 before it shifts back to Dallas. 

Here’s a look at the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 2 of the NBA Finals: 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Mavericks Injury Report

Celtics Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving: There are no two ways around it, Kyrie Irving was awful in Game 1 on Thursday night, shooting just 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc, finishing with 12 points. Dallas’ offense mustered just 89 points – despite 30 from Luka Doncic – and Irving is the clear player that needs to step up in that category for the Mavs to keep up with this vaunted Boston attack. 

Boston Celtics

Kristaps Porzingis: How important was Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1? Well, he’s skyrocketed in the odds to win the NBA Finals MVP award. KP only played 21 minutes in Game 1, but his impact was undeniable. Boston was an impressive +13 in his minutes, and the big man finished with 20 points, six rebounds, and three blocks while shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. Could his role/minutes expand in Game 2?

In my series prediction, I mentioned two things that came to light in Game 1: 

Both things went in Boston’s favor in Game 1. 

Porzingis was the best player on the floor – especially in the first half – controlling the game on both ends with his size. 

Dallas was unable to get lobs at the rim to Gafford and Lively II – rendering them nearly useless on the offensive end – and Porzingis hunted and dominated the smaller Dallas players in switches on his way to an impressive shooting night. 

On the Dallas side, PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Maxi Kleber, Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. went 1-for-11 from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic, whose teammates were shooting 57 percent from the field on his passes this postseason, had just one assist. 

That’s not going to cut it for Dallas, especially when the Celtics shoot 16-for-42 (38.1 percent) from beyond the arc. 

Boston seemed content playing Doncic straight up, and the rest of the Mavericks were unable to give the All-NBA guard much help. 

When it comes to betting on Game 2, I’m focusing on the first half, a place where Boston has thrived this season.

The Celtics let things slip in the third quarter, allowing Dallas to cut the lead to just eight points, but it responded with a quick 8-0 run to push things back up to 16 before a Mavs timeout late in the third. 

I want to avoid any letdown in the third quarter – or just a run where Dallas gets going – and take the C’s to cover the short first-half spread (Boston -3.5). 

This season, Boston is a league-best 63-32-1 against the spread in the first half. Dallas is 49-50 ATS, which isn’t a bad mark, but it’s way behind the C’s.

Boston looked comfortable and focused from the jump on Thursday night, and it has so many different offensive options to punish the Dallas defense.

This may end up being a closer game than Game 1 by the end, but I love trusting the Celtics to start fast like they’ve done all season long. 

Pick: Celtics 1H -3.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum Respond to Jason Kidd Calling Brown Celtics' Best Player

Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum Respond to Jason Kidd Calling Brown Celtics’ Best Player

Could Dallas Mavericks coach Jason Kidd be engaging in a little gamesmanship ahead of Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday?

Kidd minced no words during Saturday afternoon's press conference when he called Celtics star Jaylen Brown, not Jayson Tatum, Boston's best player.

Naturally, NBA fans and media alike were wondering if Kidd was trying to influence how Tatum and Brown come out and play in Game 2.

It's not the first time the Celtics' co-stars have been dealing with media narratives such as this, and they're clearly not interested in taking the bait.

"I don't have no reaction," Brown said. "It's a team game, we're trying to focus on that. Everybody has their own opinions."

When asked if he thought Kidd was trying to drive a wedge between himself and Tatum, Brown complimented his teammate, while reiterating that the team is locked in on the task at hand.

"I'm not sure. I don't know," Brown said of Kidd's perceived tactics. "We've been just extremely focused on what our roles and our jobs are. We've all had to sacrifice. Jayson's had to do that at the highest of levels, right? And I respect him and tip [my] cap for it. But right now, at this point, it's whatever it takes to win and we can't let any outside interpretations get in between that."

Tatum wasn't surprised that another media narrative was surfacing trying to divide the two best players on the team.

"No reaction," Tatum said when asked about the comments. "This is a team sport, right? We understand that. We wouldn't be here if we didn't have JB on our team. And we can say that for a lot of guys, right? We've all played a part in getting to where we're at, we understand that."

"You know, people try to drive a wedge in between us. I guess it's a smart thing to do or try to do. But we've been in this position for many of years of guys trying to divide us and say one of us should be traded or one's better than the other. It's not our first time at the rodeo."

Regardless of whether or not Kidd is trying to gain a psychological edge on Tatum, Brown and the Celtics, it does not appear to be working.

Sunday night will tell the true tale in Game 2. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET at TD Garden.

NBA Finals Odds: Oddsmakers Give Celtics 80 Percent Chance to Win After Game 1

NBA Finals Odds: Oddsmakers Give Celtics 80 Percent Chance to Win After Game 1

It took just one game -- one quarter really -- of the 2024 NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics to show why they had the best record in the NBA in the 2023-24 season and led the league in net rating.

Boston jumped out to the biggest first quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA Finals history, and it didn't let Dallas get closer than eight points the rest of the way in a blowout win.

The C's came into this series as -210 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, giving them an implied probability of over 60 percent to win the title. That has already changed drastically after Boston's Game 1 win.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Based on the latest odds at DraftKings, Boston has an implied probability of 80 percent to win the NBA Finals this season. While it was only one game, it's clear that Boston's dominance has altered the betting market in a big way.

A historical trend that dates back to the 1996-97 season also favors Boston, as no team that has finished outside the top eight in net rating during the regular season has gone on to win the NBA Finals since then.

Dallas is attempting to break that trend this season.

For bettors that still believe in the Mavericks, there is something to hang your hat on after Game 1.

Jason Kidd was just 1-5 (now 1-6) in Game 1s as the Mavericks' head coach, but he's led his team to a 5-1 series record so far in two playoff runs. Kidd has made the adjustments -- and his team has responded -- after other poor showings in series openers in the playoffs this season.

As a bettor who already has a Celtics future from the preseason in pocket, I'm standing pat ahead of Sunday's Game 2 based on the latest odds movement.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Celtics Rout Mavericks in Game 1 of NBA Finals After Explosive First Half

Celtics Rout Mavericks in Game 1 of NBA Finals After Explosive First Half

The Boston Celtics secured a 1–0 lead in the 2024 NBA Finals after taking care of business on their home court against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night in Game 1, 107–89.

The Celtics jumped out to a huge first-half lead, pulling ahead by as many as 29 points during the second quarter before heading into halftime up by 21. Although the Mavericks clawed back to within eight points in the third quarter, Boston was able to re-extend its advantage and shut the door on the series opener.

Kristaps Porzingis was sensational in his return to the lineup, making his first appearance for the Celtics since April 29, when he sustained a calf injury against the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs. The 28-year-old scored 20 points off the bench, providing a major offensive boost for the team.

Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum combined for 38 points, coming up with big plays on both ends of the floor as they helped guide their team to a Game 1 win. Tatum recorded a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds, while Brown came away with three steals and three blocks, alongside a team-high 22 points.

As for the Mavs, Luka Doncic's first taste of the NBA Finals was not what he'd been hoping for. The 25-year-old played well, but it wasn't enough to keep Dallas close. He scored a game-high 30 points while adding 10 rebounds and just one assist. Backcourt mate Kyrie Irving struggled in the loss, shooting 6 for 19 in a 12-point outing.

Dallas faltered as a whole from beyond the arc, making just 7 of 27 attempts from three-point range. Boston was vastly better, shooting 16 for 42 from deep, a difference which showed up on the scoreboard. The Mavericks' 89 points were their fewest this postseason.

Dallas will look to bounce back in Game 2, which is set for Sunday at 8 p.m. ET from TD Garden.

Best NBA Betting Odds and Trends for Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 1

Best NBA Betting Odds and Trends for Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 1

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and there's plenty to get to know before placing your wagers.

If you're looking for my best bets or the breakdown of Game 1 between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics, you can find them here on SI Betting!

Before you place any bets on Game 1, here's a look at the latest odds and some trends to know for Thursday night's series opener.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Boston Celtics as Home Favorites

There are several key trends to know ahead of Game 1, starting with Boston's record as a home favorite. The C's are 26-21-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points per game.

Boston also has the best against the spread record in the first half of games this season (63-32-1).

Dallas Mavericks on the Road

The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 against the spread on the road, but we can break that down even further.

As a road underdog, Dallas is 14-11 against the spread, which isn't as great, but it thrived as a road favorite, going 20-5 ATS. Unfortunately, the Mavs are road dogs in Game 1.

Game 1 Favorites Dominate Since 2005

Since 2005 Game 1 favorites are an insane 16-3 against the spread, and going back the past 30 years, they are 21-9 against the spread.

Boston is favored by 6.5 points in Game 1, and it has covered in two of the three opening games of its playoff series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 1 (Can Boston Cover?)

Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 1 (Can Boston Cover?)

After a week off, the NBA returns for the Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics matchup in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. 

Boston – the favorite in the series – comes into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite after Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and company rolled through the Eastern Conference, going 12-2 to reach the Finals.

The Mavericks have been a little more battle-tested, but they flexed their muscle in the Western Conference Finals to close the Minnesota Timberwolves out in five games behind four games of 32 points or more from Luka Doncic. 

Dallas has struggled in Game 1s in the Jason Kidd era, going 1-5 straight up, but 6.5 points is quite the spread for an opening game in the Finals. Can Boston, who had the No. 1 net rating in the regular season – and so far in the playoffs – show why it’s the favorite on Thursday?

Here’s our full betting preview with the latest odds, key players to watch and a best bet for Game 1: 

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Mavericks Injury Report

Celtics Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games. Luka really came on in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in all four of Dallas’ wins, and he is going to be the main focus for Boston’s defense in Game 1. 

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum: Jayson Tatum has not shot the ball well in the postseason – 44.2 percent from the field, 29.0 percent from 3 – but he’s made an impact elsewhere averaging over 10 rebounds and five assists per game. Tatum didn’t play his best in his first NBA Finals appearance in 2022, but the Celtics star has a better team around him – and that experience to lean on – in this series. 

Boston deserves a little more respect for its run to the Finals, even if it faced a few banged-up teams along the way.

The C’s needed just 14 games to get through the East, winning in blowouts against Miami and Cleveland as well as taking three games against the Indiana Pacers where the Pacers had a 90 percent win probability or higher in the fourth quarter of three of the four games. 

An interesting trend for Game 1 of the NBA Finals surfaced this week, showing that since 2005, the favorite is 16-3 ATS in Game 1. 

I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.

I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points. 

I’m worried about Dallas’ role players and whether or not they’ll make enough shots for key defenders like Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington to stay on the floor for the majority of the game. Boston, on the other hand, is going to be even deeper with Kristaps Porzingis likely back in action. 

I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1. 

Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jaylen Brown, Mavericks-Celtics Game 1)

Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jaylen Brown, Mavericks-Celtics Game 1)

At long last, the NBA Finals are just a day away, and I’m ready to lock in three plays for Game 1 – all of which end up being on the Boston side. 

Earlier this week, I made my official prediction for this series (Boston Celtics in 6), and like many NBA fans, I’m ready for this series between Boston and the Dallas Mavericks to start. 

This season, I’ve bet on the NBA every day that there have been games, and while we’re not positive on the year at the moment, a Celtics preseason future could get us there – depending upon how these Finals go. 

We’re starting strong in Game 1 with three plays – two props and one side – with Boston entering the game as a 6.5-point favorite.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jaylen Brown OVER 22.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jaylen Brown has been terrific in the playoffs, averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range.

Brown has been much more efficient than Jayson Tatum, and he finds himself with a points prop that is four points lower than his co-star in Game 1. 

I love the OVER here for Brown, who has cleared 22.5 points in nine of his 14 playoff games, including all four of his matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals.

While the return of Kristaps Porzingis could eat into Brown’s usage, I don’t expect KP to return to his normal role in his first game back from a calf injury. Brown has played a ton of minutes, clearing 40 in three of his last five games, and he’s taken at least 17 shots in 11 of 14 games this postseason. 

JB has some serious value at this number ahead of Game 1. 

Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit

Jrue Holiday may not win an ECF MVP or Finals MVP, but he has been a massive difference maker in his first season in Boston.

Holiday’s defensive prowess makes him a staple in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation, and dating back to the second round he’s really stuffed the stat sheet overall. 

Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game over his last seven games, clearing 22.5 PRA in six of those contests. 

I imagine Holiday will draw the assignment on either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, and he should play heavy minutes in Game 1. Betting on Boston props is a little volatile since we don’t know Porzingis’ usage, but this number has dropped significantly for Holiday compared to the 25.5 and 26.5’s that we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

The only NBA champion on the Boston roster should continue his strong play in Game 1. 

Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit

This week, it has felt like the trendy pick is to take the points with Dallas, who had a tougher road to the NBA Finals.

I’m going the other way. 

An interesting trend for Game 1 of the NBA Finals surfaced this week, showing that since 2005, the favorite is 16-3 ATS in Game 1. 

I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.

I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points. 

Boston – the best team in the NBA all season long – has been disrespected in my eyes entering this series. It went 12-2 on its run to the Finals and easily posted the best net rating of any team in the playoffs. 

I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s Relationship Is Fine, but Their Pairing Could Elevate With a Title

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s Relationship Is Fine, but Their Pairing Could Elevate With a Title

There are no issues between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Pressure? Well … 

Last week, the four-letter network made waves by reigniting a long-dormant debate about Tatum and Brown’s relationship. Only there is no debate. Tatum and Brown are fine. Always have been. They have known each other since high school, when they competed at an Under Armour camp. They are, as Brown noted last week, “polar opposites.” But whenever the trade rumors swirled around Brown over the years, Tatum has backed him. When Tatum won a gold medal at the 2021 Olympics, Brown celebrated with him. In ’22, while reporting a Sports Illustrated cover story on the Boston Celtics, I asked Tatum’s longtime trainer, Drew Hanlen, if he had any thoughts on the Tatum-Brown relationship.

“Jayson brags about how good Jaylen is,” Hanlen told me. “How there aren’t many players he would trade straight up for him. Any narrative that they didn’t like each other, that they can’t win together is totally made up.”

Indeed, they can win together. Boston has made six conference finals in the Tatum-Brown era. Two NBA Finals. Four seasons of 50-plus wins. In a league that covets elite two-way wings, the Celtics have a pair of them.

Still, Boston’s duo has reached a critical juncture. The 2022 Finals defeat was disappointing. But, in a way, excusable. The Golden State Warriors were elite. They had championship-level talent and years of experience with it. Did the Celtics gag away a potential 3–1 series lead in Game 4? Maybe. More accurate would be Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the Warriors went out and took it. 

“This time, this go-around is a lot different,” Tatum said. “You don’t always get a second chance, so really just looking at it as a second chance and trying to simplify things as much as we can.”

Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals.Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals.

Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals. / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Added Al Horford, “The first time [in 2022], it felt like a roller coaster, just a lot going on, increased coverage in media, all the responsibilities we had and everything that came with it. This time around, we all have an understanding. We know what things are like and I feel like we’ll be able to manage it better.”

This year, there are no Warriors. The Dallas Mavericks are good. They have Luka Doncic, a superstar. Kyrie Irving, a premiere wingman. P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II and Derrick Jones Jr. can play. The defense has improved considerably since midseason acquisitions to acquire Washington and Daniel Gafford. While the Celtics were cruising through the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers, the Mavericks were muscling out the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Still, the Celtics are heavy favorites. They are six deep with All-Star–level talent. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are elite defenders. Kristaps Porzingis, who appears to be tracking toward a Game 1 return, is a terror on both ends of the floor. Horford, who celebrated his 38th birthday on Monday, is ageless.

And they have Tatum and Brown. This has not been a flawless postseason run. There have been some clunkers. Tatum’s 7-for-17 performance in a Game 2 loss to Cleveland. Brown’s 0-for-6 three-point stat line in the same game. But the Celtics are 12–2 in the playoffs, with Tatum (26.0 points on 44.2% shooting) and Brown (25.0 points, 54.1% shooting) leading the way. 

Now, though, comes the real test. The scrutiny of Tatum and Brown’s relationship is unfair. “The whole thing about that really pisses me off,” coach Joe Mazzulla said. Raising expectations for their play is not. Curry and Thompson won’t be remembered for conference championships. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray aren’t defined by 50-win seasons. If Tatum and Brown want to be regarded as an elite duo, they need to win a title.

For years, Tatum has been among the NBA’s most scrutinized stars. He’s a great scorer … just not always in the clutch. He’s a strong defender … just not one of the best. Even as Tatum’s game has grown—in the post, at the rim, in his playmaking—he’s often viewed as a cut below the NBA’s best.   

Brown, too. Brown signed the richest contract in NBA history last summer. He responded with a season (23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, a career-best 3.6 assists) worthy of it. In Boston, Brown will always be the second star. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be one of the best wings in the game. 

Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals.Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals.

Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

“As long as my team knows my value, my city knows my value, my family, that’s all I really care about,” Brown said. “But I like to set my hat on just being a versatile two-way wing [who] can do both at any point in time.”

Tatum and Brown understand the stakes. A series win springboards them into rarified air, a tandem with a title, and a chance to win more. A loss opens them up for criticism and more questions about whether the pairing really works. 

“I think [it’s unfair] being compared to each other,” Mazzulla said. “They’re different. And you see other duos around the league don’t have to go through that. And it’s because of the platform that they have. It’s because they’ve been so successful their entire careers. They’ve been able to long stand success at a high level.”

Now it’s time to do it at the highest. Two years ago, in the immediate aftermath of a Game 6 loss, Tatum slumped in his locker. In TD Garden, the visiting locker room is directly across from the home one, making the roar of the Warriors’ celebration unavoidable. Walking to his car that night, Tatum could hear the Champagne-soaked afterparty still raging. He vowed never to forget that feeling. He swore he would never let an opportunity like that slip away again. Two years later, Tatum, still alongside Brown, will get that chance.