Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds and Pick for French Open Quarterfinal
After years of futile efforts, Jasmine Paolini is enjoying her career-best run at the 2024 French Open, into the quarterfinals for the first time in six attempts.
The World No. 15 has struggled at Roland-Garros but has won four straight to set up her first opponent inside the world No. 70 Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.
The world No. 4 Rybakina is enjoying her best appearance at the French Open since 2021, which ties for her career-best mark. Can she extend it and make the semifinals?
Here’s the full betting preview:
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Moneyline
Total: 20.5 (Over -110/Under -122)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
The two top 15 players have played two full matches against one another, both won by Rybakina, but the most recent one was a three-set match on (indoor) clay in Stuttgart (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). Paolini couldn’t make good on her second serves, winning 39% of those points and facing 15 break points to Rybakina’s seven BPs.
So, how can the Italian close the gap against Rybakina after facing a low level of competition thus far? I’d say it's on Paolini holding serve and dragging the match into potential tiebreak situations. Ryabakina has a vicious first serve on clay and has held on nearly 75% of her 70 tracked matches on clay, per TennisAbstract. However, she has only broken opponents on about 38% of return games.
A lot of Rybakina’s matches in the run-up to Roland-Garros featured longer matches. In eight clay court wins before the French Open, four of them went to three sets, including her win against Paolini. While I won’t call for the outright upset, I think we see a bit more resistance than the odds expect and this is a longer match.
I’ll back the over games as my preferred bet in this French Open quarterfinal.
PICK: OVER 20.5 Games (-110)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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