Category: Houston Astros

Walk-Off Wagers: Plus-money pitcher strikeout props to target (Framber Valdez and Nick Pivetta)
12 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Walk-Off Wagers: Plus-money pitcher strikeout props to target (Framber Valdez and Nick Pivetta)

Happy Hump Day!  It’s a great day for an entire day of major league baseball. 

If you want to get in on the action, I’ve found a couple of appealing plus-money strikeout props for you to consider: one for the afternoon and one for the evening slate. 

Let’s have some fun!  

Framber Valdez under 4.5 K (+120) at San Francisco Giants

Jun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY SportsJun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Jun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants' low strikeout rate has me looking at the under on Framber's K-prop today. The Giants have a 21.3% K-rate this season, resulting in an average of eight strikeouts per game. That K-rate drops even further to 20% when they face lefties. 

Framber Valdez pitched a complete game in his last outing, punching out eight Los Angeles Angels.  That's likely why we're getting good plus-money today for this under, even though Framber's 63.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starters with 40+ innings pitched and he is striking out batters at just seven per nine innings. 

Framber is averaging five strikeouts per game this season, so this isn't without risk, but the payout is appealing. He has gone under this prop in five of 10 starts this season. 

Nick Pivetta over 5.5 K (+105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Sep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsSep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Sep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Am I wrong, or is Nick Pivetta consistently under-appreciated? 

Pivetta is striking batters out at nearly 11 per nine, and his walk rate is among the best in the league.   That strikeout rate is even better when he is pitching at Fenway.  Pivetta has a K-rate of 12.23 at home this year.  

Philadelphia is not a high K-rate team, striking out just 20.4% of the time vs. righties this year (eighth-best in MLB), but historically, Pivetta has struck out this Phillies lineup at a rate of 26.8%, according to Statcast. 

Pivetta has exceeded this prop in five of eight starts this season, including four of his last five.  I'll take the value and bet he gets to six today. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros, MLB pitcher props, Nick Pivetta, phillies, pitcher props, pitcher strikeout props, Red Sox
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Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)
8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Saturday's MLB slate is headlined by the battle between the two favorites to win the World Series, the Dodgers against the Yankees in the Bronx.

The World Series preview in June takes center stage as all of Major League Baseball is in action on Saturday. Lucky for you, we have commentary on how to bet every game!

Keep reading to find out how we view each game on the Saturday slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pick: Mets (+150)

There’s some variance baked into this game with it being played in London as part of MLB’s London Series. 

With a short center field fence and the wind projected to be blowing out at London Stadium, this can be a short outing for the likes of Ranger Suarez, who is driving most of the opening odds in this game. 

Pick: Twins (-120)

Simeon Woods Richardson continues to thrive for the Twins in his first full season with the club, posting a 3.04 ERA while showcasing excellent control, posting a walk rate of only six percent. The Minnesota starter will match up against Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski, who will put a ton of pressure on the Pittsburgh below average bullpen. 

With the pitching edge, including a better pen, I’ll take the Twins as short road favorites. 

Pick: Nationals (+120)

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA. 

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June. 

Pick: Athletics (+135)

The Blue Jays remain a non starter for me as a road favorite, even against the lowly A’s. 

Kevin Gausman has been overvalued all season, and Toronto is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. The right hander has an ERA of 4.60 while his xERA is far worse at 5.26, per MLBStatcast. He is striking out only 22% of batters, the lowest rate since 2018, and remains a worthy fade. 

Pick: Brewers (-165)

Freddy Peralta has been outstanding this season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he has faced while keeping his walk rate below eight percent, about the big league average. 

It’ll be tough sledding for the Tigers lineup that is bottom third in Major League Baseball in OPS while the Brewers are far better at generating run support for its pitching staff, fourth in the same metric. 

Pick: Royals (+115)

The Royals rallied to win 10-9 on Friday, and the team remains a great bet at home, 23-10 at Kauffman Stadium this season. 

Kansas City will have a stiff test against Luis Castillo, but the Royals ability to generate power is notable considering Castillo has allowed a barrel percentage in the 28th percentile this season, per MLBStatcast, and allows a high fly ball rate of over 60%. 

Pick: Rays (+115)

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday. 

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues. 

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon. 

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year. 

Pick: Reds (-120)

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team. 

It also helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott. 

Pick:Red Sox (-205)

Chicago snapped a 13 game skid on Friday, but I’m not counting on two wins in a row. 

Pick: Rockies (+160)

Can Kyle Gibson justify this price tag? The veteran pitcher has a 3.69 ERA that is supported by a 4.99 xERA with a walk rate hovering around 10%. 

For what it’s worth, Ryan Feltner pitches better on the road than at the hitter friendly Coors Field, so I can get behind him outperforming expectations. 

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The two best teams in baseball continue its weekend series, and I’ll side with the road underdog given the Yankees’ overall fitness with Juan Soto’s status in doubt for the foreseeable future. 

If New York’s lineup isn’t at its best, it’ll be tough to keep up with the Dodgers, who have the highest OPS against left handed pitching this season. 

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland is the far more talented side here and should have little issue snagging a road win. 

Ben Lively’s strikeout rate is at a career high of 23% and the Guardians have the clear offensive edge, 11th in OPS against the Marlins, who check in 29th. 

Pick: Diamondbacks (+125)

I’ll take Arizona to stay hot in June, winners of five of six, at an underdog price. 

Ryne Nelson isn’t a strikeout-focused pitcher, only 14.9%, but he has limited his walks to only six percent, which is impactful against a Padres team that is reliant on drawing walks to get runners on base. Nelson’s ERA is also due to come down from his mark of 5.44, with an xERA of 4.77. 

Pick: Astros (-165)

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been among the best pitchers in baseball, but I expect a tough summer for the veteran left hander. 

He has an ERA of 2.37, which is staggering to see given some of his other numbers, including a 16% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, his xERA is 4.49, making him ripe for a few blow ups as the season continues. 

I’ll count on Saturday against a Houston lineup that is top five in OPS against southpaws. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Arizona Diamondbacks, atlanta braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, MLB best bets, MLB Betting Preview, MLB Picks, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
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Blue Jays Designate Cavan Biggio, Son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, for Assignment
7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Blue Jays Designate Cavan Biggio, Son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, for Assignment

One of the core pieces of the Toronto Blue Jays' late-2010s rebuild appears to be on the way out the door.

The Blue Jays have designated second baseman and right fielder Cavan Biggio for assignment, the team announced Friday evening. In a corresponding move, Toronto recalled first baseman and designated hitter Spencer Horwitz from the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons.

Once a promising prospect, Biggio has struggled mightily in 2024. The son of Hall of Fame second baseman, catcher and center fielder Craig Biggio is slashing .200/.323/.291 with two home runs and nine RBIs this season.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are off to a 30–32 start after an 89–73 showing in 2023.

As a rookie in 2019, Biggio hit 16 home runs in 100 games—good enough to finish fifth in the voting for American League Rookie of the Year. He hit for the cycle on Sept. 17 of that year and performed well in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but couldn't quite get over hump even as Toronto began to win consistently.

Cavan Biggio, Craig Biggio, Houston Astros, MLB, Toronto Blue Jays
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Every MLB Team's World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season
7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Arizona Diamondbacks, atlanta braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, MLB, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, World Series
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Juan Soto's AL MVP Odds Plummet Following Injury Scare
7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Juan Soto’s AL MVP Odds Plummet Following Injury Scare

UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.

What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.

New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."

Soto, who is off to a great start this season, was one of the favorites to win the American League MVP award entering Thursday night's action.

However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.

Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.

That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.

Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.

The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.

Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.

The odds for the AL MVP are much different at DraftKings Sportsbook.

In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.

Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.

The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.

Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.

If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.

The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.

I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.

Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Aaron Judge, Baltimore Orioles, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Houston Astros, Juan Soto, Kansas City Royals, Kyle Tucker, MVP, New York Yankees
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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Chris Sale Primed to Bounce Back)
7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Chris Sale Primed to Bounce Back)

Friday features a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball action, and there are plenty of ways to bet in the prop market with so many teams playing. 

I’ve narrowed down my picks for Friday’s slate to just three, with two starting pitchers and one red-hot hitter getting the nod. 

The game of the night on Friday is likely between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may need to have a big game after Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s contest with left forearm discomfort. 

Judge is one of the three players I’m targeting tonight, so let’s dive into the picks for June 7: 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Sale to Record a Win (-110)

Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is coming off a rough outing to open June, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the A’s, but I think he’s due for a bounce-back showing against the Washington Nationals on Friday.

Sale was terrific in May, allowing just two earned runs across five starts (32.0 innings of work), so I’m not reading too much into his clunker to start June.

The Braves are 8-3 in Sale’s 11 starts this season, and he’s earned the decision in every win, posting an 8-1 record. Prior to his last outing, Sale had earned the win in seven consecutive starts.

Rather than laying the price on the Braves moneyline, I like taking Sale to earn the win against a Washington team that struggles against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in MLB in OPS.

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-125)

Judge and Soto have been the best duo in baseball this season, but if Soto misses this game – or extended time – Judge may see less pitches to hit going forward.

As it is, Judge has drawn at least one walk in five straight games, and he’s racked 52 total walks in 64 games so far in 2024. 

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t walk a ton of hitters (just 14 in 12 starts), but I can’t imagine he’ll look to attack Judge every at bat with Soto likely out of the lineup on Friday. 

Judge has been great at drawing walks and getting on base for years, so I’ll gladly take him at this price on Friday. 

Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has a tough matchup on Friday, as he’s taking on the Houston Astros, who strikeout a league-low 6.83 times per game this season.

Canning has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 outings in 2024, and he struck out just two Houston batters across five innings in his first outing against the Stros this season. 

Overall, Canning ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, so I don’t see him racking up a huge number on this prop against the least strikeout prone offense in the league.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Aaron Judge, atlanta braves, Chris Sale, Griffin Canning, Houston Astros, Juan Soto, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals
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MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money
7 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money

Happy Tuesday!  

Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings. 

Braves ML +145 at DraftKings   

Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.

But I digress.

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Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.

Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.   

The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams. 

The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB. 

The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home.  After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing. 

Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings 

The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.

So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves? 

Justin Verlander.

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Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander takes the mound Tuesday.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched.  Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.

Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Astros, best bets, Betting Odds, Braves, Houston Astros, MLB, MLB bets, Red Sox, Verlander, Yankees
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MLB Best Bets for Astros vs Guardians: Houston Stays Hot at Home
1 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

MLB Best Bets for Astros vs Guardians: Houston Stays Hot at Home

Do the Houston Astros have their mojo back?

Maybe.

They’re now on a three-game win streak after defeating the Cleveland Guardians in dramatic extra-innings walk-off fashion at home Tuesday night. The final score was 9-8.

Perhaps it was the energy change of Jose Abreu DFA-ing himself to work on his swing, or maybe it’s just that the pitching rotation is getting healthier, but either way, I’m willing to bet on it.

Justin Verlander gets the ball tonight at home, and he has looked strong to start the season, allowing only two earned runs across his first two starts (10 ⅓ innings pitched). However, his xERA of 4.50, according to Statcast, suggests there could be some regression. Keep your eye on Jose Ramirez, who has excellent career numbers vs. Verlander. 

Triston McKenzie gets the start for Cleveland. McKenzie is pitching with a torn ligament in his left elbow (true story), which seems to have affected his command. McKenzie has walked 6.95 batters per nine innings this year, which could spell trouble vs. a Houston team that no longer has Abreu as an automatic out. Despite their lack of wins, the Astros have the third-best BA in MLB (.265), the fifth-highest SLG (.419), and the fifth-best OPS (.750).

The Guardians have been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to RISP, while the Astros have been one of the worst teams when it comes to relief pitching. Despite their star power, the Astros bullpen could be shaky today with many relievers—including closer Josh Hader—likely unavailable after being used in Tuesday night’s extra innings.  

When I add all this up, all signs point to the over on the game total of nine runs tonight at the Juice Box. 

Expect Jose Altuve and Jeremey Pena to get hits, and Triston McKenzie to strike out fewer than 4.5 batters. The Astros have the lowest K rate in MLB at just 16.6%, and McKenzie has struck out no more than two batters in each of his last three starts. 

The Astros are -175 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win, so if you don’t like the payout but want to shy away from the run line, consider an SGP (same-game parlay) with one of the player props mentioned above. 

The Astros have won five of their last seven matchups with the Guardians dating back to 2023. 

The Bets, with odds coming via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Astros -1.5 (+120)

Over 9 runs (-108) 

Triston McKenzie under 4.5 K (-195)

Houston Astros, MLB, Sports Betting
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Astros Demote Former AL MVP to Minor Leagues After Protracted Slump to Start Season
30 Apr 24 Jimm Sallivan

Astros Demote Former AL MVP to Minor Leagues After Protracted Slump to Start Season

It would be hard to script a worse start to a season than José Abreu's first 22 games of 2024.

A year after a solid-if-not-spectacular first season with the Houston Astros, Abreu is slashing .099/.156/.113 with no home runs and three RBI in 22 games. The Astros are struggling as well, with a record of 9-19 relegating them to the American League West's basement.

On Tuesday, Houston took a drastic step. According to general manager Dana Brown, the Astros and Abreu have agreed on a demotion to the FCL Astros of the Florida Complex League in West Palm Beach, Fla. "to get (Abreu) some at-bats and his timing back right."

Abreu, 37, has been a consistent performer since debuting for the Chicago White Sox in 2014. He finished fourth in the AL MVP voting after a sensational rookie season, and was named the AL's MVP following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Houston signed Abreu to a three-year, $59 million contract in Nov. 2022. The Astros open a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday in Texas.

Houston Astros, Jose Abreu, MLB
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