College football season is drawing closer, and the 2024 season is set to be the most unique one yet.
The 2024 College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams this season, featuring the top four ranked conference champion teams receiving a first round BYE with teams seeded five through 12 featuring the other Power 5 conference champion and the next six highest ranked teams in the eyes of the College Football Playoff Committee.
This is a big change that will open up the field for many schools to compete on the biggest stage for a National Championship, but the odds at the top remain quite the same, with Georgia as the clear favorite, the winner of two of the past three Naitonal Championships.
However, the odds are shifting for more teams further down the board, once viewed as complete non factors in the National Championship picture, as seen below.
Georgia narrowly missed out on the opportunity to three-peat in the CFP last season, but Kirby Smart's bunch are expected to be right in the mix in this season, listed as the favorite with potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 Carson Beck under center.
Behind Georgia is a handful of loaded teams, including Ohio State, who will look to prevail in the new-look Big Ten with Kansas State transfer Will Howard replacing Kyle McCord as well as Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins joining the likes of TreVeyon Henerson in the backfield to mkae a potent offense around an elite defense.
Two teams on the move are expected to adjust quickly with Texas jumping to the SEC this season with Quinn Ewers at quarterback in hopes of making it back to the CFP and into the National Championship picture. In addition, Oregon is now in the Big Ten with Oklahoma transfer filling in for now Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and the Ducks firmly in the mix to breakthrough this season after failing to make the CFP since 2014.
While the cream will likely rise to the top, for the first time ever, there are more teams truly viable to make the postseason, and with that more opportunities for teams to make a run in the postseason, more similar to the NFL style.
Overall, there are 10 teams with odds of +2500 or shorter, making this by default the most wide open College Football Playoff field in history.
Stay tuned for more coverage this offseason ahead of what should be an epic season in the first of the new college football.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
We’re into the month of the schedule being released and spring practices (aka OTAs) starting, so let’s get into it …
• The New England Patriots’ expectation, I believe, is coming closer to reality, with the team honing in on finalizing its football operations structure for 2024.
With the blessing of the league office, New England punted on hiring a “primary football executive” in January. That role had been filled by coach Bill Belichick, was vacated upon his firing and wasn’t conferred over to Belichick’s replacement on the coaching side, Jerod Mayo. The idea from ownership here, as we explained in January, was to do a thorough vetting of the football operation as it stood, before making big-picture decisions post-draft.
Why? Well, because the Krafts felt like, to a large degree, Belichick’s shadow had been cast for years over capable people in the scouting department. From the selection of N’Keal Harry over Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown in the first round in 2019, to a mass exodus of personnel folks right around that time, it was apparent to ownership that Belichick’s decisions didn’t always jibe with the evaluations of his scouts.
So Robert and Jonathan Kraft resolved to give the guys in-house, whom they liked, a chance to show what they had without that shadow enveloping them. They moved Eliot Wolf—son of Hall of Fame executive Ron Wolf, and with experience as the No. 2 with two different franchises—into the top role, leapfrogging him over director of player personnel Matt Groh with the belief that Wolf was best prepared and suited for a GM-type of job.
As such, Wolf got a three-month audition to show what he had, with Groh and Pat Stewart, who came up in the Patriots’ system, and was a top exec in Carolina under Matt Rhule and Scott Fitterer, as his top lieutenants. And the Krafts did leave a breadcrumb out there for anyone who wanted it, authorizing the hire of Alonzo Highsmith, who came up with Wolf in Green Bay, and went with him to work for John Dorsey in Cleveland.
And now, all signs are pointing toward Wolf landing the job in New England, to the degree where the Patriots have been turned down by prospective candidates with other teams that they’ve sought to interview (such as Buffalo’s Terrance Gray and Cincinnati’s Trey Brown), with those candidates leery that this is a done deal.
The truth being that it probably is.
• The one other detail on that to watch is how they handle the new primary football executive’s title. This will be Kraft’s 33rd season owning the Patriots, and he’s never had a general manager in title. Bobby Grier, Scott Pioli, Nick Caserio, Dave Ziegler and Matt Groh all entered the top scouting role under the title of director of player personnel. Grier and Pioli eventually ascended to vice president of the player personnel.
The last Patriots GM was Patrick Sullivan, the son of then owner Billy Sullivan. He held the title from 1983 to ’91.
Now, there would be a very real and functional reason to give someone like Wolf the title. Doing it would allow for the team to hire an assistant GM, and that title allows you to poach from another team without the other team having to let such a person out of their contract. So theoretically, the Patriots could use the GM interviews to search for an assistant GM, then use that assistant GM title to pull the candidate away from another organization.
If the Patriots were to do something like that, it’d be smart to look toward the Packers’ organization, and maybe someone like director of pro scouting Richmond Williams, to find guys who’d fit under Wolf.
• Great news from Cincinnati, where the Bengals released video of Joe Burrow, back from surgery on his throwing wrist, spinning the ball as he normally would (albeit with a sleeve over his right arm) inside the team’s practice bubble. He also told the team website that the timetable has allowed for him to have a relatively normal offseason, since he wouldn’t be throwing in earnest until OTAs, which is when he usually ramps things up anyway.
My understanding is that, through two days of throwing on-site, his velocity and deep range have been normal, and he’s in great shape, while there is a little rust and the team is monitoring his workload. I’d expect the Bengals to be careful with their franchise quarterback (with rest days, etc.), especially since he somehow still hasn’t had a full and normal offseason as a pro. Burrow lost time to ACL rehab in 2021, appendicitis in ’22 and a calf injury last summer.
• Every year, there’s a lot of noise in May over who the top quarterbacks will be in the following year’s draft. This year is no different. And sometimes, it can be tough to decipher what’s real, and what’s not (remember Spencer Rattler’s “stock” in the summer of 2021).
So I’d just say looking at the names, the guy I’ve heard the most real, genuine, this-guy-could-make it buzz in a class that looks just so-so right now is Georgia's Carson Beck. Scouts visiting Athens in November were alerted to the reality that he was almost certainly returning to school for a fourth season. But at that point, there was a thought that he could be taken in the top half of the first round in 2024. Making the idea of that real for ’25.
Obviously, we’ll be talking plenty about guys such as Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Texas’s Quinn Ewers too.
• The addition of Tyler Boyd to the Titans’ roster is a sharp one for Brian Callahan, who was together with the veteran receiver in Cincinnati. Every new head coach is well-served to have people who know the program, and the coach’s expectations, coming in. And until now, Callahan had only Chidobe Awuzie coming over from the Bengals with him.
That Boyd’s a pro’s pro only adds to the logic of the signing.
• It’s worth mentioning here, given the battle royale that’s ensued between college all-star games over the past few years, that the Senior Bowl remains at the top of the heap. Among the players who at least participated in practices at the various all-star games, the Senior Bowl had 25 of the 26 guys taken in the first two rounds (including all 10 first-rounders), and a 45-5-1 edge over the East/West Shrine Bowl and Hula Bowl, respectively, over the first four rounds.
Also, the one Hula Bowler taken in the first four rounds, Boston College CB and Arizona Cardinals third-rounder Elijah Jones, was a late injury add to the Senior Bowl, meaning he’d been high on their list. So … good job by Jim Nagy and the folks in Mobile on all of that.
• The Panthers added Rashaad Penny to a crowded running back group that already has Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, which, rightfully, raised some question on the readiness of second-round pick Jonathon Brooks, who tore his ACL in November as a Texas junior.
My understanding is that Brooks will be held out of spring drills, with the expectation that he’s cleared on July 1, and starts training camp on a pitch count. That should give him a chance to play from the start of his rookie year, though he’ll have fewer early opportunities to make an impression on new coach Dave Canales and his staff. (It is worth noting that Penny was with Canales in Seattle for the first five years of his career.)
• Keep an eye on Chiefs fourth-rounder Jared Wiley. Some saw him as a top guy in the tight end group behind Brock Bowers in his class, and he turned some heads at the team’s rookie minicamp (his raw size and hands stood out). Plus, he’ll get to learn from a pretty good one.
• Not for nothing, I think the Vikings are pretty comfortable with Sam Darnold playing quarterback, which gives them flexibility with J.J. McCarthy. I’d also expect that Kevin O’Connell will have a detailed set of markers for McCarthy to hit as he tries to compete to become the starter. So if he does, that’s great news for the team. And if he hits the normal rookie speedbumps, that’s O.K. too, with Darnold in tow.
• Justin Simmons is one current free agent I’d be calling if I were a team.
The University of Georgia and head football coach Kirby Smart have agreed to a two-year contract extension that makes him the highest-paid head coach in college football, according to a report from Seth Emerson of The Athletic.
Smart's contract now runs through December 2033 and will pay him an annual salary of $13 million per year, a $1.75 million annual raise from his original deal, and bonuses up to $1.55 million.
In his eight years leading the football program at Georgia, the Bulldogs have become the standard in the SEC. Smart is 94–16 overall since taking over in 2016 and has led the program to three national championship games, winning two of them. In total, Smart is 9–2 in bowl games in his time with the Bulldogs.
Smart is the best coach in college football, and has been for the last few years. He is now being compensated like it with his new deal, which makes him the sport's highest-paid coach.
In addition, Georgia announced a contract extension for athletic director Josh Brooks, whose contract aligns with Smart's through 2030. Brooks will now be paid an annual salary of $1.275 million per year, and will increase by $100,000 each year. He will also be eligible to earn bonuses up to $200,000 per year throughout the life of the contract.
Georgia finished with a 13–1 record last season, with the lone loss coming to Alabama in the SEC championship game, which kept the Bulldogs out of the College Football Playoff. Georgia went on to defeat Florida State in the Orange Bowl 63–3.