I have been a running back truther for as long as I can remember playing fantasy football. My first-ever draft pick came back in 1998 when I took Terrell Davis. I later traded for then-rookie Fred Taylor. Can you say championship?
Since then, I’ve focused my early-round picks on runners. From Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, and LaDainian Tomlinson in the past to the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall in more recent years, getting a few stud runners was always at the forefront of my fantasy roster build.
So, when the “Zero RB Strategy” was introduced by Shawn Siegeleback in 2013, I scoffed. This philosophy is based on completely avoiding running backs in the first five rounds. Instead, fantasy fans load up on wide receivers, a tight end, and a quarterback before turning their attention to the running back position. To me, it made zero sense. After all, backs have long been the lifeblood of fantasy football!
Why the hell would I avoid that?
In my opinion, the Zero RB strategy required a lot of luck. You had to hope at least a few of the backs you drafted after the first five rounds panned out, and many times those lottery tickets ended up in the waiver wire garbage. If you didn’t land a breakout or sleeper runner on the wire either, well, your backfield was likely trash. In this scenario, a bad backfield was a fantasy death sentence.
Then, the 2022 season happened.
A few of the running backs we’ve leaned on for years, like Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Leonard Fournette (to name a few), saw their totals decline at some level. The top overall pick, Jonathan Taylor, finished as the RB32, making it the third straight year the consensus top pick was a runner who failed to meet expectations. We also saw a further increase in the number of backfield committees emerge around the league.
At the same time, wide receivers thrived.
Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb were among the young wideouts who were rising up. A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith (to name a few) also thrived for fantasy fans. And while the position isn’t completely clear of injuries (Cooper Kupp), it’s far less likely a receiver will suffer a long-term ailment compared to a running back. That’s part of the reason we are seeing so many runners holding out over current contractual issues while No. 2 and 3 wide receivers are getting their bags.
This has been the perfect storm of sorts, and it’s created a huge shift in the importance of wideouts. In the high-stakes world of the NFFC, where some of the best fantasy players play for oodles of dough, eight of the top 12 overall picks are wideouts. What’s more, 17 of the first 36 picks (top three rounds) are receivers. It’s a different world, folks.
When we include these factors, plus the emergence of the top-tier quarterbacks and tight ends as top-50 overall choices, we’re now seeing running backs getting pushed down draft boards. It’s created a scenario where (I can’t believe I’m saying this), the Zero RB Strategy is a more viable approach. In fact, I have even used it in the last two years.
Do I use this all the time? No. I prefer an altered version where I draft three wideouts in the first four rounds. The other two picks are likely running backs. I’ve also used the “Hero RB” philosophy, which has managers grab a running back in Round 1 and then go with wide receivers in each of the next three rounds. It all depends on where you’re drafting and the flow of the draft, but I’ve pushed runners down in my top 200 regardless.
That doesn’t mean I’m avoiding the position altogether, of course. Besides CMC, I’d love to get Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall or Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round this yaer. But when you look at the ADP data, there are more elite runners on the board later in drafts.
Right now, you can draft productive running backs like Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner and D’Andre Swift outside of the top 50. Breakout/sleeper runners, who used to go in the top 50 when managers would reach at the position, are also on the board much later. This season, that list includes the likes of Zamir White, Jonathon Brooks and Zack Moss, who are all available outside the top 80 based on the current ADP data at the NFFC. Heck, you can even get Nick Chubb outside of the top 90. I know he’s coming off a gruesome knee injury, but he’d have been picked much higher in past years.
This strategy isn’t for everyone. Heck, I’ve even said I don’t follow it to a tee. It might be my long love affair with running backs that keeps me from avoiding the position with each of my first five picks. With that said, I am far more likely to have three and maybe four wide receivers on my roster with my first five picks than I would have five years ago.
Don’t be afraid to make that switch to your draft strategies either. Offenses around the NFL have evolved, and fantasy managers should follow. I did. Much like Jedi master Yoda told Luke Skywalker in The Empire Strikes Back, “you must unlearn what you have learned.”
Greatness is difficult to achieve, and it can be even more difficult to duplicate. That’s why I always preach to fantasy football managers, new and old, to “beware the magical season" when preparing for drafts.
The NFL has had more than its share of players who failed to make good after a "magical" season. Remember Braylon Edwards, who looked like a fantasy star when he posted 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Browns in 2007? He went on to score 15 more touchdowns ... the rest of his career.
A more recent example is Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards and was the RB3 with the Raiders in 2022. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive last season. Jacobs rushed for 848 fewer yards and averaged 5.2 fewer fantasy points, finishing just 28th among fantasy runners.
There are countless other examples too, some of which include former gridiron greats. Heck, Dan Marino threw for almost 1,000 fewer passing yards and 18 fewer touchdowns (1985) following what was the best statistical campaign of his Hall-of-Fame career in 1984. Even Marino isn't exempt!
The point here is one monster season doesn't guarantee another, even if an elite athlete recorded it. So, which players who exceeded expectations last season might be in line for a decline in their statistical success in 2024?
Here's a list of 20 players, some of whom are elite fantasy players, who will still likely struggle to produce the same statistics from a season ago.
Josh Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns: Allen and Jalen Hurts both rushed for 15 scores a season ago, which is the most by a quarterback in league history. What’s more, there’s only been six quarterbacks to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in a single season in the Super Bowl era. That list includes Allen, Hurts (2), Cam Newton (2), Kyler Murray, Kordell Stewart and Daunte Culpepper. Allen had never rushed for more than nine touchdowns in a single season before this past season, so I expect that 15-score total to decline.
Jalen Hurts’ 15 rushing touchdowns: Hurts is in the same boat as Allen, as he’ll struggle to hit the 15-rushing touchdown total again. The good news, though, is Hurts hit double digits in that category each of his last three seasons. Still, I’m more comfortable with a 10-TD projection, especially with fantasy superstar running back Saquon Barkley in the backfield.
Justin Herbert’s 35.1 pass attempts per game: The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season under Kellen Moore, and Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served in that role for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. During that time, the most pass attempts one of his quarterbacks has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone QB to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert, who will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 35.1 attempts.
Matthew Stafford’s late-season run: Stafford finished last year as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performances just once before in his career (2013). I wouldn’t expect the veteran to duplicate such a productive span of games again.
Breece Hall’s 95 targets and 76 receptions: Hall finished last season as the RB2, due in part to a serious statistical run in the second half that saw him emerge as a huge option in the Jets pass attack. In his first eight games, Hall averaged 3.9 targets and 2.9 catches. He went off in his final 10 games, however, averaging a stout 6.8 targets and 5.7 receptions.
That rise in targets and catches came in large part because of the quarterbacks the Jets were using. Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle started a combined five games (played in eight), and they targeted Hall a ton out of the backfield. The duo combined to target running backs on nearly 30 percent of their pass attempts! By comparison, Aaron Rodgers targeted his runners as receivers in just 20.7% of his passes in his last season in Green Bay.
Raheem Mostert’s 21 touchdowns: Mostert came out of nowhere to score 21 times last season. He had scored just 19 touchdowns in his previous eight years … combined! Those touchdowns made up for 47 percent of his 267.7 points, so regression is coming. Heck, even if Mostert scores eight to 10 touchdowns in 2024, I’d consider that a major win as a fantasy manager.
Aaron Jones’ late-season touches: Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush, and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged a robust 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 fantasy points. That is a massive increase for the veteran runner.
If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He also rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this “magical” stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games! So, as good as he was in this stretch, it’s likely to be an outlier.
Gus Edwards’ 13 rushing touchdowns: Edwards was a red-zone machine last season, scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground. He had rushed for 13 touchdowns in his previous four years … combined! So, while he will be in the run-based offense of new coordinator Greg Roman in Los Angeles, Edwards will have competition for touches in the form of J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal. Six to eight touchdowns might be more attainable.
Puka Nacua’s 1,575 receiving yards: Nacua was a stat monster last season, finishing fourth in fantasy points among wideouts. He did it, in large part, based on his rookie-record 1,575 receiving yards. That begs the question … what if Cooper Kupp stays healthy for most of this season?
After all, Nacua averaged 78.7 yards in the 12 games he played with Kupp last season. That would be around 1,338 yards over a full season. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 108.4 yards. That would project to over 1,840 yards. So, anyone who is drafting Nacua in the first round and expecting a duplication of his 2023 yardage totals has to be doing so with the thought Kupp is going to miss a portion of the season. If not, Nacua might end up being less productive in terms of real and fantasy football.
Stefon Diggs 160 targets: Diggs averaged 9.4 targets per game last season and was sixth in targets among wideouts. It was the fourth straight year he had seen at least 154 targets. That trend is unlikely to continue though, as he now joins a crowded receiver’s room with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. With Collins averaging 7.3 targets per game and Dell at just under seven, it’s difficult to see Diggs getting over nine per game, not to mention 160 targets. Instead, I’d project him for closer to 130-140 unless injuries occur.
Keenan Allen’s 1,249 receiving yards: Some might have forgotten because he was injured late in the season, but Allen was an elite fantasy wideout in his first 13 games. That won’t be the case this season, though. With his move to the Bears, he’ll have to share targets with DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. Also, keep this in mind … the Bears have had only nine wide receivers post 1,000-plus yards in the Super Bowl era. What’s more, the offense has produced multiple 1,000-yard WRs in the same season twice (1995, 2013).
Courtland Sutton’s 85.6% catchable target rate: Sutton finished as the WR35 last year, which came even though he scored 10 touchdowns and was third among wideouts (min. 75 targets) in catchable target rate. That came because of Russell Wilson, who ranked third in adjusted completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 10 games played. That stat factors in drops, spikes, throwaways, hits as the ball is thrown and batted balls, per Fantasy Points Data. With a rookie in Bo Nix or Zach Wilson (QB21 in ADJ CMP%), Sutton will likely see far fewer accurate passes in the Broncos offense.
Rashee Rice late-season target share: Rice was one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football in the second half of last season, ranking WR8 based on points over the final eight weeks. In that time, he saw 23.9% of the wide receiver targets in Kansas City, compared to a 12.6% share in his first 10 contests. The Chiefs added Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy in the offseason, however, which will no doubt put a dent into Rice’s share. He is also expected to be suspended for off-field issues, decreasing his value further.
DeAndre Hopkins’ 137 targets: Hopkins has long been a fantasy star, but he’s started to lose a little of his sparkle. He posted an average of 13.2 fantasy points per game last year, which is his lowest total since his rookie campaign, and it took him 137 targets to do it. With the addition of Calvin Ridley, who saw 136 targets last season, not to mention Tyler Boyd, who knows the offense of new head coach Brian Callahan, and Nuk’s target share is in serious danger of dropping even further as he enters his age-33 campaign.
Jordan Addison’s 10 receiving touchdowns: Addison finished a solid WR23 as a rookie, mostly on the strength of his 10 touchdown catches. The problem is seven of those scores came with Kirk Cousins throwing him the football. In the nine games without him, Addison found the end zone just three times. Who knows, maybe journeyman San Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy will exceed expectations, but 10 scores for Addison seems unlikely.
Adam Thielen’s 231 PPR fantasy points: Thielen was a star in the first half of last season, ranking eighth in fantasy points among wideouts while averaging 17.8 points. His stats went south the rest of the season, however, as Thielen was the WR43 in his final eight games with an average of 8.9 points. With the additions of Dionte Johnson and Xavier Legette, Thielen will struggle to hit even the 200-point mark during his age-34 campaign.
Evan Engram’s 963 receiving yards: Engram is coming off a career season that saw him put up 963 yards, which is 197 more yards than his previous high (2022). Fantasy managers should keep in mind, however, he was more effective when Christian Kirk was out. In five games without Kirk, Engram averaged a robust 71.4 yards. Compare that to the 50.5 yards he averaged when Kirk was active, and it’s obvious Engram’s ceiling was affected. Also, the Jaguars added Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. in the offseason.
David Njoku’s 882 receiving yards: Njoku was a fantasy star last season, finishing sixth among tight ends in total fantasy points. He was also sixth in yards at the position. Where I’m concerned is in his splits with and without Deshaun Watson. When Joe Flacco was in place of an injured Watson, Njoku averaged 78 yards per game. With Watson under center, that total shrunk to a modest 38.3 yards. The Browns also added wideout Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, so Njoku could be hard-pressed to post more than 650 yards.
Cole Kmet’s touchdown market share: Kmet was a popular target for Justin Fields in the red zone last season, posting a 31.6% receiving touchdown market share (min. 75 targets) per Fantasy Points Data. That was second best behind only Sam LaPorta. Unfortunately, that percentage seems destined to fall with the trio of Moore, Allen, and Odunze at wide receiver, not to mention the addition of veteran tight end Gerald Everett, in 2024.
Jonnu Smith’s 70 targets: There was a time last season when Smith was a startable asset in fantasy leagues, even outscoring his former teammate, Kyle Pitts. Unfortunately, his move to Miami will not benefit him in the stat sheets. Since coach Mike McDaniel took over the offense, his tight ends have averaged a league-low 2.2 fantasy points per game. Their tight ends also ranked dead last in targets, receptions and yards, and they’re tied for the second-fewest touchdowns scored. That’s bad news for Smith’s fantasy appeal.
With the calendar hitting the middle of June, we are quickly getting into the fantasy football draft season. To help build your strategies and give you a look into what your drafts might look like, I’ve done yet another of my one-man, 10-round mock drafts to help you determine which fantasy players might be picked where in your upcoming leagues.
This mock draft includes 12 teams and is based on a full PPR scoring system. Each team is required to start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end and two flex starters (non-super flex).
No kickers or D/STs were required in this mock.
Each team went into the draft with a different strategy in the first five rounds.
1.1. Team 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers 1.2. Team 2: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys 1.3. Team 3: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins 1.4. Team 4: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings 1.5. Team 5: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions 1.6. Team 6: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals 1.7. Team 7: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons 1.8. Team 8: Breece Hall, RB, Jets 1.9. Team 9: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles 1.10. Team 10: Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles 1.11. Team 11: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions 1.12. Team 12: Puka Nacua, WR, Rams
Notes: This is going to be a mostly chalk top-12 picks. McCaffrey will lead the way, and Robinson, Hall, Barkley and Gibbs are all worth first-round picks at running back. Some might not think as highly about Barkley, but he was the RB13 last season in a lousy offense and missed three games. Imagine what he could be in Philadelphia! I have Lamb as the top wideout, slightly ahead of Hill and Jefferson (who has a questionable situation at quarterback but should still produce). In all, seven of the top 12 picks are wideouts. That includes Nacua, who busted out last season and now ranks far ahead of his veteran teammate in Los Angeles, Cooper Kupp.
ROUND 2
2.13. Team 12: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets 2.14. Team 11: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts 2.15. Team 10: Marvin Jarrison Jr., WR, Cardinals 2.16. Team 9: Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars 2.18. Team 7: Davante Adams, WR, Raiders 2.19. Team 6: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts 2.20. Team 5: Chris Olave, WR, Saints 2.21. Team 4: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers 2.22. Team 3: Drake London, WR, Falcons 2.23. Team 2: Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers 2.24. Team 1: Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
Notes: This round is also dominated by wide receivers, with seven coming off the board. That includes Wilson and Harrison Jr., who are both breakout candidates for fantasy fans. London is also in line for a career season with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, which has pushed him into the top 24. At running back, I have Williams in the top 20 despite some of his durability concerns and the addition of Blake Corum. I’m also in on Jacobs, now in Green Bay, to rebound from a poor 2023. I also like Henry to remain productive in purple.
ROUND 3
3.25. Team 1: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles 3.26. Team 2: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers 3.27. Team 3: Josh Allen, QB, Bills 3.28. Team 4: Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers 3.29. Team 5: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs 3.30. Team 6: De’Vone Achane, RB, Dolphins 3.31. Team 7: James Cook, RB, Bills 3.32. Team 8: DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks 3.33. Team 9: Nico Collins, WR, Texans 3.34. Team 10: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints 3.35. Team 11: Ken Walker, RB, Seahawks 3.36. Team 12: Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, 49ers
Notes: This is the first round we see a quarterback, as Hurts and Allen were picked in the top three. It’s also at this time when we see more running backs coming off the board, as White, Pacheco, Achane, Cook, Kamara and Walker all had their names called. White, Pacheco and Achane are RB1s for their respective teams, while Cook and Kamara are RB2s. Team 11, which went running back, running back, running back, landed Walker as its RB3. Of course, Walker will be more of a No. 2 runner in most drafts. The wideouts who came off the board include Evans, Metcalf, Collins and Samuel Sr.
ROUND 4
4.37. Team 12: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions 4.38. Team 11: DJ Moore, WR, Bears 4.39. Team 10: Stefon Diggs, WR, Texans 4.40. Team 9: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs 4.41. Team 8: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins 4.42. Team 7: Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles 4.43. Team 6: Joe Mixon, RB, Texans 4.44. Team 5: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs 4.45. Team 4: Malik Nabers, WR, Giants 4.46. Team 3: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens 4.47. Team 2: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams 4.48. Team 1: Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
Notes: LaPorta, the first tight end to come off the board, is also the first player taken in the round. Kelce, the top tight end in the previous five years, came in just a few spots later. The wide receiver feeding frenzy picked back up in the round too as seven more were drafted. That includes Diggs, who I have going one round behind his new teammate, Collins, and the second rookie wideout, Nabers. Kupp, who was a first-round pick last season, falls to the end of Round 4 after missing more games due to injuries last season, coupled with Nacua’s emergence into one of the elite wide receivers in fantasy football.
ROUND 5
5.49. Team 1: Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals 5.50. Team 2: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens 5.51. Team 3: D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears 5.52. Team 4: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots 5.53. Team 5: Zack Moss, RB, Bengals 5.54. Team 6: Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders 5.55. Team 7: Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars 5.56. Team 8: Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens 5.57. Team 9: James Conner, RB, Cardinals 5.58. Team 10: C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans 5.59. Team 11: Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers 5.60. Team 12: Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Notes: This round also starts with a tight end in McBride, who I see as a major breakout candidate. He has top-three upside as the Cardinals' unquestioned No. 1 option at the position. Three quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson are also called in this round. Several teams that went with wide receivers in the first three to four rounds are now looking for values as their No. 1 or 2 running back. Those included Swift, Stevenson, Moss, and Conner. I might have McConkey ranked a bit higher than some other analysts, but the target share potential with the Chargers is hard to ignore.
ROUND 6
6.61. Team 12: Zamir White, RB, Raiders 6.62. Team 11: Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals 6.63. Team 10: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills 6.64. Team 9: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals 6.65. Team 8: Jonathon Brooks, RB, Colts 6.66. Team 7: Nick Chubb, RB, Browns 6.67. Team 6: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys 6.68. Team 5: Geroge Pickens, WR, Steelers 6.69. Team 4: George Kittle, TE, 49ers 6.70. Team 3: Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings 6.71. Team 2: Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins 6.72. Team 1: Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
Notes: White, a potential breakout candidate as the new lead back in Las Vegas, is picked as an RB1 for Team 12. That squad started with three wideouts, a tight end and quarterback. Brooks is the first rookie runner off the board, while veteran Chubb drops out of the top 60 coming off a gruesome knee injury suffered last season. Kincaid, another tight end who could bust out, went a few spots ahead of Kittle. Mostert, who scored 21 touchdowns and was a top-five runner last season, lasts until the end of sixth round. Projected touchdown regression is an absolute draft killer!
ROUND 7
7.73. Team 1: Keenan Allen, WR, Bears 7.74. Team 2: David Montgomery, RB, Lions 7.75. Team 3: Tank Dell, WR, Texans 7.76. Team 4: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers 7.77. Team 5: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons 7.78. Team 6: Tony Pollard, RB, Titans 7.79. Team 7: Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars 7.80. Team 8: Jordan Love, QB, Packers 7.81. Team 9: Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders 7.82. Team 10: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos 7.83. Team 11: David Njoku, TE, Browns 7.84. Team 12: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders
Notes: Allen, whose stock took a dive when the Chargers traded him to the Bears, is the first pick of Round 7. He’ll serve as the No. 3 wideout for Team 1. The round includes just one more wideout, Dell, who also lost value due to personnel changes (most notably, the addition of Diggs). This was a running back heavy round with six coming off the board. That includes both Commanders runners, Ekeler and Robinson Jr., and Pollard. He’ll serve as the new projected starter in Tennessee, though a committee situation with Tyjae Spears could put a cap on his fantasy ceiling. There are also three tight ends in this round, with Pitts being picked first. With Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, this is his best shot to bust out and finally meet his lofty fantasy expectations.
ROUND 8
8.85. Team 12: Devin Singletary, RB, Giants 8.86. Team 11: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals 8.87. Team 10: Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans 8.88. Team 9: Diontae Johnson, WR, Panthers 8.89. Team 8: Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys 8.90. Team 7: Brock Purdy, QB 49ers 8.91. Team 6: Marquise Brown, WR, Chiefs 8.92. Team 5: Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers 8.93. Team 4: Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos 8.94. Team 3: Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers 8.95. Team 2: Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs 8.96. Team 1: Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
Notes: There are some nice potential values in the round, including quarterbacks Murray and Purdy. Singletary has never been a fantasy superstar, but he seems to have the Giants backfield all to himself and he knows the offense of coach Brian Daboll from their time in Buffalo. The round also includes both Chiefs wide receivers in Brown and Rice. No one knows if and for how long Rice will be suspended for his off-field issues, so he’s tough to project at this point. Still, these will be Kansas City’s projected starters in 2024.
ROUND 9
9.97. Team 1: Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans 9.98. Team 2: Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders 9.99. Team 3: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys 9.100. Team 4: Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders 9.101. Team 5: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks 9.102. Team 6: Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles 9.103. Team 7: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans 9.104. Team 8: Jameson Williams, WR, Lions 9.105. Team 9: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks 9.106. Team 10: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars 9.107. Team 11: Keon Coleman, WR, Bills 9.108. Team 12: Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
Notes: Round 9 is full of potential values, including Spears, Bowers, Daniels, JSN, and Williams. Personally, I have Daniels as a breakout candidate in his rookie season. I also like Williams, who is getting a lot of positive hype out of Detroit. The round ends with six wideouts, three of which are rookies. I have Smith-Njigba and Lockett coming off the board within a few picks of each other, but I’m higher on the former in his second year. Thomas Jr., Coleman, and Worthy could earn significant roles for their respective teams and could move up in future mocks. For now I like them as No. 4 fantasy receivers.
ROUND 10
10.109. Team 12: Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals 10.110. Team 11: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks 10.111. Team 10: Rome Odunze, WR, Bears 10.112. Team 9: Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens 10.113. Team 8: Jerome Ford, RB, Browns 10.114. Team 7: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons 10.115. Team 6: Chase Brown, RB, Bengals 10.116. Team 5: Christian Watson, WR, Packers 10.117. Team 4: Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons 10.118. Team 3: Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers 10.119. Team 2: Mike Williams, WR, Jets 10.120. Team 1: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
Notes: The second rookie running back, Benson, starts things off in the 10th. He’s one of six runners picked in the round, all of which are committee of handcuff options. Odunze might be more talented than some of the rookie wideouts who have been drafted ahead of him, but his landing spot was the least attractive causing his re-draft stock to fall. This is also the round where Cousins, who was on pace to throw for 5,000 yards last season, had his name called. Now in Atlanta, he should push for top-12 quarterback value.
The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.
This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.
The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.
That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.
In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.
In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.
Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”
2013 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4 Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7 Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16
2018 Los Angeles Rams Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1 Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4 Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8 Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4 Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6
2020 Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4
There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.
So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.
Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).
Six Seasons: Steelers
Five Seasons: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings
No Seasons: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens
Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.
What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!
The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.
Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.
Stats. They can be deceiving, especially in the world of fantasy football.
Case in point … in 2022, Miles Sanders rushed for over 1,200 yards, scored 11 total touchdowns, and was the RB15. Seems pretty good, right? Well, what if I told you he scored fewer than 12 points in 10-of-17 games (59%), and 41 percent of his points came in three games? Suddenly, Sanders isn’t looking so good … and that showed in 2023.
With that in mind, I dove into the numbers and picked out 25 nuggets you need to know before you draft your fantasy football teams in 2024. Some surround false perceptions of players, like Sanders in 2022, while others point out how coaching changes did and could affect future player outcomes. Others discuss player personnel moves and how those will positively or negatively affect how a player performs in 2024.
So, sit back, relax, read and make sure to keep these nuggets in mind when you draft!
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen averaged 22.5 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator last season. During that time, the Bills ranked 13th in pass percentage and 20th in run percentage. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Allen averaged 24.1 points (seven games). The Bills went from 13th to 31st in pass percentage and from 20th to second in run percentage. Those are notable differences.
C.J. Stroud threw the ball 499 times last season. That tied for 14th among quarterbacks. His leading receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, averaged 7.3 targets and 6.8 targets per game, respectively. Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with the Bills, averaged 9.4 targets per game last season. If we project these target totals over a full season, Stroud would throw the ball 400 times to Diggs, Collins and Dell alone for them to meet those averages.
In Kliff Kingsbury’s five seasons as the head coach in Arizona, Kyler Murray averaged 6.5 rushes and 37.7 rushing yards per game. He also rushed for 26 touchdowns. That is good news for rookie Jayden Daniels, who will work under Kingsbury in Washington. In his final two seasons at LSU, Daniels rushed 321 times for 2,019 yards and 21 scores.
Jared Goff is scheduled to play 14 of his 17 games this season in either a dome or a retractable roof stadium. In his 25 career home games in Detroit, Goff has averaged 19.3 fantasy points. Ford Field, of course, is a dome. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in six road games in a dome or retractable roof stadium as a member of the Lions, Goff has averaged a mere 10.5 points. So, even if he’s played in a dome or retractable roof stadium, Goff has still not finished with great numbers when he hasn’t played at home.
The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season with Kellen Moore leading the offense. Justin Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served as OC for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. In that time, his offenses finished 30th, 30th, 32nd, 26th, 32nd, 31st, 32nd, 21st and 30th in pass percentage. The most pass attempts one of his field generals has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone quarterback to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert.
Matthew Stafford finished last season as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performance just once before in his career (2013). Also notable is that Stafford averaged 17 points in the 11 games where he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available.
Deshaun Watson has started and finished 11 games over the last two seasons with the Browns, averaging 15.8 fantasy points. It should be noted, however, that he was better last season (17.7 points per game) than in 2022, when he averaged just 14.3 points after an extended absence from the league due to off-field issues. That includes three games where he scored at least 18.9 points. While it was just five games, Watson was still an asset.
The Cincinnati Bengals ranked second in pass percentage last year under former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. On the flip side, the team ranked 31st in run percentage. By comparison, the Tennessee Titans, Callahan’s new team, were 24th in pass percentage and ninth in run percentage. With Callahan now leading the Titans offense and Derrick Henry no longer on the roster, those numbers are destined to change. That’s good news for Will Levis, who has some fantasy sleeper/breakout appeal in what should be a pass-laden attack.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs played 13 games last season, averaging 20.7 touches and 13.9 points. He also averaged 2.6 yards per rush, which was a drop of almost three full yards compared to 2022. When Jacobs missed the last four games, Zamir White took over as the main running back in Las Vegas. He averaged 23.3 touches and 15.2 points during that time, bettering Jacobs in both categories. With Jacobs now in Green Bay, White will be a popular breakout back.
James Cook averaged 14.4 touches (12 rushes) and 11.8 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey at the helm of the Bills offense. When Joe Brady took over as the new offensive coordinator, Cook averaged 19.6 touches (16.7 rushes) and 16.4 PPR points. That’s an increase of nearly five fantasy points under Brady’s guidance. Cook could be on the verge of a big season, so I can see him being picked as early as the third round in drafts.
The addition of Zach Charbonnet didn’t put a huge dent into Ken Walker’s touch share last season. In 14 games where both running backs were active, Walker averaged 16 touches to Charbonnet’s 7.4 touches. In his first two seasons in the NFL, before the Seahawks drafted Charbonnet, Walker averaged 17 and 16.5 touches, respectively. So, unless things change with the new coaching staff, Walker should still be seen as a solid No. 2 runner.
Raheem Mostert averaged 15.6 touches and 17.9 fantasy points in 15 games last season. In six contests played without De’Vone Achane, he averaged 14.5 touches and 16.6 points. In nine games played with Achane in the lineup, Mostert averaged 16.3 touches and 18.7 points. So, Mostert was surprisingly betterand more productive when Achane was active.
Najee Harris averaged 16.7 touches and 11.6 fantasy points per game last season. He also averaged 0.69 points per touch. His teammate, Jaylen Warren, averaged 12.4 touches and 11.5 points per game. He averaged 0.94 points per touch. So, while Harris is going a few rounds higher than Warren in drafts based on current ADP data, the latter runner was more efficient last season and will no doubt be a better bargain in your fantasy drafts.
Aaron Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 points. If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this magical stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games in his career. When you also consider that his overall points-per-game average has declined five straight years dating back to 2019, and that incredibly productive stretch of games looks like a massive outlier.
In six games as the featured running back in New England last season, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 20 touches (14.8 rushes). He averaged just 2.9 yards per rush, however, and 66 percent of his total PPR fantasy points in those games came as a receiver. Now back in Dallas, I wouldn’t expect a lot from Zeke as a runner. In fact, he’ll need to be used as a receiver and get the majority of the red zone carries to hit his flex starter ceiling.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson averaged 7.2 catches, 114.2 yards and scored three touchdowns in five games with Kirk Cousins under center last season. In those games, he averaged 21.8 fantasy points. In his five games without Cousins (Nick Mullen was under center), he averaged 6.4 catches, 100.6 yards and scored two touchdowns. Jefferson still put up a solid 18.6 points per game in those contests. With Cousins now in Minnesota, Jefferson will be catching passes from either rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy or veteran journeyman Sam Darnold. It’s a downgrade, but he’s still a top-five wideout.
Speaking of Cousins, just 12.5 percent of his throws last season could be labeled as “bad” (excluding spikes or throwaways). His catchable throw percentage was 81.4. In Atlanta, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke threw “bad” passes almost 20 percent of the time. Ridder’s catchable throw percentage was 75.5, while Heinicke’s was 63.2. Their combined off-target throw percentage was 22.8. Obviously, Cousins’ presence is great news for the fantasy potential of breakout candidate Drake London, whose ADP is moving up.
Puka Nacua played 12 games with Cooper Kupp last season. He averaged 5.2 catches, 78.7 yards and scored four touchdowns in those games. His fantasy point average was 15.7. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 8.6 catches, 108.4 yards and scored two touchdowns. His fantasy point average was 21.9 points. That is more than a six-point increase in games where Kupp was out. If Kupp can avoid injuries this season, Nacua, a first-round fantasy selection, will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 2023 totals.
Davante Adams averaged 6.5 catches, 67 yards and scored five touchdowns in 11 games with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Las Vegas Raiders. In that time, he averaged 15.9 fantasy points. He also scored 12-plus PPR points in all but two games, including five games with more than 15 points. If we project his average points scored with O’Connell under center over 17 games, Adams will score 270 points. That would be slightly more fantasy points than he scored last season (265.4), so Adams remains a fantasy WR1.
Michael Pittman Jr. averaged nearly 12 targets and 18 fantasy points in his three full games with Anthony Richardson under center in 2023. That’s a small sample size, but it’s notable. In his other 13 games without Richardson, Pittman Jr. averaged 9.4 targets and 15.1 fantasy points. He also scored just three touchdowns in that time. So, the concerns about Pittman seeing his stat declining with Richardson under center shouldn’t be so prominent.
Stefon Diggs averaged 10.2 targets and 20.2 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. He scored seven touchdowns in those games. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Diggs averaged 8.2 targets and 10.3 points (seven games), and was held to one touchdown. Now in Houston, Diggs’ targets-per-game average could top off at around eight, as he’ll have to share the workload with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. I see him as a No. 2 fantasy wideout this season.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram averaged 13.6 points last season, which was good enough to finish fourth among tight ends. It should be noted, however, he averaged 10.4 points in his first 11 games. While that’s certainly respectable, that average swelled to 19.3 points in his final six contests. During that time, he scored at least 17.5 points four times including three games with more than 23 points and one with more than 32 points. In his prior 53 games between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants, he scored at least 17.5 points just twice. So, that six-game stretch was a massive career outlier. I’d expect some regression.
David Njoku averaged 4.1 catches, 38.3 yards and scored one touchdown in six games with Watson under center last season. In that time, he averaged 8.7 points. In his five games with Joe Flacco, Njoku averaged 7.5 catches, 78 yards and scored four touchdowns. Those totals were good enough to average 18.2 points per game, which is nearly 10 more points than he averaged with Watson at the helm. Flacco is no longer in Cleveland, so fantasy fans have to hope his totals with Watson improve. Otherwise, he could be a dud.
Trey McBride averaged three targets and 4.6 fantasy points in his first seven games of last season while playing with Zach Ertz. When Ertz went down with an injury, McBride averaged 8.5 targets and nearly 15 fantasy points the rest of the season. He’ll be one of the most popular breakout tight ends in 2024 fantasy football drafts. In fact, I have him ranked in my initial tier with Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
No tight end in the league who played in at least 15 games and saw at least 75 targets last season had a lower catchable pass percentage than Kyle Pitts. The tight end who saw the second-most catchable passes based on those same parameters was T.J. Hockenson, who played most of his games with Cousins. Now the starting quarterback in Atlanta, Cousins should help Pitts finally meet his lofty statistical and fantasy expectations in 2024.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to select.
I’ve covered quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, and you can read about all three by clicking the links above, so now it’s time to look at the tight ends. This is probably the least important position in fantasy football, so most managers will wait to fill it rather than take one of the top-end options. As a result, tiers will be uber valuable.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Sam LaPorta, Lions Travis Kelce, Chiefs Mark Andrews, Ravens Trey McBride, Cardinals
This is the first time in years that Kelce isn’t either in his own tier or the top player at tight end. That’s due to a “down” statistical year by his high standards, coupled with LaPorta’s breakout and the fact that Kelce is entering his age-35 season. Andrews should remain a top-five option, and I’ve also included McBride in this tier. He finished seventh in points last season, and that came despite seeing just 10 targets in his first five games. He’s a big breakout candidate.
Kincaid, like McBride, showed flashes of potential last season and is in a great position to bust out in the stat sheets. Kittle’s points-per-game averages have dropped each of the last six years, but he’s still a surefire top-10 option. Engram, last season’s third-best tight end, could see some regression but remains a starter in fantasy leagues. Could this finally be the year we see Pitts reach his fantasy potential? With Kirk Cousins at the helm, he hasn’t had this good of a chance to be a fantasy asset since he joined the league.
Njoku had a career-best season, but his numbers were far better with Joe Flacco under center than Deshaun Watson. That could be a concern. Ferguson continued the trend of Cowboys tight ends making a fantasy impact, posting a top-10 finish. Bowers is one of the best tight-end prospects to come out of college since Pitts, so he’ll be a popular sleeper even as a rookie. Goedert’s stats have decreased lately, but he’s still a viable fantasy starter.
Tier 4 – High TE2s
Dalton Schultz, Texans Pat Freiermuth, Steelers Cole Kmet, Bears
This is where the tight-end position starts to fade in terms of reliable options. Schultz was the TE10 last season, but you must wonder how much Stefon Diggs will eat into his targets. Freiermuth was a fantasy dud last season, but I’m expecting him to rebound, at least at some level, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Kmet, last season’s TE8, will struggle to regain that level after the Bears added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett.
Tier 5 – Mid TE2s
Hunter Henry, Patriots Luke Musgrave, Packers T.J. Hockenson, Vikings Taysom Hill, Saints Cade Otton, Buccaneers
This tier includes two sleepers in Musgrave and Otton, while Henry and Hill (it’s not a Goodfellas reference) will be matchup-based starters in most leagues. Hockenson is the most difficult player to project. He’s established himself as an elite player and would be in Tier 1 had he not suffered a late-season ACL tear. With no real timetable for when he’ll be back, Hockenson is tough to recommend as more than a risk-reward, No. 2 tight end.
Tier 6 – Low TE2s
Daniel Bellinger, Giants Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans Ben Sinnott, Commanders Juwan Johnson, Saints Tyler Conklin, Jets
There are some deep sleepers in this tier, including Bellinger, Sinnott and Johnson. You could also throw Okonkwo into that category, though target share could be an issue with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd all in the Titans' offense. Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz, but the rookie has great upside and is worth a late flier. Johnson, who showed flashes of potential late last year, could also outplay his draft position.
There are a number of players who have had past fantasy success in this tier, but there’s not a whole lot of upside. Higbee is coming off an injury, so his stock has taken a nosedive. Gesicki is in a crowded Bengals pass attack. Hurst hasn't been a fantasy-relevant player in several seasons. Ertz could be limited in Washington’s offense with Sinnott on the roster. Fant is a matchup-based option at best.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues could be looking at this group as late-round flies, but in reality there’s not a ton of value. Smith is a strong pass catcher, but the Dolphins offense doesn’t feature the tight end. Likely’s value is limited with Mark Andrews ahead of him on the Baltimore depth chart. Green Bay is loaded with good, young weapons, which will hurt the value of Kraft, who I have behind his teammate Musgrave in the rankings. Woods could be a worthwhile, deep-league flier, while Oliver could have some appeal in Minnesota while T.J. Hockenson is recovering from a torn ACL.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to pick.
I’ve covered quarterbacks and running backs, so now let’s look at wide receivers. This is now the most important position in fantasy football, especially in leagues that award points for receptions. It’s also the deepest position, as more teams have leaned on the pass attack in recent seasons. We’ve also seen a lot of wide receivers come out of the collegiate ranks and make an immediate impact (many of whom you’ll see in the first several tiers).
Tier 1 – The Elite
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys Tyreek Hill, Dolphins Justin Jefferson, Vikings Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
Lamb moved past Hill and Jefferson as the top wideout in fantasy football after a career 2023 season that saw him post 403.2 points. Hill, the WR2 last season, remains a close second. Jefferson remains in my top three, but the loss of Kirk Cousins brings at least some questions due to the state of the Vikings quarterback situation. He’ll be catching passes from either rookie J.J. McCarthy or journeyman Sam Darnold. St. Brown is locked in as a top-five wideout, and Chase remains among the elite with a healthy Joe Burrow in Cincinnati.
Brown finished fifth in fantasy points among wideouts last season, but he faded down the stretch. Still, he’ll be a first-round selection in most drafts. Nacua, who came out of nowhere to rank fourth in points among wideouts, will be a top-24 overall pick. You must wonder if he can duplicate such a magical season, however, especially if Cooper Kupp can avoid injuries. Wilson is a popular breakout candidate, as he’ll have Aaron Rodgers under center. I am very high on Harrison Jr. coming into his rookie season, which is obvious as I have him listed as a potential low-WR1. He'll be a top-36 pick.
Tier 3 – Low WR1s
Davante Adams, Raiders Chris Olave, Saints Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers Drake London, Falcons Mike Evans, Buccaneers Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
Adams was inconsistent in the stat sheets last year but still finished in the top 10. Olave should post a career season with Michael Thomas off the roster, and Aiyuk should build on his impressive 2023 season. He’s also entering a contract year. This tier includes four players who could push for WR1 value. London is a popular breakout candidate with Kirk Cousins now under center in Atlanta. Evans was the WR7 a season ago, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Pittman Jr. should remain the Colts' No. 1 wideout, and his numbers were solid in games started by Anthony Richardson last season.
Tier 4 – High WR2s
DK Metcalf, Seahawks Nico Collins, Texans Deebo Samuel Sr., 49ers DJ Moore, Bears
The Seahawks passing game should benefit from hiring Ryan Grubb as their new offensive coordinator, which is good news for Metcalf. This tier also includes Collins ahead of Stefon Diggs, as he has a rapport with C.J. Stroud. Samuel Sr., coming off a WR15 finish, should be a fine No. 2 wideout. As for Moore, he will struggle to duplicate his high-end numbers from last season after the Bears traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze. He’ll drop from a mid-level No. 1 wideout to a No. 2 option.
Diggs can no longer be considered an elite fantasy option, as he'll compete with Collins and Tank Dell for targets. Still, he should finish in the WR2 range in what should be an explosive pass attack. Waddle and Smith are both in high-octane offenses and will be attractive WR2s in fantasy leagues. Nabers should be a target hero as a rookie in New York if his quarterbacks can get him the football. There's high-end WR2 potential in him.
Tier 6 – Low WR2s
Cooper Kupp, Rams Amari Cooper, Browns Terry McLaurin, Commanders Christian Kirk, Jaguars
Kupp has missed parts of the last two seasons due to injuries and is now entering his age-31 season, so he’s fallen to the WR2/WR3 range as a result. Cooper averaged a solid 15.3 PPR points in his 15 games last season, and he should remain the top option in the Browns pass attack even with the addition of Jerry Jeudy during the offseason. McLaurin should emerge as the first option in the passing game for rookie Jayden Daniels. Kirk will be the first receiving option with Calvin Ridley no longer in the Jaguars offense.
There is real upside in this tier as Flowers, McConkey and Higgins could push for WR2 value. Flowers should build on a good rookie season, and McConkey has a shot to lead all Chargers wideouts in targets. He’ll be a popular sleeper option in drafts. Higgins had a subpar 2023 but will be motivated to rebound in a contract year. Pickens and Reed could both break out as the projected top receivers for their respective teams. Allen, whose stock fell after being traded to the Bears, is now a flex option. The same holds true for Dell, who looked terrific as a rookie but will lose opportunities to Diggs.
Ridley, who finished 18th among wideouts last season, is now in an offense with an unproven quarterback in Will Levis and will have to compete with DeAndre Hopkins. Johnson will be the top target for Bryce Young in Carolina, so I can see him averaging 12-13 points per game. Brown could be a bargain for managers if he opens the season as the top wideout in Kansas City. I have his new teammate, Rice in his tier, but I have no idea what sort of suspension he’ll face for his off-field problems. Sutton, who remains the clear top wideout in Denver, and the veteran Godwin should both be on the low WR3 radar.
There’s plenty of upside in Tier 10, but some questions too. Addison would be ranked higher if it weren’t for the quarterback questions in Minnesota, and Hopkins will contend with Ridley for targets in Tennessee. I like Smith-Njigba as a potential sleeper/breakout in his second season, but Lockett remains a big part of Seattle's offense. Williams, who will see a bigger role in Detroit this season, should post career numbers. He has sleeper/breakout appeal.
Tier 10 – High WR4s
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars Keon Coleman, Bills Xavier Worthy, Chiefs Rome Odunze, Bears Christian Watson, Packers
We can call this the rookie tier, as it includes Thomas Jr., Coleman, Worthy and Odunze. All four have a chance to play prominent roles for their respective teams. Odunze, who will have to compete with Moore and Allen for targets in Chicago, might have the lowest ceiling of the quartet. Watson is hard to trust because of last season's injury woes, but he could also be a bargain.
Tier 11 – Mid WR4s
Adam Thielen, Panthers Mike Williams, Jets Jakobi Meyers, Raiders Curtis Samuel, Bills Brandin Cooks, Cowboys
Thielen and Williams will be no better than the second-best options in the passing games of their respective teams. Meyers might have hit his ceiling last season when he finished as the WR24, but he's still worth a late look. Samuel has some sleeper appeal in Buffalo, and Cooks will be a matchup-based option in what figures to be a highly productive Cowboys passing game.
Tier 12 – Low WR4s
Gabe Davis, Jaguars Jerry Jeudy, Browns Josh Downs, Colts DeMario Douglas, Patriots Josh Palmer, Chargers
There are a lot of recognizable names, but none of them come with target guarantees. Davis will have to compete with Thomas Jr. for a starting job in Jacksonville, and Jeudy will be the second or third option in the Browns passing game. Downs and Douglas have some deep sleeper appeal.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see other players on that same tier who are good alternatives.
I’ve covered the quarterback teirs, so now let’s look at the running backs. With the number of true featured runners dwindling, backs have lost some of their past luster in drafts. This should change strategies, as managers can wait and still land productive runners in rounds 4-5 and beyond.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
McCaffrey has a chance to finish his career as one of the best fantasy running backs ever, even on the same level as greats like LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk. For that reason, I have him on his own tier. He’ll be the consensus top overall pick in the majority of drafts too, making McCaffrey the most valued asset in fantasy football once again.
Robinson had a good but not great rookie season, finishing ninth in PPR points. Still, I can see him pushing into the top three in Year 2, as he’ll no longer be “handcuffed” under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Hall finished second in points among runners last season, and that was after coming off a serious knee injury. Barkley, who finished as the RB12 in 2023, should push into the top five or 10 behind a solid Eagles offensive line. Gibbs will continue to split work in Detroit with David Montgomery, but he has top-five upside.
Tier 3 – Mid RB1s
Jonathan Taylor, Colts Travis Etienne, Jaguars Kyren Williams, Rams
Taylor had his ups and downs last season, but he finished strong with 17-plus points in three of his last four games. He also won’t lose work to Zack Moss, who is now with the Bengals. Etienne, last season’s No. 3 runner, will be picked in Round 2 or 3. Williams was a superstar last year, scoring 15 touchdowns in 12 games. He does lack durability, however, and the Rams drafted Blake Corum. That makes Williams a bit of a risk, but he's still a top-25 pick.
Jacobs is coming off a bad season, especially compared to what he accomplished in 2022, but signing with the Packers is a positive for his fantasy appeal. Henry is entering his age-30 season, but he still finished as the RB8 last year and has little competition for touches in Baltimore. White might struggle to duplicate the RB4 finish he had last year, but he’ll remain a top-50 overall fantasy selection. White is also a strong pass catcher, which benefits his value. Pacheco is the featured back in Kansas City and could push into the top 10.
Achane was a fantasy superstar at times as a rookie, but his ceiling could still be limited with Raheem Mostert in the Miami backfield. Still, he has RB1 potential. Cook was solid once Joe Brady took over the Bills offense last season, averaging more than 16 points. He should remain the team’s lead back, even with the addition of rookie Ray Davis. Kamara averaged almost 20 touches per game last season and should still be in the RB1/RB2 mix. Walker hasn’t truly busted out in the stat sheets, but he’s been a steady No. 2 option.
Tier 6 – Mid RB2s
Joe Mixon, Texans Zack Moss, Bengals D'Andre Swift, Bears Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots James Conner, Cardinals
Mixon’s move to Houston could affect his touches to a degree, but he’s still a solid No. 2 option. Remember, he finished as the RB6 last season. His replacement in Cincinnati, Moss, will be a popular breakout candidate. I can see him easily finishing in the top 15-20 runners as their featured back. Swift was the RB20 with the Eagles in 2023, and he’ll push for that sort of finish now that he’s in Chicago. Stevenson didn’t put up great totals last season, but he also missed five games. In PPR formats, he should push back into the RB2 range even with Antonio Gibson in the mix. Conner was a league winner for managers at the end of last season, but he missed four games and could lose some work to rookie Trey Benson.
Tier 7 – Low RB2s
Zamir White, Raiders Jonathon Brooks, Panthers Nick Chubb, Browns Aaron Jones, Vikings Raheem Mostert, Dolphins David Montgomery, Lions
This tier includes sleepers/breakouts White and Brooks, who could see a featured role for their respective teams. Chubb is coming off a serious knee injury, so it’s tough to project him as more than a No. 2 fantasy runner. If he can re-claim his previous form, however, Chubb could be a major bargain. Jones missed six games a season ago, but he was a star down the stretch and figures to be the top back in Minnesota. Mostert is coming off a career year that saw him score 21 touchdowns, so regression is imminent. Montgomery was the RB17 in 2023, but he’s likely to play second fiddle to Gibbs.
Tier 8 – High RB3s/Flex
Najee Harris, Steelers Tony Pollard, Titans Austin Ekeler, Commanders Javonte Williams, Broncos Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Harris hasn’t been able to return to the elite fantasy status he enjoyed as a rookie, and the emergence of Jaylen Warren makes him hard to trust as more than a flex. Pollard, coming off a disappointing final season in Dallas, could find himself in a committee with Tyjae Spears. Ekeler and Robinson Jr. will share the work in Washington, limiting both their ceilings, and Williams finds himself in a crowded Denver backfield that could limit his upside.
Singletary could be a nice bargain in fantasy drafts, as he knows Brian Daboll's offense well and has little competition for touches. Warren was more efficient than Harris last season, so he’s not too far behind his teammate in the rankings. The Titans will use both Pollard and Spears in their backfield, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the latter was more effective in the stat sheets. Zeke is back in Dallas, but he’ll be part of a committee with Rico Dowdle and others.
This tier includes handcuffs and backs who will compete for depth-chart positioning in camp. Benson, Allgeier and Ford will all be valuable insurance, while Edwards and Dobbins will compete for the top spot in Los Angeles (though a committee is imminent). Charbonnet, Brown and Corum will also be seen as handcuffs, though all three could push for standalone value.
Tier 11 – Mid to Low RB4s/Handcuffs
Ty Chandler, Vikings Rico Dowdle, Cowboys Chuba Hubbard, Panthers Antonio Gibson, Patriots Alexander Mattison, Raiders Kendre Miller, Saints
This tier is also full of committee backs and potential fantasy handcuffs, including guys like Chandler, Dowdle and Hubbard. Each of them, and Gibson, could also push for standalone flex value. Miller could be a deep sleeper if Kamara is forced to miss some playing time.
Welcome to the “dart throw” tier! This group includes potential handcuffs and several young running backs competing for touches with their respective teams. Vidal is an interesting option, as he’ll have the one-dimensional Edwards and the injury-prone Dobbins ahead of him on the Chargers depth chart. Fellow rookies Lloyd, Davis, and Wright are late fliers, but none of them will open the season higher than second on their teams.
Success in fantasy drafts is all about projecting which players are on the verge of a big season, and knowing who might take a step back in the numbers. It’s those players, who have been labeled as “busts” in the past, who can be the most detrimental to a fantasy manager’s chances at winning a title.
That might not be truer at a position than wide receiver.
The reason is simple: wideouts have emerged as the single most important position in all fantasy football. That means missing out on a high-end receiver can be tough to overcome. Case in point … fantasy managers who whiffed on Cooper Kupp last season probably had some major issues at the position, unless they picked up his teammate, Puka Nacua.
Most folks probably weren’t so fortunate, however.
With that in mind, here are eight receivers who will be high draft picks or are big names who could struggle to produce as prominent starters.
1. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
I had Adams listed as a player to beware last season, and he went on to post decreased totals in almost every statistical category. He still finished in the top 10 in points among wideouts, but he was wildly inconsistent. Adams scored fewer than 13 points in nine games, including five with single digits.
The Raiders don’t have an attractive quarterback situation with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew and the team drafted tight end Brock Bowers in the first round. That could affect Adams’ target share, at least to some degree. So, for those thinking Adams could return to elite fantasy status or that he’ll be more consistent, you might want to think again.
2. Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Diggs is coming off a disappointing second half of last season, which resulted in him averaging just 16.1 points per game. That was his lowest total with the Bills. Now in Houston, he joins a super-talented core of receivers that includes Nico Collins, who broke out last season, and Tank Dell, who was on his way to busting out before getting hurt. The team also boasts Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz and a new running back in Joe Mixon. Diggs will be hard-pressed to see anywhere near the target share he enjoyed in Buffalo. Unless injuries occur on the roster, Diggs can’t be trusted to retain his previously elite status.
3. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
I know, listing Kupp as a bust candidate after he was a bust last season is low-hanging fruit. And, honestly, part of me wants to put Nacua in the article. After all, we could be (and likely are) drafting him based on a magical, ceiling season in the stat sheets. But the truth is, Kupp has only played in 13 games in the last two years due to injuries, and he’s entering his age-31 season. That makes him a hard fade as a No. 1 wideout, and he’s even a risk as a No. 2.
4. Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Ridley was a top-20 fantasy wideout last year, but he was anything but reliable. He scored fewer than 12 points 10 times including nine where he scored single digits. Now in Tennessee, the veteran will be catching passes from a young quarterback in Will Levis and contending for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd. The Titans also have two good backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, so Ridley could be hard-pressed to see high target totals consistently. To me, he’s only a No. 3 wideout.
5. Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Allen was putting up monster numbers last year, but injuries cost him what might have been a career-best campaign. However, an offseason trade to the Bears makes him a lot less attractive from a fantasy standpoint. Their offense is led by a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and it’s loaded with talent that includes DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, making it unlikely that Allen will see 150-plus targets. If you do draft him, it should be as a No. 3 receiver.
6. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett is coming off a down season that saw his reception, yardage, and touchdown totals decrease compared to 2022. What’s more, his 11.9 point-per-game average was his lowest since 2017. Entering his age-31 season (he’ll turn 32 in September), I see Lockett falling behind teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the pecking order. That idea is playing out in drafts, as JSN is going ahead of Lockett based on average draft position. With the statistical arrow pointing downward, he shouldn’t be picked as more than a No. 4 option in drafts.
7. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson was considered a breakout player last year, but he went on to miss eight games due to injuries and was held to fewer than 12 points in all but two of the nine games he was active. His absence opened the door for teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to emerge into viable options for Jordan Love and fantasy managers. I’m not opposed to taking him in the later rounds as a No. 4 wideout, but I’m otherwise out on Watson.
8. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Thielen was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football in the first half of last season, averaging 20.2 points in his first seven games. The wheels fell off after that, however, as he dropped to 8.9 points in his final 10 contests. Aside from that, Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, so Thielen will struggle to see such a high target share again. Entering his age-34 season, he isn’t worth more than a late-round selection.
