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Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 2 (Bet Boston Early)

Game 1 of the NBA Finals was all Boston, as the Boston Celtics opened up the biggest first-quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA history on Thursday night and cruised to a 107-89 win to take a 1-0 series lead.

Boston is now -400 to win the NBA Finals – an implied probability of 80 percent – and it is heavily favored again in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.

Dallas’ role players struggled in Game 1, as PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, Maxi Kleber, and Dereck Lively II gave the team very little on offense. Kyrie Irving (12 points) also shot terribly from the field, going 6-for-19.

What’s most impressive about Boston’s Game 1 win was that Jayson Tatum (6-for-16 shooting, six turnovers) did not play well by his standards, and the C’s still cruised to a win.

Jaylen Brown (22 points on 7-of-12 shooting), and Kristaps Porzingis (20 points on 8-of-13 shooting) took over the game in the first half, especially Porzingis in the first quarter.

Unless Dallas’ role players – and Irving – step up in Game 2, there’s a good chance Boston leads this series 2-0 before it shifts back to Dallas.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 2 of the NBA Finals:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Mavericks Injury Report

Celtics Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving: There are no two ways around it, Kyrie Irving was awful in Game 1 on Thursday night, shooting just 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc, finishing with 12 points. Dallas’ offense mustered just 89 points – despite 30 from Luka Doncic – and Irving is the clear player that needs to step up in that category for the Mavs to keep up with this vaunted Boston attack.

Boston Celtics

Kristaps Porzingis: How important was Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1? Well, he’s skyrocketed in the odds to win the NBA Finals MVP award. KP only played 21 minutes in Game 1, but his impact was undeniable. Boston was an impressive +13 in his minutes, and the big man finished with 20 points, six rebounds, and three blocks while shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. Could his role/minutes expand in Game 2?

In my series prediction, I mentioned two things that came to light in Game 1:

Both things went in Boston’s favor in Game 1.

Porzingis was the best player on the floor – especially in the first half – controlling the game on both ends with his size.

Dallas was unable to get lobs at the rim to Gafford and Lively II – rendering them nearly useless on the offensive end – and Porzingis hunted and dominated the smaller Dallas players in switches on his way to an impressive shooting night.

On the Dallas side, PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Maxi Kleber, Irving, and Tim Hardaway Jr. went 1-for-11 from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic, whose teammates were shooting 57 percent from the field on his passes this postseason, had just one assist.

That’s not going to cut it for Dallas, especially when the Celtics shoot 16-for-42 (38.1 percent) from beyond the arc.

Boston seemed content playing Doncic straight up, and the rest of the Mavericks were unable to give the All-NBA guard much help.

When it comes to betting on Game 2, I’m focusing on the first half, a place where Boston has thrived this season.

The Celtics let things slip in the third quarter, allowing Dallas to cut the lead to just eight points, but it responded with a quick 8-0 run to push things back up to 16 before a Mavs timeout late in the third.

I want to avoid any letdown in the third quarter – or just a run where Dallas gets going – and take the C’s to cover the short first-half spread (Boston -3.5).

This season, Boston is a league-best 63-32-1 against the spread in the first half. Dallas is 49-50 ATS, which isn’t a bad mark, but it’s way behind the C’s.

Boston looked comfortable and focused from the jump on Thursday night, and it has so many different offensive options to punish the Dallas defense.

This may end up being a closer game than Game 1 by the end, but I love trusting the Celtics to start fast like they’ve done all season long.

Pick: Celtics 1H -3.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

3 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

3 Best Mavericks Players to Bet to Win NBA Finals MVP (Luka Doncic’s Award to Lose)

The Dallas Mavericks are sizable underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics, but there are a lot of public bettors that believe Dallas will take this series.

If you also believe that’s the case, betting on a Mavs player to win Finals MVP is a great way to cash in on some favorable odds since Celtics All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite in this market.

Luka Doncic is No. 2 on the list – clearly the top Mavs player entering this series – but there are two dark horses that I think are worth considering if you want to place a small wager on them to win NBA Finals MVP.

I’ve already given out my three favorite candidates on Boston, so why not do the same for the Mavs? It is the NBA Finals after all!

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic (+200)

There is Doncic, and then there is a massive gap between the rest of the Mavs in this market – and for good reason.

The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games.

Doncic has a massive usage rate, and he looked to bet getting over his knee and ankle injuries – at least when it comes to his scoring – in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in each of Dallas’ four wins.

Jrue Holiday will be a tough and likely matchup for Doncic, but let’s not forget that Luka nearly averaged a triple double in the regular season while putting up 33.9 points per game. Dallas will need him to be otherworldly to win this series, and if he is, he’s going to win Finals MVP.

Kyrie Irving (+2000)

Has there been a bigger revenge series in recent memory than this one for Kyrie Irving?

A former Celtic, Irving has a chance to bury his former team in the Finals, and he is the clear-cut No. 2 option to win Finals MVP on the Mavericks. In fact, no player has shorter than +29000 odds on Dallas after Doncic and Irving.

Kyrie’s scoring would likely be his calling card to propel him in this market, but asking him to outplay Doncic is a tough task, and if he does, doesn’t that put Dallas in a tough spot to win the series?

The Mavs need both of their stars to be great in this series, and if that’s the case, the betting odds suggest Doncic is the clear favorite here. Kyrie could be worth a sprinkle, but his path to a Finals MVP is a little murky outside of him scoring at an all-time rate.

Dereck Lively II (+50000)

The longest of longshots, rookie Dereck Lively II is second on the Mavericks in plus/minus this postseason, and he’s made a massive impact on the defensive end of the floor.

Could Lively’s defense and rebounding be enough to win this award?

It’s highly unlikely, but he’s the one Mavs role player I’d consider given his positive impact on a game-to-game basis for the Mavs. Plus, if Lively wins the matchup with Kristaps Porzingis (Daniel Gafford will start for Dallas but Lively will probably close) late in games, it could be crucial to Dallas pulling off an upset.

Don’t break the bank betting on him, but for the sake of this exercise, he’d be my No. 3 choice.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

3 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Peter’s Points: Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Betting Odds, Prediction and Pick

Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.

The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.

Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.

Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.

Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.

As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.

It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.

Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.

However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.

Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
This season:
1. Celtics
2. Thunder
3. Timberwolves
4. Nuggets
5. Knicks
6. Pelicans
7. Clippers
8. Suns
Knicks, Celtics the only teams in East...🤔
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 18, 2024

Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.

I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.

As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.

While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.

Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.

Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.

The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.

Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?

Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.

Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.

Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.

Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.

Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.

Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.

Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.

So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?

While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.

Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.

The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.

Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.

Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.

Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.

I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.

Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

31 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Here’s Every Player Making Their NBA Finals Debut in 2024

The Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics will face off in the 2024 NBA Finals. While many of the Celtics were on the team that went to the 2022 NBA Finals, some are making their Finals debut. The Mavericks, on the other hand are mostly made of Finals novices—with the very obvious exception of Kyrie Irving who hit one of the greatest shots in NBA Finals history against the Golden State Warriors in 2016.

Here are all the players making their NBA Finals debut this year.

Luka Dončić

It took him a few years, but he finally got here with the help of a ragtag bunch of castoffs that only a home PA announcer could love.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Hardaway came to Dallas with Kristaps Porzingis and refused to leave. Tim Hardaway's son has now been in the NBA for over a decade and has been a valuable contributor off the bench for many of them. He's only played 13 minutes a night in 10 postseason games this year, but he'll be ready if they need him.

Jaden Hardy

Hardy has averaged just 4.2 points per game in his first postesason, but he's appeared in 14 of the Mavericks 17 playoff games and shot 40% from three. For a 21-year old taken in the second round of the draft who is only in his second season, that's a pretty good contribution.

Dwight Powell

Powell was drafted by the Charlotte Bobcats in June 2014. He was traded to Cleveland two weeks later and then traded to Boston in August. In December he was part of the trade that sent Rajon Rondo to Dallas. While Rondo was gone before the team was eliminated from the playoffs, Powell has been there ever since.

Josh Green

Green was Dallas's first round selection in 2020. He's become a regular contributor and has played in all 17 playoff games, averaging 17 minutes a game for the Mavericks this year.

Dereck Lively II

Lively slipped to the 12th pick in the 2023 draft where he was taken by the Oklahoma City Thunder. He was almost immediately flipped to Dallas, where he contributed whenever healthy. He's come off the bench throughout the playoffs to give the Mavericks an average of eight points, seven rebounds and a block every night.

Dante Exum

Exum was the fifth pick in the 2014 draft and spent his first five seasons in Utah before being traded to Cleveland. Then, he went and played in Spain for two years before returning to the NBA with Dallas. He's given them brief minutes off the bench in the postseason and provided one of the most exciting moments of the entire season.

Maxi Kleber

Kleber was undrafted and signed by the Mavericks in 2017. He's been a decent 3-point shooter and played 20+ minutes a game for the last six seasons. He suffered a shoulder injury in the first round, but returned for Game 5 against the Timberwolves.

A.J. Lawson

Lawson has spent time with the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves before signing with Dallas in 2022. He appeared in 42 games for the Mavericks this season.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Prosper was drafted by the Kings and immediately traded to the Mavericks for cash. He bounced between the Mavericks and Texas Legends as a rookie, averaging three points and two rebounds in 40 NBA games. He has played one minute in the playoffs.

PJ Washington

After many wasted years in Charlotte, he was traded to the Mavericks on February 8th. This was his first trip to the postseason and he and Daniel Gafford celebrated their ascension on Thursday night.

Daniel Gafford

Gafford spent time in Chicago and Washington before Dallas rescued him the same day they picked up Washington. They have both started every game for Dallas during the postseason.

Kristaps Porziņģis

What a journey. Drafted fourth overall by the New York Knicks in 2015, Porziņģis was considered a unicorn. After suffering an ACL injury, he was traded—along with Tim Hardaway Jr.—to the Dallas Mavericks where people thought he could be the perfect second banana to a young Luka Dončić. After two first round exits in Dallas he was traded to the Washington Wizards. Then, he was traded again to the Celtics ahead of this season and played really well, but injuries have again limited him in the postseason. He should make his Finals debut.

Oshae Brissett

Brissett made his postseason debut with the Celtics after starting his career with Toronto and Indiana. Despite the lack of experience, he managed to make headlines by tweeting and deleting a message to Miami Heat fans early in the postseason. He has appeared in two of the Celtics last three games.

Svi Mykhailiuk

The Ukranian was taken by the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round of the 2018 draft using a pick that the Denver Nuggets originally traded in 2013. He spent time in Detroit, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto, New York and Charlotte before signing with Boston in the offseason. His one basket during the playoffs was a 3-pointer.

Neemias Queta

The 7-foot Portugese center was taken by the Kings in 2021 and signed with Boston during the 2023 offseason. He's been on the floor twice for Boston during the postseason.

Xavier Tillman Sr.

The Grand Rapids native was drafted by the Sacramento Kings out of Michigan State before he was traded to Memphis. He played 30 minutes a game during the Grizzlies first round loss to the Lakers last year. He was traded to Boston at the trade deadline and is playing a bit during this Celtics run so he should see the court in the Finals.

Jaden Springer

Springer was drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers late in the first round of the 2021 draft. The Celtics acquired him at the trade deadline.

Jordan Walsh

Walsh was drafted in the second round of the 2023 draft by the Sacramento Kings and traded to Boston in exchange for Colby Jones. Walsh has appeared in nine regular season games and two postseason games so far.