Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury-Wings)

Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Mercury-Wings)

Sunday brings a loaded WNBA slate of Commissioner’s Cup games before Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off, giving us a chance to watch basketball all day long.

It doesn’t get much better than that, does it?

The Washington Mystics and New York Liberty kick off the action on Sunday after 3 p.m. EST, but that’s not the only game I’m betting on today.

There are two player props that I’m targeting for some veteran players, as well as a moneyline pick in the Dallas Wings-Phoenix Mercury matchup with Brittney Griner and Rebecca Allen back for the Mercury. 

Let’s break down each of these picks for a basketball-filled close to the weekend: 

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-120) vs. Dallas Wings

The Wings have dropped four games in a row, and they lack the offensive firepower after Arike Ogunbowale to compete with a fully healthy Mercury team in my eyes. 

Satou Sabally and Natasha Howard being out has forced several Wings players to step up into bigger roles than they’d usually have. 

Even though Ogunbowale is scoring the ball at a high rate, she’s not shooting it efficiently, and neither are the Wings as a whole. They rank eighth in the league in effective field goal percentage, and that’s not the worst part of their advanced numbers in 2024. 

Dallas is also 10th in the league in defensive rating, which is a major concern given the weapons (Griner, Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper) that the Mercury have on offense. 

Now, I don’t want to act like Phoenix has been elite this season. It actually ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating in 2024, but we have to remember that two starters were out for the first 10 games of the season.

The first game they came back? 

Phoenix promptly beat the best team in the Western Conference right now as a 5.5-point underdog. 

The Mercury have some big wins (over Minnesota and Las Vegas) and their defense should improve with Griner protecting the rim. Before Phoenix was running an extremely small four-guard lineup. 

I think this is a buy low spot on the Mercury before oddsmakers realize how deadly this team can be at full strength. 

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 18.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit

Sabrina Ionescu has been on fire as of late, scoring 22 or more points in four of her last six games, pushing her season-long scoring average to 17.8 points per game.

After a slow shooting start to the season, we’re starting to see what the two-time All-Star is truly capable of, and she’s coming off a huge 24-point game in a win over the Connecticut Sun on Saturday.

With Courtney Vandersloot (personal) likely out of the lineup for the second straight game on Sunday, Ionescu should play pretty heavy minutes against the Washington Mystics, who rank ninth in the league in defensive rating this season. 

Plus, Sloot usually initiates a ton of offense, so it’s likely that Ionescu will have the ball in her hands even more than usual in this game. Despite a poor 4-for-12 shooting game against the Mystics earlier this season, Ionescu is one of my favorite targets on Sunday. 

Nneka Ogwumike OVER 16.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

For the third time this season, Nneka Ogwumike and the Seattle Storm will match up with the Minnesota Lynx, and Ogwumike has dominated this matchup in 2024.

The veteran forward had 20 points on 10-of-18 shooting in the season opener before dropping 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting in the next matchup. On the season, Ogwumike is averaging 17.7 points per game, clearing 16.5 points in five of her seven appearances. 

She’s seen her scoring drop in her last three games (10, 17 and 12 points), but Ogwumike has still attempted double-digit shots in all but one game. 

Given her success against Minnesota this season, I’ll buy low on this prop at 16.5 after it was nearing 20.5 earlier in the season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Chennedy Carter, Chicago Sky Teammates Harassed by Man at Team Hotel

Chennedy Carter, Chicago Sky Teammates Harassed by Man at Team Hotel

Chennedy Carter and the Chicago Sky were harassed by a man with a camera outside their team hotel in Washington D.C. on Wednesday night, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

When the Sky arrived at their hotel ahead of their Thursday game against the Washington Mystics, a single man approached the team and specifically tried to speak with Carter, per Chicago Sun-Times’ Annie Costabile. 

“It was over as fast as it started,” Sky general manager Jeff Pagliocca said. “I’m very confident in our security always making our players feel safe. Today was a great example of how critical they are to our team.”

The Sky’s team security de-escalated the situation, and the police weren’t called. The man was ultimately escorted away by security.

Multiple Sky players posted on X about the incident.

“finding out our teams hotel to pull with a camera as we get off the bus and put it in my teammates face & HARASS her is NASTY WORK,” forward Angel Reese wrote. “this really is outta control and needs to STOP.”

“WOW!!! Thank GOD for security,” forward Isabelle Harrison wrote. “My teammate being harassed at our hotel is insane! Couldn’t even step off the bus!!!”

“Getting harassed at our hotel is where the line needs to be drawn,” forward Michaela Onyenwere wrote. “Some ‘fans’ have NO CHILLLLL.”

Forward Brianna Turner wrote, “I wasn’t present for the interaction from earlier, but what occurred isn’t acceptable. Didn’t realize that when we said ‘grow the game’ that would be interpreted as harassing players at hotels. You are free to have your own opinion but consider if this happened to someone u know.”

Four days prior, Chennedy Carter issued a hard off-ball foul on Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark in the Sky’s 71-70 road loss that has since generated widespread controversy.

Lonzo Ball Defends Angel Reese After Her First Career Ejection

Lonzo Ball Defends Angel Reese After Her First Career Ejection

Chicago Sky rookie Angel Reese was ejected for the first time in her career Tuesday night during the team's 88–75 loss to the New York Liberty.

Lonzo Ball saw the play unfold from his seat at Wintrust Arena and posted to social media shortly after the ejection to support the 22-year-old rookie.

He even vowed to pay for the $400 fine she will face in the coming days — $200 for each technical foul. Reese appreciated the words of support.

Reese was ejected with 2:31 remaining in the fourth quarter after an exchange with referee Charles Watson that led to two technical fouls. After the game, lead official Maj Forsberg told the Chicago Tribune's Julia Poe that Reese was given her first tech for "disrespectfully addressing" the official and the second tech for waving off the referee.

The $400 fine marks Reese's second financial penalty she has faced this season. Reese was fined $1,000 this past weekend for not speaking to the media after the Sky's 71–70 loss to the Indiana Fever on Saturday.

Reese registered 13 points and 10 rebounds in 24 minutes before getting ejected, notching her second double-double through eight games to start her WNBA career.

Angel Reese Ejected From Sky-Liberty Clash After Double Technical Foul

Angel Reese Ejected From Sky-Liberty Clash After Double Technical Foul

Angel Reese was sent back to the Chicago Sky locker room early during the team's 88–75 loss to the New York Liberty on Tuesday at Wintrust Arena.

Reese was ejected from the game with 2:31 remaining in the fourth quarter. She was whistled for a personal foul after trying to grab a rebound. Reese argued the call and was quickly given two technical fouls by WNBA referee Charles Watson and ejected from the game.

The Sky trailed the Liberty 82–71 at the time of Reese's ejection and went on to lose 88–75.

Despite the early exit, Reese tallied the second double-double of her career, scoring 15 points on 3-of-12 shooting and grabbing 10 rebounds in 24 minutes.

Reese and the Sky return to the floor Thursday to host the Washington Mystics at Wintrust Arena.

Chennedy Carter’s Coach Admits Foul on Caitlin Clark Was ‘Not Appropriate’

Chennedy Carter’s Coach Admits Foul on Caitlin Clark Was ‘Not Appropriate’

Chicago Sky coach Teresa Weatherspoon weighed in on the Chennedy Carter-Caitlin Clark controversy in an official statement released by the team on Monday. 

Two days after the Indiana Fever’s 71-70 win over the Sky, Weatherspoon wrote, “Physical play, intensity, and a competitive spirit are hallmarks of Chicago Sky basketball. Chennedy got caught up in the heat of the moment in an effort to win the game. She and I have discussed what happened and that it was not appropriate, nor is it what we do or who we are.”

The Sky coach continued, “Chennedy understands that there are better ways to handle situations on the court, and she will learn from this, as we all will. As a team, we will grow together and continue to work hard to display strong leadership and set a positive example for our competitors, fans, and partners.”

In the call heard ‘round the WNBA, Carter shoulder-checked Clark in the third quarter of Saturday’s matchup and was assessed a common foul that was retroactively changed to a Flagrant 1 upon further review. 

Carter refused to answer questions about Clark or the dust-up after the game. The Sky guard did, however, make some noise on social media chirping at Clark’s talent and impact in the league. Carter, the No. 4 pick in the 2020 draft, scored a team-high 19 points in the Sky’s loss. 

Though Carter avoided discipline from the league for her flagrant foul on Clark, the WNBA fined Angel Reese for failing to make herself available to the media after the game and fined the Sky organization for not upholding media policies.

Matt Barnes Calls Out Caitlin Clark’s Fever Teammates With NSFW Message

Matt Barnes Calls Out Caitlin Clark’s Fever Teammates With NSFW Message

Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark, already in the spotlight given her massive following, became the talk of sports after Saturday's game against the Chicago Sky, as Clark was fouled hard by Sky guard Chennedy Carter, sparking a strong reaction from Clark herself, as well as outcry from both fans and Fever coach Christie Sides.

Matt Barnes, who co-hosts the All The Smoke podcast with fellow former NBA player Stephen Jackson, joined the chorus of voices discussing Clark, only he decided to focus less on Carter's foul and more on the reaction, or lack thereof in his eyes, of Clark's teammates to the play.

Barnes, in a post onto his account on Instagram, ripped Clark's Fever teammates for seemingly not coming to her defense on Saturday—or this season as a whole.

"So, there's a hot topic going on right now," Barnes said. "Caitlin Clark says she got cheap-shotted against the Sky. I mean, throughout the season she's been getting beat up. Hard screens, elbows, knocked down. It is what it is. She's not the first. She won't be the last."

"My issue and my question is, where the f--- are her teammates at? Where y'all at? Where are the rest of the Indiana Fever? I've seen a couple girls smirk when she's got knocked down, half-a-- to pick her up. Like, y'all are supposed to protect the asset, protect the star and although this is a team, she's the star."

Barnes, as a former enforcer for 14 seasons in the NBA, then went on to say that the Fever should be "ashamed of themselves."

Barnes is not the only person to suggest the Fever need an enforcer-type on the roster, an opinion that Golden State Warriors star Draymond Green stated in an Instagram post on Saturday—and one that Carter herself seemingly scoffed at.

As Barnes said, the WNBA is going to continue to test Clark. How the Fever respond, especially given Carter's—and perhaps others'—opinions on Clark, should be of the utmost importance to the franchise moving forward.

Fever Coach Demands Action From WNBA for 'Unacceptable' Fouls on Caitlin Clark

Fever Coach Demands Action From WNBA for ‘Unacceptable’ Fouls on Caitlin Clark

Indiana Fever coach Christie Sides demanded action from the WNBA after rookie guard Caitlin Clark was fouled hard by Chicago Sky guard Chennedy Carter during the Fever's 71–70 victory over Chicago at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Saturday.

After the game, Sides took to X, formerly known as Twitter, sending a message directly to the league about the "unacceptable" fouls on Clark.

"This is unacceptable @WNBA," Sides wrote. "When will the consistent complaints be heard?!? Something has to be done!"

The foul occurred with 15.8 seconds left in the third quarter on a Fever inbounds play, moments after Carter sank a mid-range jump shot. Clark was preparing to receive the inbounds pass from Fever teammate Aliyah Boston when Carter, who had remained on that side of the court following her made shot, proceeded to shoulder check Clark to the ground.

Officials ruled Carter's move a common foul and the play was not reviewed.

At the end of the quarter, Clark, during a sideline interview, told ESPN that Carter's foul was "not a basketball play." Meanwhile, Sides, after joking that she was "trying not to get fined," told reporters that she has submitted plays involving Clark to the WNBA for review.

"We're just going to keep sending these possessions to the league, and these plays, and hopefully they'll start, you know, taking a better look at some of the things that we see happening, or we think is happening," Sides said.

"Just more happy that Caitlin handled it the way she did. You know, it's tough to keep getting hammered the way she does and to not get rewarded with free throws or foul calls. She's continued to fight through that. Appreciate that from her. Really, really proud of her for doing that."

The WNBA on Sunday upgraded Carter's foul on Clark to a Flagrant 1 after review, according to Alexa Philippou of ESPN. Clark and the Fever will next take on the New York Liberty on Sunday night.

Caitlin Clark Heaps Praise on Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso Before Sky-Fever Game

Caitlin Clark Heaps Praise on Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso Before Sky-Fever Game

Over the last two years, the friendly rivalry between Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark and Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese has elevated two games—women's college basketball and the WNBA—to never-before-seen heights.

Like all truly great sports rivalries, however, Clark and Reese's rivalry is built on mutual respect. On Saturday morning, Clark demonstrated that by praising both Reese and Sky center Kamilla Cardoso before the Fever played Chicago in the afternoon.

"The thing about (Reese), she's been so dominant at what she does ever since we played in high school," Clark said via Julia Poe of The Chicago Tribune. "She's always had a knack for being able to rebound the ball and that's just translated immediately to the WNBA."

Reese entered Saturday averaging 8.2 rebounds per game, ninth in the WNBA.

"Kamilla caused us a lot of problems in the national championship," Clark said of Cardoso. "Kamilla is just scratching the surface of her potential... it's been a lot of fun to watch those two kind of evolve over their college careers."

Each of the trio had a role to play in Indiana's eventual 71–70 win. Clark scored 11 points, pulled down eight rebounds and gave out eight assists; Reese scored eight points and pulled down 13 rebounds; Cardoso scored 11 points and had six rebounds.

Caitlin Clark Decries Chennedy Carter's Hard Foul During Fever's Win Over Sky

Caitlin Clark Decries Chennedy Carter’s Hard Foul During Fever’s Win Over Sky

Saturday's game between the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky was supposed to be a celebration of the WNBA's most heralded rookie class ever, with Fever guard Caitlin Clark squaring off against Sky forward Angel Reese and center Kamilla Cardoso.

While still a memorable game—Indiana won 71–70—it became yet another unfortunate referendum on Clark's reputation throughout the league.

Late in the third quarter, Chicago guard Chennedy Carter slammed into Clark on an inbounds pass and was called for an off-ball foul.

When the quarter was over, Clark was asked about the foul.

“Yeah, that’s just not a basketball play,” Clark said via The New York Post. “But you know I’ve gotta play through it, that’s what basketball is about at this level.”

With the win, the youthful Fever improved to 2–8 on the season.

Sky’s Chennedy Carter Committed a Hard Off-Ball Foul on Caitlin Clark, and Fans are Heated

Sky’s Chennedy Carter Committed a Hard Off-Ball Foul on Caitlin Clark, and Fans are Heated

Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark was on the receiving end of a hard off-ball foul late in the third quarter of Saturday’s matchup against the Chicago Sky.

On a Fever inbounding play, the Sky’s Chennedy Carter bumped Clark to the floor and was assessed a common away-from-play foul, not a flagrant foul.

Clark appeared shaken up after the play, and when the quarter ended, she appealed to the refs for a harsher punishment for Carter. In an interview after the third quarter, Clark called Carter’s foul “not a basketball play.”

In the Fever’s loss to the Seattle Storm on Thursday, Clark had complained about the level of physicality in the league.

“I feel like I’m getting hammered,” Clark said.

WNBA fans weighed in on the hard foul:

Despite Carter's foul, the Fever clinched its first home win of the season, beating the Sky 71–70. Clark finished with 11.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists, shooting 4-of-11 from the field and 2-of-9 from three.

In a postgame press conference, Carter refused to comment on her altercation with Clark.

“I ain’t answering no Caitlin Clark questions,” Carter told reporters.