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MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

Who wants winners on Saturday?

With 15 Major League Baseball games on the docket Saturday, I'm going across the bigs to find three best bets on the card, including how to bet the Orioles vs. Rays game on Saturday, which features one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Kyle Bradish.

Can Bradish keep it up, or will he come back down to Earth?

Here's my bet for that game, as well as the Nationals vs. Braves matchup and the Reds vs. Cubs matchup in a division-filled best bets slate on Saturday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Atlanta's lineup is struggling and Charlie Morton may not be able to give enough help on the mound. He has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.94 xERA, but has a walk rate of nearly 11%. There are simply too many free bases given out in what may be a low scoring affiar.

Atlanta keeps getting priced like the team will stop its slide, but I'm going to take advantage and go against it.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Cincinnati is playing its best ball now, second in the big leagues in OPS over the last 13 games and play in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. I don't see the difference between the two teams at the moment being neglible, like this line indicates, and I expect Cincy to win with ease at home for a seventh straight game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Saturday's MLB slate is headlined by the battle between the two favorites to win the World Series, the Dodgers against the Yankees in the Bronx.

The World Series preview in June takes center stage as all of Major League Baseball is in action on Saturday. Lucky for you, we have commentary on how to bet every game!

Keep reading to find out how we view each game on the Saturday slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pick: Mets (+150)

There’s some variance baked into this game with it being played in London as part of MLB’s London Series.

With a short center field fence and the wind projected to be blowing out at London Stadium, this can be a short outing for the likes of Ranger Suarez, who is driving most of the opening odds in this game.

Pick: Twins (-120)

Simeon Woods Richardson continues to thrive for the Twins in his first full season with the club, posting a 3.04 ERA while showcasing excellent control, posting a walk rate of only six percent. The Minnesota starter will match up against Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski, who will put a ton of pressure on the Pittsburgh below average bullpen.

With the pitching edge, including a better pen, I’ll take the Twins as short road favorites.

Pick: Nationals (+120)

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Pick: Athletics (+135)

The Blue Jays remain a non starter for me as a road favorite, even against the lowly A’s.

Kevin Gausman has been overvalued all season, and Toronto is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. The right hander has an ERA of 4.60 while his xERA is far worse at 5.26, per MLBStatcast. He is striking out only 22% of batters, the lowest rate since 2018, and remains a worthy fade.

Pick: Brewers (-165)

Freddy Peralta has been outstanding this season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he has faced while keeping his walk rate below eight percent, about the big league average.

It’ll be tough sledding for the Tigers lineup that is bottom third in Major League Baseball in OPS while the Brewers are far better at generating run support for its pitching staff, fourth in the same metric.

Pick: Royals (+115)

The Royals rallied to win 10-9 on Friday, and the team remains a great bet at home, 23-10 at Kauffman Stadium this season.

Kansas City will have a stiff test against Luis Castillo, but the Royals ability to generate power is notable considering Castillo has allowed a barrel percentage in the 28th percentile this season, per MLBStatcast, and allows a high fly ball rate of over 60%.

Pick: Rays (+115)

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Pick: Reds (-120)

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It also helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Pick:Red Sox (-205)

Chicago snapped a 13 game skid on Friday, but I’m not counting on two wins in a row.

Pick: Rockies (+160)

Can Kyle Gibson justify this price tag? The veteran pitcher has a 3.69 ERA that is supported by a 4.99 xERA with a walk rate hovering around 10%.

For what it’s worth, Ryan Feltner pitches better on the road than at the hitter friendly Coors Field, so I can get behind him outperforming expectations.

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The two best teams in baseball continue its weekend series, and I’ll side with the road underdog given the Yankees’ overall fitness with Juan Soto’s status in doubt for the foreseeable future.

If New York’s lineup isn’t at its best, it’ll be tough to keep up with the Dodgers, who have the highest OPS against left handed pitching this season.

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland is the far more talented side here and should have little issue snagging a road win.

Ben Lively’s strikeout rate is at a career high of 23% and the Guardians have the clear offensive edge, 11th in OPS against the Marlins, who check in 29th.

Pick: Diamondbacks (+125)

I’ll take Arizona to stay hot in June, winners of five of six, at an underdog price.

Ryne Nelson isn’t a strikeout-focused pitcher, only 14.9%, but he has limited his walks to only six percent, which is impactful against a Padres team that is reliant on drawing walks to get runners on base. Nelson’s ERA is also due to come down from his mark of 5.44, with an xERA of 4.77.

Pick: Astros (-165)

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been among the best pitchers in baseball, but I expect a tough summer for the veteran left hander.

He has an ERA of 2.37, which is staggering to see given some of his other numbers, including a 16% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, his xERA is 4.49, making him ripe for a few blow ups as the season continues.

I’ll count on Saturday against a Houston lineup that is top five in OPS against southpaws.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki Commits Ghastly Error, Hits Game-Tying Grand Slam in Same Inning

Baseball is a great game, it is said, because no matter how badly you screw up, you have the opportunity to come back the next day and redeem yourself.

In fact, sometimes you don't even need to wait a day.

Take the example of Chicago Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki, manning his familiar position Saturday evening against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. With the bases loaded and two outs in the top of the second inning, Reds catcher Luke Maile lofted a routine fly to right—only for Suzuki to drop it.

Three runs scored and Cincinnati ended the inning with a 4-0 lead.

Seiya Suzuki drops an inning-ending fly ball that leads to three runs. pic.twitter.com/3Cxm6MQSHL
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) June 2, 2024

Fast forward to the bottom of the second. Same situation—bases loaded, two outs, and this time Suzuki at the dish.

A 400-foot grand slam later, the contest was tied at four.

Redemption for Seiya 💣 pic.twitter.com/QNt2atkA8t
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) June 2, 2024

The redemptive bomb marked the sixth of the year for Suzuki, who is looking to build on a 20-home run sophomore season in 2023.

7 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Cubs’ Mascot Had Priceless Reaction to Zach Edey’s Bad First Pitch

It's a good thing Zach Edey is one of the NBA's top prospects and not MLB's after he had a rough first pitch outing during Monday night's Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres game at Wrigley Field.

The Purdue star even shocked the Cubs mascot Clark as he threw the pitch. The ball went way left past the mascot and into the dirt, causing Clark to turn around to look at Edey in disbelief. Even the Wrigley Field crowd was in disbelief at how sideways it went.

But, Edey and Clark made up as the two went in for a photo after the pitch. Clark even got a helper to make him appear taller than the 7'4" basketball star.

Zach Edey threw out the first pitch at the @Cubs game Monday ⚾️ pic.twitter.com/n5dDeqV65S
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) May 7, 2024

Edey is projected to be drafted in the first round of the NBA draft on June 26. He is coming off two consecutive Wooden Award winning seasons with Purdue.

2 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Umpire Incorrectly Calls Pete Crow-Armstrong Safe Using His Helmet to Stay on Second

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets played a day game at Citi Field on Thursday. In the top of the second inning, Cubs rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a double to right field that scored Patrick Wisdom.

As Crow-Armstrong ran the base paths, his helmet started to fall off so he grabbed it before sliding into second. Then things got really weird. Crow-Armstrong tried to do a pop-up slide, but failed to pop. Instead, he slid over second and came off the bag as Joey Wendle caught the throw from Starling Marte.

In danger of getting tagged out, Crow-Armstrong used his helmet to touch second base and was called safe.

Pete Crow-Armstrong used his helmet to stay on second base pic.twitter.com/iAVcmZh8nL
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 2, 2024

The amazing thing about baseball is that it's been around for 150 or so years and you still witness things that you have never seen before. Which is why the Mets' broadcast booth was legitimately confused about whether it was the right call or not.

Eventually, reporter Steve Gelbs confirmed with Major League Baseball that it was the wrong call and Crow-Armstrong should have been called out.

Per our @SteveGelbs: This is NOT a legal play and Crow-Armstrong should have been ruled OUT. pic.twitter.com/KmtUCxDZUg
— SNY (@SNYtv) May 2, 2024

Crow-Armstrong, 22, might actually be trying out new material as a baseball prop comic during this series. During Wednesday's game, he got his bat caught in the protective netting and it just looked like it was levitating.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's bat gets caught in the Citi Field netting pic.twitter.com/ozF8nJyKBy
— SNY (@SNYtv) May 2, 2024

The Cubs return home to host the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. Can't wait to see what Crow-Armstrong has in store for the fans.

2 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Mets Manager Calls Out MLB Replay Official for ‘Wrong Call’ That Ended Game

New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza was incensed after outfielder Pete Alonso was called out on a bang-bang play at home plate in the ninth inning of Wednesday night's loss to the Chicago Cubs.

Mendoza wasn't arguing whether or not Cubs catcher Miguel Amaya got the tag down on Alonso in time. His argument was that Amaya blocked home plate, which is in direct violation of a rule put into place a decade ago that emphasized player safety from home plate collisions.

Here's a replay of the call that ended the game, and it was close:

Another view of the crazy ending to the Cubs and Mets
(via @SNYtv)pic.twitter.com/bqqJHi2tdv
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 2, 2024

Mendoza argued with the home plate umpire about the call, and the call was reviewed and upheld after it was determined that Amaya had sufficiently blocked home plate without stepping on the base, which is legal.

Carlos Mendoza argues the last call of tonight's game with umpire Chad Fairchild. pic.twitter.com/CYUYEA63wJ
— SNY (@SNYtv) May 2, 2024

Mendoza clearly did not agree with the call on the field that cost his club a chance at tying the game. He let his feelings be known in the postgame press conference.

"Yeah, the interpretation of the rule," Mendoza said when asked about his biggest gripe with the call. "It's one of those that they send out a memo in spring training, what's legal and what's illegal. And it's clearly on that e-mail that we got that catchers aren't allowed to have their foot in front of the plate, on top of the plate. They can't straddle without possession of the baseball. And it was very clearly that the guy was...had his left foot on top of the plate without the baseball. I think they got the wrong call. "

“I think they got the call wrong.”
Carlos Mendoza says the league sends out a memo every offseason, which clearly states that it is illegal for a catcher to touch any part of home plate prior to having possession of the baseball. pic.twitter.com/a9VZHBpNic
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) May 2, 2024

It was a tough loss for the Mets, who fell to 15-15 on the season. They'll look to avenge the loss with a day game against the Cubs on Thursday afternoon.

2 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Shota Imanaga Continues to Be Unhittable During Remarkable Start

Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga had already made quite an impression before he took the mound at Citi Field on Wednesday night against the New York Mets. The 30-year-old rookie, playing his first season the bigs after starring in Japan, stood alone as the first player since 1901 to win at least four games and carry a sub-1.00 ERA through his first five starts. And now he continues to stand alone after twirling seven scoreless innings while scattering three hits and striking out seven in a 1-0 Cubs' victory.

Imanaga reduced his ERA to 0.78, which is the fourth-lowest mark ever behind Bob Shawkey, Dave Ferris, and Fernando Valenzuela.

His blistering arrival has made his turn in the rotation into must-see television and immediately made him a fan favorite in Chicago, where they are appreciating a 19-12 start out of the gates.

Pitching in New York City for the first time did not faze him, as he was asked for his impressions of being on the big stage.

“Well, I recognized the hotel view from Spider-Man,” he said through his translator.

It's only early May and the rest of baseball will likely learn to adjust to his arsenal and the unsustainable pace will come back to reality. But right now he's looking very much like a superhero the North Side needs

30 Apr 24 Jimm Sallivan

Bill Murray Watched the Cubs Beat the Mets, Rode the 7 Train With Fans

As an actor, Bill Murray gets to pick his projects and largely set his schedule, and he's created one that allows him to check out a tremendous amount of live sporting events. Fresh off checking out UConn's second consecutive national title with his son Luke, who is an assistant coach, Murray was in Queens on Monday night to take in the Chicago Cubs-New York Mets game at Citi Field.

Murray has been long-tenured as the Cubs' most notable celebrity fan and has a rich history with the franchise, from appearing in the broadcast with Harry Caray to serving as a good luck charm in 2016's curse-breaking World Series. So a regular season road game in the month of April isn't entirely a significant entry in his fandom, but it was an exciting night at the ballpark as Chicago broke up a no-hitter late and escaped with a 3-1 win.

Which meant Murray had a happier subway ride back to Manhattan than the Mets fans who also piled into the 7 train. And thanks to the magic of social media, we now that is something that happened.

Riding the train after a Cubs win with Bill Murray. I just never thought it would be in New York. pic.twitter.com/COfoJ69k9e
— Josh (@BlainPlanes) April 30, 2024

Christopher Morel sealed things for the Cubs with a go-ahead home run in the top of the ninth inning. He did not ride the 7 train after the game.

Bill Murray was pumped up after Christopher Morel’s go-ahead home run! pic.twitter.com/G12uhs18mX
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) April 30, 2024