We're just months away from the start of the NFL season and before we know it, we'll be betting on games and spending our Sundays watching Red Zone.
Despite the season still being a few months away, sportsbooks have already released all of the futures odds you can think of for the 2024 campaign. One of the betting markets that is already available is the odds to win the NFC.
The San Francisco 49ers were the best team in the conference from the opening week all the way until the Super Bowl, but the upstart Detroit Lions almost managed to pull off the upset in the NFC Championship. Will those two teams meet in the NFC Championship next season?
Let's find out what the oddsmakers think and take a look at the odds to win the NFC for all 16 teams.
The San Francisco 49ers are understandably once again the betting favorites to win the NFC. There's no reason to doubt them after what they've done the past two seasons and have only made moves that have improved their roster for 2024. There's a strong they'll be the No. 1 seed in the conference again in 2024.
Despite the two powerhouse teams in the NFC East, the Detroit Lions are second on the odds list to win the NFC and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. Can they finally do it? Did they improve their defense enough to hang with the 49ers?
The Eagles won the NFC two seasons ago but imploded in the second half of the season last year. Eagles fans are anxiously awaiting the start of the season to see which version of Philadelphia will show up in 2024. Oddsmakers seem to still have faith in them.
Not only is the NFC East a toss-up between these two teams, but the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys have the same odds to win the NFC at +700. Of course, the Cowboys have to learn how to win in the playoffs if they want to pull it off.
The youngest team in the NFL got hot in the second half of the 2024 season and went on to upset the Cowboys in the wild card round of the playoffs. Can they take a step forward in this year's campaign?
The Falcons were seemingly a quarterback away from being a playoff team last year. Now that they have Kirk Cousins, they're amongst the top options to win the NFC, albeit still a step below the top dogs in the conference.
No rookie quarterback has ever started in a Super Bowl. The closest was Brock Purdy with the 49ers two years ago, but he was injured in the NFC Championship and the Eagles went on to win. Can Caleb Williams achieve the feat in his first year as the Bears quarterback?
The Los Angeles Rams will once again be a dark horse in the NFC but with the passing attack they have, they can beat anyone on any given Sunday.
Don't expect much from the Seattle Seahawks in their first year in the post-Pete Carroll era.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South last year. Can they run it back with Baker Mayfield as their quarterback once again? Do they have enough talent to compete with the top teams in the conference? Oddsmakers aren't so sure about that.
The Minnesota Vikings won't be NFC contenders in 2024.
While they look decent on paper, the Saints aren't in a position to make a run in the conference in 2024.
If Kyler Murray can play at an MVP level and their defense can step up in a big way, the Arizona Cardinals could be an interesting team to watch this season.
The Jayden Daniels era begins in the nation's capital.
It's a tough year to be a Giants fan. That's all there really is to say.
If Bryce Young can look like a competent quarterback in 2024, that's about as good of a win as the Panthers will get this season.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Welcome to the NFL offseason, where receivers get paid lots of money (just ask Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins), the NFL continues to push for an 18-game season, the league and NFLPA discuss ways to ruin the offseason calendar and teams continue to go through their OTAs and mandatory minicamps.
So we asked our MMQB staff of NFL experts to answer a series of eight questions over the next two weeks. They debated the worst move Wednesday, so today they’re going to weigh in on the most improved teams.
Let’s get to their answers as we get closer to the NFL taking a break before July training camps.
Matt Verderame: Chicago Bears
The Bears not only added Williams, but added a weapon for him by selecting Odunze with the No. 9 pick / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
The Bears not only added Williams at the sport’s paramount position, but they also traded for veteran receiver Keenan Allen before nabbing wideout Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick, giving them a duo of talented pass catchers to go with DJ Moore.
With a defense boasting talent at all three levels including edge rusher Montez Sweat, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, corner Jaylon Johnson and safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears have talent in a way they haven’t since the days of Brian Urlacher and Matt Forte.
Should Williams realize his potential, Chicago could challenge for a playoff spot and potentially more in the NFC.
Gilberto Manzano: Washington Commanders
There’s usually one team that goes from last to first most NFL seasons. I’m not saying the Commanders will win the NFC East, but I’m giving them the best odds after finishing 4–13 last season.
Washington has drastically improved in various areas and not just with the roster. There’s optimism in the nation’s capital because Josh Harris replaced Dan Snyder as team owner. And new GM Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn had a strong first offseason in Washington.
Quinn could quickly build a formidable defense with the many savvy moves Peters made, including the signings of Dorance Armstrong, Frankie Luvu, Bobby Wagner, Jeremy Chinn and many other defenders. And it helps that Quinn already has head coaching experience from his time with the Atlanta Falcons.
I would say the Bears but Matt already jumped on the answer and did a fine job of articulating why. I’ll throw the Giants into the ring for two reasons: Brian Burns changes the calculus of this defense, and I like the combination of Brian Daboll and Drew Lock and am very curious to see if it ends up bearing some Geno Smith-ian fruit for the Giants. While I wasn’t sold on Malik Nabers as the best available wide receiver at that point, I think this team can win between eight to 10 games this year despite not having what one would consider a transformative offseason. The Giants are still low on weapons, but their offensive line will develop (read: has to develop) and this defense is seriously formidable, though I would have liked to have seen a repair in the Wink Martindale–Brian Daboll relationship to the point where Martindale would have gotten to use Burns.
Albert Breer: Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals selected Harrison with the fourth pick in the draft, giving Arizona a playmaker at a premium position. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY
I like the Giants and Bears, too, but Arizona has quietly continued to do very logical things to improve its roster, and set up a sustainable future. Moving Paris Johnson Jr. to left tackle, and signing Jonah Williams at a very reasonable price to replace him on the right side made the Cardinals younger, and better at the position. Marvin Harrison Jr. could quickly be among the NFL’s best skill players, and, thus, change the math for the rest of Arizona’s skill group. Top-100 picks Darius Robinson and Max Melton are tough, competitive, program fits at premium positions for the defense.
And, then, there’s Kyler Murray, who really seems to have turned a corner from a leadership standpoint since tearing his ACL two years ago. He’s been in the building and around the team more, while cementing himself as the triggerman for GM Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon’s build.
Now, I’m not saying the Cardinals are going to the playoffs. But I wouldn’t be stunned if they got to .500 or better, which would be a nice Year 2 jump for the group they have in charge.
Caleb Williams won't play his first NFL snap until September but his first season of professional football effectively already started. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft attended rookie minicamp last month and is currently in Chicago for mandatory minicamp with the rest of his Bears teammates. It seems he's already making a strong impression.
Bears tight end Cole Kmet spoke to reporters on Tuesday about Williams's insane competitive nature and shared a story to illustrate that trait. Kmet explained they had gone to Top Golf for an outing after practice and stayed there until 1 a.m. because Williams "had to finish the game." Kmet was quick to note he beat his quarterback.
The selling point of Top Golf is that it is fun and casual. Not to Williams, apparently. He wanted to win the Angry Birds target game so badly he stayed several hours past closing.
These are the sort of anecdotes that fans will hear plenty of this time of year. It's a staple of hype season— nobody hesitates to share these kinds of stories because they want to say nice things about their rookie teammates. Sometimes it's a sign of things to come, but more often than not such stories are forgotten once players step foot on the field.
Bears fans will find out for themselves soon enough if this particular tale is actually reflective of Williams's competitive nature.
The NFL offseason continues on but with teams gearing up for next season we have odds for who will make the postseason.
One of the most hotly contested divisions in the 2024 season is the NFC East, which features the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The Eagles made a splash in free agency by adding running back Saquon Barkley as well as hiring former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Can the Eagles hold off the Cowboys in hopes of getting back on top of the division and make the postseason?
There will be plenty of heated races in the postseason in addition to the NFC East one mentioned above, including a crowded group in the AFC East and AFC North.
Below you will find the odds for each team to make the postseason in 2024.
There are a ton of quality teams heading into the season with the postseason in its sights.
Look at the AFC East, who have three teams projected to make the postseason in terms of implied probability greater than 50%. The Dolphins have an implied probability of 57.38%, the Bills are 62.69% and the Jets are slightly ahead, listed at 62.96%.
Elsewhere, the AFC North has three teams with heavy odds to contend for the postseason, with its longest shot, the Steelers at only +190 (34.48%). The Ravens (72.60%), Bengals (70.15%) and Browns (42.37%) all have more than a puncher's chance to make the postseason.
The NFC East race is for the division, but both are expected to make the postseason in a much weaker conference, will the two be able to hold up? The Eagles and Cowboys each have mandates to win and better hope to at least make the postseason in order to keep the status quo.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The NFL offseason continues on, but that doesn't have to stop us from keeping an eye on the NFL futures market!
The top of the Super Bowl oddsboard is dictated by the two teams that made it to the big game last season with the San Francisco 49ers slightly favored over the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are once again viewed as a true contender to win the Super Bowl for a third straight year with the team set to return a majority of its core, but it's the 49ers who have the edge at the top of the oddsboard.
It's worth noting that the Niners are in the far easier conference relative to the AFC, and that's indicated in the odds. After the two aforementioned teams, the AFC has seven of the 12 other teams that have shorter than 25-1 odds.
Moreso, three of the next four teams are in the AFC with the Ravens, Bengals and Bills all viewed as legitimate threats to win the Super Bowl this season.
With training camp still a few months away, it's worth keeping an eye on more movement in the Super Bowl odds ahead of the 2024 season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The 2024 NFL season is still a few months out, but there's plenty of offseason content to look forward to for the famished fanbase. Among those is the annual edition of HBO's Hard Knocks, for which the participating team was revealed on Wednesday.
This fall, it will be the Chicago Bears taking center stage as the focus of the 2024 season of Hard Knocks, giving fans a behind-the-scenes look at one of the most intriguing rosters in the league as they look to start a new chapter with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
Hard Knocks will give fans an exclusive look into the Bears' training camp and grant access to some unique footage as the team goes through its preparations for the regular season, including inside looks at roster cuts, team meetings, practices and more.
There will be plenty to look out for, too.
Chicago's revamped offense features a plethora of new faces, as well as some returning ones. D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet figure to play prominent roles as weapons for Williams in his rookie campaign, and he'll also have newcomers such as rookie wideout Rome Odunze and veteran receiver Keenan Allen to throw to as well.
Only three teams this year were not given the option to reject the opportunity to appear on the show. In addition to the Bears, the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints also met the league's requirements, which include: Not having a first-year head coach, not making the playoffs in each of the past two seasons and not having featured on Hard Knocks in the past decade.
The 2024 edition of the popular series has not been given an official release date just yet, though it's set to be available for streaming on Max in the near future.
It was Oct. 14 in South Bend, Ind., and Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles was working the sideline as he normally would at a college game in the fall—looking, with a scout’s eye, for any little window he could find into the prospects he’d be evaluating in the winter and spring.
The USC offense was wrapping up warmups. The punt team was coming on. The Trojans’ reigning Heisman-winning quarterback, Caleb Williams, had looked over to the Irish sideline earlier, and spotted Notre Dame icon, and NFL legend, Joe Montana. Sensing the timing was right, he put his head down and went.
Poles watched intently.
Williams was born in November 2001, nearly seven years after Montana played his last game. Some of his contemporaries wouldn’t even know who Montana was, let alone recognize him in street clothes. But here was Williams, preparing for his final shot at Notre Dame as USC quarterback, compelled to pay homage to one of the game’s greats.
“They went to do some special teams things, he took his helmet off, ran over and shook his hand,” Poles said Thursday. “For a young kid to go up to a quarterback like that, Hall of Famer, and not as an, I’m in the same circle as you, but I look up to you, and, yet, there wasn’t this college fear of talking to an adult. He did it with confidence and swagger, but a ton of respect and humility at the same time—I couldn’t get that out of my mind.”
At the time, there was no way for Poles to know he’d have a prayer of landing Williams in the draft.
Sure, he had two first-round picks, and with the Bears’ record at 1–4 and the Carolina Panthers’ 0–5, there was a good chance both would be in the top 10. Still, he and his coach, Matt Eberflus, were headlong in the process of evaluating Justin Fields, coming off one of his best games as a pro, a four-touchdown effort in a Thursday Night Football win over the Washington Commanders, and it was pretty well-established by then that only one NFL team would have a shot at USC’s quarterback. There was also a lot of season left to be played.
So Poles filed the memory away, an early step he’d take in executing the Bears’ aggressive, forward-thinking plan to both give Fields a shot and be prepared for whatever opportunity Chicago’s draft position afforded him at the position.
This week, we’re going to take you, soup to nuts, through that plan, and how it got Poles and Eberflus to the point where they were ready to trade Fields and tie their job security to a guy who’s been tagged a generational talent at the position since he was a teenager. And what you’ll see is that just as that sort of big-picture view of the quarterback was important, so too were all the little details along the way.
Even if it was just that short interaction before the worst game of Williams’s college career.
We’re into a lull in the NFL offseason, with OTAs still a couple of weeks away, and the draft in the rearview mirror. But the league doesn’t really ever sleep, so we’ve got plenty to cover, and in this week’s Takeaways, that’ll bring you …
• A look at the Miami Dolphins’ marriage with Odell Beckham Jr., and why Beckham came so cheap. • Why Olu Fashanu was the play for the New York Jets, and which skill-position player they saw on his level. • The Buffalo Bills’ strategy in moving around before landing Keon Coleman.
… And a whole lot more.
But we’re starting this week with a look back at the top of the draft, and how the Bears got comfortable with the guy we’ve all assumed for a year now would go with the first pick.
The search for the next quarterback in Chicago had a soft opening, because the Bears’ situation going into the 2023 season demanded that.
Fields was going into his third year, after which the Bears would have to make a decision on his fifth-year option, priced out, fully guaranteed, at more than $20 million for 2025. Meanwhile, because of the trade with Carolina last year, Chicago didn’t have to be at the bottom of the league to get the top pick—meaning that Fields could play reasonably well and still face the reality that the Bears had a better option out there than just paying him.
So the team was judicious in kicking the process off. Step one was Poles mapping out an itinerary that would allow for him to see each of the top quarterbacks live in the fall.
With the benefit of a private jet, he went to Ann Arbor to see Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy against ECU, and Charlotte to see North Carolina’s Drake Maye against South Carolina on the Saturday of Labor Day weekend, then LSU’s Jayden Daniels against Florida State the next day in Orlando. He pulled a similar double over Thanksgiving weekend, with Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. on back-to-back days in Eugene and Seattle, against their respective rivals, Oregon State and Washington State. Plus there was USC at Notre Dame.
In each case, Poles had the benefit of seeing the guys throw the ball live. But, as the Montana anecdote illuminates, there was a lot more he was looking to come home with than what people could see with their cable subscriptions on those weekends.
“When you watch quarterbacks, you’re looking at body language more than even the game,” Poles says. “You can get the game by watching the tape. It’s really pregame, how they carry themselves. During the game, if something good happens, how do they react? If it was a bad play, an interception, what does it look like on the sideline in terms of interaction with coaches and other players?”
As luck would have it, Poles got to see all of that on a damp field on that October night.
The Trojans came in 6–0, and the rickety edges to that start—they’d needed Herculean efforts to get past Colorado and Arizona the two weeks before—collapsed under a hard-charging effort from the Irish. The defense, again, couldn’t stop a nosebleed. The offensive line could handle Notre Dame’s talented front. Williams needed to be Superman.
USC fell behind 24–6 at the half. Williams finished with three picks, failed to hit 200 yards passing and took six sacks. And as it was happening, Poles focused closely on the young quarterback, getting the chance to see his lowest moment as a college football player with his own eyes, through a set of binoculars.
“You saw a lot of encouragement with teammates, even after the interceptions,” Poles says. “You saw frustration, too, because it matters to him. But you never saw it become disruptive. You never saw teammates run away from him, or him run away and be by himself, away from his teammates. You saw him talking with the coaches trying to find solutions.”
It was important to see, too, for a couple of reasons. First, every young NFL quarterback is going to have those moments, and how they handle them can color how veterans on their teams see them. Second, Poles went into assessing the quarterbacks with the knowledge, after two years on the job, that not everyone is cut out for the searing spotlight of playing quarterback in Chicago—with Fields providing a good example of a guy who could take the bullets that come with the job. Williams, in real time, was showing the poise to do it.
So, at that point, Poles had something, if small, to pair with the tape. He had a good view of Williams’s regimented warmup routine (“It had a Steph Curry feel to it,” Poles says.). He had the Montana moment. And he had Williams’s handling of a very, very difficult night.
Three months later, the Bears wrapped up an encouraging 7–10 campaign that ended with a 5–3 flourish, and Carolina helped Chicago in floundering to 2–15 and locking up the No. 1 pick for Poles and Eberflus. By then, Poles had a baseline of information to work off.
Some came from national scout Francis St. Paul and West Coast area scout Reese Hicks, who kept telling Poles that he needed to get back out to California, and around the people at USC. He’d find out, they promised, that the narratives that circled Williams while the Trojans’ season circled the drain weren’t real. Investigate it yourself, they said. Read our reports. Investigate it.
Meanwhile, Poles, assistant GM Ian Cunningham and director of player personnel Jeff King had drilled down on the tape and started to form a conclusion that Williams was simply different from the rest of the class. The issues he did show—mainly his fumbling and risk-taking tied to playmaking—could be coached. And he had stuff you couldn’t coach in spades, to the point that Poles was reminded of evaluating Patrick Mahomes as a young Kansas City Chiefs exec in 2017.
“The creativity, the rare instincts and feel to navigate in space and see the entire field, when you see a lot of those, that’s the part that’s interesting,” Poles says. “I stole some things that we did with Andy [Reid] when we watched tape of Pat and that whole class. I took a lot of short throws, the bubbles, the screens, the jet sweeps out and looked at the intermediate throws and the deep throws to see what the accuracy looked like there. That’s where the completion percentage and all that stuff starts to mess around with the evaluation.
“We wanted to see it at its purest form.”
Poles and Cunningham dove deeper, looking at all of Williams’s third downs on one cutup, all his two-minute plays on another, all his plays playing from behind on another. The conclusion, Poles says, kept coming back to a few realities: “The field vision, the arm strength, the accuracy, all of that was rare. The body type, you were just missing height. He’s thick and strong and stout in his lowers. He just has the ‘wow’ factor.”
And in doing all this, Poles and Cunningham were jamming on the accelerator because decisions loomed with Fields, who’d been a good soldier for them. At exit interviews, Poles told Fields that the situation the organization was faced with was unique, in that, again, the team had finished strong, and still had the first pick. He pledged to him to be transparent and honest, and repeated all of it to Fields’s agent, David Mulugheta.
As that was going on, Eberflus was running a parallel track. With incumbent OC Luke Getsy let go, and a coordinator search coming, the coach would be tasked with diving into the tape as aggressively as the front office had, with timing important to everyone, Fields included, as the path for the coming weeks was charted. The good news was, as Poles put it, “The tape part, that, to me, was the easier part of evaluating Caleb.”
In time, Eberflus would concur.
The harder part in these cases is almost always getting to know the person. Having to do it earlier, to service the expedited timeline, forced Poles to get creative.
The GM instructed all of his personnel people going to all-star games in January to ask players who went to either Oklahoma or USC, or were from Williams’s hometown of Washington, D.C., about the quarterback. Poles also assigned one of his scouts to call opposing coaches in the Big 12 and Pac-12, and in particular defensive coordinators who game-planned against him.
“That’s where things started to turn,” Poles says. “You started to get this feedback from players at the all-star games who were like, ‘I love this guy. I was in a rut and he helped pull me out. He’s a dude. He’s selfless. He takes care of his teammates before he takes care of himself.’ Two opposing defensive coordinators: ‘We had to change everything before we played him.’ If you’re doing that, that tells you enough about the kid’s talent.
“Two former coaches that were at Oklahoma were like, ‘Man, I watched his kid carefully, what a great teammate, he’d take the time to call defensive coaches and get a perspective of his game so he can adapt and adjust his game and get stronger.’ I’m looking at Ian and Flus and I’m like, If you duped this many people, you’re a psychopath. It was too consistent.”
And through Eberflus’s offensive coordinator search, he and Poles got to interview USC assistant Kliff Kingsbury, where they’d get insight on Williams’s dad, Carl, who’d gotten a reputation as a helicopter parent. When they raised that, Kingsbury swiftly cut them off.
“Don’t even go there,” Kingsbury told the Bears’ guys. “You’ve got a businessman who’s just looking to put his son in the best situation, on the business side of things. When it comes to football, yes, he’ll want to set him up to make sure he’s in a good situation. Once that happens … it’s all good.”
At the interview in Los Angeles, Kingsbury told the Bears he’d seen Carl Williams once at the USC football facility all year.
As fate would have it, the former Arizona Cardinals coach wound up back in the NFL, landing as OC for the team that had the second pick, the Commanders, rather than the one with the first. The Bears wound up with former Seattle Seahawks OC Shane Waldron, picking him for his experience, his system and his work with quarterbacks, which most recently included bringing Geno Smith’s career back from football purgatory.
Once Waldron was aboard, Eberflus and the coaches could complete the tape review which, unsurprisingly, matched closely with what Poles and his scouts had. And it happened with Eberflus efforting not to talk to anyone, most notably, the Bears’ personnel staff, about the quarterbacks first, so he could get a pure, unprejudiced view of each one. Williams jumped off the screen.
“I just watched it that way and I found myself looking at it and it was pretty evident pretty quick that the arm talent is what stood out,” Eberflus says. “The accuracy, and, really, to me, [with] the really good quarterbacks, you always look for the ball speeds. So he can really change the ball speed when he’s throwing a screen, when he’s throwing a fade, when he’s throwing an in-cut. He understands space, open space, and has the natural ability, the instincts to really change that ball speed when necessary to be accurate.”
Eberflus would later meet with Williams’s throwing coach, Will Hewlett, and put science next to his evaluation. Hewlett told Eberflus that where most quarterbacks biomechanically have four-mph range on their throws, from touch throws to drive throws, Williams had a staggering 10-mph range, which quantified the control he had over the ball.
It was another brick in the wall. As the combine approached, a decision was crystallizing.
As he had at the 2023 combine, Poles reserved a room at the Hyatt Regency in downtown Indianapolis, in an effort to be a little more out-of-the-way than he’d be if he was staying at the bustling JW Marriott or Downtown Marriott. Last year, it was about not having everyone approaching him about trading the first pick. This year, likewise, it allowed for him to discreetly have some visitors to the suite the Bears booked for him.
Knowing Williams wouldn’t throw or work out, and already having dialed in on him as the guy if Chicago was going to trade Fields, Poles had two big boxes to check. One, he and the staff would have their 15-minute formal interview with Williams, their first chance to go face-to-face with the Heisman winner. Two, Williams’s team would come visit Poles in their suite.
On the former, the Bears had Williams as the last guest to their suite at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Williams strode easily into the room on that Wednesday night, at 10:40 p.m. Chicago, for its part, doesn’t have a room that’s trying to break a guy in those 15 minutes to see how he reacts. The atmosphere was relaxed. The Bears started with Waldron and the coaches teaching Williams a concept from the team’s new playbook. They went through some of Williams’s tougher moments at USC, to see if he’d take ownership for them. Then, they settled into normal conversation.
“You just recognized that he’s easy to talk to,” Eberflus says. “Personality is there. He’s a guy’s guy. He’s gonna fit in with his teammates.”
At the end of the session, with Poles, Eberflus, Cunningham, Waldron, team president Kevin Warren and pass-game coordinator Thomas Brown watching, the Bears asked that he teach the play they’d given him back to them. Williams did that with ease.
Two days later, on Friday of combine week, Poles welcomed members of Williams’s team to his suite at the Hyatt. Among the five guys to represent him was a lawyer and a body work guy, and a trainer, and in talking through things with them a clearer picture emerged for the Bears on how the kid approached the sport.
“You knew that structure mattered to him,” Poles says. “There were people in place to help him be successful. As you went along, you understand there’s people put in place that are there that allow him to play ball to be the best player he can be. It’s not like, ‘Hey, I have a team to say I have a team.’ Everybody’s got a role, and it’s to allow him to be the best football player he can be and eliminate as many distractions and stresses as possible.
“A lot of times we have to help them put structure together. This kid already has it there for him.”
Another detail that emerged from the meeting—Williams had rented out a field at a local high school to throw in the downtime he got through his week in Indy.
Even with the increasing inevitability that he’d be the first pick, he wanted to be at his very best for the pro day, two and a half weeks later on March 20. The Bears had previously scheduled Williams’s 30 visit, where they’d bring him to Halas Hall in Chicago’s north suburbs, for the following Tuesday, March 6, as part of their ongoing effort to speed up the process.
But sensing that Williams returning to L.A., then flying back to Chicago, and back to L.A. again may not serve anyone’s best interest, Poles resolved with Williams and his group to reschedule that visit for after the pro day, with plans for dinner next on the calendar, two nights ahead of USC’s pro day in California.
Before going back to Los Angeles, the Bears had to firm up the decision to move on from Fields, one that wasn’t easy for Poles or Eberflus because of the person their now former quarterback is, steady and tough as nails, as they’d worked through two years of rebuilding.
The hope in doing the 30 visit on March 6 was that they could check a last box—getting Williams to go through a physical—before moving Fields. But with Williams’s trip to Chicago rescheduled, and the start of free agency, when quarterbacking chairs would fill up, the time to wait and be patient was passing. The market for Fields hadn’t quite developed, but the Pittsburgh Steelers’ dustup with, and subsequent trade of, former first-rounder Kenny Pickett over the Russell Wilson signing gave Chicago an opportunity.
Knowing it’d be a good landing spot for Fields, Poles worked with the Steelers on trading the quarterback there for a 2024 sixth-rounder that would become a fourth if Fields played more than half the snaps. And as he closed in on the deal, on St. Patrick’s Day morning, Poles drove over to Eberflus’s house so the two could deliver the news to Fields together.
“We thanked him for his leadership, for the work ethic and just the man that he is, how he’s always been a wonderful guy,” Eberflus says. “I just told him, ‘Hey, I really enjoyed our relationship together the last couple years.’ I said, “That certainly doesn’t end here.’ The relationship that he and I built over the first couple years is special and no one can ever take that away from us.”
They thanked Fields for everything. Fields thanked them, and said he appreciated their alignment and open communication through a difficult few weeks. And then, Poles and Eberflus started calling team leaders, to let them know the trade was coming before the news of it broke.
Two nights later, the Bears were at The Bird Streets Club in West Hollywood, with Williams and a smattering of his USC teammates.
Williams, the Bears’ contingent noticed, never took his phone out of his pocket once. As it had been in Indy, the conversation came easily. In a lot of cases, Williams, in the most natural way, was carrying the conversation. He made eye contact with everyone.
“We just wanted to see how he interacted,” Eberflus says. “And really the only thing that you can glean from [a dinner like that] is personality. He could talk about a wide range of topics and with ease. Very conversational, personality is really good. So that was cool.”
Knowing the Bears were getting between four and five hours with Williams the next day at USC, on the Tuesday before the Wednesday pro day, Eberflus asked his colleagues to give him an hour with the quarterback one-on-one, to start Williams’s day.
The two sat down and went through his entire football journey, with much of the discussion moving to the support Williams’s parents had given him along the way, from the decision to switch from running back to quarterback in youth football, to coming up with a plan when he was in high school and pouring into it, to transferring after his freshman year and following coach Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma to USC.
“I found out during that conversation that his parents are so supportive, do anything for him, love him and have been great the entire way,” Eberflus says. “And it’s really a tribute to them, the kind of man he is, and the kind of character he has now.”
Eberflus then took Williams through the Bears’ rebuild, where the locker room was from a leadership standpoint, the progress they’d made through two years, and how he felt like the quarterback was fortunate to be coming to a team that wasn’t at ground zero. And as he did that, losing track of time, not knowing he’d gone 15 minutes over his allotted hour already, Eberflus got a text from Poles, half-joking, “You getting close to being done in there?”
Eberflus responded that it was important for the two of them to finish up.
They did, and the larger group then came in, with Waldron taking charge from there, running a three-hour meeting hyper-focused on football. The OC went back to what the Bears had taught Williams at the combine, and he was able to recall it. The Bears kept testing his recall, and he kept passing those tests, as they went through an install. He asked questions. He was on it. And it made the rest of the visit to L.A., with Williams’s throwing session on deck, a formality.
“He’s not one of these kids that acts like they have it figured out and then you stump them later,” Poles says. “If he was uncomfortable, he’d want to go back and learn it again. He had really detailed structure to how he takes notes—that stood out. Pro day itself, that part, throwing the ball is easy for him, so just seeing him work under center, footwork, all of that comes easy to him. The on-the-field stuff was the least of my concerns.”
There was one surprise during the workout, though. One of Williams’s future teammates, Keenan Allen, showed up for it. The Bears told Allen, when he came in for his physical after the Bears traded for him, that they’d be in L.A. for the pro day. But there was no expectation Allen would show up for it. That he did was a nice twist to a good week for the team. It also foreshadowed the next, and final, step.
Williams was one of six draft prospects to arrive for their 30 visits in Chicago on the night of April 2, with Oklahoma tackle Tyler Guyton, West Virginia center Zach Frazier, Alabama rusher Dallas Turner, Boston College corner Elijah Jones and Miami safety Kam Kinchens.
The Bears had Guyton, Frazier, Turner, Jones and Kinchens go with a group of coaches to Eddie Merlot’s in nearby Lincolnshire for dinner. Meanwhile, Williams was sent to Sophia Steak in Lake Forest, where he’d meet a crew of his future teammates—tight end Cole Kmet, guard Teven Jenkins, linebacker T.J. Edwards, and receiver DJ Moore—in a private room. Poles dropped Williams off there, and went to eat in another part of the restaurant.
The idea was one he and Eberflus had mulled for a while.
“We said, ‘I think it would be good that he meets with our players because that’s ultimately what matters,’” Eberflus says. “Ultimately, he’s going to be a teammate of these guys.’ And we want to get their feedback on, exactly, Is he a good teammate? Is he a guy’s guy? Is he easy to talk to? Is he easy to get along with?”
Check, check, check and check.
“You can’t fool the locker room,” Poles continues. “We got this roster and our leadership group, the core of it, in a really good place. They’re a bunch of really good human beings, so I thought it was important for them to be a part of this journey and this decision. I wanted them to make sure that they saw for themselves what this kid stood for and his passion for the game. I just felt like that was really important.
“As a staff, we’d spent so much time with him, at that point, that we all felt comfortable. I wanted our players to get a feel for him, and they did. The feedback was outstanding.”
The next day, the Bears repeated some of the things they’d already done, and some things that Poles had borrowed—or, to use his word, “stole”—from Reid and the Chiefs.
The coaches again installed with Williams early in the day and, after a midday break, came back to it and asked him to teach it back to test his recall. That was no more of a problem in Chicago for Williams than it had been in Indy or Los Angeles.
They also, finally, got the medical box checked with Williams. They’d been O.K. delaying it in March, even though it meant trading Fields without getting a physical on Williams first, because Williams really only had the pulled hamstring his sophomore year in college as a documented issue. But there was some relief, and finality, that came with the physical returning clean.
And they got to see Williams in what would be his workplace three weeks later, and watch as he got a first-hand view of the resources there, and what had been built, and would be in place for him, when he arrived for good.
“You’re not selling yourself, but at the same time, you do want to show all the way from the top, there’s an investment to the players that are here and we’re not really playing around with that,” Poles says. “I like all the guys seeing that. It was cool for him to see that too.”
Later in the day on April 3, Williams left one last time before the draft and everyone in the Bears’ building had a good feeling about where things were going.
But no promises were made.
Of course, everyone knew what was going to happen.
Still, Poles and Eberflus wanted to give Williams his day.
“It’s not like I kept him in the dark by any means,” Poles says. “There was some conversation about some things you talk about, that have to do with the future—Next week, this’ll happen, that’ll happen. I never gave him that official, Hey. we are taking you tomorrow, conversation. Was it a surprise to him? No, but I wanted him to go appreciate the process. You only get to go to the draft once in your life. We wanted to keep that as authentic as we possibly could."
So on the phone on draft night, Poles told Williams the league told him to hold the pick for five minutes, and he joked he’d been holding it for a month. Williams shot back that the Bears had been holding it for five months.
Of course, it hadn’t been that long. But this had become such an obvious decision for Chicago, that Williams’s guess on it wasn’t that far off.
And with it done, Poles could reflect back on the start of all this, and cutting the deal with former Panthers GM Scott Fitterer a year ago, when the Panthers came up from No. 9 to No. 1 to get their own franchise quarterback, sending Moore and a package of picks to the Bears in return. Never, at that time, could Poles have imagined that Williams would be part of that deal.
“It was a move I made, one, because I wanted to continue to evaluate Justin, and two, I knew we had to keep building our football team, Poles says. “We needed more players to close the gap on some of the years prior, with all the trades before. It was just a move to improve the football team.”
The GM then paused, and continued, “It ended up being a jackpot situation.”
With that luck on their side, the Bears wound up arriving at the conclusion most figured they would once Carolina secured the first pick for them. But they didn’t get there without doing a lot of work first. And now, with that work done, the quarterback Poles saw in South Bend can go about the business of chasing guys like the one he endeavored to meet that night.
The 2024 NFL draft’s done. Lots of clean-up work to do. So let’s not waste any more time and get to that …
On Odell Beckham Jr. and the Miami Dolphins, it’d be smart to follow the money. Last year, the 10-year veteran signed a deal in Baltimore at a base value of $15 million with upside to $18 million. This year, his base pay with Miami will be 20% of what he got with the Ravens—just $3 million—with upside to $8.5 million.
Now, to be sure, the fact that Lamar Jackson was in the midst of a drawn-out contract negotiation and wanted Beckham aboard gave the receiver leverage to get a bit of an overpay.
So maybe that’s part of why Beckham’s getting so much less. But that's not the only reason.
One executive from a team that’s been in the receiver market and explored signing Beckham told me last week it’s clear—at least to him—that the former All-Pro, after a decade in the league and with his 32nd birthday coming in November, has lost his burst. An executive from another team who also was in the market for a receiver saw it as being a little more nuanced than that.
“I don’t know if I agree that he’s lost it so much as that he’s just older, and that’s what the market says on older players,” says the AFC exec. “He’s not always healthy, which is part of that. By the end of last year, he looked good, his legs were back. Now, does he need to play himself back into shape? The offseason stuff being in the contract would be important for me. But you’re late on that, and can’t put workout bonuses in now.
“He signed so late in Baltimore, that he had to play himself back into shape. And when he did, his burst came back, and he could still do a lot of the normal OBJ stuff.”
But even then, the numbers weren’t there. He finished with 35 catches for 565 yards and three touchdowns, and had four catches for 34 yards in two playoff games with a league MVP at quarterback. Rookie Zay Flowers was the top guy in the offense after Mark Andrews went down, and Beckham didn’t do a ton to distinguish himself from Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman, both of whom the Ravens have back for 2024 (with Bateman on a new deal).
Now, that’s not to say he can’t help Miami. He’s different than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and his ability to be a physical run-after-catch receiver is still there. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was in San Francisco when the 49ers flirted with acquiring Beckham, so he’s clearly had plenty of time to think about how to use him. So he went to a good place.
I’d just say it’d be smart, at this point, to temper expectations on him.
The New York Jets followed their board. And their needs, too. Let’s start here—Olu Fashanu was a very clear pick for New York at 10, and then 11 after they flipped spots with the Vikings so Minnesota wouldn’t miss out on Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. And the story on that one goes back past the big left tackle’s final season at Penn State.
Coming into the season, the Jets viewed Fashanu as at least the equal of, and probably a better prospect than, Cardinals rookie Paris Johnson Jr., drafted sixth last year out of Ohio State. As summer turned to fall, Fashanu’s standing in the eyes of scouts did slip a little, and in particular because of how he played against Johnson’s old Buckeyes teammates in October. But Jets GM Joe Douglas and his staff had a different view of it.
Within that game, with Ohio State carrying two future NFL edge rushers and potential 2025 first-rounders in J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, yes, Fashanu got beat. But he also showed resilience in adjusting. In particular, there was a play early in the game where Tuimoloau beat Fashanu with an inside power move, where the pass rusher knocked the tackle back on his heels. Later in the game, with Penn State backed up to the goal line, Tuimoloau tried the same move, and Fashanu stoned him.
So even in his worst game, he was better than most. And then there were some of the comps, with a key one being how he played against Michigan’s Ravens-style defense, one that throws a lot at an offensive lineman. Compared to how Alabama’s JC Latham and Washington’s Troy Fautanu played against the same defense in the playoffs, Fashanu’s performance stood out and it happened, again, in a game that didn’t go the Nittany Lions’ way.
Putting all of that together, the Jets saw a guy who could be a long-term answer at one of the most important positions on the field. So the plan for now is to work with him at that position behind Tyron Smith rather than move him somewhere else.
All of that made the decision pretty simple for the Jets. The one who’d have complicated it for New York was Washington WR Rome Odunze. When the Bears took Odunze, the pick became academic (Fautanu would’ve been one fallback plan in the unlikely event neither Fashanu or Odunze made it to 10; Georgia’s Brock Bowers would’ve been another). And once Fashanu was aboard, their attention turned to receiver.
Similarly, that call came down to a few guys. The Jets actually liked Texas’s Adonai Mitchell, but got focused on the best run-after-catch guys they could find in range of their second pick at 72. Part of the reasoning was the history of the best of those receivers—Deebo Samuel in 2019, Brandon Aiyuk in '20, Garrett Wilson in '22, and Flowers last year (Kadarius Toney in '21 was the exception, for other reasons)—in each class translating easily to the NFL game.
And that’s where Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley and Michigan’s Roman Wilson came into focus, with Corley getting the edge because, where both were wired the right way and competed, he was 30 pounds heavier and, accordingly, played with more violence. At any rate, you’ll get to weigh that one out because the Jets could’ve gotten Wilson at 72, and instead gave up the 157th pick (CB Chau Smith-Wade) to land Corley.
For now, though, the Jets are pretty happy with how all of this played out. The reality? It was going to be a lot harder to get a tackle (if it’d been Odunze at 11, the Jets probably would’ve gone with Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie at 72), along with just how much they thought of both of the guys they picked.
For all of the criticism Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane took for trading with the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round, his reasoning was logical. And, yes, I understand it—and how the idea of arming the rival Chiefs with a guy who runs like Tyreek Hill (though Texas burner Xavier Worthy isn’t really built like the ex-Kansas City star at all) might give people in Buffalo the shakes.
The optics may not be great. But the reality Beane was working with had three elements to it. One, the Bills actually had a comfort level with all three of the receivers that came off the board between 28 and 33. Two, they had a 68-slot gap in picks early in the draft, after using their third-rounder to get Rasul Douglas from the Packers in October after Tre’Davious White’s injury. Three, in the aftermath of March’s roster reset, they had a lot of holes to fill.
On the first reality, the situation was almost the reverse of last year for the Bills, when Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid stood alone on the Bills’ board, prompting a trade up. That Buffalo had Worthy, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette and Florida State’s Keon Coleman right there with each other gave Beane the flexibility to deal to address the second reality, in order to service the third reality. In deals with the Chiefs and Panthers, the Bills moved the 133rd pick to 95, slipping into that gap between 60 and 128, while moving two other picks up 27 (248 to 221) and 59 (200 to 141) slots to still land Coleman.
Beane, like the rest of the league, knew the Chiefs could take Worthy, and that the Panthers and his old pro director/new Carolina GM Dan Morgan were looking to arm Bryce Young with another weapon. So that he was left with one of the three didn’t surprise him, and thathe was down to one of the three is why he resisted moving anymore, as offers for the pick came pouring in the day before the first round.
Buffalo ended up with a receiver whose biggest question was his timed speed, but who had the GPS tracking data of someone running in the 4.5s, and who was shifty enough, at 6’3”, to return punts as a collegian. Plus, combining that agility and ability to drop his weight as a bigger guy with a 38-inch vertical, the Bills thought, because he’s just 20 years old, he’d have the ceiling to get more explosive as a player (Legette, by comparison, is already 23).
One other interesting piece on Coleman was that he had the fastest gauntlet time, hitting 20.36 MPH, of any receiver at the combine, which translates to play speed.
All of which, again, isn’t to say that the Bills didn’t like Worthy or Legette. They did. But with those three in a cluster, getting one of them, while landing a third pick in the top 100 so they could come away with two players (Utah S Cole Bishop/Duke DT DeWayne Carter) on Day 2 rather than just one while improving their Day 3 standing simply made the most sense at the time.
Now, we’ll get to see if it looks that way once these guys get on the field.
There are two ways to look at Travis Kelce’s new contract in Kansas City. One would be that it is, indeed, a lot to pay for a tight end entering his 12th NFL season and turning 35 in October. The other would be that Kelce is one of the three bedrocks of the Chiefs dynasty, there’s value throughout your organization in rewarding that, and what a great tight end makes falls well short of what receivers, left tackles, defensive ends and corners make anyway.
Here's what you need to know on the deal …
• It’s a two-year, $34.25 million deal. It’s not an extension. Kelce had two years and $30.25 million left on his existing deal, without any guarantees. His pay for 2024, as part of the reworked contract, ticked up from $13 million to $17 million, and the Chiefs guaranteed all that money for him at signing.
• The second year remains at $17.25 million, and it’s not guaranteed yet. However, the Chiefs broke that money up, and put $11.5 million in a roster bonus that’ll be due on the third day of the 2025 league year. Which means, by mid-March, most of Kelce’s money for '25 will be locked in, creating an early decision point for the team to keep him aboard (not that it was looming as a big question).
• There are no void years on the back end to spread out the cap hit. The Chiefs, as a loose rule, try not to use that mechanism. They do restructure deals to create space (see: Mahomes, Patrick), but they’re usually pushing money into existing years on the contracts.
And, again, while $17.125 million per year is the most a tight end has ever gotten, it’s not crazy in the context of what receivers pull down. That’s what Jerry Jeudy will make with the Cleveland Browns after four mostly disappointing years with Denver. It’s less than what Christian Kirk is making in Jacksonville or Diontae Johnson made before he was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. So even if Kelce slips a little, and he did before rallying in the playoffs last year, chances are slim that this will look like a bad deal for the Chiefs.
So everyone wins on that one.
When I went back over the deal that A.J. Brown got from the Philadelphia Eagles, one thing that stood out to me was the amount of money the team has tied up in void years. Brown’s cap charges for the six years on his contract are as follows (2024 to '29)—$5.15 million, $10.91 million, $16.78 million, $20.71 million, $27.62 million, and $29.31 million. Add it together, and you get to $110.48 million, which is $53.52 million short of the $164 million that Brown is due between now and the end of '28.
The rest of those cap dollars went to void years, all $53.52 million. And void years have become an increasingly commonly used mechanism to simply spread cap hits out over a longer period of time, allowing for less pain now (and more of it later) as a team rewards its best players.
Looking at that outsized figure made me wonder how much of this the Eagles have done. I knew they’d done at least some of it. Turns out, every big Philly deal has void years: Jalen Hurts ($97.55 million), DeVonta Smith ($35.78 million), Jordan Mailata ($35.6 million), Landon Dickerson ($35.09 million), Darius Slay ($24.94 million), Dallas Goedert ($23.83 million), Lane Johnson ($22.48 million), James Bradberry ($21.39 million), Josh Sweat ($16.39 million), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($13.76 million), Brandon Graham ($10.27 million), Jake Elliott ($8.61 million) and, of course, Brown.
By my math, those 13 contracts have more than $399 million in cap dollars moved into years that void at the end of those deals—and there’s more of that on shorter-term deals such as those the Eagles gave to Devin White and Zack Baun.
That’s a staggering figure, and it explains why Philly seems to have so much flexibility each year.
So, in practical terms, what does it mean?
First and foremost, and similar to New Orleans, it shows a very real commitment from ownership to winning, because all of that money being accounted for three and four and five years from now is matched with cash going out the door during the actual life of the deal. Indeed, last year, against a $224.8 million cap, the Eagles spent $257.2 million in cash, third league-wide behind only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens. This year, Philly is one of two teams set to spend more than $300 million in cash (Cleveland is the other one).
All told, Philly could approach $600 million in player spending over a two-year span through which the cap is at $480.6 million. Again, it’s a tribute to Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie, because a lot of owners would not be willing to do that.
Second, that money doesn’t disappear against the cap. And this is where things get interesting. Because the figures have to be accounted for, the Eagles will walk a tightrope financially in offloading players at the right time (remember, the above numbers assume you see every deal through, and savings can be had if you cut ties early), spending on the right guys and drafting well to supplement years when more dead money is taken on.
In other words, GM Howie Roseman and the front office are gambling to win now, and that they’ll get a lot of things right going forward. Because a reckoning would come for them if they don’t.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was right, Caleb Williams was right, and more playing moving forward will make their decisions on the lead-up to the draft accordingly. The end result really does make this one academic. Williams went No. 1, so he couldn’t have gone any higher than he did. And you could argue the same for Harrison, since he was the first nonquarterback drafted.
Both made waves during the week of the NFL Scouting Combine for the approach they took. Williams declined to take a physical in Indianapolis on the premise that it made no sense for him to give his full medical information to 31 teams that wouldn’t have a chance to draft him. Harrison declined to work out or test there or at his pro day, with the idea being that rather than wasting time and money on training for Olympic testing, he’d be best simply preparing for rookie year.
In the end, it did no damage to either guy.
The Chicago Bears got Williams’s medicals on the 30 visit, and 31 teams that are now his rivals don’t have information that could be damaging to him or Chicago. The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, are ecstatic to get a player who will be ready to hit the ground running at rookie minicamp and OTAs after training with the Ohio State strength staff as he would if he were suiting up to play football for the Buckeyes in the fall.
Williams, for his part, only visited the Bears, while Harrison only visited Chicago and Arizona.
Now, here’s the other thing to remember—few players have the leverage to do what these guys did. In most cases, players need to give teams as much information as they possibly can to get those teams comfortable with the idea of drafting them. That’s a non-issue for very few.
But going forward, if you’re in the super elite class, what will you do? Probably follow the lead of Williams and Harrison, and handle the pre-draft process a la carte, only doing what is in your own personal best interest.
In the end, I’m counting 18 of 32 first-round picks from 2021 as having had their fifth-year options picked up. That’s counting guys who got extensions (DeVonta Smith, Penei Sewell) with the fifth-year option factored in (Rashod Bateman, who did a lower-end extension, doesn’t fit that description). And it’s a high number, for sure.
Last year, using the same logic (which counts Jordan Love as having had his picked up), just 13 of the 32 guys taken in the first round in 2020 qualified.
That number was by far the lowest since the rookie salary scale went into effect with the 2011 draft class. But there was a caveat to it—it was also the first year that the options were fully guaranteed upon being picked up, meaning teams couldn’t simply cut the guy a year later, so long as he was healthy.
What that tells you? The 2021 class, with players such as Trevor Lawrence, Micah Parsons and Ja’Marr Chase as headliners, was a very bumper crop of high-end players. And as such, Smith and Sewell will likely be just the first of a slew of these guys to sign blockbuster extensions before the start of their fourth seasons.
I do have one last take on the Atlanta Falcons’ handling of the quarterback situation. And that’s that I would 100% understand if Kirk Cousins is still stinging a bit from the whole ordeal.
Here’s why—a reason he decided to leave Minnesota is because the Vikings were very up front with the 35-year-old about the possibility that, even in the case he stayed, they’d take a quarterback of the future high in the draft. Tying that together with the team’s willingness to guarantee part, but not all, of a second year on another contract, Cousins figured that, if he stayed, there was a good shot that he’d be on the move in 2025.
I know Cousins appreciated how open the Vikings were about their draft strategy, even if it meant him leaving.
So if you were him, how would you feel when that call came, as his new team was on the clock, to explain how the Falcons were taking his heir apparent, Michael Penix Jr., with the eighth pick? Now, I do understand why Atlanta felt the need to keep it quiet, and why GM Terry Fontenot’s experience in New Orleans in 2017, when the Chiefs knew the Saints coveted Patrick Mahomes and jumped ahead of them to get him, marked the decision not to tell Cousins of their plans.
Still, it had to be a crappy call to take if you were Cousins, considering the basis of the decision you’d made six weeks earlier. It remains to be seen, of course, if that’ll lead to any sort of early fissure in the player-team relationship there. I think they’ll be able to get past it, because head coach Raheem Morris is a phenomenal relationship guy, and Cousins is an adult. But if there are early bumps in the season, this one will be interesting to watch.
I still don’t get the people who are so into the Pittsburgh Steelers trading for a big-name veteran receiver. It’s never been Pittsburgh’s m.o. to do something like that at that particular position. And I can’t imagine trading Johnson is some sort of big needle-mover in this regard, either.
Pittsburgh’s drafted 19 receivers over the last 18 draft cycles. The highest pick spent in the bunch was on Chase Claypool, who went 49th in 2020. Yet, without spending more than that on the position, they’ve wound up with Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Washington, George Pickens, Johnson and Claypool, all of whom wound up producing to varying degrees for the team.
On top of that, the last time the Steelers’ leading receiver wasn’t homegrown was in the year the United States entered World War II—1941 (Don Looney, if you’re scoring at home). And over the years, Pittsburgh has been able to replace guys such as Plaxico Burress, Wallace, Sanders and Brown as they’ve left the organization.
All of this history, of course, bodes well for the 84th pick in this year’s draft, Roman Wilson.
And probably not as well for those waiting on the Steelers to take some big swing on a vet.
I need to give my thanks to everyone, all of you included, for following along through this offseason, now that things have calmed down. That goes for our editors, and our NFL writers, and, again, for all you readers.
Conor Orr and I did this sort of thank you on the MMQB podcast last week, but I’ll repeat it here.
It’s no secret that it’s been a challenging three months at Sports Illustrated. It’d have been easy for people to take their collective foot off the gas, but I’m real proud of our NFL team for refusing to let that happen. And I’m grateful to all of you that kept coming back.
Now that the dust has settled from the NFL draft, it's time to examine some early futures markets and see where we can find value. Passing props have been released for several rookie signal-callers, giving us some insight into how Las Vegas values NFL freshmen.
Today, we kick off a new series, "Bet This, Not That." Use these articles as a guide for being creative and finding value when placing your wagers.
Regarding futures bets, weighing the payout vs. the time you'll tie up your bankroll is wise. Generally, I don't bet on season-long totals because that value is hard to find. But sometimes, there is a way to find value, or at least to get "hints" where you can find values in other markets. You can even use these markets as a good cheat sheet for how high to draft a player in your fantasy football drafts.
Let's look at the early futures markets for Bears QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. All odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Passing Yards: Over 3500.5 (-110) | Under 3500.5 (-110)
Passing TDs: Over 23.5 (-105) | Under 23.5 (-120)
First, let's start with some recent and historical trends:
Only 13 rookie quarterbacks have passed for more than 3,500 yards since 1970. Nine of those quarterbacks debuted in the last 10 seasons.
In 2023, rookie C.J. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards, ranking third behind Justin Herbert (4,336) and Andrew Luck (4,374). All three passers won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Justin Herbert's 31 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2020 remains the most of all time.
Only five rookie passers since 1970 have tossed 24+ touchdowns in their debut season, one of which was Daniel Jones.
Based on these historical facts, Las Vegas is high on Williams according to the opening market for his season-long stats.
The Bears have created a dream situation for the rookie signal-caller. Williams has two elite veteran wideouts in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, not to mention a solid pass-catching tight end in Cole Kmet and a pass-catching running back in D'Andre Swift. The Bears also added All-American wideout Rome Odunze out of Washington with their ninth pick in the NFL draft.
The Bears' defense is improving, the O-line should provide ample pass protection, and new OC Shane Waldron has a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. The Heisman winner out of USC has everything going in his favor.
However, it's also worth noting no Chicago Bears rookie has ever come close to these numbers. In fact, only two Bears quarterbacks have surpassed 3,500 passing yards: Jay Cutler (2009, 2014, 2015) and Erik Kramer (1995). No Bears QB has passed for more than 3,900 yards in the franchise's history.
So, will Caleb Williams set new standards in Chicago? With everything aligning, the Bears are certainly betting on it.
But I'm not.
I'm fading the futures market for Williams, though I will draft him as a QB2 in my fantasy leagues.
If you're high on Williams but want to bet for better value, consider his OROY future, which pays +200 instead. That makes him the favorite for the award, and though it may not be the best overall value for the OROY award, it's a better value than betting the over on his season-long player totals, and it has a chance to cash even if he falls short of his totals. After all, the odds for the Bears to make the playoffs are (-125). I'd rather tie up my bankroll for a chance at the plus-money payout.
Bet This: Williams OROY (+200)
Not That: Williams over 23.5 passing touchdowns (-105)
Justin Fields' career got a fresh start this offseason after the Chicago Bears shipped off the former No. 11 pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers in March. He is now expected to compete for the starting job in the Steel City, battling against free agent acquisition Russell Wilson and incumbent backup Mason Rudolph. However, that may not be all Fields is tasked with.
For the latest episode of Pro Bowler Cameron Heyward's podcast, Not Just Football, the Steelers defensive tackle invited running back Jaylen Warren to come on. Warren revealed the Steelers' special teams coach was considering having Fields return kicks in light of the new NFL rules introduced this offseason.
Well, that's certainly one way to utilize Fields' unique skillset. And it may not even end up the weirdest strategy special teams coaches will try under the new kickoff setup.
But, obviously, it sure does feel like an odd use of resources. Fields is an incredible athlete but an inconsistent quarterback. If a team were to unlock his potential, they'd have a legitimate superstar on their hands. Which is presumably why Pittsburgh took a flier on him as a team that has struggled to find an answer at the position following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger.
If the organization doesn't think he's going to be a NFL-caliber quarterback, then it might make sense to give him a shot at returning kicks. His ability to make defenders miss and break off long runs isn't dependent on him being in the pocket. If that's the case, however, that should probably come with a full positional change. Because if the Steelers think there is even the slightest glimmer of hope that they can turn Fields into a starting quarterback, there is no reason at all to risk him getting clobbered on a kick return.
NFL coaches probably discuss all sorts of crazy strategies in the offseason so it feels pretty unlikely we'll ever see Fields back for a kick return. If we do, though, then it will be the strongest indication yet of just how Pittsburgh views the 25-year-old quarterback.