SI’s MMQB Staff Debates the NFL’s Most Improved Teams

SI’s MMQB Staff Debates the NFL’s Most Improved Teams

Welcome to the NFL offseason, where receivers get paid lots of money (just ask Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins), the NFL continues to push for an 18-game season, the league and NFLPA discuss ways to ruin the offseason calendar and teams continue to go through their OTAs and mandatory minicamps. 

So we asked our MMQB staff of NFL experts to answer a series of eight questions over the next two weeks. They debated the worst move Wednesday, so today they’re going to weigh in on the most improved teams. 

Let’s get to their answers as we get closer to the NFL taking a break before July training camps.

Matt Verderame: Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb WilliamsChicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams

The Bears not only added Williams, but added a weapon for him by selecting Odunze with the No. 9 pick / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

If you believe Caleb Williams is going to be a star either immediately or in the near future, Chicago is the choice.

The Bears not only added Williams at the sport’s paramount position, but they also traded for veteran receiver Keenan Allen before nabbing wideout Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick, giving them a duo of talented pass catchers to go with DJ Moore.

With a defense boasting talent at all three levels including edge rusher Montez Sweat, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, corner Jaylon Johnson and safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears have talent in a way they haven’t since the days of Brian Urlacher and Matt Forte.

Should Williams realize his potential, Chicago could challenge for a playoff spot and potentially more in the NFC.

Gilberto Manzano: Washington Commanders

There’s usually one team that goes from last to first most NFL seasons. I’m not saying the Commanders will win the NFC East, but I’m giving them the best odds after finishing 4–13 last season. 

Washington has drastically improved in various areas and not just with the roster. There’s optimism in the nation’s capital because Josh Harris replaced Dan Snyder as team owner. And new GM Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn had a strong first offseason in Washington. 

Quinn could quickly build a formidable defense with the many savvy moves Peters made, including the signings of Dorance Armstrong, Frankie Luvu, Bobby Wagner, Jeremy Chinn and many other defenders. And it helps that Quinn already has head coaching experience from his time with the Atlanta Falcons. 

Most importantly, they might have a franchise quarterback with Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 pick in the draft. Expect the Commanders to be a lot better in 2024.  

Conor Orr: New York Giants

I would say the Bears but Matt already jumped on the answer and did a fine job of articulating why. I’ll throw the Giants into the ring for two reasons: Brian Burns changes the calculus of this defense, and I like the combination of Brian Daboll and Drew Lock and am very curious to see if it ends up bearing some Geno Smith-ian fruit for the Giants. While I wasn’t sold on Malik Nabers as the best available wide receiver at that point, I think this team can win between eight to 10 games this year despite not having what one would consider a transformative offseason. The Giants are still low on weapons, but their offensive line will develop (read: has to develop) and this defense is seriously formidable, though I would have liked to have seen a repair in the Wink Martindale–Brian Daboll relationship to the point where Martindale would have gotten to use Burns. 

Albert Breer: Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Cardinals selected Harrison with the fourth pick in the draft, giving Arizona a playmaker at a premium position. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY

I like the Giants and Bears, too, but Arizona has quietly continued to do very logical things to improve its roster, and set up a sustainable future. Moving Paris Johnson Jr. to left tackle, and signing Jonah Williams at a very reasonable price to replace him on the right side made the Cardinals younger, and better at the position. Marvin Harrison Jr. could quickly be among the NFL’s best skill players, and, thus, change the math for the rest of Arizona’s skill group. Top-100 picks Darius Robinson and Max Melton are tough, competitive, program fits at premium positions for the defense.

And, then, there’s Kyler Murray, who really seems to have turned a corner from a leadership standpoint since tearing his ACL two years ago. He’s been in the building and around the team more, while cementing himself as the triggerman for GM Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon’s build.

Now, I’m not saying the Cardinals are going to the playoffs. But I wouldn’t be stunned if they got to .500 or better, which would be a nice Year 2 jump for the group they have in charge.

Bears TE Shares Hilarious ‘Top Golf’ Story Showcasing Caleb Williams’s Competitiveness

Bears TE Shares Hilarious ‘Top Golf’ Story Showcasing Caleb Williams’s Competitiveness

Caleb Williams won't play his first NFL snap until September but his first season of professional football effectively already started. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft attended rookie minicamp last month and is currently in Chicago for mandatory minicamp with the rest of his Bears teammates. It seems he's already making a strong impression.

Bears tight end Cole Kmet spoke to reporters on Tuesday about Williams's insane competitive nature and shared a story to illustrate that trait. Kmet explained they had gone to Top Golf for an outing after practice and stayed there until 1 a.m. because Williams "had to finish the game." Kmet was quick to note he beat his quarterback.

The selling point of Top Golf is that it is fun and casual. Not to Williams, apparently. He wanted to win the Angry Birds target game so badly he stayed several hours past closing.

These are the sort of anecdotes that fans will hear plenty of this time of year. It's a staple of hype season— nobody hesitates to share these kinds of stories because they want to say nice things about their rookie teammates. Sometimes it's a sign of things to come, but more often than not such stories are forgotten once players step foot on the field.

Bears fans will find out for themselves soon enough if this particular tale is actually reflective of Williams's competitive nature.

NFL to Feature Bears on 2024 Season of 'Hard Knocks'

NFL to Feature Bears on 2024 Season of ‘Hard Knocks’

The 2024 NFL season is still a few months out, but there's plenty of offseason content to look forward to for the famished fanbase. Among those is the annual edition of HBO's Hard Knocks, for which the participating team was revealed on Wednesday.

This fall, it will be the Chicago Bears taking center stage as the focus of the 2024 season of Hard Knocks, giving fans a behind-the-scenes look at one of the most intriguing rosters in the league as they look to start a new chapter with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

Hard Knocks will give fans an exclusive look into the Bears' training camp and grant access to some unique footage as the team goes through its preparations for the regular season, including inside looks at roster cuts, team meetings, practices and more.

There will be plenty to look out for, too.

Chicago's revamped offense features a plethora of new faces, as well as some returning ones. D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet figure to play prominent roles as weapons for Williams in his rookie campaign, and he'll also have newcomers such as rookie wideout Rome Odunze and veteran receiver Keenan Allen to throw to as well.

Only three teams this year were not given the option to reject the opportunity to appear on the show. In addition to the Bears, the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints also met the league's requirements, which include: Not having a first-year head coach, not making the playoffs in each of the past two seasons and not having featured on Hard Knocks in the past decade.

The 2024 edition of the popular series has not been given an official release date just yet, though it's set to be available for streaming on Max in the near future.

Inside the Bears’ Process of Scouting Caleb Williams Before Drafting Him No. 1

Inside the Bears’ Process of Scouting Caleb Williams Before Drafting Him No. 1

It was Oct. 14 in South Bend, Ind., and Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles was working the sideline as he normally would at a college game in the fall—looking, with a scout’s eye, for any little window he could find into the prospects he’d be evaluating in the winter and spring.

The USC offense was wrapping up warmups. The punt team was coming on. The Trojans’ reigning Heisman-winning quarterback, Caleb Williams, had looked over to the Irish sideline earlier, and spotted Notre Dame icon, and NFL legend, Joe Montana. Sensing the timing was right, he put his head down and went.

Poles watched intently.

Williams was born in November 2001, nearly seven years after Montana played his last game. Some of his contemporaries wouldn’t even know who Montana was, let alone recognize him in street clothes. But here was Williams, preparing for his final shot at Notre Dame as USC quarterback, compelled to pay homage to one of the game’s greats.

“They went to do some special teams things, he took his helmet off, ran over and shook his hand,” Poles said Thursday. “For a young kid to go up to a quarterback like that, Hall of Famer, and not as an, I’m in the same circle as you, but I look up to you, and, yet, there wasn’t this college fear of talking to an adult. He did it with confidence and swagger, but a ton of respect and humility at the same time—I couldn’t get that out of my mind.”

At the time, there was no way for Poles to know he’d have a prayer of landing Williams in the draft.

Sure, he had two first-round picks, and with the Bears’ record at 1–4 and the Carolina Panthers’ 0–5, there was a good chance both would be in the top 10. Still, he and his coach, Matt Eberflus, were headlong in the process of evaluating Justin Fields, coming off one of his best games as a pro, a four-touchdown effort in a Thursday Night Football win over the Washington Commanders, and it was pretty well-established by then that only one NFL team would have a shot at USC’s quarterback. There was also a lot of season left to be played.

So Poles filed the memory away, an early step he’d take in executing the Bears’ aggressive, forward-thinking plan to both give Fields a shot and be prepared for whatever opportunity Chicago’s draft position afforded him at the position.

This week, we’re going to take you, soup to nuts, through that plan, and how it got Poles and Eberflus to the point where they were ready to trade Fields and tie their job security to a guy who’s been tagged a generational talent at the position since he was a teenager. And what you’ll see is that just as that sort of big-picture view of the quarterback was important, so too were all the little details along the way.

Even if it was just that short interaction before the worst game of Williams’s college career.

We’re into a lull in the NFL offseason, with OTAs still a couple of weeks away, and the draft in the rearview mirror. But the league doesn’t really ever sleep, so we’ve got plenty to cover, and in this week’s Takeaways, that’ll bring you …

• A look at the Miami Dolphins’ marriage with Odell Beckham Jr., and why Beckham came so cheap.
• Why Olu Fashanu was the play for the New York Jets, and which skill-position player they saw on his level.
• The Buffalo Bills’ strategy in moving around before landing Keon Coleman.

… And a whole lot more.

But we’re starting this week with a look back at the top of the draft, and how the Bears got comfortable with the guy we’ve all assumed for a year now would go with the first pick.

 Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) throws the ball in a game against the Browns.

Because of a trade with the Panthers the previous year, the Bears didn't have to finish the 2023 season at the bottom of the league in order to get the top pick, which put Fields's future in Chicago in doubt.

Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The search for the next quarterback in Chicago had a soft opening, because the Bears’ situation going into the 2023 season demanded that.

Fields was going into his third year, after which the Bears would have to make a decision on his fifth-year option, priced out, fully guaranteed, at more than $20 million for 2025. Meanwhile, because of the trade with Carolina last year, Chicago didn’t have to be at the bottom of the league to get the top pick—meaning that Fields could play reasonably well and still face the reality that the Bears had a better option out there than just paying him.

So the team was judicious in kicking the process off. Step one was Poles mapping out an itinerary that would allow for him to see each of the top quarterbacks live in the fall.

With the benefit of a private jet, he went to Ann Arbor to see Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy against ECU, and Charlotte to see North Carolina’s Drake Maye against South Carolina on the Saturday of Labor Day weekend, then LSU’s Jayden Daniels against Florida State the next day in Orlando. He pulled a similar double over Thanksgiving weekend, with Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. on back-to-back days in Eugene and Seattle, against their respective rivals, Oregon State and Washington State. Plus there was USC at Notre Dame.

In each case, Poles had the benefit of seeing the guys throw the ball live. But, as the Montana anecdote illuminates, there was a lot more he was looking to come home with than what people could see with their cable subscriptions on those weekends.

“When you watch quarterbacks, you’re looking at body language more than even the game,” Poles says. “You can get the game by watching the tape. It’s really pregame, how they carry themselves. During the game, if something good happens, how do they react? If it was a bad play, an interception, what does it look like on the sideline in terms of interaction with coaches and other players?”

As luck would have it, Poles got to see all of that on a damp field on that October night.

The Trojans came in 6–0, and the rickety edges to that start—they’d needed Herculean efforts to get past Colorado and Arizona the two weeks before—collapsed under a hard-charging effort from the Irish. The defense, again, couldn’t stop a nosebleed. The offensive line could handle Notre Dame’s talented front. Williams needed to be Superman.

USC fell behind 24–6 at the half. Williams finished with three picks, failed to hit 200 yards passing and took six sacks. And as it was happening, Poles focused closely on the young quarterback, getting the chance to see his lowest moment as a college football player with his own eyes, through a set of binoculars.

USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs the ball in a game against Notre Dame.

Despite playing the worst games in his college career against Notre Dame, Williams left a positive impression on Bears GM Ryan Pole in South Bend.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

“You saw a lot of encouragement with teammates, even after the interceptions,” Poles says. “You saw frustration, too, because it matters to him. But you never saw it become disruptive. You never saw teammates run away from him, or him run away and be by himself, away from his teammates. You saw him talking with the coaches trying to find solutions.”

It was important to see, too, for a couple of reasons. First, every young NFL quarterback is going to have those moments, and how they handle them can color how veterans on their teams see them. Second, Poles went into assessing the quarterbacks with the knowledge, after two years on the job, that not everyone is cut out for the searing spotlight of playing quarterback in Chicago—with Fields providing a good example of a guy who could take the bullets that come with the job. Williams, in real time, was showing the poise to do it.

So, at that point, Poles had something, if small, to pair with the tape. He had a good view of Williams’s regimented warmup routine (“It had a Steph Curry feel to it,” Poles says.). He had the Montana moment. And he had Williams’s handling of a very, very difficult night.

Three months later, the Bears wrapped up an encouraging 7–10 campaign that ended with a 5–3 flourish, and Carolina helped Chicago in floundering to 2–15 and locking up the No. 1 pick for Poles and Eberflus. By then, Poles had a baseline of information to work off.

Some came from national scout Francis St. Paul and West Coast area scout Reese Hicks, who kept telling Poles that he needed to get back out to California, and around the people at USC. He’d find out, they promised, that the narratives that circled Williams while the Trojans’ season circled the drain weren’t real. Investigate it yourself, they said. Read our reports. Investigate it.

Meanwhile, Poles, assistant GM Ian Cunningham and director of player personnel Jeff King had drilled down on the tape and started to form a conclusion that Williams was simply different from the rest of the class. The issues he did show—mainly his fumbling and risk-taking tied to playmaking—could be coached. And he had stuff you couldn’t coach in spades, to the point that Poles was reminded of evaluating Patrick Mahomes as a young Kansas City Chiefs exec in 2017.

“The creativity, the rare instincts and feel to navigate in space and see the entire field, when you see a lot of those, that’s the part that’s interesting,” Poles says. “I stole some things that we did with Andy [Reid] when we watched tape of Pat and that whole class. I took a lot of short throws, the bubbles, the screens, the jet sweeps out and looked at the intermediate throws and the deep throws to see what the accuracy looked like there. That’s where the completion percentage and all that stuff starts to mess around with the evaluation.

“We wanted to see it at its purest form.”

Poles and Cunningham dove deeper, looking at all of Williams’s third downs on one cutup, all his two-minute plays on another, all his plays playing from behind on another. The conclusion, Poles says, kept coming back to a few realities: “The field vision, the arm strength, the accuracy, all of that was rare. The body type, you were just missing height. He’s thick and strong and stout in his lowers. He just has the ‘wow’ factor.”

And in doing all this, Poles and Cunningham were jamming on the accelerator because decisions loomed with Fields, who’d been a good soldier for them. At exit interviews, Poles told Fields that the situation the organization was faced with was unique, in that, again, the team had finished strong, and still had the first pick. He pledged to him to be transparent and honest, and repeated all of it to Fields’s agent, David Mulugheta.

As that was going on, Eberflus was running a parallel track. With incumbent OC Luke Getsy let go, and a coordinator search coming, the coach would be tasked with diving into the tape as aggressively as the front office had, with timing important to everyone, Fields included, as the path for the coming weeks was charted. The good news was, as Poles put it, “The tape part, that, to me, was the easier part of evaluating Caleb.”

In time, Eberflus would concur.

The harder part in these cases is almost always getting to know the person. Having to do it earlier, to service the expedited timeline, forced Poles to get creative.

The GM instructed all of his personnel people going to all-star games in January to ask players who went to either Oklahoma or USC, or were from Williams’s hometown of Washington, D.C., about the quarterback. Poles also assigned one of his scouts to call opposing coaches in the Big 12 and Pac-12, and in particular defensive coordinators who game-planned against him.

“That’s where things started to turn,” Poles says. “You started to get this feedback from players at the all-star games who were like, ‘I love this guy. I was in a rut and he helped pull me out. He’s a dude. He’s selfless. He takes care of his teammates before he takes care of himself.’ Two opposing defensive coordinators: ‘We had to change everything before we played him.’ If you’re doing that, that tells you enough about the kid’s talent.

“Two former coaches that were at Oklahoma were like, ‘Man, I watched his kid carefully, what a great teammate, he’d take the time to call defensive coaches and get a perspective of his game so he can adapt and adjust his game and get stronger.’ I’m looking at Ian and Flus and I’m like, If you duped this many people, you’re a psychopath. It was too consistent.”

And through Eberflus’s offensive coordinator search, he and Poles got to interview USC assistant Kliff Kingsbury, where they’d get insight on Williams’s dad, Carl, who’d gotten a reputation as a helicopter parent. When they raised that, Kingsbury swiftly cut them off.

USC assistant coach Kliff Kingsbury talks to quarterback Caleb Williams on the sidelines.

When Kingsbury interviewed for the Bears' OC position, he helped clarify some narratives about Wililams, who Kingsbury worked closely with at USC.

Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY

“Don’t even go there,” Kingsbury told the Bears’ guys. “You’ve got a businessman who’s just looking to put his son in the best situation, on the business side of things. When it comes to football, yes, he’ll want to set him up to make sure he’s in a good situation. Once that happens … it’s all good.”

At the interview in Los Angeles, Kingsbury told the Bears he’d seen Carl Williams once at the USC football facility all year.

As fate would have it, the former Arizona Cardinals coach wound up back in the NFL, landing as OC for the team that had the second pick, the Commanders, rather than the one with the first. The Bears wound up with former Seattle Seahawks OC Shane Waldron, picking him for his experience, his system and his work with quarterbacks, which most recently included bringing Geno Smith’s career back from football purgatory.

Once Waldron was aboard, Eberflus and the coaches could complete the tape review which, unsurprisingly, matched closely with what Poles and his scouts had. And it happened with Eberflus efforting not to talk to anyone, most notably, the Bears’ personnel staff, about the quarterbacks first, so he could get a pure, unprejudiced view of each one. Williams jumped off the screen.

“I just watched it that way and I found myself looking at it and it was pretty evident pretty quick that the arm talent is what stood out,” Eberflus says. “The accuracy, and, really, to me, [with] the really good quarterbacks, you always look for the ball speeds. So he can really change the ball speed when he’s throwing a screen, when he’s throwing a fade, when he’s throwing an in-cut. He understands space, open space, and has the natural ability, the instincts to really change that ball speed when necessary to be accurate.”

Eberflus would later meet with Williams’s throwing coach, Will Hewlett, and put science next to his evaluation. Hewlett told Eberflus that where most quarterbacks biomechanically have four-mph range on their throws, from touch throws to drive throws, Williams had a staggering 10-mph range, which quantified the control he had over the ball.

It was another brick in the wall. As the combine approached, a decision was crystallizing.

As he had at the 2023 combine, Poles reserved a room at the Hyatt Regency in downtown Indianapolis, in an effort to be a little more out-of-the-way than he’d be if he was staying at the bustling JW Marriott or Downtown Marriott. Last year, it was about not having everyone approaching him about trading the first pick. This year, likewise, it allowed for him to discreetly have some visitors to the suite the Bears booked for him.

Knowing Williams wouldn’t throw or work out, and already having dialed in on him as the guy if Chicago was going to trade Fields, Poles had two big boxes to check. One, he and the staff would have their 15-minute formal interview with Williams, their first chance to go face-to-face with the Heisman winner. Two, Williams’s team would come visit Poles in their suite.

On the former, the Bears had Williams as the last guest to their suite at Lucas Oil Stadium.

USC quarterback Caleb Williams (QB14) during the 2024 NFL combine.

Although Williams didn't work out or throw during the combine, the Bears still used the time in Indianapolis to get to know the QB better.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Williams strode easily into the room on that Wednesday night, at 10:40 p.m. Chicago, for its part, doesn’t have a room that’s trying to break a guy in those 15 minutes to see how he reacts. The atmosphere was relaxed. The Bears started with Waldron and the coaches teaching Williams a concept from the team’s new playbook. They went through some of Williams’s tougher moments at USC, to see if he’d take ownership for them. Then, they settled into normal conversation.

“You just recognized that he’s easy to talk to,” Eberflus says. “Personality is there. He’s a guy’s guy. He’s gonna fit in with his teammates.”

At the end of the session, with Poles, Eberflus, Cunningham, Waldron, team president Kevin Warren and pass-game coordinator Thomas Brown watching, the Bears asked that he teach the play they’d given him back to them. Williams did that with ease.

Two days later, on Friday of combine week, Poles welcomed members of Williams’s team to his suite at the Hyatt. Among the five guys to represent him was a lawyer and a body work guy, and a trainer, and in talking through things with them a clearer picture emerged for the Bears on how the kid approached the sport.

“You knew that structure mattered to him,” Poles says. “There were people in place to help him be successful. As you went along, you understand there’s people put in place that are there that allow him to play ball to be the best player he can be. It’s not like, ‘Hey, I have a team to say I have a team.’ Everybody’s got a role, and it’s to allow him to be the best football player he can be and eliminate as many distractions and stresses as possible.

“A lot of times we have to help them put structure together. This kid already has it there for him.”

Another detail that emerged from the meeting—Williams had rented out a field at a local high school to throw in the downtime he got through his week in Indy.

Even with the increasing inevitability that he’d be the first pick, he wanted to be at his very best for the pro day, two and a half weeks later on March 20. The Bears had previously scheduled Williams’s 30 visit, where they’d bring him to Halas Hall in Chicago’s north suburbs, for the following Tuesday, March 6, as part of their ongoing effort to speed up the process.

But sensing that Williams returning to L.A., then flying back to Chicago, and back to L.A. again may not serve anyone’s best interest, Poles resolved with Williams and his group to reschedule that visit for after the pro day, with plans for dinner next on the calendar, two nights ahead of USC’s pro day in California.

Before going back to Los Angeles, the Bears had to firm up the decision to move on from Fields, one that wasn’t easy for Poles or Eberflus because of the person their now former quarterback is, steady and tough as nails, as they’d worked through two years of rebuilding.

The hope in doing the 30 visit on March 6 was that they could check a last box—getting Williams to go through a physical—before moving Fields. But with Williams’s trip to Chicago rescheduled, and the start of free agency, when quarterbacking chairs would fill up, the time to wait and be patient was passing. The market for Fields hadn’t quite developed, but the Pittsburgh Steelers’ dustup with, and subsequent trade of, former first-rounder Kenny Pickett over the Russell Wilson signing gave Chicago an opportunity.

Knowing it’d be a good landing spot for Fields, Poles worked with the Steelers on trading the quarterback there for a 2024 sixth-rounder that would become a fourth if Fields played more than half the snaps. And as he closed in on the deal, on St. Patrick’s Day morning, Poles drove over to Eberflus’s house so the two could deliver the news to Fields together.

“We thanked him for his leadership, for the work ethic and just the man that he is, how he’s always been a wonderful guy,” Eberflus says. “I just told him, ‘Hey, I really enjoyed our relationship together the last couple years.’ I said, “That certainly doesn’t end here.’ The relationship that he and I built over the first couple years is special and no one can ever take that away from us.”

They thanked Fields for everything. Fields thanked them, and said he appreciated their alignment and open communication through a difficult few weeks. And then, Poles and Eberflus started calling team leaders, to let them know the trade was coming before the news of it broke.

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) during warmups against the Green Bay Packers.

Sending Fields to the Steelers was one of the last puzzle pieces for Chicago's plan to take Williams in the draft.

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Two nights later, the Bears were at The Bird Streets Club in West Hollywood, with Williams and a smattering of his USC teammates.

Williams, the Bears’ contingent noticed, never took his phone out of his pocket once. As it had been in Indy, the conversation came easily. In a lot of cases, Williams, in the most natural way, was carrying the conversation. He made eye contact with everyone.

“We just wanted to see how he interacted,” Eberflus says. “And really the only thing that you can glean from [a dinner like that] is personality. He could talk about a wide range of topics and with ease. Very conversational, personality is really good. So that was cool.”

Knowing the Bears were getting between four and five hours with Williams the next day at USC, on the Tuesday before the Wednesday pro day, Eberflus asked his colleagues to give him an hour with the quarterback one-on-one, to start Williams’s day.

The two sat down and went through his entire football journey, with much of the discussion moving to the support Williams’s parents had given him along the way, from the decision to switch from running back to quarterback in youth football, to coming up with a plan when he was in high school and pouring into it, to transferring after his freshman year and following coach Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma to USC.

“I found out during that conversation that his parents are so supportive, do anything for him, love him and have been great the entire way,” Eberflus says. “And it’s really a tribute to them, the kind of man he is, and the kind of character he has now.”

Eberflus then took Williams through the Bears’ rebuild, where the locker room was from a leadership standpoint, the progress they’d made through two years, and how he felt like the quarterback was fortunate to be coming to a team that wasn’t at ground zero. And as he did that, losing track of time, not knowing he’d gone 15 minutes over his allotted hour already, Eberflus got a text from Poles, half-joking, “You getting close to being done in there?”

Eberflus responded that it was important for the two of them to finish up.

They did, and the larger group then came in, with Waldron taking charge from there, running a three-hour meeting hyper-focused on football. The OC went back to what the Bears had taught Williams at the combine, and he was able to recall it. The Bears kept testing his recall, and he kept passing those tests, as they went through an install. He asked questions. He was on it. And it made the rest of the visit to L.A., with Williams’s throwing session on deck, a formality.

“He’s not one of these kids that acts like they have it figured out and then you stump them later,” Poles says. “If he was uncomfortable, he’d want to go back and learn it again. He had really detailed structure to how he takes notes—that stood out. Pro day itself, that part, throwing the ball is easy for him, so just seeing him work under center, footwork, all of that comes easy to him. The on-the-field stuff was the least of my concerns.”

There was one surprise during the workout, though. One of Williams’s future teammates, Keenan Allen, showed up for it. The Bears told Allen, when he came in for his physical after the Bears traded for him, that they’d be in L.A. for the pro day. But there was no expectation Allen would show up for it. That he did was a nice twist to a good week for the team. It also foreshadowed the next, and final, step.

Williams was one of six draft prospects to arrive for their 30 visits in Chicago on the night of April 2, with Oklahoma tackle Tyler Guyton, West Virginia center Zach Frazier, Alabama rusher Dallas Turner, Boston College corner Elijah Jones and Miami safety Kam Kinchens.

The Bears had Guyton, Frazier, Turner, Jones and Kinchens go with a group of coaches to Eddie Merlot’s in nearby Lincolnshire for dinner. Meanwhile, Williams was sent to Sophia Steak in Lake Forest, where he’d meet a crew of his future teammates—tight end Cole Kmet, guard Teven Jenkins, linebacker T.J. Edwards, and receiver DJ Moore—in a private room. Poles dropped Williams off there, and went to eat in another part of the restaurant.

The idea was one he and Eberflus had mulled for a while.

“We said, ‘I think it would be good that he meets with our players because that’s ultimately what matters,’” Eberflus says. “Ultimately, he’s going to be a teammate of these guys.’ And we want to get their feedback on, exactly, Is he a good teammate? Is he a guy’s guy? Is he easy to talk to? Is he easy to get along with?

Check, check, check and check.

“You can’t fool the locker room,” Poles continues. “We got this roster and our leadership group, the core of it, in a really good place. They’re a bunch of really good human beings, so I thought it was important for them to be a part of this journey and this decision. I wanted them to make sure that they saw for themselves what this kid stood for and his passion for the game. I just felt like that was really important.

“As a staff, we’d spent so much time with him, at that point, that we all felt comfortable. I wanted our players to get a feel for him, and they did. The feedback was outstanding.”

The next day, the Bears repeated some of the things they’d already done, and some things that Poles had borrowed—or, to use his word, “stole”—from Reid and the Chiefs.

The coaches again installed with Williams early in the day and, after a midday break, came back to it and asked him to teach it back to test his recall. That was no more of a problem in Chicago for Williams than it had been in Indy or Los Angeles.

They also, finally, got the medical box checked with Williams. They’d been O.K. delaying it in March, even though it meant trading Fields without getting a physical on Williams first, because Williams really only had the pulled hamstring his sophomore year in college as a documented issue. But there was some relief, and finality, that came with the physical returning clean.

And they got to see Williams in what would be his workplace three weeks later, and watch as he got a first-hand view of the resources there, and what had been built, and would be in place for him, when he arrived for good.

“You’re not selling yourself, but at the same time, you do want to show all the way from the top, there’s an investment to the players that are here and we’re not really playing around with that,” Poles says. “I like all the guys seeing that. It was cool for him to see that too.”

Later in the day on April 3, Williams left one last time before the draft and everyone in the Bears’ building had a good feeling about where things were going.

But no promises were made.

Caleb Williams walks the red carpet for NFL Draft day at the Fox Theatre in Detroit.

"You only get to go to the draft once in your life. We wanted to keep that as authentic as we possibly could," Poles said of not confirming that the Bears would pick Williams until the night of the draft.

Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK

Of course, everyone knew what was going to happen.

Still, Poles and Eberflus wanted to give Williams his day.

“It’s not like I kept him in the dark by any means,” Poles says. “There was some conversation about some things you talk about, that have to do with the future—Next week, this’ll happen, that’ll happen. I never gave him that official, Hey. we are taking you tomorrow, conversation. Was it a surprise to him? No, but I wanted him to go appreciate the process. You only get to go to the draft once in your life. We wanted to keep that as authentic as we possibly could."

So on the phone on draft night, Poles told Williams the league told him to hold the pick for five minutes, and he joked he’d been holding it for a month. Williams shot back that the Bears had been holding it for five months.

Of course, it hadn’t been that long. But this had become such an obvious decision for Chicago, that Williams’s guess on it wasn’t that far off.

And with it done, Poles could reflect back on the start of all this, and cutting the deal with former Panthers GM Scott Fitterer a year ago, when the Panthers came up from No. 9 to No. 1 to get their own franchise quarterback, sending Moore and a package of picks to the Bears in return. Never, at that time, could Poles have imagined that Williams would be part of that deal.

“It was a move I made, one, because I wanted to continue to evaluate Justin, and two, I knew we had to keep building our football team, Poles says. “We needed more players to close the gap on some of the years prior, with all the trades before. It was just a move to improve the football team.”

The GM then paused, and continued, “It ended up being a jackpot situation.”

With that luck on their side, the Bears wound up arriving at the conclusion most figured they would once Carolina secured the first pick for them. But they didn’t get there without doing a lot of work first. And now, with that work done, the quarterback Poles saw in South Bend can go about the business of chasing guys like the one he endeavored to meet that night.

Takeaways: Odell Beckham Jr.’s Dolphins Deal Reflects His New Reality

Takeaways: Odell Beckham Jr.’s Dolphins Deal Reflects His New Reality

The 2024 NFL draft’s done. Lots of clean-up work to do. So let’s not waste any more time and get to that …

On Odell Beckham Jr. and the Miami Dolphins, it’d be smart to follow the money. Last year, the 10-year veteran signed a deal in Baltimore at a base value of $15 million with upside to $18 million. This year, his base pay with Miami will be 20% of what he got with the Ravens—just $3 million—with upside to $8.5 million.

Now, to be sure, the fact that Lamar Jackson was in the midst of a drawn-out contract negotiation and wanted Beckham aboard gave the receiver leverage to get a bit of an overpay.

So maybe that’s part of why Beckham’s getting so much less. But that's not the only reason.

One executive from a team that’s been in the receiver market and explored signing Beckham told me last week it’s clear—at least to him—that the former All-Pro, after a decade in the league and with his 32nd birthday coming in November, has lost his burst. An executive from another team who also was in the market for a receiver saw it as being a little more nuanced than that.

“I don’t know if I agree that he’s lost it so much as that he’s just older, and that’s what the market says on older players,” says the AFC exec. “He’s not always healthy, which is part of that. By the end of last year, he looked good, his legs were back. Now, does he need to play himself back into shape? The offseason stuff being in the contract would be important for me. But you’re late on that, and can’t put workout bonuses in now.

“He signed so late in Baltimore, that he had to play himself back into shape. And when he did, his burst came back, and he could still do a lot of the normal OBJ stuff.”

But even then, the numbers weren’t there. He finished with 35 catches for 565 yards and three touchdowns, and had four catches for 34 yards in two playoff games with a league MVP at quarterback. Rookie Zay Flowers was the top guy in the offense after Mark Andrews went down, and Beckham didn’t do a ton to distinguish himself from Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman, both of whom the Ravens have back for 2024 (with Bateman on a new deal).

Now, that’s not to say he can’t help Miami. He’s different than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and his ability to be a physical run-after-catch receiver is still there. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel was in San Francisco when the 49ers flirted with acquiring Beckham, so he’s clearly had plenty of time to think about how to use him. So he went to a good place.

I’d just say it’d be smart, at this point, to temper expectations on him.

The New York Jets followed their board. And their needs, too. Let’s start here—Olu Fashanu was a very clear pick for New York at 10, and then 11 after they flipped spots with the Vikings so Minnesota wouldn’t miss out on Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. And the story on that one goes back past the big left tackle’s final season at Penn State.

Coming into the season, the Jets viewed Fashanu as at least the equal of, and probably a better prospect than, Cardinals rookie Paris Johnson Jr., drafted sixth last year out of Ohio State. As summer turned to fall, Fashanu’s standing in the eyes of scouts did slip a little, and in particular because of how he played against Johnson’s old Buckeyes teammates in October. But Jets GM Joe Douglas and his staff had a different view of it.

Within that game, with Ohio State carrying two future NFL edge rushers and potential 2025 first-rounders in J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, yes, Fashanu got beat. But he also showed resilience in adjusting. In particular, there was a play early in the game where Tuimoloau beat Fashanu with an inside power move, where the pass rusher knocked the tackle back on his heels. Later in the game, with Penn State backed up to the goal line, Tuimoloau tried the same move, and Fashanu stoned him.

So even in his worst game, he was better than most. And then there were some of the comps, with a key one being how he played against Michigan’s Ravens-style defense, one that throws a lot at an offensive lineman. Compared to how Alabama’s JC Latham and Washington’s Troy Fautanu played against the same defense in the playoffs, Fashanu’s performance stood out and it happened, again, in a game that didn’t go the Nittany Lions’ way.

Putting all of that together, the Jets saw a guy who could be a long-term answer at one of the most important positions on the field. So the plan for now is to work with him at that position behind Tyron Smith rather than move him somewhere else.

All of that made the decision pretty simple for the Jets. The one who’d have complicated it for New York was Washington WR Rome Odunze. When the Bears took Odunze, the pick became academic (Fautanu would’ve been one fallback plan in the unlikely event neither Fashanu or Odunze made it to 10; Georgia’s Brock Bowers would’ve been another). And once Fashanu was aboard, their attention turned to receiver.

Similarly, that call came down to a few guys. The Jets actually liked Texas’s Adonai Mitchell, but got focused on the best run-after-catch guys they could find in range of their second pick at 72. Part of the reasoning was the history of the best of those receivers—Deebo Samuel in 2019, Brandon Aiyuk in '20, Garrett Wilson in '22, and Flowers last year (Kadarius Toney in '21 was the exception, for other reasons)—in each class translating easily to the NFL game.

And that’s where Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley and Michigan’s Roman Wilson came into focus, with Corley getting the edge because, where both were wired the right way and competed, he was 30 pounds heavier and, accordingly, played with more violence. At any rate, you’ll get to weigh that one out because the Jets could’ve gotten Wilson at 72, and instead gave up the 157th pick (CB Chau Smith-Wade) to land Corley.

For now, though, the Jets are pretty happy with how all of this played out. The reality? It was going to be a lot harder to get a tackle (if it’d been Odunze at 11, the Jets probably would’ve gone with Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie at 72), along with just how much they thought of both of the guys they picked.

For all of the criticism Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane took for trading with the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round, his reasoning was logical. And, yes, I understand it—and how the idea of arming the rival Chiefs with a guy who runs like Tyreek Hill (though Texas burner Xavier Worthy isn’t really built like the ex-Kansas City star at all) might give people in Buffalo the shakes.

The optics may not be great. But the reality Beane was working with had three elements to it. One, the Bills actually had a comfort level with all three of the receivers that came off the board between 28 and 33. Two, they had a 68-slot gap in picks early in the draft, after using their third-rounder to get Rasul Douglas from the Packers in October after Tre’Davious White’s injury. Three, in the aftermath of March’s roster reset, they had a lot of holes to fill.

On the first reality, the situation was almost the reverse of last year for the Bills, when Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid stood alone on the Bills’ board, prompting a trade up. That Buffalo had Worthy, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette and Florida State’s Keon Coleman right there with each other gave Beane the flexibility to deal to address the second reality, in order to service the third reality. In deals with the Chiefs and Panthers, the Bills moved the 133rd pick to 95, slipping into that gap between 60 and 128, while moving two other picks up 27 (248 to 221) and 59 (200 to 141) slots to still land Coleman.

Beane, like the rest of the league, knew the Chiefs could take Worthy, and that the Panthers and his old pro director/new Carolina GM Dan Morgan were looking to arm Bryce Young with another weapon. So that he was left with one of the three didn’t surprise him, and that he was down to one of the three is why he resisted moving anymore, as offers for the pick came pouring in the day before the first round.

Buffalo ended up with a receiver whose biggest question was his timed speed, but who had the GPS tracking data of someone running in the 4.5s, and who was shifty enough, at 6’3”, to return punts as a collegian. Plus, combining that agility and ability to drop his weight as a bigger guy with a 38-inch vertical, the Bills thought, because he’s just 20 years old, he’d have the ceiling to get more explosive as a player (Legette, by comparison, is already 23).

One other interesting piece on Coleman was that he had the fastest gauntlet time, hitting 20.36 MPH, of any receiver at the combine, which translates to play speed.

All of which, again, isn’t to say that the Bills didn’t like Worthy or Legette. They did. But with those three in a cluster, getting one of them, while landing a third pick in the top 100 so they could come away with two players (Utah S Cole Bishop/Duke DT DeWayne Carter) on Day 2 rather than just one while improving their Day 3 standing simply made the most sense at the time.

Now, we’ll get to see if it looks that way once these guys get on the field.

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce

Kelce earned some more guaranteed money from the Chiefs in his new contract despite no more years being added.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There are two ways to look at Travis Kelce’s new contract in Kansas City. One would be that it is, indeed, a lot to pay for a tight end entering his 12th NFL season and turning 35 in October. The other would be that Kelce is one of the three bedrocks of the Chiefs dynasty, there’s value throughout your organization in rewarding that, and what a great tight end makes falls well short of what receivers, left tackles, defensive ends and corners make anyway.

Here's what you need to know on the deal …

• It’s a two-year, $34.25 million deal. It’s not an extension. Kelce had two years and $30.25 million left on his existing deal, without any guarantees. His pay for 2024, as part of the reworked contract, ticked up from $13 million to $17 million, and the Chiefs guaranteed all that money for him at signing.

• The second year remains at $17.25 million, and it’s not guaranteed yet. However, the Chiefs broke that money up, and put $11.5 million in a roster bonus that’ll be due on the third day of the 2025 league year. Which means, by mid-March, most of Kelce’s money for '25 will be locked in, creating an early decision point for the team to keep him aboard (not that it was looming as a big question).

• There are no void years on the back end to spread out the cap hit. The Chiefs, as a loose rule, try not to use that mechanism. They do restructure deals to create space (see: Mahomes, Patrick), but they’re usually pushing money into existing years on the contracts.

And, again, while $17.125 million per year is the most a tight end has ever gotten, it’s not crazy in the context of what receivers pull down. That’s what Jerry Jeudy will make with the Cleveland Browns after four mostly disappointing years with Denver. It’s less than what Christian Kirk is making in Jacksonville or Diontae Johnson made before he was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. So even if Kelce slips a little, and he did before rallying in the playoffs last year, chances are slim that this will look like a bad deal for the Chiefs.

So everyone wins on that one.

When I went back over the deal that A.J. Brown got from the Philadelphia Eagles, one thing that stood out to me was the amount of money the team has tied up in void years. Brown’s cap charges for the six years on his contract are as follows (2024 to '29)—$5.15 million, $10.91 million, $16.78 million, $20.71 million, $27.62 million, and $29.31 million. Add it together, and you get to $110.48 million, which is $53.52 million short of the $164 million that Brown is due between now and the end of '28.

The rest of those cap dollars went to void years, all $53.52 million. And void years have become an increasingly commonly used mechanism to simply spread cap hits out over a longer period of time, allowing for less pain now (and more of it later) as a team rewards its best players.

Looking at that outsized figure made me wonder how much of this the Eagles have done. I knew they’d done at least some of it. Turns out, every big Philly deal has void years: Jalen Hurts ($97.55 million), DeVonta Smith ($35.78 million), Jordan Mailata ($35.6 million), Landon Dickerson ($35.09 million), Darius Slay ($24.94 million), Dallas Goedert ($23.83 million), Lane Johnson ($22.48 million), James Bradberry ($21.39 million), Josh Sweat ($16.39 million), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($13.76 million), Brandon Graham ($10.27 million), Jake Elliott ($8.61 million) and, of course, Brown.

By my math, those 13 contracts have more than $399 million in cap dollars moved into years that void at the end of those deals—and there’s more of that on shorter-term deals such as those the Eagles gave to Devin White and Zack Baun.

That’s a staggering figure, and it explains why Philly seems to have so much flexibility each year.

So, in practical terms, what does it mean?

First and foremost, and similar to New Orleans, it shows a very real commitment from ownership to winning, because all of that money being accounted for three and four and five years from now is matched with cash going out the door during the actual life of the deal. Indeed, last year, against a $224.8 million cap, the Eagles spent $257.2 million in cash, third league-wide behind only the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens. This year, Philly is one of two teams set to spend more than $300 million in cash (Cleveland is the other one).

All told, Philly could approach $600 million in player spending over a two-year span through which the cap is at $480.6 million. Again, it’s a tribute to Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie, because a lot of owners would not be willing to do that.

Second, that money doesn’t disappear against the cap. And this is where things get interesting. Because the figures have to be accounted for, the Eagles will walk a tightrope financially in offloading players at the right time (remember, the above numbers assume you see every deal through, and savings can be had if you cut ties early), spending on the right guys and drafting well to supplement years when more dead money is taken on.

In other words, GM Howie Roseman and the front office are gambling to win now, and that they’ll get a lot of things right going forward. Because a reckoning would come for them if they don’t.

Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. stands on the stage after being selected at the 2024 NFL draft

Harrison Jr. pioneered a new way for elite nonquarterbacks to approach the pre-draft process.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Marvin Harrison Jr. was right, Caleb Williams was right, and more playing moving forward will make their decisions on the lead-up to the draft accordingly. The end result really does make this one academic. Williams went No. 1, so he couldn’t have gone any higher than he did. And you could argue the same for Harrison, since he was the first nonquarterback drafted.

Both made waves during the week of the NFL Scouting Combine for the approach they took. Williams declined to take a physical in Indianapolis on the premise that it made no sense for him to give his full medical information to 31 teams that wouldn’t have a chance to draft him. Harrison declined to work out or test there or at his pro day, with the idea being that rather than wasting time and money on training for Olympic testing, he’d be best simply preparing for rookie year.

In the end, it did no damage to either guy.

The Chicago Bears got Williams’s medicals on the 30 visit, and 31 teams that are now his rivals don’t have information that could be damaging to him or Chicago. The Arizona Cardinals, meanwhile, are ecstatic to get a player who will be ready to hit the ground running at rookie minicamp and OTAs after training with the Ohio State strength staff as he would if he were suiting up to play football for the Buckeyes in the fall.

Williams, for his part, only visited the Bears, while Harrison only visited Chicago and Arizona.

Now, here’s the other thing to remember—few players have the leverage to do what these guys did. In most cases, players need to give teams as much information as they possibly can to get those teams comfortable with the idea of drafting them. That’s a non-issue for very few.

But going forward, if you’re in the super elite class, what will you do? Probably follow the lead of Williams and Harrison, and handle the pre-draft process a la carte, only doing what is in your own personal best interest.

In the end, I’m counting 18 of 32 first-round picks from 2021 as having had their fifth-year options picked up. That’s counting guys who got extensions (DeVonta Smith, Penei Sewell) with the fifth-year option factored in (Rashod Bateman, who did a lower-end extension, doesn’t fit that description). And it’s a high number, for sure.

Last year, using the same logic (which counts Jordan Love as having had his picked up), just 13 of the 32 guys taken in the first round in 2020 qualified.

That number was by far the lowest since the rookie salary scale went into effect with the 2011 draft class. But there was a caveat to it—it was also the first year that the options were fully guaranteed upon being picked up, meaning teams couldn’t simply cut the guy a year later, so long as he was healthy.

What that tells you? The 2021 class, with players such as Trevor Lawrence, Micah Parsons and Ja’Marr Chase as headliners, was a very bumper crop of high-end players. And as such, Smith and Sewell will likely be just the first of a slew of these guys to sign blockbuster extensions before the start of their fourth seasons.

Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. holds up his jersey at a press conference.

The league is still abuzz over the Falcons' unorthodox draft strategy with the selection of Penix.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

I do have one last take on the Atlanta Falcons’ handling of the quarterback situation. And that’s that I would 100% understand if Kirk Cousins is still stinging a bit from the whole ordeal.

Here’s why—a reason he decided to leave Minnesota is because the Vikings were very up front with the 35-year-old about the possibility that, even in the case he stayed, they’d take a quarterback of the future high in the draft. Tying that together with the team’s willingness to guarantee part, but not all, of a second year on another contract, Cousins figured that, if he stayed, there was a good shot that he’d be on the move in 2025.

I know Cousins appreciated how open the Vikings were about their draft strategy, even if it meant him leaving.

So if you were him, how would you feel when that call came, as his new team was on the clock, to explain how the Falcons were taking his heir apparent, Michael Penix Jr., with the eighth pick? Now, I do understand why Atlanta felt the need to keep it quiet, and why GM Terry Fontenot’s experience in New Orleans in 2017, when the Chiefs knew the Saints coveted Patrick Mahomes and jumped ahead of them to get him, marked the decision not to tell Cousins of their plans.

Still, it had to be a crappy call to take if you were Cousins, considering the basis of the decision you’d made six weeks earlier. It remains to be seen, of course, if that’ll lead to any sort of early fissure in the player-team relationship there. I think they’ll be able to get past it, because head coach Raheem Morris is a phenomenal relationship guy, and Cousins is an adult. But if there are early bumps in the season, this one will be interesting to watch.

I still don’t get the people who are so into the Pittsburgh Steelers trading for a big-name veteran receiver. It’s never been Pittsburgh’s m.o. to do something like that at that particular position. And I can’t imagine trading Johnson is some sort of big needle-mover in this regard, either.

Pittsburgh’s drafted 19 receivers over the last 18 draft cycles. The highest pick spent in the bunch was on Chase Claypool, who went 49th in 2020. Yet, without spending more than that on the position, they’ve wound up with Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Washington, George Pickens, Johnson and Claypool, all of whom wound up producing to varying degrees for the team.

On top of that, the last time the Steelers’ leading receiver wasn’t homegrown was in the year the United States entered World War II—1941 (Don Looney, if you’re scoring at home). And over the years, Pittsburgh has been able to replace guys such as Plaxico Burress, Wallace, Sanders and Brown as they’ve left the organization.

All of this history, of course, bodes well for the 84th pick in this year’s draft, Roman Wilson.

And probably not as well for those waiting on the Steelers to take some big swing on a vet.

I need to give my thanks to everyone, all of you included, for following along through this offseason, now that things have calmed down. That goes for our editors, and our NFL writers, and, again, for all you readers.

Conor Orr and I did this sort of thank you on the MMQB podcast last week, but I’ll repeat it here.

It’s no secret that it’s been a challenging three months at Sports Illustrated. It’d have been easy for people to take their collective foot off the gas, but I’m real proud of our NFL team for refusing to let that happen. And I’m grateful to all of you that kept coming back.

Bet This, Not That: How to Wager on Caleb Williams' Early Futures Markets

Bet This, Not That: How to Wager on Caleb Williams’ Early Futures Markets

Now that the dust has settled from the NFL draft, it's time to examine some early futures markets and see where we can find value. Passing props have been released for several rookie signal-callers, giving us some insight into how Las Vegas values NFL freshmen. 

Today, we kick off a new series, "Bet This, Not That." Use these articles as a guide for being creative and finding value when placing your wagers. 

Regarding futures bets, weighing the payout vs. the time you'll tie up your bankroll is wise. Generally, I don't bet on season-long totals because that value is hard to find. But sometimes, there is a way to find value, or at least to get "hints" where you can find values in other markets. You can even use these markets as a good cheat sheet for how high to draft a player in your fantasy football drafts.

Let's look at the early futures markets for Bears QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. All odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Bears quarterback Caleb Williams at the NFL draft.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Passing Yards: Over 3500.5 (-110) | Under 3500.5 (-110)

Passing TDs: Over 23.5 (-105) | Under 23.5 (-120)

First, let's start with some recent and historical trends: 

Only 13 rookie quarterbacks have passed for more than 3,500 yards since 1970. Nine of those quarterbacks debuted in the last 10 seasons.  

In 2023, rookie C.J. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards, ranking third behind Justin Herbert (4,336) and Andrew Luck (4,374). All three passers won Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Justin Herbert's 31 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2020 remains the most of all time.

Only five rookie passers since 1970 have tossed 24+ touchdowns in their debut season, one of which was Daniel Jones. 

Based on these historical facts, Las Vegas is high on Williams according to the opening market for his season-long stats.  

The Bears have created a dream situation for the rookie signal-caller. Williams has two elite veteran wideouts in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, not to mention a solid pass-catching tight end in Cole Kmet and a pass-catching running back in D'Andre Swift. The Bears also added All-American wideout Rome Odunze out of Washington with their ninth pick in the NFL draft.   

The Bears' defense is improving, the O-line should provide ample pass protection, and new OC Shane Waldron has a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. The Heisman winner out of USC has everything going in his favor. 

However, it's also worth noting no Chicago Bears rookie has ever come close to these numbers. In fact, only two Bears quarterbacks have surpassed 3,500 passing yards: Jay Cutler (2009, 2014, 2015) and Erik Kramer (1995). No Bears QB has passed for more than 3,900 yards in the franchise's history.

So, will Caleb Williams set new standards in Chicago? With everything aligning, the Bears are certainly betting on it.

But I'm not.  

I'm fading the futures market for Williams, though I will draft him as a QB2 in my fantasy leagues. 

If you're high on Williams but want to bet for better value, consider his OROY future, which pays +200 instead. That makes him the favorite for the award, and though it may not be the best overall value for the OROY award, it's a better value than betting the over on his season-long player totals, and it has a chance to cash even if he falls short of his totals. After all, the odds for the Bears to make the playoffs are (-125). I'd rather tie up my bankroll for a chance at the plus-money payout. 

Bet This: Williams OROY (+200)

Not That: Williams over 23.5 passing touchdowns (-105)

Caleb Williams Leads Seven First-Round Rookies Set to Make Immediate Impact

Caleb Williams Leads Seven First-Round Rookies Set to Make Immediate Impact

With the 2024 NFL draft in the books, it’s time to look at which rookies from the first round will deliver dynamic seasons. 

Last year, the Houston Texans got it right by selecting quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. at No. 2 and No. 3. Stroud and Anderson won Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, respectively. The year before that, the Jets had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year with receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner.

As for a pattern between the Texans and Jets, they both had two top-10 picks. That was the case for the Chicago Bears last week, but both of their picks were on the offensive side. Will a player from Chicago win Offensive Rookie of the Year? 

Let’s examine which first-round picks will make an immediate impact. 

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears

Williams has the daunting task of ending the Bears’ lengthy drought of not having a legitimate franchise quarterback throw for 4,000 yards in a season. He has the skill set, arm strength and athleticism to quickly become a star, especially with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze as his top three receivers. If the offensive line protects Williams, the Bears’ offense could quickly become a top-10 unit in 2024.

Although Williams has the luxury of throwing to a receiving corps that could end up being one of the best in the league, he’ll need to remind himself to lean on his weapons and not play hero ball, an area that often got him in trouble at the college level due to his strength of creating plays amid chaos. If he keeps it simple his rookie year, he might be the runaway front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Odunze, the No. 9 pick, could also make an immediate impact, but it might be tough for him to get targets playing behind Allen and Moore.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals 

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. warms up before a game.

Harrison was dominant at Ohio State and will hope to continue that run alongside Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray.

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA

With how dominant Harrison was at Ohio State, adding him to this list was a no-brainer. It would not be surprising to see him make the Pro Bowl with similar numbers to what Rams receiver Puka Nacua did last season (105 catches, 1,486 yards and six TDs). Harrison will make the Cardinals better, but he’ll also benefit from having Kyler Murray as his quarterback and Drew Petzing as the offensive play-caller. The Cardinals had a terrible roster a year ago, but managed to defeat the Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.

Harrison could also have decent matchups based on how well wide receiver Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride played last season. Expect the Cardinals to take steps forward this season with Harrison leading the charge.

Joe Alt, OT, Los Angeles Chargers

Many Chargers fans weren’t pleased about the first pick in the Jim Harbaugh era being an offensive tackle instead of a wide receiver. Yes, Los Angeles needed wide receivers, which it later addressed in the draft with Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice, but protecting Justin Herbert was more important. 

The Chargers got it right by adding the massive 6'9," 321-pound Joe Alt, pairing him with Rashawn Slater and giving Herbert outstanding bookend tackles for years to come. If Alt is forced to play right tackle—Slater has been the Chargers’ left tackle since 2021—he might struggle for a few weeks, but he will likely get the hang of it in his rookie season. If he wins the left tackle job, Alt has the makings of being an All-Pro, something Slater accomplished in his ’21 rookie season.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) runs after a catch during the third quarter as Auburn defenders pursue him.

Bowers could give the Raiders a reliable rookie pass-catcher right away.

Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

Some were shocked to see the Raiders draft the best available player at No. 13 instead of addressing needs at cornerback or the offensive line. With the top five quarterbacks off the board, new Raiders GM Tom Telesco made the right decision by taking Brock Bowers, who might have been a top-10 pick had he played wide receiver instead of tight end.

Many were too caught up in the position Bowers plays and overlooked his gifts as a versatile pass catcher. He’ll likely gain many yards up the seam for veteran quarterback Gardner Minshew. Look for Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to use Bowers all over the field. 

Taliese Fuaga, OT, New Orleans Saints

Fuaga is the ideal body guard for Derek Carr due to his toughness in the trenches and high-level run blocking skills. He’ll likely be a plug-and-play starter at right tackle and could end up having a similar rookie season to Penei Sewell and Tristan Wirfs from a few years back. 

The Saints aren’t receiving enough credit for this pick because they have issues at left tackle and Fuaga primarily played at right tackle at Oregon State. But he does provide versatility as a player who can play on the inside, and maybe his polished skills and strength could one day make him a quality left tackle. But for now, the Saints shouldn’t overthink it and play Fuaga at his best position. 

Jared Verse, Edge, Los Angeles Rams

Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Jared Verse (5) pressures Florida Gators quarterback Max Brown.

Verse is a versatile edge rusher that could help bring the Rams defense into the post-Aaron Donald era.

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY

Not many viewed Verse as the top edge rusher in the draft, but he was often sandwiched between Laiatu Latu and Dallas Turner as the No. 2 player at the position. Some rated Latu No. 1 because of his upside, but he also has injury concerns. Others ranked Turner No. 1 because of his polished skills, but pointed out his lack of size and strength. 

As for Verse, he might provide the most versatility with his blend of speed and power. And after what the Rams did with their rookies last season, Verse could be in an ideal situation to become an immediate impact player. He’ll play next to last year’s rookie sensations, Byron Young and Kobie Turner, on the Rams’ revamped defensive front, which also includes Verse’s Florida State teammate, Braden Fiske. The Rams could soon have a dominant defensive front in the post-Aaron Donald era. 

Terrion Arnold, CB, Detroit Lions

Arnold could end up being the steal of the draft after falling to No. 24. He will likely win a starting job as an outside corner because of his athleticism and exceptional skills in man-to-man coverage. He also will have plenty of help playing alongside veteran Carlton Davis III and slot cornerback Brian Branch, the Lions’ impressive rookie from last season.

Arnold lacks size at 6'0," 196 pounds, but his polished skills in coverage and nose for the ball will likely allow him to make an immediate impact. Don’t be surprised if he quickly gains the respect and trust of his teammates with how impressive he was in team and media interviews during the lead-up to the draft.

Bears GM Ryan Poles Drafted a Punter to Make Opponents Uncomfortable

Bears GM Ryan Poles Drafted a Punter to Make Opponents Uncomfortable

Bears general manager Ryan Poles appeared on The Pat McAfee Show on Wednesday to break down the team's draft picks. After selecting Caleb Williams first, Rome Odunze ninth and offensive lineman Kiran Amegadjie in the third round, the Bears picked Iowa punter Tory Taylor in the fourth.

McAfee was excited to hear what Poles had to say about the All-American Ray Guy Award winner and for good reason. Poles clearly feels like the Bears picked up a legitimate weapon in Taylor and feels like he's the kind of player who will make opposing teams "uncomfortable."

“I didn’t expect him to get much further. Definitely didn’t think I’d be able to pick him up when we got to the fifth round,” Poles said. “And, really, the thought process there is to make anyone we’re playing really uncomfortable. I didn’t play much in the NFL but I know running onto the field and having the ball spotted inside the 10-yard line is a very uncomfortable feeling. It’s disheartening at times. And I love taking advantage of field position. And, really, that should help us with points as well. So I think he's going to add to our team and again make it uncomfortable for any team we're going against."

Contrast that with Caleb Williams' intial text message to his new teammate: "hey you're not going to punt too much here." That's the thing about punters. It's nice to have a good one, but no one actually ever wants to see them play because that means a drive stalled.

That's the beauty of football. It's eleven different players doing very different jobs in concert on every single play. They say it takes a village to raise a child, but it takes almost as many to win a football game. If Taylor doesn't get much action this season, it would seem this was a wasted pick, but if he does see a lot of playing time, that's not a great sign for the Bears top pick either. Hopefully, the Bears can find a happy medium or Poles will end up being the one who feels uncomfortable.

Ranking the 2024 NFC Draft Classes: The Impact of the Michael Penix Jr. Pick

Ranking the 2024 NFC Draft Classes: The Impact of the Michael Penix Jr. Pick

Many were ready to pencil in the Atlanta Falcons as the NFC South winners for their 2024 NFL playoff predictions. That might have changed after the Falcons made their stunning selection of Michael Penix Jr. in the 2024 NFL draft.

The signal-caller out of Washington should help the Falcons in the future, but he didn’t make them better in the present, allowing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to close the gap on the talented Falcons, who added immediate impact players with their first-round selections.

Kirk Cousins, who was signed in free agency to a four-year, $180 million deal, was left scratching his head at the Falcons’ first-round pick. But a few other teams in the NFC also made questionable moves during last week’s three-day draft as well. 

Let’s examine how each NFC team did in the 2024 draft by ranking them from 16 to 1. Don’t expect a surprise for No. 16 …

16. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons used the No. 8 pick on Penix, who’s ready to start now after six years of college experience, including guiding Washington to the national title game. Instead of Penix following in the paths of Russell Wilson and Brock Purdy starting as rookies, he will have to wait his turn for a year or two, maybe three. And let’s not forget that Cousins’s contract includes guarantees of $90 million in the first two years with a $10 million option in Year 3.

The Falcons didn’t want to wait on a quarterback-succession plan, opting for what the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers did with Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love despite not having a deep roster as those teams did. The Falcons, who haven’t made the postseason since 2017, dismissed the present for the future and passed on adding an immediate contributor with their first-round pick. Now the pressure is on second-round defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro and third-round edge rusher Bralen Trice to produce right away. 

15. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Byron Murphy II

Murphy gives the Seahawks three stout defensive tackles.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Seahawks deserve credit for adding defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, even though they have committed plenty of money to Leonard Williams and Dre’Mont Jones. Murphy fits the scheme of new coach Mike Macdonald, but now the Seahawks have a dilemma with a log jam at the position. Murphy will likely receive starter’s snaps because he excels at stopping the run, a weakness of the Seahawks the past few seasons. 

Without a second-round pick, the rest of the Seahawks’ draft class seems a bit underwhelming. But the Seahawks have plenty of talent throughout the roster. Perhaps all they need for a bounce-back season is for Macdonald to get the star-studded defense on the same page, which became easier with the selection of Murphy.  

14. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers might have prioritized need more than taking the best player available when it came to adding a wide receiver. They found their physical outside receiver, selecting 6'3," 227-pound Xavier Legette with the last pick in the first round. Carolina took Legette over Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman and Adonai Mitchell. Time will tell if the Panthers selected the right receiver for Bryce Young and new coach Dave Canales.

Taking the best running back prospect in Jonathon Brooks should give Carolina a balanced attack after a dismal ground game in 2023. Overall, the Panthers added help for Young and found a way to gain a first-round pick.

13. Dallas Cowboys

Judging from the social media criticism, the Cowboys’ draft class likely received a low grade from most football pundits. But it wasn’t as bad as many made it seem because they prioritized the offensive line. Sure, the Cowboys haven’t made it to a conference title game this millennium, but they became perennial playoff contenders because they rarely neglected the trenches, drafting Zack Martin and Tyler Smith. They quickly found their Tyron Smith replacement with the first-round selection of Tyler Guyton, a left tackle with plenty of upside. 

Dallas also continued loading up on edge rushers, adding Marshawn Kneeland in the second round to fill the void of Dorance Armstrong, who left in free agency to join the Washington Commanders. It’s never a bad draft strategy to add offensive and defensive linemen. But the Cowboys failed to address their needs at running back and inside linebacker. They also could have used another receiver to go with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.  

12. New York Giants

New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers

Nabers has the makings of the next Odell Beckham Jr. or Ja'Marr Chase

SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA

Perhaps the Giants should be ranked lower than 12th on this list, but they landed standout wideout Malik Nabers with their No. 6 pick. Nabers has the makings of the next Odell Beckham Jr. or Ja’Marr Chase. Nabers’s explosiveness will expand the playbook for coach Brian Daboll, making him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. 

Daniel Jones gets another shot to prove himself with a dangerous downfield threat in Nabers—unless you’re buying the hype of Drew Lock possibly taking Jones’s job this summer. But the Giants likely know by now that Jones won’t ever reach elite QB status in the NFL. They had an opportunity to move up from No. 6 to third to select Drake Maye, but couldn’t come to a trade agreement with the New England Patriots. 

11. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers passed on wide receivers who had more hype from the draft experts to select Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick. San Francisco deserves the benefit of the doubt because Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk weren’t high-profile prospects when the team selected them. The 49ers might be forced to decide between Samuel and Aiyuk because they have drafted so well in recent years and don’t have enough cap space to keep all of their star players.

San Francisco gave itself flexibility with the Samuel-Aiyuk dilemma by adding Pearsall, who should be ready to slide in as a starter if Samuel or Aiyuk leave during the 2025 offseason. The best teams create options and plan ahead.

10. Minnesota Vikings

If J.J. McCarthy was the target all along, the Vikings played this well by only trading up one spot to get him at No. 10 instead of moving into the top five to select the Michigan quarterback. But Minnesota took a risk by banking on the fifth quarterback taken in the draft. As history has shown, it’s rare when five quarterbacks from one draft class develop into legitimate franchise signal-callers. 

The Vikings tried to trade three first-round picks to the Patriots for the right to draft Maye, who likely has the best skill set among all of the QB prospects. McCarthy's ceiling might not be as high as the others, but he proved at Michigan he can run an efficient offense and will now get to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. By not getting desperate for a quarterback, the Vikings also added Dallas Turner at No. 17 to pair with free-agent signing Jonathan Greenard.  

9. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers offensive tackle Jordan Morgan

Morgan could compete for the starting left tackle job for the Packers.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Packers failed to add a top offensive tackle in last year’s draft, but they didn’t make that same mistake again, one they couldn’t afford because of the departure of David Bakhtiari. Jordan Morgan, the 25th pick, could compete for the left tackle job against Rasheed Walker, who filled in admirably for the injured Bakhtiari in 2023.

Morgan also has the flexibility to play guard, which could explain why the Packers chose him over Guyton, the Cowboys’ first-round pick. In the second round, the Packers took the first off-ball linebacker with Edgerrin Cooper. Perhaps the Texas A&M product could flourish as an immediate starter. Green Bay has invested plenty of draft picks in recent years on defensive players, but hasn’t received many positive returns. 

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Canales now calling the plays for Young, the Buccaneers needed to find another way to make life easier for Baker Mayfield, who received a lucrative contract extension after a career year with Canales as the offensive play-caller in Tampa Bay. They did that by drafting center Graham Barton with the No. 26 pick. On paper, the Bucs’ offensive line has come a long way since 2022, when the unit failed to protect Tom Brady during his final season. 

With a stout offensive line, Mayfield is well positioned to prove his 2023 season was no fluke. Coach Todd Bowles’s defense got better with second-round selection Chris Braswell, who will join last year’s standout rookie edge rusher Yaya Diaby. 

7. New Orleans Saints

The Saints had a sensational start to the draft, selecting offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry in the first and second rounds, respectively. New Orleans had concerns at tackle with Ryan Ramczyk’s injury issues and Trevor Penning’s struggles on the field. Now they have less problems with the arrival of Fuaga, arguably the best run blocker in the draft. 

Fuaga probably will start at right tackle, but he would fix more problems if he’s able to play left tackle. The Penning experience hasn’t worked out and it might be better for New Orleans to move him as a backup tackle. As for McKinstry, it won’t be easy for him to earn a starting job, but he adds youth to a veteran-filled defense. The Saints need more draft picks to become cornerstone pieces to finally gain cap-space flexibility.  

6. Arizona Cardinals 

Arizona Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison has drawn comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald Jr. and A.J. Green.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinals didn’t overthink it and took Marvin Harrison Jr., possibly the best prospect in the draft. Yes, the Cardinals have many needs and would have benefited from the extra picks had they traded out of the No. 4 spot. But you don’t pass on a wide receiver prospect as good as Harrison, who has drawn comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald Jr. and A.J. Green. 

Kyler Murray will benefit from Harrison’s presence, as will offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who had impressive game plans in 2023 despite a poor roster. After taking the dominant Harrison, the Cardinals added Darius Robinson, who could be Arizona's best pass rusher this upcoming season. He’ll join a defensive unit lacking talent outside of safety Budda Baker. 

5. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams filled defensive needs with two standout prospects. First, they took edge rusher Jared Verse to pair him with Byron Young, last year’s rookie standout. They followed that by moving up from No. 52 to 39 to select defensive tackle Braden Fiske, who impressed many at the Senior Bowl.

Fiske will have the pressure of filling the massive void left by the retirement of Aaron Donald, but he won’t have to do it alone because the Rams planned ahead. Last year, they drafted Young and defensive tackle Kobie Turner, who became a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. L.A. lost a legend in Donald, but now have four intriguing players on the defensive line. Also, the Rams were wise to select running back Blake Corum in the third round. He has a similar skill set to last year’s breakout star Kyren Williams. They should form a dominant duo, and Corum could help as a starter in case Williams deals with injuries again. 

4. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles neglected the secondary last offseason and it cost them during their end-of-season collapse. The secondary should be much improved after Philadelphia added cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and defensive back Cooper DeJean. Mitchell could soon take over as the team’s No. 1 outside cornerback because of his elite traits and athleticism. DeJean will probably flourish in Vic Fangio’s scheme because he can play cornerback and safety. 

And it wouldn’t be a Howie Roseman draft without him taking at least one edge rusher. Third-round pick Jalyx Hunt has plenty of upside and could quickly find a rotational role behind Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff. 

3. Detroit Lions

Similar to the Eagles, the Lions addressed their secondary needs with a pair of first-round defensive backs. Detroit gets the nod over Philadelphia because Terrion Arnold might be one of the safest picks in the draft. He’s a polished technician with a similar skill set to Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon. Arnold going at No. 24 could end up being the steal of the draft. 

The Lions didn’t settle at cornerback and took Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in the second round. The Lions swung and missed on cornerback Cameron Sutton, who was released recently after being a top free-agent addition in 2023. Arnold should be a Day 1 starter, joining last year’s rookie sensation Brian Branch and veteran newcomer Carlton Davis III. It likely won’t take Rakestraw long to crack the cornerback rotation in Detroit. 

2. Washington Commanders

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels

Daniels gives the Commanders a chance at long-term success.

Matthew Dobbins-USA TODAY Sports

Jayden Daniels is set up for long-term success after all of the savvy moves Washington has made in its first offseason with a new owner, GM and head coach. 

Daniels received a talented tight end in Ben Sinnott, a second-round pick. Daniels also might have the luxury of playing with a much-improved defense. The Commanders’ first pick in the second round was defensive tackle Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, who was viewed by many as a first-round prospect. The Commanders’ second second-round pick was cornerback Mike Sainristil. Coach Dan Quinn now has enough talent to turn the Washington defense from one of the worst to a respectable unit in 2024.

1. Chicago Bears

The Bears could have two Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates after using their two top-10 picks on Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. On paper, GM Ryan Poles executed one of the best trades in recent years after flipping last year’s No. 1 pick to the Panthers for wide receiver DJ Moore and many draft picks, including two that turned into offensive tackle Darnell Wright and Williams.

But this trade won’t be remembered positively for years to come without Williams turning into an elite quarterback. The pressure is on the USC product, but the Bears have built an ideal surrounding for the top pick, with the trade for Keenan Allen and selection of Odunze, the savvy route router who can create plays on the outside and in the slot. Start the Bears’ hype train because they might be fun to watch with their two top-10 picks.   

What to Expect from Bears QB Caleb Williams in Year 1

What to Expect from Bears QB Caleb Williams in Year 1

The 2024 NFL draft is done, and it’s time to dive in and answer a few questions about it …

From David Kromelow (@dkrom59): What are realistic expectations for Caleb Williams (individually speaking) and the Bears in general this season? And do you anticipate Bo Nix starting over or under 10 games for the Broncos this year?

 

Alright, Davis, so on the first question, I’d say 3,700 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions would be a reasonable stat line for Williams in Year 1. I do think the team has a chance to be good and, just as important, positioned to help fuel the quarterback’s development.

With a deep crew of backs (D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert) and a rugged offensive line, the Chicago Bears should have the ability to keep Williams out of the long-yardage situations that kill young quarterbacks. And with a fast-improving team, and a defense coming around at the end of last year, he shouldn’t be playing from behind quite as much as quarterbacks drafted that high usually do. Having Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze won’t hurt, either.

So, yeah, I think that team can win nine or 10 games just with solid play from Williams.

As for Nix, I do think Sean Payton’s going to get him out there. One thing I know Payton loved about Nix was his experience. Between Auburn and Oregon, Nix started an NCAA record 61 games. Generally, quarterbacks who played a lot in college (see: Purdy, Brock) translate faster to the NFL. Which should make it a little easier on Payton to play Nix, and get him NFL game reps now rather than later.

Buffalo Bill receiver Keon Coleman

The Bills drafted Coleman in the second round after trading back with the Chiefs.

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

From d_iggs17 (@d_iggs17): Was Keon Coleman the Bills’ guy all along or did they have another receiver in mind?

Diggs, let’s look at this logically. The Buffalo Bills did the trade with the rival Kansas City Chiefs, moving down from 28 to 32, knowing what the rest of the NFL did last week—that Texas burner Xavier Worthy was a great fit for Kansas City. So if the Bills loved Worthy, they wouldn't have done that. With full acknowledgement that the San Francisco 49ers are really good, and often outside the box on receiver assessments, it’s fair to say few teams had Florida’s Ricky Pearsall going 31st. And they dealt with ex-Bills exec Dan Morgan in trading down from 32 to 33.

Put the pieces together, and it’s easy to think that the Bills had an inkling that Worthy and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette were going in the spots they traded out of, and were surprised to see Pearsall go where he did. And maybe they moved out of 28 when the hope that LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. would slip to them died.

So let’s say, in a great receiver year, they had Coleman as their fifth guy, behind Thomas, his LSU teammate Malik Nabers, Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. and Washington’s Rome Odunze. I’d say to get that guy—some scouts assessed him as a prospect in the Harrison–Nabers–Odunze class in the fall—in the second round is pretty good value, especially when it resulted in improving three later picks in pick swaps as part of trades.

 

From Chandler (@_chandler_____): What do the Chiefs do with their excess cap space?

 

Chandler, their cap space is a moving target because of the restructures of Patrick Mahomes’s contract. They pushed more than $21 million into the future, and that eventually has to be accounted for.

To simplify it, let’s say you have $200 to spend on your team today, and $220 to spend on it tomorrow. So on one player, you push $20 off to tomorrow. Now, on paper, it may look great that you have that extra $20 today. But you’ll still have to account for it tomorrow. So if you have the choice, with your team built, to take $20 off the top today to add to what you can spend tomorrow, would you do it? You probably would.

So that’s my convoluted way of saying the Chiefs probably take the money and roll it over. One thing that’s interesting, too, is that with Travis Kelce’s new deal—which essentially added $4 million this year, guaranteed his money, and added an early vesting date for next year’s guarantees—there are no void years. I’d look for the Chiefs to do more deals that way, to make it so Mahomes’s deal is the only one pushing money forward, which will allow them to build in a more sustainable way.

 

New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler

Most NFL scouts had Rattler projected as a fourth-round pick.

Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

From Tyler (@BigTyTheMemeGuy): How big of a shot does Spencer Rattler have at becoming the Saints’ starting QB after Derek Carr?

 

Tyler, I’m just going to use the space you gave me to say something else on Rattler here: The only reason anything involving Rattler (like my buddy Ian Rapoport’s Netflix note during the final day of the draft) is a big deal is because three springs ago people were projecting him to be something he wasn’t.

In the Netflix documentary, “QB1: Beyond the Lights,” Rattler was a senior at Pinnacle High School, and the conversations showed him criticizing his teammates, which did not make him look great and impacted his draft stock.

You know all those way-too-early mock drafts? Absent an obvious top-end prospect coming into the 2022 class, a lot of folks projected Rattler, then Oklahoma’s starter, to go in the top five. Some had him first, based largely on Rattler’s recruiting ranking, some promise after his first year with the Sooners, and Lincoln Riley’s previous three starters at OU all going in the top 50 picks, with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray drafted first in consecutive drafts.

So what Rapoport reported during the draft had followed Rattler through his benching for Caleb Williams at OU and over to South Carolina, where he played in 2022 and ’23.

The truth is most NFL people would have told you before the draft he was going in the fourth round or so, and he went a round later. He also was picked 23 slots behind where the Saints took Jake Haener last year. So to answer your question, it’s not likely he’ll replace Carr.

 

New York Giants quarterback Drew Lock

It's not likely that Lock beats out Jones for the starting job with the Giants.

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

From Bobby Spence (@postcrabcore): Drew Lock competing for QB1?

 

Bobby, if you mean getting first-team reps with Daniel Jones in New York Giants training camp, then I think the answer is no. But the Seahawks really liked the progress they saw from Lock over the two years he spent there, enough to where maybe you could close your eyes and envision his story playing out like the guy that beat him out, Geno Smith, in Seattle.

And because Jones is coming off an ACL tear, and won’t be back on the practice field, there’s an opening here. While you can only show so much in the spring, the fact that the New York Giants didn’t draft a quarterback will afford Lock starter reps through all the noncontact practices in May and June. If he makes an impression, and Jones stumbles in training camp, could things turn at some point in August?

I wouldn’t bet on that happening, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

 

San Francisco 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel

Samuel could be the odd man out in San Francisco.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

From Joe Douglas SZN (@F---AdamGase): Do you think Deebo or Aiyuk gets traded? If yes, which teams could be in play?

 

Joe, a couple of months ago, I thought Brandon Aiyuk could be the odd man out in the San Francisco 49ers’ bottleneck of big contracts. My logic matched the logic the 49ers used in dealing All-Pro DeForest Buckner four years ago—when they chose a guy who had massive value to other teams, and played a position where the team had a surplus of talent.

I’ve now changed my thinking. If there’s a guy that could get moved, it’s probably Deebo Samuel, with San Francisco looking to get an extension for Aiyuk done, the team’s best pure receiver. Samuel, a great player, may be seen as more of a luxury to have at this point, especially with another do-everything type in Christian McCaffrey (who may look for a pay bump of his own this summer).

Samuel’s also under contract, and has a lot of mileage on his legs, which is the reality of playing him the way the 49ers do, as a receiver and as a running back.

As for fits for Samuel, I think you’d look at some of the usual suspects in that coaching tree. San Francisco won’t trade him to the Los Angeles Rams, and I can’t imagine they’d send him to the Green Bay Packers, either. The Atlanta Falcons, with OC Zac Robinson, might make some sense. The New York Jets could, too, as a piece for the receiver group, and for some depth behind Breece Hall at tailback. And a reunion with Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins could be fun.

Speaking of that …

Miami Dolphins running back Jaylen Wright

The Dolphins added more speed to their offense with Wright, a fourth-round pick.

Matt Stone/Louisville Courier Journal /

From Tua Messivailoa (@TuasRevenge): Are the Miami Dolphins assembling the fastest team of all time?

 

Tua, yes, they appear to be doing just that. And I’m assuming you’re referencing fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright, a tailback out of Tennessee who averaged 7.4 yards per carry over three years in Knoxville, then blazed a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at the combine.

The disconnect, of course, is that he only averaged 11 carries per game, and the home-run hitter element he brought to the Tennessee backfield was mixed with inconsistency as an inside runner and as a receiver. Last year’s rookie dynamo in Miami, De’Von Achane, by comparison, and who’s more than 20 pounds lighter, averaged nearly 20 carries per game in his final season at Texas A&M.

So it’ll be interesting seeing how McDaniel and the coaches add Wright to the mix with a huddle that’s already stocked with legitimate speed in Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. My guess would be McDaniel will find a way to get some big plays from him, and make an already headache-inducing offense even more of a nightmare for defenses.

Georgia pass rusher Mykel Williams

Williams could be a top pass-rushing prospect in the 2025 NFL draft.

Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY

From Glen Phelps (@PhelpsGlen62041): Very preliminary, but what appear to be the strengths of the 2025 draft?

 

Glen, just scanning some lists, but it sure looks like there are a lot of high-end pass-rushing prospects in the group—Georgia’s Mykel Williams, LSU’s Harold Perkins, Ohio State’s J.T. Tuimoloau along with transfers such as Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton and Ole Miss’ Princely Umanmielen. So it sure looks like there’s a good group that could be part of the early draft conversation.

The other thing I see is another good year at offensive tackle with LSU’s Will Campbell and Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. in that mix.

 

From Strickly Speakin’ (@SpiderStrick): Do you foresee any more tweaking to the Commanders’ front office now that we’ve reached the time of year those things tend to happen?

 

Probably not a lot, Speakin’. Just looking at the landscape, the decision to retain Martin Mayhew was a big one for GM Adam Peters, given Mayhew’s experience in two different places as a GM, and the experience the two had together in San Francisco (and the fact that he was willing to take a step back from the GM role and stay in Washington says a lot about Mahew). Also, Peters already brought Lance Newmark over from Detroit to be his assistant GM.

So I think anything that happens on the scouting side would qualify as tweaking. What’s more likely is the Commanders adding to the staff for analytics chief Eugene Shen.

 

From Don Ridenour & CEO of Klutch Sports Rich Paul (@DonRidenour): Besides Marvin Harrison Jr, what team got the best value for a player from Ohio State?

 

Houston Texans tight end Cade Stover

Stover was a reliable target for C.J. Stroud in 2022.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

With a nod to Tommy “Two Hands” Eichenberg going to the Las Vegas Raiders, give me Cade Stover to the Houston Texans. The third-rounder is still just learning to be a tight end, and was a reliable target for C.J. Stroud in 2022. He’s tough as nails, a bull in the open field, and reliable.

I’d bet on him developing, and becoming a more polished route runner, working with a really good offensive staff and his old quarterback.