Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 1 (Can Boston Cover?)

Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Expert Prediction and Odds for NBA Finals Game 1 (Can Boston Cover?)

After a week off, the NBA returns for the Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics matchup in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. 

Boston – the favorite in the series – comes into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite after Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and company rolled through the Eastern Conference, going 12-2 to reach the Finals.

The Mavericks have been a little more battle-tested, but they flexed their muscle in the Western Conference Finals to close the Minnesota Timberwolves out in five games behind four games of 32 points or more from Luka Doncic. 

Dallas has struggled in Game 1s in the Jason Kidd era, going 1-5 straight up, but 6.5 points is quite the spread for an opening game in the Finals. Can Boston, who had the No. 1 net rating in the regular season – and so far in the playoffs – show why it’s the favorite on Thursday?

Here’s our full betting preview with the latest odds, key players to watch and a best bet for Game 1: 

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Mavericks Injury Report

Celtics Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic: The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games. Luka really came on in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in all four of Dallas’ wins, and he is going to be the main focus for Boston’s defense in Game 1. 

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum: Jayson Tatum has not shot the ball well in the postseason – 44.2 percent from the field, 29.0 percent from 3 – but he’s made an impact elsewhere averaging over 10 rebounds and five assists per game. Tatum didn’t play his best in his first NBA Finals appearance in 2022, but the Celtics star has a better team around him – and that experience to lean on – in this series. 

Boston deserves a little more respect for its run to the Finals, even if it faced a few banged-up teams along the way.

The C’s needed just 14 games to get through the East, winning in blowouts against Miami and Cleveland as well as taking three games against the Indiana Pacers where the Pacers had a 90 percent win probability or higher in the fourth quarter of three of the four games. 

An interesting trend for Game 1 of the NBA Finals surfaced this week, showing that since 2005, the favorite is 16-3 ATS in Game 1. 

I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.

I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points. 

I’m worried about Dallas’ role players and whether or not they’ll make enough shots for key defenders like Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington to stay on the floor for the majority of the game. Boston, on the other hand, is going to be even deeper with Kristaps Porzingis likely back in action. 

I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1. 

Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jaylen Brown, Mavericks-Celtics Game 1)

Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jaylen Brown, Mavericks-Celtics Game 1)

At long last, the NBA Finals are just a day away, and I’m ready to lock in three plays for Game 1 – all of which end up being on the Boston side. 

Earlier this week, I made my official prediction for this series (Boston Celtics in 6), and like many NBA fans, I’m ready for this series between Boston and the Dallas Mavericks to start. 

This season, I’ve bet on the NBA every day that there have been games, and while we’re not positive on the year at the moment, a Celtics preseason future could get us there – depending upon how these Finals go. 

We’re starting strong in Game 1 with three plays – two props and one side – with Boston entering the game as a 6.5-point favorite.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jaylen Brown OVER 22.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jaylen Brown has been terrific in the playoffs, averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range.

Brown has been much more efficient than Jayson Tatum, and he finds himself with a points prop that is four points lower than his co-star in Game 1. 

I love the OVER here for Brown, who has cleared 22.5 points in nine of his 14 playoff games, including all four of his matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals.

While the return of Kristaps Porzingis could eat into Brown’s usage, I don’t expect KP to return to his normal role in his first game back from a calf injury. Brown has played a ton of minutes, clearing 40 in three of his last five games, and he’s taken at least 17 shots in 11 of 14 games this postseason. 

JB has some serious value at this number ahead of Game 1. 

Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit

Jrue Holiday may not win an ECF MVP or Finals MVP, but he has been a massive difference maker in his first season in Boston.

Holiday’s defensive prowess makes him a staple in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation, and dating back to the second round he’s really stuffed the stat sheet overall. 

Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game over his last seven games, clearing 22.5 PRA in six of those contests. 

I imagine Holiday will draw the assignment on either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, and he should play heavy minutes in Game 1. Betting on Boston props is a little volatile since we don’t know Porzingis’ usage, but this number has dropped significantly for Holiday compared to the 25.5 and 26.5’s that we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals. 

The only NBA champion on the Boston roster should continue his strong play in Game 1. 

Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit

This week, it has felt like the trendy pick is to take the points with Dallas, who had a tougher road to the NBA Finals.

I’m going the other way. 

An interesting trend for Game 1 of the NBA Finals surfaced this week, showing that since 2005, the favorite is 16-3 ATS in Game 1. 

I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.

I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points. 

Boston – the best team in the NBA all season long – has been disrespected in my eyes entering this series. It went 12-2 on its run to the Finals and easily posted the best net rating of any team in the playoffs. 

I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s Relationship Is Fine, but Their Pairing Could Elevate With a Title

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s Relationship Is Fine, but Their Pairing Could Elevate With a Title

There are no issues between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Pressure? Well … 

Last week, the four-letter network made waves by reigniting a long-dormant debate about Tatum and Brown’s relationship. Only there is no debate. Tatum and Brown are fine. Always have been. They have known each other since high school, when they competed at an Under Armour camp. They are, as Brown noted last week, “polar opposites.” But whenever the trade rumors swirled around Brown over the years, Tatum has backed him. When Tatum won a gold medal at the 2021 Olympics, Brown celebrated with him. In ’22, while reporting a Sports Illustrated cover story on the Boston Celtics, I asked Tatum’s longtime trainer, Drew Hanlen, if he had any thoughts on the Tatum-Brown relationship.

“Jayson brags about how good Jaylen is,” Hanlen told me. “How there aren’t many players he would trade straight up for him. Any narrative that they didn’t like each other, that they can’t win together is totally made up.”

Indeed, they can win together. Boston has made six conference finals in the Tatum-Brown era. Two NBA Finals. Four seasons of 50-plus wins. In a league that covets elite two-way wings, the Celtics have a pair of them.

Still, Boston’s duo has reached a critical juncture. The 2022 Finals defeat was disappointing. But, in a way, excusable. The Golden State Warriors were elite. They had championship-level talent and years of experience with it. Did the Celtics gag away a potential 3–1 series lead in Game 4? Maybe. More accurate would be Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the Warriors went out and took it. 

“This time, this go-around is a lot different,” Tatum said. “You don’t always get a second chance, so really just looking at it as a second chance and trying to simplify things as much as we can.”

Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals.Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals.

Curry shoots the ball against Tatum and Brown during Game 5 of the 2022 NBA Finals. / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Added Al Horford, “The first time [in 2022], it felt like a roller coaster, just a lot going on, increased coverage in media, all the responsibilities we had and everything that came with it. This time around, we all have an understanding. We know what things are like and I feel like we’ll be able to manage it better.”

This year, there are no Warriors. The Dallas Mavericks are good. They have Luka Doncic, a superstar. Kyrie Irving, a premiere wingman. P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II and Derrick Jones Jr. can play. The defense has improved considerably since midseason acquisitions to acquire Washington and Daniel Gafford. While the Celtics were cruising through the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers, the Mavericks were muscling out the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Still, the Celtics are heavy favorites. They are six deep with All-Star–level talent. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are elite defenders. Kristaps Porzingis, who appears to be tracking toward a Game 1 return, is a terror on both ends of the floor. Horford, who celebrated his 38th birthday on Monday, is ageless.

And they have Tatum and Brown. This has not been a flawless postseason run. There have been some clunkers. Tatum’s 7-for-17 performance in a Game 2 loss to Cleveland. Brown’s 0-for-6 three-point stat line in the same game. But the Celtics are 12–2 in the playoffs, with Tatum (26.0 points on 44.2% shooting) and Brown (25.0 points, 54.1% shooting) leading the way. 

Now, though, comes the real test. The scrutiny of Tatum and Brown’s relationship is unfair. “The whole thing about that really pisses me off,” coach Joe Mazzulla said. Raising expectations for their play is not. Curry and Thompson won’t be remembered for conference championships. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray aren’t defined by 50-win seasons. If Tatum and Brown want to be regarded as an elite duo, they need to win a title.

For years, Tatum has been among the NBA’s most scrutinized stars. He’s a great scorer … just not always in the clutch. He’s a strong defender … just not one of the best. Even as Tatum’s game has grown—in the post, at the rim, in his playmaking—he’s often viewed as a cut below the NBA’s best.   

Brown, too. Brown signed the richest contract in NBA history last summer. He responded with a season (23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, a career-best 3.6 assists) worthy of it. In Boston, Brown will always be the second star. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be one of the best wings in the game. 

Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals.Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals.

Mazzulla and Brown understand the magnitude of what is at stake in the 2024 Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

“As long as my team knows my value, my city knows my value, my family, that’s all I really care about,” Brown said. “But I like to set my hat on just being a versatile two-way wing [who] can do both at any point in time.”

Tatum and Brown understand the stakes. A series win springboards them into rarified air, a tandem with a title, and a chance to win more. A loss opens them up for criticism and more questions about whether the pairing really works. 

“I think [it’s unfair] being compared to each other,” Mazzulla said. “They’re different. And you see other duos around the league don’t have to go through that. And it’s because of the platform that they have. It’s because they’ve been so successful their entire careers. They’ve been able to long stand success at a high level.”

Now it’s time to do it at the highest. Two years ago, in the immediate aftermath of a Game 6 loss, Tatum slumped in his locker. In TD Garden, the visiting locker room is directly across from the home one, making the roar of the Warriors’ celebration unavoidable. Walking to his car that night, Tatum could hear the Champagne-soaked afterparty still raging. He vowed never to forget that feeling. He swore he would never let an opportunity like that slip away again. Two years later, Tatum, still alongside Brown, will get that chance.

Luka Dončić Denies Kristaps Porizingis Feud After Chandler Parsons's Claim

Luka Dončić Denies Kristaps Porizingis Feud After Chandler Parsons’s Claim

The reunion between Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics won't be the only meeting of a player with their former team during the 2024 NBA Finals. Kristaps Porzingis will also be up against his old squad, having played for the Dallas Mavericks back from 2019 to '21.

On Monday, Fanduel's Chandler Parsons suggested there was some bad blood between Porzingis and Luka Dončić stemming from their time as a tandem in Dallas.

Dončić addressed the claims from Parsons on Tuesday, indicating he and Porzingis have a good relationship, despite their on-court efforts not yielding much success, and added that he's scarcely ever even spoken to Parsons.

"I've talked to Chandler Parsons maybe twice in my life, so I don't know how he would know... But me and KP have a good relationship," said Dončić, via Joey Mistretta of ClutchPoints.

Porzingis joined the Mavs and was paired alongside Dončić with the goal of making an elite offensive tandem. Expectations were not quite met, however, and the plug was pulled on the experiment after a little more than two seasons.

They've both since gone on to find success, with Porzingis playing a vital role for the Celtics as they earned the league's best record in the regular season and Dončić emerging as arguably the sport's best player and leading his Mavericks to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2011.

Porzingis was also asked about the situation with Dončić in Dallas, though he didn't want to spend too much time on the topic.

"It didn't work out. I think it was–yeah. I don't know, I'm not even thinking about that right now. I'm focused on the job ahead. We can talk about that later," said Porzingis, via Noa Dalzell of SB Nation.

Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off on Thursday, June 8 at 8:30 p.m. EST from the TD Garden in Boston.

Kyrie Irving Says He's Grown Since Last Playoff Matchup Against Celtics

Kyrie Irving Says He’s Grown Since Last Playoff Matchup Against Celtics

The Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics will be squaring off in the 2024 NBA Finals, meaning star guard Kyrie Irving will be up against one of his former teams with a championship on the line.

Irving spent two seasons with the Celtics from 2017-19, and his exit from the franchise was anything but ceremonious. After joining the rival Brooklyn Nets in '19, the relationship soured further over the next few seasons, including one infamous moment in which Irving could be seen "flipping the bird" at a fan in the TD Garden crowd after a Game 1 loss back in the 2022 playoffs.

Irving was fined $50,000 for that incident, and he admitted to ESPN's Tim MacMahon that he doesn't feel his actions then were strong reflection of who he is now.

"...when we played in the playoffs and everyone saw me flip off the birds and kind of lose my s--- a little bit–that wasn't a great reflection of who I am and how I like to compete on a high level," said Irving, via ESPN. "It wasn't a great reflection on my end towards the next generation on what it means to control your emotions in that type of environment, no matter what people are yelling at you."

Since pairing up with Luka Doncic in Dallas, Irving has earned nothing but rave reviews from teammates, who often look to him as the team leader. His leadership culminated in the franchise's first NBA Finals appearance since 2011, and it's a trait he feels he truly honed in on while with the Celtics, who were a young and upcoming team during his tenure.

"...the greatest thing I learned from Boston was just being able to manage not only my emotions or just what's going on on a day-to-day basis of being a leader of a team or being one of the leaders, and having young guys around you that have their own goals, but you have to learn how to put the big picture first," he said.

Four wins separate Irving from the second ring of his career, and although his past with the Celtics figures to be a prominent storyline in this NBA Finals matchup, he'll look to demonstrate the growth he's made as a leader and help guide Dallas to a championship.

3 Best Mavericks Players to Bet to Win NBA Finals MVP (Luka Doncic’s Award to Lose)

3 Best Mavericks Players to Bet to Win NBA Finals MVP (Luka Doncic’s Award to Lose)

The Dallas Mavericks are sizable underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics, but there are a lot of public bettors that believe Dallas will take this series.

If you also believe that’s the case, betting on a Mavs player to win Finals MVP is a great way to cash in on some favorable odds since Celtics All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite in this market. 

Luka Doncic is No. 2 on the list – clearly the top Mavs player entering this series – but there are two dark horses that I think are worth considering if you want to place a small wager on them to win NBA Finals MVP.

I’ve already given out my three favorite candidates on Boston, so why not do the same for the Mavs? It is the NBA Finals after all! 

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic (+200)

There is Doncic, and then there is a massive gap between the rest of the Mavs in this market – and for good reason. 

The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games. 

Doncic has a massive usage rate, and he looked to bet getting over his knee and ankle injuries – at least when it comes to his scoring – in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in each of Dallas’ four wins. 

Jrue Holiday will be a tough and likely matchup for Doncic, but let’s not forget that Luka nearly averaged a triple double in the regular season while putting up 33.9 points per game. Dallas will need him to be otherworldly to win this series, and if he is, he’s going to win Finals MVP. 

Kyrie Irving (+2000)

Has there been a bigger revenge series in recent memory than this one for Kyrie Irving?

A former Celtic, Irving has a chance to bury his former team in the Finals, and he is the clear-cut No. 2 option to win Finals MVP on the Mavericks. In fact, no player has shorter than +29000 odds on Dallas after Doncic and Irving. 

Kyrie’s scoring would likely be his calling card to propel him in this market, but asking him to outplay Doncic is a tough task, and if he does, doesn’t that put Dallas in a tough spot to win the series? 

The Mavs need both of their stars to be great in this series, and if that’s the case, the betting odds suggest Doncic is the clear favorite here. Kyrie could be worth a sprinkle, but his path to a Finals MVP is a little murky outside of him scoring at an all-time rate. 

Dereck Lively II (+50000)

The longest of longshots, rookie Dereck Lively II is second on the Mavericks in plus/minus this postseason, and he’s made a massive impact on the defensive end of the floor. 

Could Lively’s defense and rebounding be enough to win this award?

It’s highly unlikely, but he’s the one Mavs role player I’d consider given his positive impact on a game-to-game basis for the Mavs. Plus, if Lively wins the matchup with Kristaps Porzingis (Daniel Gafford will start for Dallas but Lively will probably close) late in games, it could be crucial to Dallas pulling off an upset.

Don’t break the bank betting on him, but for the sake of this exercise, he’d be my No. 3 choice.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Peter's Points: Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Betting Odds, Prediction and Pick

Peter’s Points: Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Betting Odds, Prediction and Pick

Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.

The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.

Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well. 

Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market. 

Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land. 

As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.  

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent. 

It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed. 

Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team. 

However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season. 

Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign. 

Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA. 

I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it. 

As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.

While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that. 

Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings. 

Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason. 

The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games. 

Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?

Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas. 

Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made. 

Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball. 

Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting. 

Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics. 

Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving. 

Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas. 

So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie? 

While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season. 

Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong. 

The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era. 

Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor. 

Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively. 

Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team. 

I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games. 

Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Public Bettors Heavily Backing Mavericks to Win NBA Finals Over Celtics

Public Bettors Heavily Backing Mavericks to Win NBA Finals Over Celtics

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors... are loving it?

Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.

It's shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it's the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.

I still believe that Boston -- with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis -- is the better team and will go on to win the title.

However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.

That's extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs' stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.

Still, taking note of where the public's money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Here's Every Player Making Their NBA Finals Debut in 2024

Here’s Every Player Making Their NBA Finals Debut in 2024

The Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics will face off in the 2024 NBA Finals. While many of the Celtics were on the team that went to the 2022 NBA Finals, some are making their Finals debut. The Mavericks, on the other hand are mostly made of Finals novices—with the very obvious exception of Kyrie Irving who hit one of the greatest shots in NBA Finals history against the Golden State Warriors in 2016.

Here are all the players making their NBA Finals debut this year.

Luka Dončić

It took him a few years, but he finally got here with the help of a ragtag bunch of castoffs that only a home PA announcer could love.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Hardaway came to Dallas with Kristaps Porzingis and refused to leave. Tim Hardaway's son has now been in the NBA for over a decade and has been a valuable contributor off the bench for many of them. He's only played 13 minutes a night in 10 postseason games this year, but he'll be ready if they need him.

Jaden Hardy

Hardy has averaged just 4.2 points per game in his first postesason, but he's appeared in 14 of the Mavericks 17 playoff games and shot 40% from three. For a 21-year old taken in the second round of the draft who is only in his second season, that's a pretty good contribution.

Dwight Powell

Powell was drafted by the Charlotte Bobcats in June 2014. He was traded to Cleveland two weeks later and then traded to Boston in August. In December he was part of the trade that sent Rajon Rondo to Dallas. While Rondo was gone before the team was eliminated from the playoffs, Powell has been there ever since.

Josh Green

Green was Dallas's first round selection in 2020. He's become a regular contributor and has played in all 17 playoff games, averaging 17 minutes a game for the Mavericks this year.

Dereck Lively II

Lively slipped to the 12th pick in the 2023 draft where he was taken by the Oklahoma City Thunder. He was almost immediately flipped to Dallas, where he contributed whenever healthy. He's come off the bench throughout the playoffs to give the Mavericks an average of eight points, seven rebounds and a block every night.

Dante Exum

Exum was the fifth pick in the 2014 draft and spent his first five seasons in Utah before being traded to Cleveland. Then, he went and played in Spain for two years before returning to the NBA with Dallas. He's given them brief minutes off the bench in the postseason and provided one of the most exciting moments of the entire season.

Maxi Kleber

Kleber was undrafted and signed by the Mavericks in 2017. He's been a decent 3-point shooter and played 20+ minutes a game for the last six seasons. He suffered a shoulder injury in the first round, but returned for Game 5 against the Timberwolves.

A.J. Lawson

Lawson has spent time with the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves before signing with Dallas in 2022. He appeared in 42 games for the Mavericks this season.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Prosper was drafted by the Kings and immediately traded to the Mavericks for cash. He bounced between the Mavericks and Texas Legends as a rookie, averaging three points and two rebounds in 40 NBA games. He has played one minute in the playoffs.

PJ Washington

After many wasted years in Charlotte, he was traded to the Mavericks on February 8th. This was his first trip to the postseason and he and Daniel Gafford celebrated their ascension on Thursday night.

Daniel Gafford

Gafford spent time in Chicago and Washington before Dallas rescued him the same day they picked up Washington. They have both started every game for Dallas during the postseason.

Kristaps Porziņģis

What a journey. Drafted fourth overall by the New York Knicks in 2015, Porziņģis was considered a unicorn. After suffering an ACL injury, he was traded—along with Tim Hardaway Jr.—to the Dallas Mavericks where people thought he could be the perfect second banana to a young Luka Dončić. After two first round exits in Dallas he was traded to the Washington Wizards. Then, he was traded again to the Celtics ahead of this season and played really well, but injuries have again limited him in the postseason. He should make his Finals debut.

Oshae Brissett

Brissett made his postseason debut with the Celtics after starting his career with Toronto and Indiana. Despite the lack of experience, he managed to make headlines by tweeting and deleting a message to Miami Heat fans early in the postseason. He has appeared in two of the Celtics last three games.

Svi Mykhailiuk

The Ukranian was taken by the Los Angeles Lakers in the second round of the 2018 draft using a pick that the Denver Nuggets originally traded in 2013. He spent time in Detroit, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto, New York and Charlotte before signing with Boston in the offseason. His one basket during the playoffs was a 3-pointer.

Neemias Queta

The 7-foot Portugese center was taken by the Kings in 2021 and signed with Boston during the 2023 offseason. He's been on the floor twice for Boston during the postseason.

Xavier Tillman Sr.

The Grand Rapids native was drafted by the Sacramento Kings out of Michigan State before he was traded to Memphis. He played 30 minutes a game during the Grizzlies first round loss to the Lakers last year. He was traded to Boston at the trade deadline and is playing a bit during this Celtics run so he should see the court in the Finals.

Jaden Springer

Springer was drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers late in the first round of the 2021 draft. The Celtics acquired him at the trade deadline.

Jordan Walsh

Walsh was drafted in the second round of the 2023 draft by the Sacramento Kings and traded to Boston in exchange for Colby Jones. Walsh has appeared in nine regular season games and two postseason games so far.

Kyrie Irving Is the NBA Finals Villain

Kyrie Irving Is the NBA Finals Villain

Last week, as thousands of green-clad fans spilled out of TD Garden and onto nearby Causeway St. still buzzing—and for many, still buzzed—from Boston’s Game 2 win over Indiana, an unmistakable chant filled the warm spring air.

We want Kyrie …

We want Kyrie …

It will be Dallas vs. Boston in the NBA Finals. It’s also Boston vs. Kyrie. Five years after Kyrie Irving’s abrupt exit, public (basketball) enemy No. 1 is back in town. They have met in the playoffs before, with Irving’s Nets wiping the floor with a battered Boston team in 2021 and the Celtics sweeping Brooklyn in ‘22.

A trip to the second round was at stake in those series.

This time, it’s a championship.

Said Irving, “Boston is in the way between our goal.”

In Boston, the disdain for Irving runs deep. He’s Ulf Samuelsson in high tops. Roger Goodell in gym shorts. The most disliked NBA player since Bill Laimbeer. What Reggie Miller is to New York, Irving is to Boston. The only difference is Miller never wore a Knicks uniform.  On eBay, you can still buy Irving jerseys in Celtics green.

Time heals most wounds. Not these. These have barely scabbed over. Irving has not exactly attempted to ease the tension. In 2021, before Irving returned to Boston for a first-round playoff series with Brooklyn, he said he hoped not to hear any “subtle racism.” After beating the Celtics in Game 4, Irving walked to center court and stomped on the logo.

There will inevitably be attempts to rewrite history in the days ahead. Irving didn’t hate Boston. He just wanted to go home to New York. He didn’t have bad relationships with his teammates. That’s media stuff, reporters chasing clicks. He didn’t bail out on his team late in the 2018-19 season. Those Celtics just didn’t have enough.

Nonsense. He wasn’t on the same page as Brad Stevens. He didn’t have much of a relationship with Jaylen Brown. Quit is probably too strong of a word but talk to enough people around that 2018-19 team and it’s clear there’s a belief that late in the season, Irving checked out. In the fall of ’18, Irving grabbed a mic and told a giddy Garden crowd he intended to re-sign there. By the spring, he was gone.

On Sunday, Irving talked about how he better understands leadership. In Boston, he struggled with it. Irving was the only member of the Celtics core with a championship, a status he was known to wield like a cudgel. He knew what it took to win—and he had the ring to prove it. During one locker room discussion, sources told SI, it was pointed out that Al Horford won two championships at Florida. Not the same, Irving said. A Boston assistant was part of a championship staff in Europe. Not the same, he replied. Aron Baynes, a reserve center on the Celtics 2018-19 team who won a title with San Antonio, wasn’t in the room for the exchange. At least one ex-teammate wonders what Irving would have said if he was.

Nov 19, 2018; Charlotte, NC, USA;  Celtics’ Kyrie Irving talks to head coach Brad Stevens.Nov 19, 2018; Charlotte, NC, USA;  Celtics’ Kyrie Irving talks to head coach Brad Stevens.

Things never fully clicked for Irving (11) in Boston. / Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

In Dallas, things are different. Throughout the organization, respect for Irving runs deep. He has been an extension of Jason Kidd on the floor. He has been a calming influence off of it. He has figured out how to succeed opposite Luka Dončić, creating an all-time great duo in the process. When Irving returned from a leg injury in January, team officials marveled at the effort Irving was putting in on the defensive end of the floor.

Asked about the skepticism of Irving’s fit in Dallas, Kidd said, “It’s alright to be wrong.”

Some of it is Irving, at 32, facing reality. He has played on three teams in the last six seasons. Four in the last eight. Cleveland, Boston, Brooklyn—Vesuvius left less wreckage. When Irving hit free agency last summer, Dallas was the only team offering real money to sign him.

Some of it is Dallas. The warm Texas climate and its right leaning politics. “He still will have his opinions of what he thinks,” said Kidd. “And here with the Mavs, we support that.” In Kidd, Irving has found a peer. Irving grew up watching Kidd in New Jersey. When Irving was in high school, they connected at a Nike event. “He was pretty good,” said Kidd. Inside the Dallas locker room, the bond between Irving and Kidd is ironclad.

“Just being able to talk the truth or speak the truth to one another,” said Kidd. “I compliment him for trusting me. I'm only here to tell him the truth and to try to help him achieve his goals.”

Kidd knows what it’s like to be a villain in Boston, his Nets years filled with fierce Celtics battles. Kidd was fueled by the hate. At times, Irving has seemed rattled by it. Irving has faced the Celtics 10 times since the 2021 playoffs. He has lost each one. He has had several dustups with fans, admitting in ‘22 that the crass attacks were “about so much you can take as a competitor.” It was bad then. It will be worse now.

“I’m at a place in my life where I don’t consider those past moments,” Irving told ESPN. “I was able to unpack them in a healthy way [and] move forward as a person. I had a rough time there when I was in Boston, dealing with a death in my family and a lot of off-court stuff that I wasn’t ready to handle. Now that I’m in a great place to be able to vocalize how I’m feeling, I’m ready to go back into Boston and have fun with my teammates.”

Fun? That’s up to Irving. Dallas needs a poised Irving. A composed one. This will be a difficult series. The Celtics are 2–0 against the Mavericks this season. They beat them by nine before the trades that brought P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford to Dallas. They beat them by 28 after. They have elite defenders, dynamic wing scorers and will likely have a healthy Kristaps Porziņģis when the series begins next week.

“They have a lot of talented players,” said Kidd. “They've been [to the Finals] before. They have the experience, they're well coached. This is another great test.”

They need Irving. Dončić will get his points. The All-NBA guard is enjoying one of the finest stretches of his career. But he will need help. He will need Irving to be the shot maker he was in the conference finals, where he averaged 27 points—including 36 in Game 5—on 49% shooting. The three-point shooter (42.3%) he has been in the playoffs. The All-Star-level sidekick he has been all season.

Irving is coming to Boston, and make no mistake: a hyped up Boston crowd will be waiting. The boos will be loud, the rhetoric nasty. It will be the most intense environment Irving has played in and this time, everything is at stake. A championship is within reach for Kyrie Irving. It’s the Celtics, it’s Boston standing in front of it.