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MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money

Happy Tuesday!

Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings.

Braves ML +145 at DraftKings

Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.

But I digress.

undefined — Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.

Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.

The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams.

The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB.

The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home. After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing.

Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings

The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.

So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves?

Justin Verlander.

Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched. Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.

Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

7 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Cavaliers-Celtics Odds Paint Grim Picture for Cleveland in NBA playoffs

If the Cleveland Cavaliers were looking for bulletin board material heading into their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Celtics, all they’d have to do is look at the odds.

Recent NBA betting scandals notwithstanding, it's clear oddsmakers don't think the Cavs stand any chance against Boston. In fact, sportsbooks are giving the Cavs a better chance of getting swept than upsetting the top-ranked Celtics, and it’s really not even close.

The Celtics are -3000 to win the series at FanDuel Sportsbook and -1200 to win at DraftKings. That means those sportsbooks are giving the Celtics an implied probability to win the series of 96.8% and 92.3% respectively.

Even more telling, the Celtics are +140 at FanDuel and +170 at DraftKings to win the series 4-0. Those are the shortest odds of any correct series score. The Celtics winning 4-1 has the second shortest odds at +170 and +190, respectively.

For context, even after winning Game 1, the Knicks are only -440 at FanDuel to win their Eastern Conference semifinal series.

This is not exactly surprising.

The Celtics have been the betting favorites to win the NBA championship most of the season and remain so today. They are +100 to win the title at FanDuel and +115 at DraftKings.

The Cavs are +10000 and +8000 at those books, respectively, the longest odds of any playoff team.

All of this paints a grim picture for the Cavs, even more so when you consider the Celtics are expected to be without their third-leading scorer from the regular season, Kristaps Porzingis, who is dealing with a calf injury and is not expected to play the entirety of the series.

The Cavs are at full strength but struggled to beat a young Orlando Magic team in the first round of the playoffs. The series went seven games and the Magic had the Cavs on the ropes in the first half of Game 7 before Donovan Mitchell took over and willed Cleveland into the second round.

Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics easily dispatched the Miami Heat in five games in the first round, though the Heat were without Jimmy Butler.

It’s clear oddsmakers believe in the duo of Tatum and Brown, not only against the Cavs, but against anyone in the league. The Cavs could look at that as an insult and use it as motivation. It won’t matter to oddsmakers though. It seems their belief is near certainty, at least in this round.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.