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MLB Best Bets: Back Two Road Underdogs at Plus Money

Happy Tuesday!

Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings.

Braves ML +145 at DraftKings

Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.

But I digress.

undefined — Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.

Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.

The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams.

The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB.

The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home. After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing.

Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings

The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.

So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves?

Justin Verlander.

Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched. Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.

Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

3 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Bet This, Not That: How to Wager on Caleb Williams’ Early Futures Markets

Now that the dust has settled from the NFL draft, it's time to examine some early futures markets and see where we can find value. Passing props have been released for several rookie signal-callers, giving us some insight into how Las Vegas values NFL freshmen.

Today, we kick off a new series, "Bet This, Not That." Use these articles as a guide for being creative and finding value when placing your wagers.

Regarding futures bets, weighing the payout vs. the time you'll tie up your bankroll is wise. Generally, I don't bet on season-long totals because that value is hard to find. But sometimes, there is a way to find value, or at least to get "hints" where you can find values in other markets. You can even use these markets as a good cheat sheet for how high to draft a player in your fantasy football drafts.

Let's look at the early futures markets for Bears QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. All odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Passing Yards: Over 3500.5 (-110) | Under 3500.5 (-110)

Passing TDs: Over 23.5 (-105) | Under 23.5 (-120)

First, let's start with some recent and historical trends:

Only 13 rookie quarterbacks have passed for more than 3,500 yards since 1970. Nine of those quarterbacks debuted in the last 10 seasons.

In 2023, rookie C.J. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards, ranking third behind Justin Herbert (4,336) and Andrew Luck (4,374). All three passers won Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Justin Herbert's 31 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2020 remains the most of all time.

Only five rookie passers since 1970 have tossed 24+ touchdowns in their debut season, one of which was Daniel Jones.

Based on these historical facts, Las Vegas is high on Williams according to the opening market for his season-long stats.

The Bears have created a dream situation for the rookie signal-caller. Williams has two elite veteran wideouts in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, not to mention a solid pass-catching tight end in Cole Kmet and a pass-catching running back in D'Andre Swift. The Bears also added All-American wideout Rome Odunze out of Washington with their ninth pick in the NFL draft.

The Bears' defense is improving, the O-line should provide ample pass protection, and new OC Shane Waldron has a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. The Heisman winner out of USC has everything going in his favor.

However, it's also worth noting no Chicago Bears rookie has ever come close to these numbers. In fact, only two Bears quarterbacks have surpassed 3,500 passing yards: Jay Cutler (2009, 2014, 2015) and Erik Kramer (1995). No Bears QB has passed for more than 3,900 yards in the franchise's history.

So, will Caleb Williams set new standards in Chicago? With everything aligning, the Bears are certainly betting on it.

But I'm not.

I'm fading the futures market for Williams, though I will draft him as a QB2 in my fantasy leagues.

If you're high on Williams but want to bet for better value, consider his OROY future, which pays +200 instead. That makes him the favorite for the award, and though it may not be the best overall value for the OROY award, it's a better value than betting the over on his season-long player totals, and it has a chance to cash even if he falls short of his totals. After all, the odds for the Bears to make the playoffs are (-125). I'd rather tie up my bankroll for a chance at the plus-money payout.

Bet This: Williams OROY (+200)

Not That: Williams over 23.5 passing touchdowns (-105)

2 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

MLB Best Bets: Four Plus-Money Player Props for Tonight’s Guardians-Astros Matchup

There’s only one game on the evening slate tonight, so all eyes will be on the Houston Astros again.

The Cleveland Guardians are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and the Astros have won three of their last four, and they may be able to start digging out of their hole.

Pick a winner. Nah.

Play some plus-money props? Yes, indeed!

Consider the value for these props offering plus-money payouts—all odds, according to DraftKings.

Let’s start with a strikeout prop for tonight:

HOU RHP Spencer Arrighetti over 4.5 strikeouts (+105)

The Guardians have a mere 19.7% strikeout rate this season—the fifth-lowest in MLB. Just last night, Justin Verlander tossed seven innings of two-run ball but only punched out two. Righty starters are averaging just four strikeouts per game vs. Cleveland this season.

Arrighetti has excellent stuff and generally has a high-strikeout upside with a K-rate of 12.66 per nine this year, but it’s hard to see Arrighetti going too long in this game based on his previous outings. Arrighetti has not yet made it to the fifth inning this season. So, all of that suggests the under. But here’s why we are grabbing the over:

Arrighetti has a K-rate of more than 15 per nine vs. left-handed hitters. Cleveland’s primary everyday lineup consists of only one right-handed hitter and two switch-hitters. The rest are lefties. That’s a very lefty-dominant lineup, and enough for me to take the risk for the payout.

Now, onto hitting props:

HOU Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+105)

HOU Kyle Tucker over .5 RBI (+120)

I love these props that are in plus money. Tucker has been Houston’s hottest hitter this year, with a team-leading eight home runs and 21 RBI, and he’s especially dominant when facing lefties.

Tucker is tied for second in MLB in extra-base hits vs. southpaws (eight), and he has the third-most RBI (11). He’s hitting .341 vs. lefties this year with a 1.147 OPS.

That should play well vs. Guardians pitcher Logan Allen, who has an ERA of 5.46 this season and has allowed an average exit velocity in the bottom 14% of the league.

José Ramírez over .5 RBI (+125)

Ramírez hasn’t had a hit yet in this Houston series, so you know what that means: He’s due. Seriously, though.

Ramírez will likely bat righty tonight vs. Arighetti, and he has 17 RBI vs. right-handed pitchers this season (tied for seventh in MLB). At +125, I like the value.

One last thing: I’m willing to grab the over on this game tonight, which is currently set at nine. Not only do the Astros punish lefties, but Arrighetti has an ERA of 10.97 this season. Sure, it should be better, but an xERA of 4.36, according to Statcast, still bodes well for the over when you consider how well the Guardians hit with RISP and how volatile Houston’s bullpen is this year. Both teams should get in their knocks tonight.

The Bets:

Arrighetti over 4.5K (+105)

Kyle Tucker over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Kyle Tucker over .5 RBI (+120)

Jose Ramirez over .5 RBI (+125)

Game total: Over 9 (-115)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.