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Struggling Braves Slump to Rare Losing Streak Not Seen in Seven Years

The Atlanta Braves are in the midst of a slump that is unprecedented for the team's current core.

Atlanta lost its fifth straight game Wednesday, falling 4–2 to the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. It's the first time the Braves have lost five straight games since September 2017, the final season before Atlanta began its current streak of winning six consecutive NL East division titles from '18 to '23.

The Braves have lost 5 straight games for the first time since September 2017 pic.twitter.com/HqQjgpd3ae
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 13, 2024

The Braves have been outscored 25–11 during their current skid, which began with a 2–1 loss to the Washington Nationals on June 7. In September 2017—the final month of Ozzie Albies's rookie season—the Braves lost six straight games to the New York Mets and Miami Marlins.

Atlanta going six-plus full seasons and 934 regular-season games between five-game losing streaks is quite the accomplishment.

For reference, there have been 37 streaks of five straight losses or worse in the big leagues this season. Twenty of MLB's 30 teams have lost five or more consecutive games already this year, and the lowly Chicago White Sox have plummeted to four different skids of at least five games in 2024.

After the loss to Baltimore, Atlanta dropped to 35–30 on the season and 10 games behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East.

The Braves will try to snap their skid Thursday in the series finale against Baltimore.

8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

MLB Best Bets Today, June 8th (Fade Kyle Bradish and Orioles?)

Who wants winners on Saturday?

With 15 Major League Baseball games on the docket Saturday, I'm going across the bigs to find three best bets on the card, including how to bet the Orioles vs. Rays game on Saturday, which features one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Kyle Bradish.

Can Bradish keep it up, or will he come back down to Earth?

Here's my bet for that game, as well as the Nationals vs. Braves matchup and the Reds vs. Cubs matchup in a division-filled best bets slate on Saturday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Braves vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Atlanta's lineup is struggling and Charlie Morton may not be able to give enough help on the mound. He has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.94 xERA, but has a walk rate of nearly 11%. There are simply too many free bases given out in what may be a low scoring affiar.

Atlanta keeps getting priced like the team will stop its slide, but I'm going to take advantage and go against it.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Cincinnati is playing its best ball now, second in the big leagues in OPS over the last 13 games and play in the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. I don't see the difference between the two teams at the moment being neglible, like this line indicates, and I expect Cincy to win with ease at home for a seventh straight game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

8 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Bet Dodgers as Road Underdogs)

Saturday's MLB slate is headlined by the battle between the two favorites to win the World Series, the Dodgers against the Yankees in the Bronx.

The World Series preview in June takes center stage as all of Major League Baseball is in action on Saturday. Lucky for you, we have commentary on how to bet every game!

Keep reading to find out how we view each game on the Saturday slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pick: Mets (+150)

There’s some variance baked into this game with it being played in London as part of MLB’s London Series.

With a short center field fence and the wind projected to be blowing out at London Stadium, this can be a short outing for the likes of Ranger Suarez, who is driving most of the opening odds in this game.

Pick: Twins (-120)

Simeon Woods Richardson continues to thrive for the Twins in his first full season with the club, posting a 3.04 ERA while showcasing excellent control, posting a walk rate of only six percent. The Minnesota starter will match up against Pirates opener Carmen Mlodzinski, who will put a ton of pressure on the Pittsburgh below average bullpen.

With the pitching edge, including a better pen, I’ll take the Twins as short road favorites.

Pick: Nationals (+120)

MacKenzie Gore has been outstanding this season, striking out a career best 27.3% of batters with a career low 3.57 ERA.

The former Padres prized prospect is starting to see perform like it and now draws a Braves team that is struggling without Ronald Acuna Jr, who tore his ACL and is out for the year. Atlanta is hitting only .211 in June.

Pick: Athletics (+135)

The Blue Jays remain a non starter for me as a road favorite, even against the lowly A’s.

Kevin Gausman has been overvalued all season, and Toronto is only 6-6 in his 12 starts. The right hander has an ERA of 4.60 while his xERA is far worse at 5.26, per MLBStatcast. He is striking out only 22% of batters, the lowest rate since 2018, and remains a worthy fade.

Pick: Brewers (-165)

Freddy Peralta has been outstanding this season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he has faced while keeping his walk rate below eight percent, about the big league average.

It’ll be tough sledding for the Tigers lineup that is bottom third in Major League Baseball in OPS while the Brewers are far better at generating run support for its pitching staff, fourth in the same metric.

Pick: Royals (+115)

The Royals rallied to win 10-9 on Friday, and the team remains a great bet at home, 23-10 at Kauffman Stadium this season.

Kansas City will have a stiff test against Luis Castillo, but the Royals ability to generate power is notable considering Castillo has allowed a barrel percentage in the 28th percentile this season, per MLBStatcast, and allows a high fly ball rate of over 60%.

Pick: Rays (+115)

Both starters have missed time this season, with different results, but I’m betting on it going in a different direction on Saturday.

Kyle Bradish of the Orioles has made six starts and has been pitching the best baseball of his career. He is striking out 32% of batters, way above his career average, while allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 25%, 99th percentile in the big leagues.

While it’s a fantastic start for a league average pitcher, regression will come for him soon.

I’ll try here, on the road against a Rays team that has pop in the lineup and a pitcher who has a high ceiling in Taj Bradley. The hard throwing right hander hasn’t had good results this season, his xERA is hovering around 7.00, but i believe he can outperform expectations given the Orioles have the third fewest walks on the year.

Pick: Reds (-120)

The Cubs’ skid has continued while the Reds have won six straight, so I’ll side with the hot home team.

It also helps that Chicago is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers this season as the team faces Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott.

Pick:Red Sox (-205)

Chicago snapped a 13 game skid on Friday, but I’m not counting on two wins in a row.

Pick: Rockies (+160)

Can Kyle Gibson justify this price tag? The veteran pitcher has a 3.69 ERA that is supported by a 4.99 xERA with a walk rate hovering around 10%.

For what it’s worth, Ryan Feltner pitches better on the road than at the hitter friendly Coors Field, so I can get behind him outperforming expectations.

Pick: Dodgers (+105)

The two best teams in baseball continue its weekend series, and I’ll side with the road underdog given the Yankees’ overall fitness with Juan Soto’s status in doubt for the foreseeable future.

If New York’s lineup isn’t at its best, it’ll be tough to keep up with the Dodgers, who have the highest OPS against left handed pitching this season.

Pick: Guardians (-160)

Cleveland is the far more talented side here and should have little issue snagging a road win.

Ben Lively’s strikeout rate is at a career high of 23% and the Guardians have the clear offensive edge, 11th in OPS against the Marlins, who check in 29th.

Pick: Diamondbacks (+125)

I’ll take Arizona to stay hot in June, winners of five of six, at an underdog price.

Ryne Nelson isn’t a strikeout-focused pitcher, only 14.9%, but he has limited his walks to only six percent, which is impactful against a Padres team that is reliant on drawing walks to get runners on base. Nelson’s ERA is also due to come down from his mark of 5.44, with an xERA of 4.77.

Pick: Astros (-165)

Angels starter Tyler Anderson has been among the best pitchers in baseball, but I expect a tough summer for the veteran left hander.

He has an ERA of 2.37, which is staggering to see given some of his other numbers, including a 16% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Meanwhile, his xERA is 4.49, making him ripe for a few blow ups as the season continues.

I’ll count on Saturday against a Houston lineup that is top five in OPS against southpaws.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Every MLB Team’s World Series Odds Through First Two Months of 2024 Season

We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.

What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?

In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.

The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.

The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.

The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.

The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.

The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.

The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.

The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.

The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.

It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.

The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.

The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.

I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

7 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Chris Sale Primed to Bounce Back)

Friday features a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball action, and there are plenty of ways to bet in the prop market with so many teams playing.

I’ve narrowed down my picks for Friday’s slate to just three, with two starting pitchers and one red-hot hitter getting the nod.

The game of the night on Friday is likely between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may need to have a big game after Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s contest with left forearm discomfort.

Judge is one of the three players I’m targeting tonight, so let’s dive into the picks for June 7:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chris Sale to Record a Win (-110)

Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is coming off a rough outing to open June, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the A’s, but I think he’s due for a bounce-back showing against the Washington Nationals on Friday.

Sale was terrific in May, allowing just two earned runs across five starts (32.0 innings of work), so I’m not reading too much into his clunker to start June.

The Braves are 8-3 in Sale’s 11 starts this season, and he’s earned the decision in every win, posting an 8-1 record. Prior to his last outing, Sale had earned the win in seven consecutive starts.

Rather than laying the price on the Braves moneyline, I like taking Sale to earn the win against a Washington team that struggles against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in MLB in OPS.

Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-125)

Judge and Soto have been the best duo in baseball this season, but if Soto misses this game – or extended time – Judge may see less pitches to hit going forward.

As it is, Judge has drawn at least one walk in five straight games, and he’s racked 52 total walks in 64 games so far in 2024.

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t walk a ton of hitters (just 14 in 12 starts), but I can’t imagine he’ll look to attack Judge every at bat with Soto likely out of the lineup on Friday.

Judge has been great at drawing walks and getting on base for years, so I’ll gladly take him at this price on Friday.

Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has a tough matchup on Friday, as he’s taking on the Houston Astros, who strikeout a league-low 6.83 times per game this season.

Canning has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 outings in 2024, and he struck out just two Houston batters across five innings in his first outing against the Stros this season.

Overall, Canning ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, so I don’t see him racking up a huge number on this prop against the least strikeout prone offense in the league.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

6 Jun 24 Jimm Sallivan

Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Time to Buy Low on Pablo Lopez?)

Thursday is a travel day for a handful of teams in the big leagues, but we still have baseball starting in the afternoon.

With about a third of the season finished, it's time to look for some buy-low candidates and I have my eye on Twins' starter Pablo Lopez, who is due for a big uptick in production as the calendar flips to June. The matchup is daunting against the surging Yankees, but are the Twins live for an upset?

I have betting break downs for each game on the Thursday MLB card below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The Orioles are the best-hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching, making this is a tough ask for the Blue Jays, who will start Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday afternoon.

Yes, Kikuch has lowered his walk rate to a career-low of five percent, but he still allows hard contact at a 43% clip, ranking in the 19th percentile, per MLBStatcast, a ripe matchup for the Orioles loaded lineup.

After a rain out on Wednesday, we get a Thursday meeting between these two, and I’m looking to fade Royal starter Brady Singer.

Brady Singer has 2.63 ERA but is due a ton of regression with an xERA of 4.35.

Against a Guardians lineup that can put the ball in play at an elite level, 11th in OPS, I’ll back the home favorite.

Bryan Woo has looked the part in five starts this season, posting a 1.30 ERA as he continues to be stretched out. Woo is striking out fewer batters, down to 18% from 25% as a rookie, but is walking only two percent of hitters while limiting posting an elite blend of fastball and off-speed pitches to avoid blowup innings.

With limited path to base runners, I struggle to see the A’s keeping up on Thursday.

Los Angeles is the second-best hitting team against lefties this season and draws a favorable matchup against Bailey Falter of the Pirates, who has seen his strikeout rate diminish to 15% this season.

Falter won’t be able to get around the vaunted bats of Los Angeles, and somebody is due for a big-hitting day against him with his xERA sitting far higher than his actual ERA (3.22 vs. 4.73).

I’ll take a stab at the Nationals as home underdogs on the premise of a summer drop-off from Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves starter.

Lopez has a 1.73 ERA, but his xERA is far higher at 3.72. He has been crushed by hard contact (42nd percentile) and his offspeed pitches are ineffective (17th percentile in terms of run value), and I believe the Nationals can have success. This is worth a flier on a home underdog.

Pablo Lopez’s numbers don’t indicate that he’s pitching at a high level, but he may be due for a big jump statistically based on his pitching. He has a 4.84 ERA despite posting a career-best walk rate. He has an xERA of 2.99 despite posting a 73rd percentile xBA, and I believe that he will turn it around soon.

I’ll fade the red-hot Yankees with a pitcher that is ripe to outperform expectations.

The Cubs slide in play continues, and this matchup doesn’t set up well for them as the team heads to Cincinnati to face the Reds with emerging arm Hunter Greene on the mound.

Chicago is 29th in OPS over the last 30 days while the Reds check in eighth. Further, Cubs’ starter Javier Assad may be due for a drop in play after a strong start to the year. He has a 2.27 ERA that is supported by a 3.72 xERA.

Sonny Gray has been on a tear this season. He has a 3.00 ERA while striking out a career-best 33.5% of batters. Even when hitters are putting the ball in play, it's soft contact (66th percentile in hard-hit percentage).

At home, the Cardinals should have little issue getting past the Rockies.

Tanner Houck is putting up All-Star numbers for Boston this season, posting a 1.85 ERA, and now faces the worst offense in Major League Baseball in Chicago, with the lowest OPS.

I’m not backing an upset given the lack of talent for the White Sox.

This is a fade of Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has a 5.41 xERA and is walking nearly 10% of batters. This is problematic against the Diamondbacks, a team that is top 10 in walks this season and eighth in on-base percentage.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

6 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Braves’ Jarred Kelenic Got His Cleats From Unlikely Source

The Seattle Mariners' decision to trade Jarred Kelenic to the Atlanta Braves this offseason came as quite a surprise given the apparent up-and-coming status of both the Mariners and Kelenic. Regardless of the why of it all, the Braves were more than happy to add Kelenic to their loaded lineup.

So far it looks like a solid enough decision. Atlanta went 20-12 in the first month of the season. Kelenic hasn't quite found his swing and is still hunting for his first home run of the year, but he's batting a perfectly fine .274 in 26 games played. The 24-year-old outfielder is also stirring discussion with his impressive American flag cleats, which he apparently got from the unlikeliest of sources.

During Sunday afternoon's broadcast of the Braves' matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Bally Sports play-by-play announcer Brandon Gaudin revealed Kelenic did not have his cool kicks custom-made or anything of the like. In fact, as Kelenic tells it, he got it from a "random guy" on eBay.

Jarred Kelenic says he got the cleats he was wearing today from a "random guy on eBay" pic.twitter.com/bev9pDTNe3
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 5, 2024

In a day and age where any professional athlete can shell out thousands for highly-customized apparel through avenues unavailable to the average consumer, this is a beautiful thing. A throwback to when times were simpler and eBay was the only place to find pretty much anything unique.

Those are some seriously high-quality shoes from some random dude, though. Pro athletes put their shoes through incredible wear-and-tear in short periods of time no matter the sport. If they're up to snuff in Kelenic's eyes then maybe Nike should be reaching out to get his design ideas because he's got the durability factor down already.

Unfortunately the shoes held no magic yesterday as Kelenic went 0-1 against the Dodgers with one strikeout. But tomorrow the Boston Red Sox will come to town for a quick two-game series and give the shoes another chance to shine.

6 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Shohei Ohtani Off to Historic Start After Launching Two Homers in Dodgers’ Win

Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani is off to quite the start at the plate in 2024.

Ohtani homered twice in the Dodgers' 5–1 win over the Atlanta Braves on Sunday to help complete a sweep of the team which entered the weekend with the best record in baseball. He went 4-for-4 on Sunday and smacked his second homer of the day 464 feet to center field.

TWO HOMER DAY? BRAVO, SHOHEI. pic.twitter.com/doXseFxX0U
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 5, 2024

Ohtani now is tied for the league lead in homers with 10. In 35 games, he has collected 25 extra-base hits (14 doubles, one triple, 10 homers), the most for a player's first 35 contests with the Dodgers in MLB history (h/t Sarah Langs).

But there's more.

Ohtani's 25 extra-base hits through 35 games also marks his best start to a season. He also has never posted more hits (52), runs (30), total bases (98) or notched a better batting average (.364), on-base percentage (.426) or slugging percentage (.685) through 35 contests in his career.

Ohtani already has 2 unanimous MVPs and is off to his BEST start thru 35 games as a hitter:
XBH: 25, most
Hits: 52, most
BA: .364, best
Runs: 30, most
Total bases: 98, most
OBP: .426, best
SLG: .685, best
OPS: 1.111, best https://t.co/TYhs9I00JS
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) May 5, 2024

The Dodgers gave Ohtani a 10-year, $700 million contract in free agency last offseason in hopes he'd continue to be the two-way superstar

Ohtani won't pitch until next year, but he already might be worth the Dodgers' investment solely from his offensive production so far.

Ohtani and the Dodgers return to the field Monday to begin a three-game series against the Miami Marlins, who own the second-fewest wins in the National League with a 10–26 record.

1 May 24 Jimm Sallivan

Ronald Acuña Jr. Slump Hits Alarming New Low for Braves

For some time now, the Atlanta Braves have gone as their young superstar, Ronald Acuña Jr. has gone. But to start 2024, Acuña has slumped while the Braves have continued to win, leading the NL East by a half-game going into Wednesday's game.

Acuña, meanwhile, has hit statistical marks that resemble some previous slumps, while achieving personal records of the wrong kind.

David O'Brien pointed out on Tuesday night that Acuña's two strikeouts to start the game officially gave him more multi-strikeout games than he had in all of last season. April has just finished. Acuña closed the game 0-for-4 and the Braves lost 3-2 to the Seattle Mariners. It lowlights a season where he's slashing just .245/.366/.318.

Surely, reason for concern for both the player and the team, even despite the fact that Atlanta has won through his slow start. The Braves can only get so far without Acuña achieving his potential. He's struggled with fastballs so far this year, slugging .100 against four-seamers, a pitch he slugged .615 against in 2023.

Contextualizing his slow start, his 10-game rolling strikeout rate went above 35 percent in April, something that hadn't happened for him since 2022 when he slumped in July. His slump was as pronounced then as it is now. After bouncing back from the slump, he admitted his knee injury from then held him back.

While there's been no official word from Acuña that the knee is what's to blame for this slump, that same knee bothered him in Spring Training and he missed some time before Opening Day. And the characteristics of what he was struggling through -- struggling with four-seam fastballs -- were similar.

There are nuggets of optimism to glean from the situation. The most obvious is that Acuña has battled through month-long slumps before, that 2022 one sticking out as an obvious example. Acuña can recall the extra work he put in in late July and early August with lots of additional pregame work as a way out.

In 2022, after his 10-game rolling strikeout rate peaked at 40.5 percent on the 23rd of June, he got it all the way down to 12.2 percent by August 5th. August wound up being his best month at the plate in OPS (.877), batting average (.316) and total bases (45). He has proven the capability to bounce back.

No slump is the same, but Atlanta will be hoping for a similar comeback.