Two first-place teams in the National League face off on Monday night – the first game of the day in Major League Baseball – and the Philadelphia Phillies are heavily favored over the Milwaukee Brewers
Philly enters this game with the best record in the NL, and it will have NL Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler on the bump for his 13th start of the season. While the Brewers haven’t officially released who their starter will be, it appears Bryse Wilson will either start or come in after an opener in this matchup.
DraftKings Sportsbook has player props up for both Wheeler and Wilson.
With Philly set as such a big favorite, how should we bet on this matchup? I’m eyeing a play on the total on Monday.
Run Line
Moneyline
Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers
William Contreras: One of the best catchers in baseball this season, Contreras is hitting .316 with eight homers and 44 runs batted in across 59 games. He’ll be a driving force for Milwaukee’s offense if it can knock off Wheeler on Monday.
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler: The NL Cy Young favorite, Wheeler has been lights out this season, posting a 2.32 ERA and 2.78 FIP. The Phillies are just 6-6 in his 12 starts, but Wheeler has recorded a win in each game that Philly has won. He’s coming off six innings of two-hit ball against the San Francisco Giants in his last start.
In the 2024 season, no team has hit the OVER more than the Brewers (34-22-3), and I’m leaving there again on Monday.
These two teams are No. 3 (Milwaukee) and No. 5 (Philadelphia) in OPS this season, and Wilson could be due for some regression on the mound despite his respectable ERA in 2024.
Wilson has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 5.00 and an expected ERA of 4.75, a sign that he’s been a little lucky so far this season. Against a Phillies lineup that has several sluggers, that could be an issue.
Plus, in Wilson’s last two outings, the Brewers have combined for 16 and nine runs, clearing this total on both occasions.
I don’t love taking an OVER when Wheeler is on the mound, but he has given up at least three runs in four of 12 starts and two or more in six of 12 outings. It may not be a lot, but it’s enough to help this total in what could be a big game for the Philly offense.
Pick: OVER 8.5 (-105)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
