There are several key trends to know ahead of Game 1, starting with Boston’s record as a home favorite. The C’s are 26-21-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points per game.
Boston also has the best against the spread record in the first half of games this season (63-32-1).
Dallas Mavericks on the Road
The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 against the spread on the road, but we can break that down even further.
As a road underdog, Dallas is 14-11 against the spread, which isn’t as great, but it thrived as a road favorite, going 20-5 ATS. Unfortunately, the Mavs are road dogs in Game 1.
Game 1 Favorites Dominate Since 2005
Since 2005 Game 1 favorites are an insane 16-3 against the spread, and going back the past 30 years, they are 21-9 against the spread.
Boston is favored by 6.5 points in Game 1, and it has covered in two of the three opening games of its playoff series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BOSTON – Jason Kidd made 10 All-Star teams during his NBA career, earning his place among the great playmakers with size, skill and, yes, smarts. Kidd saw the game better than most, still does. On Saturday, as Kidd’s media availability was wrapping up, he was asked a a boilerplate question about Jaylen Brown’s game.
“Well, Jaylen,” Kidd said, “is their best player.”
Boom, there’s your story. Kidd knew what he was doing with that answer. Of course he did. Few dynamics are more closely scrutinized than Brown and Jayson Tatum. Just last week, ESPN Zapruder-filmed a video of Tatum applauding Brown’s conference finals MVP win—not hard enough for their liking—to wonder if there was an issue. Brown is routinely measured against Tatum, two All-NBA wings, teammates, forever in competition. Kidd’s comment was less praise for Brown than a chance to toss a grenade into Boston’s locker room.
“J-Kidd, man,” said Celtics center Al Horford, laughing. “I see what he is doing.”
Indeed, everyone does. And why not? If there was anything learned from Boston’s 107–89 shellacking of the Mavericks in Game 1, it’s that in this series, Dallas is outgunned. Luka Doncic got 30 but he needed 26 shots to get there, while the Celtics’ ability to defend him straight up held Doncic to a single assist. Gone were the lobs, the corner threes that powered the Mavs through a rugged Western Conference. Instead, it was congested drives and contested jumpers while Dallas struggled to get anything past the 7’2” Kristaps Porzingis waiting for them at the rim.
“I thought we were too much one-on-one,” said Kidd. “We've got to move bodies. We've got to move the ball. Multiple guys have to touch the ball. We were just too stagnant, and that's not the way we play. We've got to be better.”
Kyrie Irving will be better because, for Irving, it couldn’t go much worse. Irving scored 12 points on Thursday, connecting on 31.6% of his shots and missing all five of his threes. Much was made of how the Boston crowd would respond to Irving on Thursday, and while there were the obligatory chants, all things considered the reaction was relatively tame. “I thought it would be louder,” Irving said. Many of Irving’s misses were off open looks and Dallas is confident if he gets the same looks in Game 2, those shots will go down.
“I mean it was our first time being together as a group in this Finals stage,” said Irving. “Experience is the best teacher at times when you don't know what to expect.”
Even if Irving is better, Dallas needs more. More from Dereck Lively II, the springy rookie who got off one shot in 18 minutes. More from Derrick Jones Jr., who finished 2-for-9 from the floor. More from Josh Green, who was 1-for-4. The Mavs committed 11 turnovers in Game 1, which led to 18 Celtics points.
“We've got to take care of the ball,” Kidd said. “We've got to make it easier for Ky and Luka. Being able to put those guys in different spots on the floor so there's a little bit stress-free so they can do what they do at a high level. We just didn't do that in Game 1.”
Kidd’s press conference tactic doesn’t appear to have had its desired effect. / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Kidd created a firestorm with his lofty praise of Brown but inside Boston’s locker room, it isn’t going anywhere. For years the dynamic between the two has been scrutinized, and all it has done is make the bond between them stronger. They are very different people, Tatum and Brown, but they share the same goal. Six conference finals, two NBA Finals and all that matters now is that they don’t leave this one empty handed.
“This is a team sport, right?” Tatum said. “We understand that. We wouldn't be here if we didn't have JB on our team, and we can say that for a lot of guys. We have all played a part in getting to where we're at. We understand that people try to drive a wedge between us. I guess it's a smart thing to do or try to do. We've been in this position for many of years of guys trying to divide us and say that one of us should be traded or one is better than the other. So it's not our first time at the rodeo.”
Said Brown, “We've been just extremely focused on what our roles and our jobs are. We have all had to sacrifice. Jason [Kidd] has had to do that at the highest of levels and I respect him and tip his cap for it. Right now, at this point, it's whatever it takes to win and we can't let any outside interpretations try to get in between.”
Dallas wants Tatum to feel slighted, to overcompensate, try too hard to assert himself in Game 2. Not happening, Tatum says. Tatum wants to score but if the Mavs tilt its defense towards Tatum again, if they continue to load up, Tatum will keep the ball moving. He collected five assists in Game 1 and if more shots had fallen, he could have racked up several more.
“It's just about reading the game,” Tatum said. “Draw so much attention, you know, when I have the ball in my hands. It's about creating an advantage. We always talk about that, watching film, creating advantage, finding the mismatch that we want, and it might not always end up in the shot for you. Or if you set a screen and get a smaller guy on you, just having that mismatch and calling for the ball, right, it may draw other defenders to help, and we can pin in for somebody else to get a shot. Those things won't show up in the stats sheet, but it's part of our execution, and sometimes you have to make a sacrificial cut or things like that to generate good shoots.”
Even after years of success as teammates, after All-Stars and All-NBA teams, 50-win seasons and deep playoff runs, questions about Tatum and Brown’s relationship still linger. Only one thing will kill them off. On Sunday, Boston will look to move one win closer to doing so.
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals, and public bettors... are loving it?
Dallas is around +175 to +180 (depending on the sportsbook) to win the Finals (an implied probability of 36.36 percent), yet more than 80 percent of the bets at BetMGM are on the Mavs to win the series against the Boston Celtics.
It's shocking to see bettors heavily backing Dallas since Boston has dominated the playoffs going 12-2 and finished the regular season with the best record and net rating in the NBA. Maybe it's the plus money that has bettors intrigued, but can Dallas really pull off the win in the Finals?
Earlier on Monday, yours truly broke down this NBA Finals matchup with the latest odds, players to watch and keys to winning the series.
I still believe that Boston -- with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis -- is the better team and will go on to win the title.
However, Dallas has certainly made a compelling argument since the last 20 games of the regular season. Not only did the Mavs finish those 20 games 16-4 with the best defensive rating in the NBA, but they also won three straight playoff series as a road team and underdog.
That's extremely impressive, and it could be what is causing this massive influx of public bets on the Mavs to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have their hands full with a tough defense that features Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown, but if the Mavs' stars outplay Brown and Jayson Tatum, it could be enough to win this series.
Still, taking note of where the public's money is can be a helpful strategy when deciding where to bet on a series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic walks on to a basketball court, he immediately becomes a threat to put up a triple-double.
In six years in the NBA, Doncic has been nothing short of a triple-double machine. He is already tied for eighth all-time in that category with 77—18 more than Hall of Fame forward Larry Bird, and 49 more than Hall of Fame guard Michael Jordan.
As he makes his NBA Finals debut, it's worth looking back at the history of players reaching double figures in three of basketball's five major counting statistics (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) on the sport's biggest stage.
A triple-double, in basketball, is when a player hits three of the following statistical benchmarks in a single game: 10 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, 10 blocks or 10 steals. Hitting two is a more common double-double, while hitting four is an extraordinarily rare quadruple-double.
The NBA record for most career triple-doubles is held by Los Angeles Clippers guard Russell Westbrook with 199.
Since the advent of the NBA Finals, 23 players are known to have accomplished the feat, per StatMuse.
PLAYER
NUMBER OF TRIPLE-DOUBLES
LeBron James, Heat/Cavaliers/Lakers
11
Magic Johnson, Lakers
8
Draymond Green, Warriors
3
Larry Bird, Celtics
2
Jimmy Butler, Heat
2
Wilt Chamberlain, 76ers
2
Bob Cousy, Celtics
2
Walt Frazier, Knicks
2
NIkola Jokić, Nuggets
2
Bill Russell, Celtics
2
Charles Barkley, Suns
1
Elgin Baylor, Lakers
1
Dave Cowens, Celtics
1
Stephen Curry, Warriors
1
Tim Duncan, Spurs
1
Kevin Durant, Warriors
1
Jason Kidd, Nets
1
Jamal Murray, Nuggets
1
Scottie Pippen, Bulls
1
Rajon Rondo, Celtics
1
Wes Unseld, Bullets
1
Jerry West, Lakers
1
James Worthy, Lakers
1
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, with 11. James is the only player to accomplish the feat with three different teams, having registered triple-doubles with the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Lakers. He is also one of three players, along with ex-Los Angeles guard Jerry West and forward James Worthy, to record a triple-double in Game 7 of the Finals.
James spread his triple-doubles out, too: he recorded one in his much-maligned 2011 Finals, one in the 2012 Finals, two in the 2013 Finals, two in the 2015 Finals, one in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals, two in the 2017 Finals, one in the 2018 Finals, and one in the 2020 Finals.