It would be hard to script a worse start to a season than José Abreu’s first 22 games of 2024.
A year after a solid-if-not-spectacular first season with the Houston Astros, Abreu is slashing .099/.156/.113 with no home runs and three RBI in 22 games. The Astros are struggling as well, with a record of 9-19 relegating them to the American League West’s basement.
On Tuesday, Houston took a drastic step. According to general manager Dana Brown, the Astros and Abreu have agreed on a demotion to the FCL Astros of the Florida Complex League in West Palm Beach, Fla. “to get (Abreu) some at-bats and his timing back right.”
José Abreu is not with the Astros, GM Dana Brown said. Both sides decided that Abreu will be optioned to West Palm Beach effective tomorrow “to get some at-bats and his timing back right.”
Abreu, 37, has been a consistent performer since debuting for the Chicago White Sox in 2014. He finished fourth in the AL MVP voting after a sensational rookie season, and was named the AL’s MVP following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Houston signed Abreu to a three-year, $59 million contract in Nov. 2022. The Astros open a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday in Texas.
UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.
The initial prognosis on Juan Soto's MRI is that it's only inflammation and he should be ok, per @JonHeyman
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 7, 2024
What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.
New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."
However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.
"The Yankees have their fingers crossed, they're nervous."
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) June 7, 2024
Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.
That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.
Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.
The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.
Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.
In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.
Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.
The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.
Juan Soto says he's felt the forearm tightness for a couple weeks but it hasn't impacted his baseball related activities at all pic.twitter.com/UuyC2ATyyA
Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.
If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.
The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.
I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.
Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.
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They’re now on a three-game win streak after defeating the Cleveland Guardians in dramatic extra-innings walk-off fashion at home Tuesday night. The final score was 9-8.
Perhaps it was the energy change of Jose Abreu DFA-ing himself to work on his swing, or maybe it’s just that the pitching rotation is getting healthier, but either way, I’m willing to bet on it.
Justin Verlander gets the ball tonight at home, and he has looked strong to start the season, allowing only two earned runs across his first two starts (10 ⅓ innings pitched). However, his xERA of 4.50, according to Statcast, suggests there could be some regression. Keep your eye on Jose Ramirez, who has excellent career numbers vs. Verlander.
Triston McKenzie gets the start for Cleveland. McKenzie is pitching with a torn ligament in his left elbow (true story), which seems to have affected his command. McKenzie has walked 6.95 batters per nine innings this year, which could spell trouble vs. a Houston team that no longer has Abreu as an automatic out. Despite their lack of wins, the Astros have the third-best BA in MLB (.265), the fifth-highest SLG (.419), and the fifth-best OPS (.750).
The Guardians have been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to RISP, while the Astros have been one of the worst teams when it comes to relief pitching. Despite their star power, the Astros bullpen could be shaky today with many relievers—including closer Josh Hader—likely unavailable after being used in Tuesday night’s extra innings.
When I add all this up, all signs point to the over on the game total of nine runs tonight at the Juice Box.
Expect Jose Altuve and Jeremey Pena to get hits, and Triston McKenzie to strike out fewer than 4.5 batters. The Astros have the lowest K rate in MLB at just 16.6%, and McKenzie has struck out no more than two batters in each of his last three starts.
The Astros are -175 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win, so if you don’t like the payout but want to shy away from the run line, consider an SGP (same-game parlay) with one of the player props mentioned above.
The Astros have won five of their last seven matchups with the Guardians dating back to 2023.
The Bets, with odds coming via DraftKings Sportsbook:
We're officially more than two months into the 2024 Major League Baseball season so it's time to take a step back and take a look at the futures markets.
What teams have underperformed? What teams are a surprising contender? Are there any teams we should bet on now or are there a few we should stay away from?
In this article, we're going to take a look at the latest World Series odds for all 32 teams. Let's dive into it. All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Dodgers, despite underperforming by their standards, are still set as the World Series favorites at +260, which is an implied probability of 27.78%. There's no denying the talent this roster has and they're still playing well enough to have a hefty lead on the NL West.
The New York Yankees have been the best team in baseball through the first two months. Their pitching has been sharp and their offense, specifically the play of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, has been unbelievable. If I were to pick one team to win it all at this point of the season, I'd pick the Yankees.
The Phillies have the best record in the National League at 44-19. They have a great chance to yet again go on a deep playoff run.
The injury bug has bitten the Braves, most notably Ronald Acuna Jr., who will miss the rest of the 2024 season. There's still plenty of time for them to rally and there's a reason they're still fourth on the odds list to win it all.
The Orioles are still well behind the Yankees in the AL East, but at 39-22, they'll be back in the playoffs once again.
The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West, but their offense needs to wake up if they want to be true World Series contenders in 2024.
The AL Central was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, but as of writing this article, four of the five teams are at .500 or above, including the Minnesota Twins at 33-29.
The Houston Astros don't look like the same contender they once were. Their metrics are still respectable and their offense has woken up in recent weeks. If there's one team that has got off to a slow start that I could see getting hot in the second half of the season, it's the Astros.
The Cleveland Guardians are eye-popping 40-21 as of writing this article. While that's impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if he saw some regression from this team in the second half of the season.
The Milwaukee Brewers lead the NL Central and have had one of the better offenses through the first two months of the season. They are a team to watch in the National League.
It's been a bad start to the season for the defending World Series champions. Their offense has been middling and their bullpen continues to cost them games. They need to find a way to turn the ship around or they're going to fail to make the playoffs.
The Kansas City Royals might be the single most surprising team in the Majors this season at 37-26. Not only has their record been good, but they have the metrics to back it up. Between strong offensive statistics and more than one Cy Young candidate in their rotation, the Royals could be a Cinderella story in 2024.
The Blue Jays may be the most disappointing team in the Majors. Despite looking like a talented squad on paper, their offense has been without teeth and their bullpen has been abysmal. On top of that, their rotation hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. Time is running out for Toronto.
I feel sorry for Mets fans. It's been a disaster of a season and they're already 16.5 games back from the Phillies in the NL East.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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