It would be hard to script a worse start to a season than José Abreu’s first 22 games of 2024.
A year after a solid-if-not-spectacular first season with the Houston Astros, Abreu is slashing .099/.156/.113 with no home runs and three RBI in 22 games. The Astros are struggling as well, with a record of 9-19 relegating them to the American League West’s basement.
On Tuesday, Houston took a drastic step. According to general manager Dana Brown, the Astros and Abreu have agreed on a demotion to the FCL Astros of the Florida Complex League in West Palm Beach, Fla. “to get (Abreu) some at-bats and his timing back right.”
José Abreu is not with the Astros, GM Dana Brown said. Both sides decided that Abreu will be optioned to West Palm Beach effective tomorrow “to get some at-bats and his timing back right.”
Abreu, 37, has been a consistent performer since debuting for the Chicago White Sox in 2014. He finished fourth in the AL MVP voting after a sensational rookie season, and was named the AL’s MVP following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Houston signed Abreu to a three-year, $59 million contract in Nov. 2022. The Astros open a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday in Texas.
Happy Hump Day! It’s a great day for an entire day of major league baseball.
If you want to get in on the action, I’ve found a couple of appealing plus-money strikeout props for you to consider: one for the afternoon and one for the evening slate.
Let’s have some fun!
Framber Valdez under 4.5 K (+120) at San Francisco Giants
Jun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The San Francisco Giants' low strikeout rate has me looking at the under on Framber's K-prop today. The Giants have a 21.3% K-rate this season, resulting in an average of eight strikeouts per game. That K-rate drops even further to 20% when they face lefties.
Framber Valdez pitched a complete game in his last outing, punching out eight Los Angeles Angels. That's likely why we're getting good plus-money today for this under, even though Framber's 63.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starters with 40+ innings pitched and he is striking out batters at just seven per nine innings.
Framber is averaging five strikeouts per game this season, so this isn't without risk, but the payout is appealing. He has gone under this prop in five of 10 starts this season.
Nick Pivetta over 5.5 K (+105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Am I wrong, or is Nick Pivetta consistently under-appreciated?
Pivetta is striking batters out at nearly 11 per nine, and his walk rate is among the best in the league. That strikeout rate is even better when he is pitching at Fenway. Pivetta has a K-rate of 12.23 at home this year.
Philadelphia is not a high K-rate team, striking out just 20.4% of the time vs. righties this year (eighth-best in MLB), but historically, Pivetta has struck out this Phillies lineup at a rate of 26.8%, according to Statcast.
Pivetta has exceeded this prop in five of eight starts this season, including four of his last five. I'll take the value and bet he gets to six today.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Friday features a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball action, and there are plenty of ways to bet in the prop market with so many teams playing.
I’ve narrowed down my picks for Friday’s slate to just three, with two starting pitchers and one red-hot hitter getting the nod.
The game of the night on Friday is likely between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may need to have a big game after Juan Soto exited Thursday night’s contest with left forearm discomfort.
Judge is one of the three players I’m targeting tonight, so let’s dive into the picks for June 7:
Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is coming off a rough outing to open June, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the A’s, but I think he’s due for a bounce-back showing against the Washington Nationals on Friday.
Sale was terrific in May, allowing just two earned runs across five starts (32.0 innings of work), so I’m not reading too much into his clunker to start June.
The Braves are 8-3 in Sale’s 11 starts this season, and he’s earned the decision in every win, posting an 8-1 record. Prior to his last outing, Sale had earned the win in seven consecutive starts.
Rather than laying the price on the Braves moneyline, I like taking Sale to earn the win against a Washington team that struggles against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in MLB in OPS.
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Walks (-125)
Judge and Soto have been the best duo in baseball this season, but if Soto misses this game – or extended time – Judge may see less pitches to hit going forward.
As it is, Judge has drawn at least one walk in five straight games, and he’s racked 52 total walks in 64 games so far in 2024.
Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t walk a ton of hitters (just 14 in 12 starts), but I can’t imagine he’ll look to attack Judge every at bat with Soto likely out of the lineup on Friday.
Judge has been great at drawing walks and getting on base for years, so I’ll gladly take him at this price on Friday.
Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning has a tough matchup on Friday, as he’s taking on the Houston Astros, who strikeout a league-low 6.83 times per game this season.
Canning has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 outings in 2024, and he struck out just two Houston batters across five innings in his first outing against the Stros this season.
Overall, Canning ranks in just the 13th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, so I don’t see him racking up a huge number on this prop against the least strikeout prone offense in the league.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings.
Braves ML +145 at DraftKings
Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.
Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.
But I digress.
Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.
Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.
The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams.
The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB.
The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home. After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing.
Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings
The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.
So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves?
Justin Verlander.
Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander takes the mound Tuesday.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched. Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.
Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
