It would be hard to script a worse start to a season than José Abreu’s first 22 games of 2024.
A year after a solid-if-not-spectacular first season with the Houston Astros, Abreu is slashing .099/.156/.113 with no home runs and three RBI in 22 games. The Astros are struggling as well, with a record of 9-19 relegating them to the American League West’s basement.
On Tuesday, Houston took a drastic step. According to general manager Dana Brown, the Astros and Abreu have agreed on a demotion to the FCL Astros of the Florida Complex League in West Palm Beach, Fla. “to get (Abreu) some at-bats and his timing back right.”
José Abreu is not with the Astros, GM Dana Brown said. Both sides decided that Abreu will be optioned to West Palm Beach effective tomorrow “to get some at-bats and his timing back right.”
Abreu, 37, has been a consistent performer since debuting for the Chicago White Sox in 2014. He finished fourth in the AL MVP voting after a sensational rookie season, and was named the AL’s MVP following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Houston signed Abreu to a three-year, $59 million contract in Nov. 2022. The Astros open a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday in Texas.
Happy Hump Day! It’s a great day for an entire day of major league baseball.
If you want to get in on the action, I’ve found a couple of appealing plus-money strikeout props for you to consider: one for the afternoon and one for the evening slate.
Let’s have some fun!
Framber Valdez under 4.5 K (+120) at San Francisco Giants
Jun 7, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The San Francisco Giants' low strikeout rate has me looking at the under on Framber's K-prop today. The Giants have a 21.3% K-rate this season, resulting in an average of eight strikeouts per game. That K-rate drops even further to 20% when they face lefties.
Framber Valdez pitched a complete game in his last outing, punching out eight Los Angeles Angels. That's likely why we're getting good plus-money today for this under, even though Framber's 63.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starters with 40+ innings pitched and he is striking out batters at just seven per nine innings.
Framber is averaging five strikeouts per game this season, so this isn't without risk, but the payout is appealing. He has gone under this prop in five of 10 starts this season.
Nick Pivetta over 5.5 K (+105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 29, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) throws a second inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Am I wrong, or is Nick Pivetta consistently under-appreciated?
Pivetta is striking batters out at nearly 11 per nine, and his walk rate is among the best in the league. That strikeout rate is even better when he is pitching at Fenway. Pivetta has a K-rate of 12.23 at home this year.
Philadelphia is not a high K-rate team, striking out just 20.4% of the time vs. righties this year (eighth-best in MLB), but historically, Pivetta has struck out this Phillies lineup at a rate of 26.8%, according to Statcast.
Pivetta has exceeded this prop in five of eight starts this season, including four of his last five. I'll take the value and bet he gets to six today.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.
The initial prognosis on Juan Soto's MRI is that it's only inflammation and he should be ok, per @JonHeyman
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 7, 2024
What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.
New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."
However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.
"The Yankees have their fingers crossed, they're nervous."
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) June 7, 2024
Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.
That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.
Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.
The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.
Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.
In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.
Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.
The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.
Juan Soto says he's felt the forearm tightness for a couple weeks but it hasn't impacted his baseball related activities at all pic.twitter.com/UuyC2ATyyA
Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.
If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.
The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.
I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.
Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Let’s have some fun and look at a couple of plus-money dogs that could be worth a wager Tuesday night—all odds according to DraftKings.
Braves ML +145 at DraftKings
Sure, the Braves are at home, and yes, Reynaldo Lopez has been excellent to start the season, but +145 for the Red Sox to pull off the upset looks mighty fine to me.
Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he has been excellent this year. If you’re a fantasy baseball enthusiast, you probably already know this. He was one of my favorite sleepers heading into the season and became a waiver wire must-add some time ago.
But I digress.
Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford on April 5, 2024.
Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Crawford has a 1.56 ERA this season and isn’t allowing hard contact. His 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the top 3% of the league.
The Braves have scored the second-most runs per game this season (5.09), but their bats have been cold for the past two weeks. They have managed only 3.18 runs per game across the past two weeks of play. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams.
The Red Sox have averaged 4.92 runs per game across the last two weeks of play, ranking seventh in MLB.
The public will be all on the Braves bouncing back at home. After all, the Braves are 11-4 this season when they are the home favorite. It’s tempting to back the home team, but the +145 is even more enticing.
Houston Astros ML +105 at DraftKings
The Yankees swept Houston in the first series of the season at Minute Maid, and now they even get home-field advantage.
So, why are we backing the Houston Astros, whose bullpen has blown nine saves?
Justin Verlander.
Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander takes the mound Tuesday.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Verlander has been sharp since returning from the IL, allowing only four earned runs across three starts and 17 1/3 innings pitched. Not only that, but this Yankees lineup is hitting a collective .158 and slugging a mere .354 lifetime vs. Verlander.
Both teams have hit well recently, and yes, Juan Soto seems to be Houston’s daddy, but for the plus-money payout, I’m willing to bet the road team comes out on top in a low-scoring affair Tuesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
