ACC Men’s Preseason Rankings, Postseason Outlook

As part of its 2022–23 men’s basketball preseason coverage, Sports Illustrated is rolling out previews for each of the top 10 conferences. Next up is the ACC.

The ACC caught plenty of flak last season for its regular-season performance, then silenced the hate by sending three teams to the Elite Eight, two to the Final Four and one to the title game. So what’s the truth about this league? The ACC was likely not as bad as the national narrative made it out to be around Feb. 1 but still had certain issues that some will forget because of that successful March.

In a world without Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski roaming the sidelines, the ACC needs more from big brands like Louisville, Virginia and Florida State if it wants to be considered a premier hoops league again. The outlook is better this season than it was at this time last year.

More Previews: A-10 | AAC | Mountain West | WCC

SI’s picks for …

Player of the Year: Armando Bacot, North Carolina

Newcomer of the Year: Dariq Whitehead, Duke

Dark-Horse Team: Notre Dame

First-Team All-Conference:

Caleb Love (North Carolina)
Isaiah Wong (Miami)
Jayden Gardner (Virginia)
Armando Bacot (North Carolina)
Dereck Lively II (Duke)

What will UNC do for an encore after its surprising run to the national title game?

Mitchell Leff/USA TODAY Sports

SI’s predicted order of finish:

1. North Carolina

With four starters back from a team that was oh-so-close to winning it all a season ago, this year has a title-or-bust energy for the Tar Heels. A dominant interior force in Armando Bacot, one of the better point guards in the sport in RJ Davis and a dynamic shotmaker in Caleb Love form the best nucleus in the sport, and coach Hubert Davis can round out that starting five with lockdown defender Leaky Black and top transfer Pete Nance, whose versatility and skill level may make him even more valuable than Brady Manek was. The Heels have to prove that their March improvements on the defensive end weren’t an anomaly, but this group is deeper and more talented than it was a season ago and has all the necessary components to cut down the nets in Houston.

Postseason Projection: Title Contender

2. Duke

Jon Scheyer’s first team as coach is loaded with talent. How Scheyer, the 35-year-old tasked with the impossible job of following Mike Krzyzewski in Durham, navigates running the day-to-day remains an open question, but he has certainly made a strong impression thus far in recruiting and staff hiring decisions. This year’s Duke team will be young, with heavy reliance on freshmen Dariq Whitehead, Dereck Lively II, Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor, though the Devils do have some much-needed veterans in Jeremy Roach and Illinois transfer Jacob Grandison. Getting consistent shotmaking from Proctor and Grandison next to Roach is key if this team wants to reach its ceiling, though having Lively as a rim protector gives Duke the potential for an elite defense.

Postseason Projection: Title Contender

3. Virginia

It’s wise not to bet against Tony Bennett when he has a veteran team, and that’s exactly what the Cavaliers have in 2022–23. All five starters are in at least their second year in the program, including all-league forward Jayden Gardner, who really came into his own down the stretch. In his final 15 games a season ago, Gardner averaged 17 points and six rebounds on 48% shooting. The Cavs should also return to being among the nation’s elite on defense after some struggles early last season: More minutes for Kadin Shedrick transforms this unit, and more system knowledge for Gardner and Armaan Franklin should also help.

Postseason Projection: Safe to Dance

4. Miami

Coming off the program’s best NCAA tournament finish in advancing all the way to the Elite Eight, Jim Larrañaga brings in a strong crop of newcomers to make another deep run possible. Virtually everyone in the sport wanted K-State transfer Nijel Pack, whose shooting touch and ability to play with or without the ball makes him a seamless fit in Coral Gables. Meanwhile, the Canes solidified the frontcourt with the addition of Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier. Omier built a reputation in the Sun Belt as one of the most dominant rebounders in mid-major basketball, and while his offensive game may drop off some at a higher level, his ability to crash the glass shouldn’t. Pack, Omier, returning all-conference wing Isaiah Wong and versatile forward Jordan Miller should have Miami back in the Big Dance.

Postseason Projection: Safe to Dance

5. Florida State

Leonard Hamilton is betting on internal development over wholesale roster turnover after a disappointing 17–14 campaign a season ago. Will that bet pay off? Most of it rides on the development of sophomores Matthew Cleveland and Jalen Warley, who had uneven rookie campaigns in Tallahassee. Cleveland looked the part of a future star at times but was somewhat inefficient and made just six of his 34 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Warley appeared to be in over his head on a team that could have really used his playmaking skills. Taking care of the ball better this season will be a must. If that duo takes steps forward, this Florida State group could be incredibly dangerous thanks to its incredible length and athleticism at every position.

Postseason Projection: Safe to Dance

6. Notre Dame

There’s a paradox at the center of this Notre Dame team in 2022–23: A team with six graduate students on the roster will have its ceiling determined by freshmen. Much like last season with Blake Wesley, the Fighting Irish bring in a highly touted youngster in the backcourt in JJ Starling, who could be the offensive focal point for Mike Brey’s club. It’s unfair to expect the same level of production from Starling as Brey got from Wesley, but the freshman needs to be a difference-maker. Another freshman who’ll be key: Ven-Allen Lubin, an athletic frontcourt player on a team whose major weakness on paper is athleticism and physicality.

Postseason Projection: On the Bubble

7. Virginia Tech

The Hokies’ run to the ACC tournament title a season ago was huge for what Mike Young is building in Blacksburg. Three starters depart, but this program feels like it’s in a good place entering Young’s fourth year. Elite role players Justyn Mutts and Hunter Cattoor may have to do more in 2022–23, but watch out for breakout campaigns from young guards Sean Pedulla and Darius Maddox in the backcourt. The biggest loss came up front with the departure of star two-way big Keve Aluma. Wright State transfer Grant Basile may be able to replicate much of Aluma’s production offensively, but expect a drop-off on defense at that spot.

Postseason Projection: On the Bubble

8. Syracuse

The Orange were incredibly hard to guard a season ago because of their collective ability to shoot the three, but a lack of length and athleticism led to defensive woes that kept Syracuse well off the NCAA tournament bubble. This year’s group likely won’t be as dynamic offensively without Buddy Boeheim and Cole Swider, but it should be far more well-rounded. Freshman guard Judah Mintz will have a lot on his plate sharing a backcourt with veteran Joseph Girard III, while other young players like Chris Bunch and Benny Williams should also help in Jim Boeheim’s 2–3 zone. A fully healthy Jesse Edwards up front is also a big reason for optimism.

Postseason Projection: NIT Bound

Payne will look to right the ship at Louisville.

By Pat McDonogh/Courier Journal/USA TODAY Network

9. Louisville

It’s hard to figure out exactly what to make of this Louisville team in Year 1 under Kenny Payne. There’s certainly talent on this roster, and a lot among this current crop of Cardinals are better than they showed in a chaotic last season that included a mid-year coaching change. But Louisville also has only two true ballhandlers on the roster: returnee El Ellis, who had 51 assists and 45 turnovers a season ago, and three-star freshman Fabio Basili. I’d feel much better about this group if Payne had landed a guard or two in the transfer portal, but the athleticism and physicality up front should cause some problems for ACC foes.

Postseason Projection: NIT Bound

10. Clemson

Brad Brownell’s seat is hot, but the longtime Tigers coach has been here before and found a way out of it. Can he get Clemson back into the postseason mix this year and extend his tenure? He has a centerpiece up front in PJ Hall, provided that the 6’10” junior is healthy after a knee injury ate up most of his offseason. The bigger question is at point guard, where Brownell bucked the portal and instead is relying on some combination of freshmen Dillon Hunter and Josh Beadle and veterans Alex Hemenway and Chase Hunter. “Point guard by committee” is always a scary thing to bet on.