Game 3 of the NBA Finals won’t decide the Boston Celtics-Dallas Mavericks series, but there are 1.5 million reasons to care about it for one bettor.
A $1.5 million wager came in on Boston to win Game 3 of the Finals and take a 3-0 series lead at Hard Rock Bet. The Celtics are underdogs in this game (+105 for this bet, +114 at DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday morning), just the second time they’ve been underdogs in the last five months.
If the Celtics win, this bettor will win over $3 million!
Boston has not been an underdog all postseason, and it actually hasn’t been favored by fewer than 6.5 points in any game. Here’s a quick look at the latest odds.
Boston’s odds have gone from +2 to +2.5 over the last 24 hours with the news that Kristaps Porzingis has a new leg injury and is now questionable for Game 3.
It’s been reported that Porzingis will attempt to play, but it’s possible that he’s either unable to go or not nearly as effective due to the injury.
Boston has been dominant on the road this postseason, going 6-0 straight up — which is a great sign for this bettor.
Not only that, but the Celtics have spent most of the playoffs without Porzingis, and yet they’ve only lost two total games.
Oddsmakers are giving Dallas the edge at home in Game 3, but this bettor could end up with an insanely huge pay day if Boston goes up 3-0 on Wednesday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic walks on to a basketball court, he immediately becomes a threat to put up a triple-double.
In six years in the NBA, Doncic has been nothing short of a triple-double machine. He is already tied for eighth all-time in that category with 77ā18 more than Hall of Fame forward Larry Bird, and 49 more than Hall of Fame guard Michael Jordan.
As he makes his NBA Finals debut, it's worth looking back at the history of players reaching double figures in three of basketball's five major counting statistics (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) on the sport's biggest stage.
A triple-double, in basketball, is when a player hits three of the following statistical benchmarks in a single game: 10 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, 10 blocks or 10 steals. Hitting two is a more common double-double, while hitting four is an extraordinarily rare quadruple-double.
The NBA record for most career triple-doubles is held by Los Angeles Clippers guard Russell Westbrook with 199.
Since the advent of the NBA Finals, 23 players are known to have accomplished the feat, per StatMuse.
PLAYER
NUMBER OF TRIPLE-DOUBLES
LeBron James, Heat/Cavaliers/Lakers
11
Magic Johnson, Lakers
8
Draymond Green, Warriors
3
Larry Bird, Celtics
2
Jimmy Butler, Heat
2
Wilt Chamberlain, 76ers
2
Bob Cousy, Celtics
2
Walt Frazier, Knicks
2
NIkola JokiÄ, Nuggets
2
Bill Russell, Celtics
2
Charles Barkley, Suns
1
Elgin Baylor, Lakers
1
Dave Cowens, Celtics
1
Stephen Curry, Warriors
1
Tim Duncan, Spurs
1
Kevin Durant, Warriors
1
Jason Kidd, Nets
1
Jamal Murray, Nuggets
1
Scottie Pippen, Bulls
1
Rajon Rondo, Celtics
1
Wes Unseld, Bullets
1
Jerry West, Lakers
1
James Worthy, Lakers
1
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, with 11. James is the only player to accomplish the feat with three different teams, having registered triple-doubles with the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Lakers. He is also one of three players, along with ex-Los Angeles guard Jerry West and forward James Worthy, to record a triple-double in Game 7 of the Finals.
James spread his triple-doubles out, too: he recorded one in his much-maligned 2011 Finals, one in the 2012 Finals, two in the 2013 Finals, two in the 2015 Finals, one in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals, two in the 2017 Finals, one in the 2018 Finals, and one in the 2020 Finals.
After a week off, the NBA returns for the Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics matchup in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.
Boston ā the favorite in the series ā comes into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite after Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and company rolled through the Eastern Conference, going 12-2 to reach the Finals.
The Mavericks have been a little more battle-tested, but they flexed their muscle in the Western Conference Finals to close the Minnesota Timberwolves out in five games behind four games of 32 points or more from Luka Doncic.
Dallas has struggled in Game 1s in the Jason Kidd era, going 1-5 straight up, but 6.5 points is quite the spread for an opening game in the Finals. Can Boston, who had the No. 1 net rating in the regular season ā and so far in the playoffs ā show why itās the favorite on Thursday?
Hereās our full betting preview with the latest odds, key players to watch and a best bet for Game 1:
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Mavericks Injury Report
Celtics Injury Report
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic: The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games. Luka really came on in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in all four of Dallasā wins, and he is going to be the main focus for Bostonās defense in Game 1.
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Jayson Tatum has not shot the ball well in the postseason ā 44.2 percent from the field, 29.0 percent from 3 ā but heās made an impact elsewhere averaging over 10 rebounds and five assists per game. Tatum didnāt play his best in his first NBA Finals appearance in 2022, but the Celtics star has a better team around him ā and that experience to lean on ā in this series.
Boston deserves a little more respect for its run to the Finals, even if it faced a few banged-up teams along the way.
The Cās needed just 14 games to get through the East, winning in blowouts against Miami and Cleveland as well as taking three games against the Indiana Pacers where the Pacers had a 90 percent win probability or higher in the fourth quarter of three of the four games.
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The Cās also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kiddās team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
Iām worried about Dallasā role players and whether or not theyāll make enough shots for key defenders like Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington to stay on the floor for the majority of the game. Boston, on the other hand, is going to be even deeper with Kristaps Porzingis likely back in action.
Iāll lay the points with the Cās in Game 1.
Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 ā on June 6 ā is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Iām taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era ā something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, letās discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that Iāve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavsā roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break ā which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so itās going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The Cās have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. Itās hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Bostonās dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isnāt crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericksā most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet heās +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. Itās tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know heās going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers donāt seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe weāre in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back ā and it seems like he is trending in that direction ā both teams will also be as healthy as theyāve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Bostonās advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the Cās havenāt faced yet, but to say Boston isnāt battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent ā the Indiana Pacers ā had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, thatās impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallasā role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series ā and they have for most of the playoffs ā but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KPās 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallasā offense doesnāt have the ability to spread the floor like Bostonās does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I donāt think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celticsā ability to win on the road in this postseason ā and past postseasons ā with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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