The Dodgers and Braves Are Getting Outplayed

By the end of tonight, the top two teams in the National League could be eliminated from the postseason at the hands of their two division foes. If this happens, it won’t be because the Dodgers and Braves were victims of bad luck. No, simply, it will be because they were outplayed.

The Phillies, who finished in third place and 14 games behind the defending champs in the NL East, have pummeled Atlanta’s pitching while mostly playing uncharacteristically clean defense and mostly getting reliable contributions from their typically unreliable bullpen. Philadelphia has held the Braves to a total of seven runs in the three games (2.33 per game), while the Phillies have scored more than twice that (16 runs).

In their two wins, the Padres, who finished a whopping 22 games behind the Dodgers in the West, have beaten Los Angeles at their own game. The formula that has made the Dodgers the most dangerous team in the league over the last decade:

1. Strong starting pitching
2. Nasty middle-to-late-inning relievers who seemingly came out of nowhere
3. One of the best closers of his era
4. MVP performance from a future Hall of Famer
5. Consistent production from the bottom of the lineup

Yu Darvish (5 IP, 3 ER, 7 K) and Blake Snell (5 ⅓ IP, 1 ER, 6 K) have contained a Los Angeles lineup that led the majors with 5.23 runs per game. The San Diego bullpen has not allowed a run over 13 innings in the series, with Josh Hader closing out the two wins. Manny Machado is slashing .300/.462/.700 with a home run while dazzling on defense. Padres center fielder Trent Grisham and catcher Austin Nola, their No. 8 and 9 hitters, have combined to go 6-for-19 (.316) over the first three games.

Meanwhile, Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner, who is batting .308 with two home runs, has been their best hitter in the series. Yet, his sloppy and hesitant play both in the field and on the basepaths have cost L.A. in a tight series; each of the first three games have been decided by no more than two runs. Lefthanders Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw, the Game 1 and 2 starters, respectively, performed well enough within the Dave Roberts playoff pitching plan (Urías won his start), but Tony Gonsolin, who in Game 3 made just his second start in the last seven weeks, couldn’t get through the second inning. The bullpen has been quite good (three runs, two earned) across the three games, though that doesn’t matter much when the San Diego ‘pen has held the L.A. offense scoreless.

For as well as the Phillies and Padres have played, let’s be careful not to write off the Braves and Dodgers just yet. Neither Atlanta nor Los Angeles has lost three straight games against their respective NLDS opponent this season. The Dodgers hadn’t lost back-to-back games to San Diego until last night.

And yet, that doesn’t erase what we’ve seen so far in the two series: The Phillies and Padres are outplaying the two best teams in the league.

Before we get into the rest of our newsletter, I wanted to mention the thrill of watching Guardians third baseman José Ramírez run the bases in the 10th inning of yesterday’s 4–2 win over the Yankees. Facing Jameson Taillon, pitching in relief for the first time in his career, Ramírez blooped a base hit into no man’s land in shallow left field. He aggressively rounded first and booked it toward second, daring New York to try and throw him out. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was the one who picked up the ball, took the bait and fired off target to second. Ramírez didn’t hesitate as he neared second; instead, he kept running, realizing that Donaldson’s throw was errant and that nobody was covering third. He made it safely and scored when the next batter, Óscar González, hit a bloop single.

“José is probably the only player in baseball that ends up on third with that ball,” Guardians manager Terry Francona said. “That’s just—he got that coming out of the box and he had the wherewithal knowing he could get to third. That was pretty remarkable.”

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1. THE OPENER

“Six years, one elbow surgery, one release and one big season as a closer later, [Robert] Suárez finally agreed to sign with [A.J.] Preller and the Padres last Dec. 1—just hours after Preller signed Luis García, a reliever from the Dominican Republic who was turning 35, had been released twice and would be pitching for his eighth organization.

“Such moves that almost no one noticed right before the lockout are part of the reasons why the Dodgers and their 111 wins—the fourth most ever—are on the brink of becoming a footnote. The Padres won NLDS Game 3 Friday night, 2–1, with another impressive display of baseball at its cleanest, especially when it comes to relief pitching.”

That’s Tom Verducci, writing in his column from last night’s big Padres win over the Dodgers. He details what has made San Diego so good in this series, and why L.A. is one loss away from winter.

Padres Pull Out All the Stops to Stifle Dodgers by Tom Verducci
San Diego pushed L.A. to the brink in NLDS Game 3 behind a masterful bullpen performance.

2. ICYMI

Let’s get you caught up on our other stories from yesterday.

The Cathartic Spike of the Phillies’ Big Night by Emma Baccellieri
Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins have experienced nearly all the heartache and false hope of the last decade. They were the brightest stars when playoff baseball returned to Philadelphia.

The Late Poetics of Freddie Freeman by Jeremy Collins
From Atlanta to L.A., the sweet-swinging lefty heals and enchants and connects us—to Hank Greenberg and Roberto Clemente and Dale Murphy … and to family long gone.

Yordan Alvarez Leaves the Mariners Helpless in Houston by Matt Martell
Sometimes, a hitter is so locked in that there is absolutely nothing you can do.

And then, before playoff baseball returns to Seattle for the first time in 21 years, here’s Greg Bishop’s story about the night the Mariners clinched a wild-card berth.

‘Let’s F—ing Party’: The Mariners Finally End Their 21-Year Playoff Drought by Greg Bishop
After two decades of bad decisions and bad bounces and bad play, it’s time for Seattle baseball to celebrate again.

3. WORTH NOTING from Tom Verducci

It’s time to give credit to Padres manager Bob Melvin, who in replacing rookie manager Jayce Tingler has provided a talented club with the dugout experience and leadership the team needed.

Remember how San Diego collapsed last season? When the hint of another fade barely surfaced this year, Melvin simply would not let it happen. On Sept. 14, the Padres were shut out by Arizona, their fourth loss in five games. Their wild-card lead over Milwaukee was down to half a game. Melvin called out his team after the loss—something younger managers never dare to do, lest they risk “losing” their players.

“Very, very frustrating,” Melvin said. “Didn’t even feel like we put up a fight. Can’t play this way, especially this time of year … The way we’re going about it right now does not look good to me.”

The next night San Diego scored 12 runs in what was the start of ripping off five wins in a row. Since Melvin’s outburst, the Padres are 15–9—and one win away from their first NLCS since 1998.

Melvin’s deft touch with his team and especially his pitcher usage—leaving Blake Snell for a third time around, pushing the right bullpen buttons night after night—should not be overlooked.

4. W2W4 from Matt Martell

Today might be the last day of the year that we have four baseball games. So, let’s sit back and enjoy every second of it.

First, at 2:07 p.m. ET on FS1, the defending champion Braves face elimination against the Phillies in that “so-called hostile environment” at Citizens Bank Park. Atlanta turns to its 38-year-old veteran Charlie Morton, who is making his first playoff start since he broke his fibula and continued to pitch in Game 1 of the World Series. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for Philadelphia, after having pitched an inning in relief in Game 2 on Wednesday.

Next, Seattle hosts its first postseason game since 2001, when the Mariners and Astros meet in Game 3 of their ALDS matchup (4:07 p.m. ET on TBS). Houston leads the series, 2–0, after Yordan Alvarez hit a game-winning home run in each of the first two games. Tasked with containing Alvarez is rookie righthander George Kirby, who went 8–5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts this season. The Astros send Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound.

Later, the Yankees head to Cleveland to face the Guardians in Game 3 of the ALDS, with the series knotted, 1–1. Luis Severino, who starts for New York tonight, has been electric since returning from the injured list on Sept. 21 (2–0, 1.69 ERA). He’ll face Cleveland righthander Triston McKenzie, who started Game 2 of the AL wild-card series against the Rays. In that start, he fired six scoreless innings, allowed two hits and two walks and struck out eight. First pitch is slated for 7:37 p.m. on TBS.

And finally, the Padres look to knock out the 111-win Dodgers in NLDS Game 4 at Petco Park, with San Diego starter Joe Musgrove set to throw his first pitch at 9:37 p.m. ET on FS1. This will be his first appearance since he eliminated the Mets on Sunday night. He was so dominant in that start that Buck Showalter made the umpires check Musgrove for sticky substances, which led to the bizarre scene in which umpire Alfonso Márquez rubbed Musgrove’s ear, in the workplace, on national television, just because the pitcher was so good at his job. (As I explained in Monday’s newsletter, Musgrove clEARly wasn’t cheating.) Los Angeles sends All-Star lefthander Tyler Anderson (15–5, 2.57 ERA) to the mound.

5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri

The most iconic at bat in Philadelphia last night belonged to Rhys Hoskins. But be sure to give some shine to the man he drove in from second: Bryson Stott. The rookie came to the plate with one on and one out against a laboring Spencer Strider. He quickly fell behind in the count, 1–2. And then he started battling back—fouling off one, two, three, four fastballs in a row. Finally, trying to end the at bat, Strider turned to his slider. Stott was ready: He lined it into right field. “It was just to be able to stay on his fastball,” Stott said, “and realize he’s still got that slider.” No, it wasn’t as flashy as the home run that followed from Hoskins. But the focus and grit required to make it through and push up the pitch count? It was huge.

That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at [email protected].