After providing perhaps the highlight of the wild-card round with their remarkable seven-run comeback, the Mariners will be thrown from the frying pan to the fire as they head to Houston for the ALDS. Seattle will face presumed AL Cy Young Award favorite Justin Verlander in Game 1 of the series, with talented righthander Logan Gilbert opposing him.
The Astros won 12 out of the 19 regular season matchups against the Mariners this year, including six of the last seven (though the two sides haven’t played each other since the end of July). At stake is a sixth straight ALCS appearance for Houston, while Seattle is searching for its first since 2001 and fourth in franchise history.
As the best-of-five series gets underway, here are the three things that will decide the outcome of the matchup.
1. How will Seattle’s rotation hold up?
In his start last week against the Blue Jays, Castillo showed why he was the best pitcher traded at the deadline and why the Mariners signed him to a five-year, $108 million extension.
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Luis Castillo shined in Game 1 against Toronto, firing 7 ⅓ scoreless frames on six hits (all singles), no walks and five strikeouts.He’ll likely start Game 2 in Houston after Gilbert gets the ball in Game 1. But reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray faltered against the Blue Jays on Saturday, and he was wobbly down the stretch in September. Worse, he was absolutely shelled in three outings against the Astros this season, giving up 13 runs across 10 ⅔ innings with seven walks and six homers allowed.
If manager Scott Servais opts to keep him in the rotation, Ray would be set up to pitch in Game 3 at home. If it’s not Ray, then it likely would be George Kirby who gets the nod. The rookie faced the Astros one time this season, lasting four innings with two runs allowed and seven strikeouts on July 31. Marco Gonzalez could also be an option, as the veteran lefty had a 3.81 ERA across four starts vs. Houston this season (though he did allow six homers in 26 innings).
2. Can the Mariners contain Yordan Alvarez?
In short, no, because nobody has contained Alvarez this season. The imposing slugger has tormented Mariners pitching in particular this year, batting .327/.438/.654 with five home runs in 64 plate appearances. He finished the season on a tear as well, posting a 1.118 OPS with six home runs and 18 extra-base hits since the start of September.
Of course, Alvarez is not the only problem Seattle’s pitchers will have to face this week—he’s just the biggest. In all, Houston has seven hitters with at least 250 plate appearances who have posted a wRC+ that’s better than league average (100), and five of them are above 125. There are a lot of different ways this Astros lineup can hurt you, but minimizing the impact that Alvarez can have on the series will go a long way toward an upset for the Mariners.
Alvarez is the most dangerous slugger in the loaded Astros lineup. His .613 slugging percentage this season ranked second in the majors, behind Aaron Judge.
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3. Will the Astros bullpen continue its dominant ways?
The Astros had the lowest bullpen ERA (2.80) in the majors this season, never running out of electric arms to enter the game in the most crucial situations. The group was second in Win Probability Added, showing a knack for coming through in the most high-leverage situations, and had the highest strikeout rate (28.3%) and second-lowest home run rate (0.65 HR/9) in the league.
What makes Houston’s bullpen so lethal is the bevy of reliable options. Of the seven relief pitchers who appeared in 25 or more games this season, five of them had sub-3.00 ERAs: Rafael Montero (2.37), Ryne Stanek (1.15), Bryan Abreu (1.94), Ryan Pressly (2.98) and Seth Martinez (2.09).
If Seattle’s rotation runs into any issues and the Mariners find themselves in a hole late in the game, this is the group that the lineup will have to overcome to make it happen. Seattle has more than enough offensive firepower to get it done, but it will be a tall task against a unit that had the fourth-fewest blown saves (16) on the season.
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