Welcome to the NFL offseason, where receivers get paid lots of money (just ask Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins), the NFL continues to push for an 18-game season, the league and NFLPA discuss ways to ruin the offseason calendar and teams continue to go through their OTAs and mandatory minicamps.
So we asked our MMQB staff of NFL experts to answer a series of eight questions. Today, they’re going to weigh in on the offseason’s best coaching move.
Let’s get to their answers as we get closer to the NFL taking a break before July training camps.
Matt Verderame: Los Angeles Chargers hiring Jim Harbaugh
Harbaugh isn’t the type to come into a situation, sit back and assess. Instead, he’s going to quickly turn the culture around, something desperately needed in Los Angeles after the Brandon Staley era.
While the Chargers are somewhat low on talent after moving several veteran players including receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Harbaugh’s influence will be obvious. Los Angeles might not be a contender in 2024, but it won’t give away games as it has in the past, instead forcing opponents to win the game and not simply avoid losing it.
The big question for the Chargers is how long it will take to get a quality roster around Harbaugh and quarterback Justin Herbert. Once that happens, they should compete in the AFC West with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Gilberto Manzano: CarolinaPanthers hiring Dave Canales, retaining Ejiro Evero
Canales stays in the NFC South as coach of the Panthers after having the offensive coordinator job with the Buccaneers. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Harbaugh is probably the right answer, but I can make a compelling case for the two-for-one coaching special the Carolina Panthers pulled off in the offseason.
Panthers owner David Tepper finally got something right after he hired Dave Canales as head coach and retained Ejiro Evero as defensive coordinator. Evero could have easily left after the dysfunctional season in Carolina, but Canales and Tepper convinced him to stay after the defensive guru didn’t land a head-coaching opportunity. (He probably will in the near future.) Continuity should help a Panthers’ defense needing plenty of help outside of stud defensive tackle Derrick Brown.
The arrival of Canales should put Bryce Young on the right track after a rocky rookie season, too. He helped Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield reignite their careers during coaching stops with the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
If the Panthers’ offensive line holds up, Young and new weapons Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson could do wonders in Canales’s offensive scheme.
Conor Orr: Harbaugh
I agree with Matt. I think Harbaugh was the move of the offseason because it offers the highest degree of potential success with the largest sample size of prior success and it also signified that the Spanos family was finally willing to spend additional funding on the kind of moves that could separate the Chargers from the rest of the pack.
We can also like different hires for different reasons, right? I think the Dan Quinn hire was smart because the Washington Commanders needed a calming presence after finally fumigating the building of all things Dan Snyder. I thought the organization’s anonymous bashing of Ben Johnson when Johnson decided he did not want to pursue the opportunity was reprehensible.
I thought the Mike Macdonald hire was smart, too, because he gives Seattle the best chance out of any of the available coaches to match wits with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. Does that mean he will? No. That doesn’t mean it’s not worth a shot.
I thought the Canales hire was also good because it was the best option at the moment for Bryce Young.
Albert Breer: Harbaugh
Morris is getting a second chance at being an NFL head coach. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
I’m with Matt and Conor, too. This can’t not be Harbaugh. And my reasoning goes beyond the wins and losses, though the fact that he’s got the fifth-best winning percentage of all-time (behind Guy Chamberlin, John Madden, George Allen and Vince Lombardi) doesn’t hurt.
To me, it’s that he’s got this rare thing where his brand of football, the identity of his teams, has traveled everywhere with him. From Stanford to San Francisco to Michigan, his teams featured powerful offensive lines, dominant run games, efficient quarterbacks, tough skill guys, and smart, versatile defenses that are, similar to the offenses, particularly great up front. I’m betting on it happening again, and all of it has a chance to supercharge Justin Herbert as a quarterback.
But, twist my arm, and make me go somewhere else with this one, and I’d take Raheem Morris with the Atlanta Falcons or Brian Callahan with the Tennessee Titans—Morris because coaches I respect most believe his second shot (after 12 seasons to learn from his mistakes) will be spectacular, and Callahan because he’s so perfectly suited for today’s NFL. Also, those two happen to be among the smartest coaches I’ve dealt with over 19 seasons covering the league.
Many were ready to pencil in the Atlanta Falcons as the NFC South winners for their 2024 NFL playoff predictions. That might have changed after the Falcons made their stunning selection of Michael Penix Jr. in the 2024 NFL draft.
The signal-caller out of Washington should help the Falcons in the future, but he didn’t make them better in the present, allowing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to close the gap on the talented Falcons, who added immediate impact players with their first-round selections.
Kirk Cousins, who was signed in free agency to a four-year, $180 million deal, was left scratching his head at the Falcons’ first-round pick. But a few other teams in the NFC also made questionable moves during last week’s three-day draft as well.
Let’s examine how each NFC team did in the 2024 draft by ranking them from 16 to 1. Don’t expect a surprise for No. 16 …
16. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons used the No. 8 pick on Penix, who’s ready to start now after six years of college experience, including guiding Washington to the national title game. Instead of Penix following in the paths of Russell Wilson and Brock Purdy starting as rookies, he will have to wait his turn for a year or two, maybe three. And let’s not forget that Cousins’s contract includes guarantees of $90 million in the first two years with a $10 million option in Year 3.
The Falcons didn’t want to wait on a quarterback-succession plan, opting for what the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers did with Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love despite not having a deep roster as those teams did. The Falcons, who haven’t made the postseason since 2017, dismissed the present for the future and passed on adding an immediate contributor with their first-round pick. Now the pressure is on second-round defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro and third-round edge rusher Bralen Trice to produce right away.
15. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks deserve credit for adding defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, even though they have committed plenty of money to Leonard Williams and Dre’Mont Jones. Murphy fits the scheme of new coach Mike Macdonald, but now the Seahawks have a dilemma with a log jam at the position. Murphy will likely receive starter’s snaps because he excels at stopping the run, a weakness of the Seahawks the past few seasons.
Without a second-round pick, the rest of the Seahawks’ draft class seems a bit underwhelming. But the Seahawks have plenty of talent throughout the roster. Perhaps all they need for a bounce-back season is for Macdonald to get the star-studded defense on the same page, which became easier with the selection of Murphy.
14. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers might have prioritized need more than taking the best player available when it came to adding a wide receiver. They found their physical outside receiver, selecting 6'3," 227-pound Xavier Legette with the last pick in the first round. Carolina took Legette over Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman and Adonai Mitchell. Time will tell if the Panthers selected the right receiver for Bryce Young and new coach Dave Canales.
Taking the best running back prospect in Jonathon Brooks should give Carolina a balanced attack after a dismal ground game in 2023. Overall, the Panthers added help for Young and found a way to gain a first-round pick.
13. Dallas Cowboys
Judging from the social media criticism, the Cowboys’ draft class likely received a low grade from most football pundits. But it wasn’t as bad as many made it seem because they prioritized the offensive line. Sure, the Cowboys haven’t made it to a conference title game this millennium, but they became perennial playoff contenders because they rarely neglected the trenches, drafting Zack Martin and Tyler Smith. They quickly found their Tyron Smith replacement with the first-round selection of Tyler Guyton, a left tackle with plenty of upside.
Dallas also continued loading up on edge rushers, adding Marshawn Kneeland in the second round to fill the void of Dorance Armstrong, who left in free agency to join the Washington Commanders. It’s never a bad draft strategy to add offensive and defensive linemen. But the Cowboys failed to address their needs at running back and inside linebacker. They also could have used another receiver to go with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.
12. New York Giants
Perhaps the Giants should be ranked lower than 12th on this list, but they landed standout wideout Malik Nabers with their No. 6 pick. Nabers has the makings of the next Odell Beckham Jr. or Ja’Marr Chase. Nabers’s explosiveness will expand the playbook for coach Brian Daboll, making him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
Daniel Jones gets another shot to prove himself with a dangerous downfield threat in Nabers—unless you’re buying the hype of Drew Lock possibly taking Jones’s job this summer. But the Giants likely know by now that Jones won’t ever reach elite QB status in the NFL. They had an opportunity to move up from No. 6 to third to select Drake Maye, but couldn’t come to a trade agreement with the New England Patriots.
11. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers passed on wide receivers who had more hype from the draft experts to select Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick. San Francisco deserves the benefit of the doubt because Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk weren’t high-profile prospects when the team selected them. The 49ers might be forced to decide between Samuel and Aiyuk because they have drafted so well in recent years and don’t have enough cap space to keep all of their star players.
San Francisco gave itself flexibility with the Samuel-Aiyuk dilemma by adding Pearsall, who should be ready to slide in as a starter if Samuel or Aiyuk leave during the 2025 offseason. The best teams create options and plan ahead.
10. Minnesota Vikings
If J.J. McCarthy was the target all along, the Vikings played this well by only trading up one spot to get him at No. 10 instead of moving into the top five to select the Michigan quarterback. But Minnesota took a risk by banking on the fifth quarterback taken in the draft. As history has shown, it’s rare when five quarterbacks from one draft class develop into legitimate franchise signal-callers.
The Vikings tried to trade three first-round picks to the Patriots for the right to draft Maye, who likely has the best skill set among all of the QB prospects. McCarthy's ceiling might not be as high as the others, but he proved at Michigan he can run an efficient offense and will now get to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. By not getting desperate for a quarterback, the Vikings also added Dallas Turner at No. 17 to pair with free-agent signing Jonathan Greenard.
9. Green Bay Packers
The Packers failed to add a top offensive tackle in last year’s draft, but they didn’t make that same mistake again, one they couldn’t afford because of the departure of David Bakhtiari. Jordan Morgan, the 25th pick, could compete for the left tackle job against Rasheed Walker, who filled in admirably for the injured Bakhtiari in 2023.
Morgan also has the flexibility to play guard, which could explain why the Packers chose him over Guyton, the Cowboys’ first-round pick. In the second round, the Packers took the first off-ball linebacker with Edgerrin Cooper. Perhaps the Texas A&M product could flourish as an immediate starter. Green Bay has invested plenty of draft picks in recent years on defensive players, but hasn’t received many positive returns.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Canales now calling the plays for Young, the Buccaneers needed to find another way to make life easier for Baker Mayfield, who received a lucrative contract extension after a career year with Canales as the offensive play-caller in Tampa Bay. They did that by drafting center Graham Barton with the No. 26 pick. On paper, the Bucs’ offensive line has come a long way since 2022, when the unit failed to protect Tom Brady during his final season.
With a stout offensive line, Mayfield is well positioned to prove his 2023 season was no fluke. Coach Todd Bowles’s defense got better with second-round selection Chris Braswell, who will join last year’s standout rookie edge rusher Yaya Diaby.
7. New Orleans Saints
The Saints had a sensational start to the draft, selecting offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry in the first and second rounds, respectively. New Orleans had concerns at tackle with Ryan Ramczyk’s injury issues and Trevor Penning’s struggles on the field. Now they have less problems with the arrival of Fuaga, arguably the best run blocker in the draft.
Fuaga probably will start at right tackle, but he would fix more problems if he’s able to play left tackle. The Penning experience hasn’t worked out and it might be better for New Orleans to move him as a backup tackle. As for McKinstry, it won’t be easy for him to earn a starting job, but he adds youth to a veteran-filled defense. The Saints need more draft picks to become cornerstone pieces to finally gain cap-space flexibility.
6. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals didn’t overthink it and took Marvin Harrison Jr., possibly the best prospect in the draft. Yes, the Cardinals have many needs and would have benefited from the extra picks had they traded out of the No. 4 spot. But you don’t pass on a wide receiver prospect as good as Harrison, who has drawn comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald Jr. and A.J. Green.
Kyler Murray will benefit from Harrison’s presence, as will offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who had impressive game plans in 2023 despite a poor roster. After taking the dominant Harrison, the Cardinals added Darius Robinson, who could be Arizona's best pass rusher this upcoming season. He’ll join a defensive unit lacking talent outside of safety Budda Baker.
5. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams filled defensive needs with two standout prospects. First, they took edge rusher Jared Verse to pair him with Byron Young, last year’s rookie standout. They followed that by moving up from No. 52 to 39 to select defensive tackle Braden Fiske, who impressed many at the Senior Bowl.
Fiske will have the pressure of filling the massive void left by the retirement of Aaron Donald, but he won’t have to do it alone because the Rams planned ahead. Last year, they drafted Young and defensive tackle Kobie Turner, who became a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. L.A. lost a legend in Donald, but now have four intriguing players on the defensive line. Also, the Rams were wise to select running back Blake Corum in the third round. He has a similar skill set to last year’s breakout star Kyren Williams. They should form a dominant duo, and Corum could help as a starter in case Williams deals with injuries again.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles neglected the secondary last offseason and it cost them during their end-of-season collapse. The secondary should be much improved after Philadelphia added cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and defensive back Cooper DeJean. Mitchell could soon take over as the team’s No. 1 outside cornerback because of his elite traits and athleticism. DeJean will probably flourish in Vic Fangio’s scheme because he can play cornerback and safety.
And it wouldn’t be a Howie Roseman draft without him taking at least one edge rusher. Third-round pick Jalyx Hunt has plenty of upside and could quickly find a rotational role behind Josh Sweat and Bryce Huff.
3. Detroit Lions
Similar to the Eagles, the Lions addressed their secondary needs with a pair of first-round defensive backs. Detroit gets the nod over Philadelphia because Terrion Arnold might be one of the safest picks in the draft. He’s a polished technician with a similar skill set to Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon. Arnold going at No. 24 could end up being the steal of the draft.
The Lions didn’t settle at cornerback and took Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in the second round. The Lions swung and missed on cornerback Cameron Sutton, who was released recently after being a top free-agent addition in 2023. Arnold should be a Day 1 starter, joining last year’s rookie sensation Brian Branch and veteran newcomer Carlton Davis III. It likely won’t take Rakestraw long to crack the cornerback rotation in Detroit.
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels is set up for long-term success after all of the savvy moves Washington has made in its first offseason with a new owner, GM and head coach.
Daniels received a talented tight end in Ben Sinnott, a second-round pick. Daniels also might have the luxury of playing with a much-improved defense. The Commanders’ first pick in the second round was defensive tackle Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, who was viewed by many as a first-round prospect. The Commanders’ second second-round pick was cornerback Mike Sainristil. Coach Dan Quinn now has enough talent to turn the Washington defense from one of the worst to a respectable unit in 2024.
1. Chicago Bears
The Bears could have two Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates after using their two top-10 picks on Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. On paper, GM Ryan Poles executed one of the best trades in recent years after flipping last year’s No. 1 pick to the Panthers for wide receiver DJ Moore and many draft picks, including two that turned into offensive tackle Darnell Wright and Williams.
But this trade won’t be remembered positively for years to come without Williams turning into an elite quarterback. The pressure is on the USC product, but the Bears have built an ideal surrounding for the top pick, with the trade for Keenan Allen and selection of Odunze, the savvy route router who can create plays on the outside and in the slot. Start the Bears’ hype train because they might be fun to watch with their two top-10 picks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have had the quietest offseason among the teams in the NFC South, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the reigning division champions are on the decline.
The Buccaneers could make it four consecutive division titles after retaining their key in-house free agents, including Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield. But the Atlanta Falcons, who had a fast start to the offseason, could be on the rise with the free-agent addition of Kirk Cousins.
The Falcons were viewed as clear favorites in the NFC South after adding Cousins to an offense that included Bijan Robison, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. But the gap might have closed after they used a first-round pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr., while their divisional rivals strengthened their respective rosters with top picks that weren’t used on signal-callers.
The New Orleans Saints drafted a quarterback (Spencer Rattler in the fifth round), but used their first-round pick on offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga to help Derek Carr.
The Carolina Panthers also prioritized their offseason to assist quarterback Bryce Young, but they still have a long way to go to catch up to the rest of the pack.
Here are grades and analysis for how the NFC South teams did this offseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offseason grade: B
Key additions: C Graham Barton, Edge Chris Braswell, OG Ben Bredeson, Edge Randy Gregory, S Jordan Whitehead
Key subtractions: CB Carlton Davis III, LB Devin White
Analysis: The Buccaneers avoided offseason splash moves and prioritized their core group, one that surprised in 2023 with Mayfield’s resurgence. Tampa Bay should again contend for the NFC South title after retaining Evans, Mayfield and safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who was hit with the franchise tag. Evans and Mayfield gained long-term extensions after helping the Buccaneers advance to the divisional round.
It’s not the flashiest roster, but the Buccaneers have talent throughout and continue to improve the offensive and defensive lines. Tom Brady might be jealous of the offensive line the Buccaneers have built for Mayfield over the past two seasons. Tampa Bay selected Graham Barton, possibly the best center in the draft, to join a group that made strides last season after failing to protect Brady in 2022.
The Buccaneers, however, took a risk handing Mayfield a three-year extension worth up to $115 million after one dynamic season in Tampa Bay. Mayfield, the former top pick of the Cleveland Browns, will also be without Dave Canales, the offensive coordinator who became the Panthers’ coach in the offseason. But the Buccaneers made many savvy moves to ensure Mayfield’s ’23 season wasn’t a fluke.
Key subtractions: RB Cordarrelle Patterson, QB Desmond Ridder, TE Jonnu Smith
Analysis: The Falcons quickly went from being NFC South favorites with Cousins to a team with quarterback concerns following the first-round selection of Penix. Not only did the Falcons create an awkward scenario, they failed to improve the 2024 squad by using their No. 8 pick on a player who might not play for a few seasons. Had the Falcons gone with the best player available, perhaps they would have gotten an A grade for the offseason and be viewed as NFC South favorites for longer than a month.
But the Falcons could still have the best team in the division if Cousins makes a full recovery from the torn Achilles he sustained last season with the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins will get to work with coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, two former Los Angeles Rams assistant coaches who had plenty of success under Sean McVay. With the Falcons having talented skill players, perhaps Cousins and a new coaching staff were the final pieces for Atlanta to clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2017. But they might have been viewed as Super Bowl contenders had they drafted one of the top edge rushers in the draft instead of Penix. Maybe Penix gets an opportunity to start a game or two in 2024 to impress and quiet the critics.
New Orleans Saints
Offseason grade: B-
Key additions: OL Taliese Fuaga, LB Willie Gay Jr., CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer Rattler, WR Cedrick Wilson Jr., Edge Chase Young
Key subtractions: S Marcus Maye, OG Andrus Peat, WR Michael Thomas, QB Jameis Winston
Analysis: With a veteran-filled roster, New Orleans balanced the present and the future after saying goodbye to key players and hello to prominent rookies. The Saints are far removed from the days of Drew Brees and Sean Payton, but they neglected the full rebuild route the past three seasons and missed the postseason every year in that span. The organization seems to have finally adjusted after parting with Michael Thomas, Marcus Maye and Andrus Peat. The moves they made provided some cap space flexibility for the Saints, something they haven’t had much of in recent years.
For the most part, the 2024 Saints should have a similar look to last season heading into Year 2 with Carr as the starting quarterback. Carr had mixed results in his first season in New Orleans, but played well in the final month and should have better protection with the arrival of Fuaga, a rugged run blocker who can play tackle and guard. But the Saints might be making a mistake by relying on Trevor Penning and Ryan Ramczyk as the starting tackles again. Penning has struggled since being a 2022 first-round pick and Ramczyk has dealt with injuries. If Carr gets time to operate, he’ll have Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed to hurt defenses downfield.
On defense, the team took a chance on Chase Young, who had a rocky 2023 season after being traded by the Commanders to the 49ers. But the move could pay off, with veteran defensive end Cameron Jordan needing help. New Orleans could have a foundational piece in second-round cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Carolina Panthers
Offseason grade: C+
Key additions: RB Jonathon Brooks, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, S Jordan Fuller, OG Robert Hunt, WR Diontae Johnson,LB Josey Jewell, WR Xavier Legette, OG Damien Lewis, Edge D.J. Wonnum
Key subtractions: S Vonn Bell, Edge Brian Burns, S Jeremy Chinn, Edge Yetur Gross-Matos, CB Donte Jackson, LB Frankie Luvu
Analysis: Let’s get the bad out of the way because there have been plenty of offseason positives for the worst team in the NFL last year. The Panthers’ rebuild project took a hit after they elected to trade Brian Burns to the New York Giants for two draft picks, neither in the first round. It’s been well documented that the Panthers had the opportunity to trade Burns in 2022 for multiple first-round picks. With that in mind, it was strange that the Panthers didn’t just keep Burns on the roster to continue building the defense with stud defensive tackle Derrick Brown, who cashed in this offseason with a lucrative contract extension.
The Panthers also spent money on the offensive side to assist Young, the 2023 No. 1 pick coming off a rough rookie season. Perhaps no offseason acquisition was more important than the hiring of Canales, the offensive guru who helped reignite the careers of Mayfield and Geno Smith. The Panthers added weapons and protection for Young, including the splash signing of guard Robert Hunt, whom the team might have overpaid for with a monster five-year, $100 million contract. Veteran wideout Adam Thielen won’t have to carry the team like he did last season, with the trade for Diontae Johnson and first-round selection of Xavier Legette. Also, the Panthers improved the poor ground game by using a second-round pick for running back Jonathon Brooks.
Offensively, the Panthers might have done enough this offseason to gain positive results from Young in Year 2. The defense, however, might not be able to replace the production of Burns. Newcomer veterans Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum will need to step up to help Brown and the rest of the defense.
The NFL offseason continues on but with teams gearing up for next season we have odds for who will make the postseason.
One of the most hotly contested divisions in the 2024 season is the NFC East, which features the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
The Eagles made a splash in free agency by adding running back Saquon Barkley as well as hiring former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Can the Eagles hold off the Cowboys in hopes of getting back on top of the division and make the postseason?
There will be plenty of heated races in the postseason in addition to the NFC East one mentioned above, including a crowded group in the AFC East and AFC North.
Below you will find the odds for each team to make the postseason in 2024.
There are a ton of quality teams heading into the season with the postseason in its sights.
Look at the AFC East, who have three teams projected to make the postseason in terms of implied probability greater than 50%. The Dolphins have an implied probability of 57.38%, the Bills are 62.69% and the Jets are slightly ahead, listed at 62.96%.
Elsewhere, the AFC North has three teams with heavy odds to contend for the postseason, with its longest shot, the Steelers at only +190 (34.48%). The Ravens (72.60%), Bengals (70.15%) and Browns (42.37%) all have more than a puncher's chance to make the postseason.
The NFC East race is for the division, but both are expected to make the postseason in a much weaker conference, will the two be able to hold up? The Eagles and Cowboys each have mandates to win and better hope to at least make the postseason in order to keep the status quo.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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