The first two rounds of the Memorial Tournament are in the books. It’s time to look ahead to the weekend.
If you want to find out the live odds to win ahead of Round 3, as well as a couple of golfers I’m aiming at, you can find those here.
In this article, we’re talking about a few Round 3 matchup bets, otherwise known as 2-ball bets. These are one-round wagers on a golfer to finish Saturday’s round with a lower score than their playing partner. Let’s dive into it.
If you’re looking for an underdog to bet on Saturday, there’s none I love more than Nick Dunlap against Matt Fitzpatrick. Dunlap has been sharp with his irons through the first two rounds, gaining an average of +2.59 strokes per round with his approach play through the first two rounds, the fourth-best in the tournament.
Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick’s irons continue to be a low point of his game. He’s losing -0.24 strokes per round with them in this event. His short game has dragged him into the weekend but Dunlap’s irons are a lot more sustainable.
At +150, Dunlap is absolutely worth a bet to get the job done.
Rory McIlroy -185 vs. Tony Finau Prediction
If you want to bet on Rory McIlroy but if you think Scottie Scheffler has this event in the bag, you can take McIlroy to finish with a lower score than his playing partner on Saturday, Tony Finau.
Both golfers enter the weekend at T7, but Finau hasn’t been playing as well as his current standing may suggest. His success has come from strong play around the greens, gaining an average of +1.52 strokes per round around the greens, which is almost unheard of. Meanwhile, he’s gaining just +0.78 per round with his approach and +0.21 per round with his putting.
McIlroy is playing a much more sustainable style of golf and his irons seem to be dialed in. -185 is a hefty price to pay, but he still holds plenty of great value against Finau on Saturday.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Last week: Jake Knapp won the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Notes: The tournament again leads off the Florida swing under a new name. Cognizant takes over as title sponsor of what previously was the Honda Classic. ... Rory McIlroy is playing to beef up his pre-Masters schedule. He last played the tournament in 2018. ... Six of the seven winners on the PGA Tour this year were outside the top 50 in the world ranking. The exception was Wyndham Clark, No. 10 when he won at Pebble Beach. ... This is the last tournament for the leading top 10 in the FedEx Cup and the leading five players in “swing category” to earn a spot in Bay Hill next week. ... Since turning pro after winning The American Express, U.S. Amateur champion Nick Dunlap finished in last place at Pebble Beach and missed the cut at Riviera. He is in the field this week. ... NCAA champion Fred Biondi, who turned pro last year, received a sponsor exemption. ... The field features five of the top 25 in the world ranking.
Last week: Patty Tavatanakit won the Honda LPGA Thailand.
Notes: This is the second of three straight weeks in Asia. The HSBC Women’s World Championship dates to 2008 and typically gets a strong field. ... Jin Young Ko is going for her third straight title in Singapore. ... Lorena Ochoa set the course record of 268 in 2008, the inaugural year of the tournament. ... The field features eight of the top 10 in the women’s world ranking, missing only Nelly Korda and Charley Hull. ... Atthaya Thitikul, No. 11 in the world, has an injured left thumb and does not plan to return until the end of March. ... Former U.S. Women’s Open champion In Gee Chun is playing on a sponsor’s invitation. ... Minjee Lee is in the field, playing for the first time this year on the LPGA Tour. ... Solheim Cup captain Stacy Lewis has named Paula Creamer, Angela Stanford, Brittany Lincicome and Morgan Pressel as assistants for this year’s matches in Virginia.
Last tournament: Dustin Johnson won LIV Golf Las Vegas.
Notes: Brooks Koepka is going for his third straight LIV victory in Saudi Arabia. The tournament was played in the fall the last two seasons. ... Anthony Kim is expected to make his LIV debut as an individual. Kim has not competed anywhere since May 2012 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He is now 38. ... Dustin Johnson’s victory in Las Vegas makes him the first player to win in each of the three seasons of LIV Golf. Among those with a chance to match him this week are Koepka and Cameron Smith. ... Johnson, Graeme McDowell, Harold Varner III and Abraham Ancer have all won in Saudi Arabia outside the LIV Golf League. ... Jon Rahm’s new team is leading the standings after two events. ... Joaquin Niemann was the only LIV Golf player who received a special invitation to the Masters based on his European tour performances in the offseason. ... Patrick Reed is no longer among the top 100 in the world.
Last week: Darius van Driel won the Magical Kenya Open.
Notes: The tournament is co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour of South Africa. ... This is the second of three straight tournaments on the African continent. ... The field features only four players from the top 100 in the world. The highest-ranked player is Rikuya Hoshino, who is at No. 81. ... South Africa only has five players in the top 100 in the world. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who plays the PGA Tour, is the top-ranked South African at No. 59. ... Only two players from Nos. 126-200 in the FedEx Cup last year are in the field, Matthias Schwab and Jonas Blixt. Dylan Frittelli was in that category until winning earlier this year to get full European tour membership. ... Keita Nakajima, a former world No. 1 amateur, is in the field. He is eligible from winning the Japan Golf Tour money title last year. ... The tournament only became part of the European tour schedule last year.
Asian Tour and PGA Tour of Australasia: New Zealand Open, Millbrook GC (Coronet and Remarkables), Arrowtown, New Zealand. Defending champion: Brendan Jones. Online: https://asiantour.com/ and https://pga.org.au/.
We are three rounds into the Memorial Tournament and it looks like Scottie Scheffler is set to return to the winner's circle to capture his fifth win of the 2024 season.
Despite an ultra-rare triply bogey by Scheffler on the ninth hole, the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world still shot one-under par on the day to extend his lead on the field by one. If the live odds are any indication, the three golfers who are tied for second have little hope of catching him on the final day.
If you translate Scheffler's -450 live odds to implied probability, there's an 81.82% chance he wins the Memorial Tournament. Knowing Scheffler, those odds may be too long. It's tough to imagine a scenario where he coughs up his lead on Sunday.
Collin Morikawa (+1000), Sepp Straks (+1800), and Adam Hadwin (+2800) are the three golfers who sit four shots back of Scheffler at six-under par.
Xander Schauffele (+3000) and Ludvig Aberg (+4500) are the only other two golfers who have a remote chance of pulling it off. They both set at four-under par, six shots back from the Masters champion.
If you want to place a live bet on the Memorial Tournament but you don't want to go against Scheffler or lay the -450 juice on him to win, BetMGM is offering odds on "winner without Scheffler". Unless Scheffler lets the tournament slip from his hands, this will be a bet on which golfer finishes second.
If you want to get in on that market, I suggest Hadwin at +550 for a lot of the same reasons why I thought he was worth a sprinkle to win ahead of Round 3.
The Canadian has been showcasing elite ball striking so far this week, ranking third in strokes gained: approach through the first three rounds at +2.34 per round. His putter has caused him to fall behind Scheffler, but at a course like Muirfield Village, I want to take the guy who's had sharper irons than most of the field.
Pick: Hadwin (winner without Scheffler) +550
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
After a couple of weeks of less-than-exciting PGA Tour events, we're about to enter a stretch of must-watch golf, starting with this week's Wells Fargo Championship.
Quail Hollow is set to host the sixth signature event and the majority of the best golfers on Tour are set to compete in it. With that being said, there's one notable absentee this week, Scottie Scheffler. The No. 1-ranked golfer in the world is awaiting the birth of his first child so he'll be taking the week off before heading to Valhalla for next week's PGA Championship.
That leaves Rory McIlroy as the betting favorite this week, fresh off a win alongside Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic.
Let's dive into everything you need to know to bet on this event, including the odds and my three picks to win.
Saturday: 1 p.m. - 3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Sunday: 1 p.m. - 3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3 p.m. - 6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Wells Fargo Championship Purse
Dates: Thursday, May 9 - Sunday, May 12
Purse: $20 million ($3.6 million to winner)
Defending champion: Wyndham Clark
Wells Fargo Championship Notable Golfers
Wyndham Clark: Wyndham Clark's magical 2023 season started right here at Quail Hollow where he captured his first PGA Tour win. He ran away from the field en route to a four-stroke victory over Xander Schauffele and then followed it up by winning the U.S. Open in June. He's fresh off a T3 finish at the RBC Heritage so he may be rounding back into form after a missed cut at the Masters.
Max Homa: Max Homa has won this event twice, but only once when it was at Quail Hollow. His second win came in 2022 when this event was hosted at TPC Potomac due to Quail Hollow hosting the Presidents Cup. He's still searching for his first win in over a year and returning to this course could be the perfect opportunity for him to do exactly that.
Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets
Wyndham Clark +1800
The first name that sticks out to me is the defending champion, Wyndham Clark. His T3 finish at the RBC Heritage helps me forget his abysmal performance at Augusta and it's tough not to think he can win here again in 2024.
He's second on the Tour in total strokes gained this season behind only Scottie Scheffler, and he's already proven 2023 wasn't a flash in the pan by winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. He followed up that win with a second-place finishes at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship.
Quail Hollow fits his style of golf to perfection. You have to be long off the tee here and Clark enters this week ranking sixth in driving distance along with seventh in total ball striking.
Don't be surprised if he successfully defends his title this week.
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Hideki Matsuyama was one of the more popular bets at the Masters last month, but the 2021 winner at Augusta had a disappointing outing, finishing T38. Well, I'm not ready to jump off the Matsuyama train quite yet, especially now that he has had some rest and should be good to go at Quail Hollow.
The 32-year-old enters this week's event ranking ninth in total strokes gained and, more importantly, leads the field in strokes gained: around-the-green, an area of utmost importance at Quail Hollow.
He has had solid performances here in the past, including a top-five placing in 2017, and I believe he's being extremely undervalued on the odds board at his current price.
Rickie Fowler +6600
My dark horse bet this week is none other than Rickie Fowler. He hasn't had his best stuff in 2023 but has improved in his last two starts, finishing T30 at the Masters and following it up with a T18 finish at the RBC Heritage. That could be a sign that he's finding his form and now he returns to a course he's had success at in his career.
Fowler got his first PGA Tour victory here back in 2012 and finished inside the top five three times since then. That means we can get long odds on a golfer who seems to be rounding into form at a course that he's extremely comfortable at.
He's worth a sprinkle at 66/1.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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