All eyes in the baseball world will be firmly set on this weekend’s interleague series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, which could very well be a preview of this season’s World Series.
The Yankees have looked like the best team in the Majors so far, sporting a spotless 45-19 record while leading all teams in a plethora of metrics. Game 1 of the three-game set is on Friday night.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know to bet on tonight’s game.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The Dodgers’ pitching staff, including their starter for Game 1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to have their hands full this weekend. The Yankees lead the Majors in OPS this season at .776 while also rocking a stunning .825 OPS over the last 30 days. Strong pitching is going to be a must if they want to win Game 1 tonight.
Yankees
Aaron Judge: Aaron Judge has been on an unbelievable roll of late. Over the last 30 days, he has a batting average of .387, an OPS of 1.491, and he’s hit 14 dingers. He’s the key to every game for the Yankees moving forward.
Juan Soto is going through an injury scare right now, but that shouldn’t scare us bettors away from taking the Yankees as home underdogs.
The Yankees have statistically been the best team in baseball this season so I’m surprised they’re this big of underdogs to the Dodgers at home on Friday night. Over the last 30 days, the Yankees have an eye-popping OPS of .825 while the Dodgers have an OPS of just .708, which ranks 14th in the Majors. I’ll take New York at home.
Cody Peteet may be still of an unknown entity for the Yankees, but he’s looked solid in his first two starts, giving up just three earned runs in 11.0 innings. If he can keep that going tonight, New York is going to be a great underdog bet.
Pick: Yankees +120
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Armageddon awaits. Likely for the first time since the 1978 World Series, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend with each team claiming first place.
The Yankees have the better offense, the better starting pitching and the better bullpen. The Dodgers have the better defense. Most surprisingly, we all know which team has the better 1-2-3 at the top of the lineup. And it’s not the one with the three Most Valuable Players that even before a box of game balls was cracked open had people scrambling to compare them to the greatest trios ever to top a lineup.
Step aside Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. You have been upstaged by Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
First, the cold, hard facts:
R
H
HR
RBI
Total Bases
Avg.
SLG
Volpe, Soto, Judge
131
207
44
125
394
.298
Betts, Ohtani, Freeman
119
215
30
105
366
.311
Second, one 100 mph pitch that helps explains why the Yankees’ trio is better: an 0-and-1 cut fastball to Volpe on Sunday from San Francisco Giants closer Camilo Doval, who had held righthanded batters to a .098 average this year. With one on and one out in the ninth, Doval was holding a two-run lead and a 91.7%-win probability. If he dismissed Volpe, Doval could avoid Judge, whom the Giants had retired only four times in 12 tries in his Bay Area homecoming.
Last season Doval could have exploited multiple holes in Volpe’s swing to put him away. Caught up in an analytical-fueled quest to get balls airborne to the pull side, Volpe swung uphill with too much head movement. He could not hit top-rail fastballs (.125), inside fastballs (.195) or breaking pitches (.148).
Doval was about to find this out. He threw a 99.9 mph cutter buried so far inside that it was off the plate. No matter. Volpe 2.0 kept his hands inside the ball and with a short, quick lash carved the pitch into the right-centerfield gap for an RBI triple. He could not do that last year.
With that one swing, another Yankees win was set in motion. Two pitches later, Soto clobbered a high fastball for a go-ahead homer.
A high fastball? Is anybody paying attention? I am astonished how teams keep thinking they can get high fastballs past Soto. This is all you need to know about how to pitch Soto:
Soto by Fastball Height in Zone This Season
Avg.
SLG
HR
Top Third
.459
1.054
7
Middle Third
.447
1.128
8
Bottom Third
.188
.313
0
That’s 15 of his 17 home runs this year resulting from fastballs in the zone belt high or higher. His past 35 home runs off fastballs in the zone have all been middle-up. Soto hasn’t hit a low fastball for a home run in almost a year—since June 14, 2023.
Judge, who is hitting everything, walked, stole second and scored on a Giancarlo Stanton double. In a span of just a dozen pitches, the Yankees scored four times and turned what was about to be a 5–3 loss into a 7–5 win.
Sure, Judge is slugging .658 and Soto has a .417 OBP and Stanton is on pace for 37 homers … all impressive, but … they’ve all been there, done that. All have been better than that in past years. Volpe is the difference maker, slashing .284/.352/.440 a year after going .209/.283/.383. He and Jurickson Profar of the San Diego Padres are the most improved hitters in baseball. Volpe gives the Yankees a leadoff hitter with speed and that kind of OBP for the first time since Derek Jeter in 2009. He creates traffic for Soto and Judge as an elite baserunner (95th percentile).
Volpe’s transformation is extraordinary. Adopting a more traditional, 1980s-type style in the batter’s box, Volpe is embracing groundballs (up from 41% to 52%), hitting the other way (23% to 32%) and putting the ball in play (he has cut his strikeout rate from 28% to 21%)—qualities that are not stressed enough at a time when batting average is the fourth lowest in history (.240).
Try to find another hitter who cut his pull percentage anywhere near what Volpe has done. You won’t. He has cut his pull rate by 21.4% (46.7% to 25.3%). Betts’s 13.8% decline is the next biggest turning away from the pull side.
The Dodgers coming to Yankee Stadium is a clash of titans and the rare renewal of a classic rivalry. The Yankees and Dodgers rank Nos. 1 and 2 in OPS, respectively, and 1 and 3 in home runs, slugging and ERA, respectively.
The Dodgers are 13–24 in the Bronx, including 3–2 in regular season games in 2016 (when the Yankees were in fourth place) and 2013 (when the Dodgers were 29–39). In the postseason, the Yankees own a big edge at home against the Dodgers, 22–10. (The Yankees were a fourth-place team when they met in the 1981 World Series; having qualified for the playoffs in the split season of the strike-marred year by winning the division in the first half.)
The star power is off the charts this weekend. Six of the past 14 MVP Awards have been won by players in this matchup (Ohtani has won two; Judge, Freeman, Betts and Stanton one each). Ohtani is a career .130 hitter at Yankee Stadium, the seventh worst of anyone with 50 plate appearances in the latest version of the yard—but he does have four homers there in just 46 at-bats. Judge has a 1.026 OPS in Yankee Stadium, the highest by any active player in any park with at least 1,500 plate appearances.
Judge has homered in 28% of the games he has played in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees win 79.0% of games when Judge homers in the Bronx (98–26). For some historical perspective, Babe Ruth homered in 27% of his games in the original yard while the Yankees won 77.1% of those games (178–53).
Amid all the MVPs and the monster home run hitters, however, don’t overlook the importance of the 5'9" leadoff hitter for New York looking to make his first All-Star team. Volpe has emerged as an impact player. The Yankees are 27–5 (.844) when Volpe scores a run and 14–14 (.500) when he doesn’t.
As Willie Mays turns 93 years old Monday, the position he redefined with his combination of speed, power and elan has lost its glamor. Center field is the worst position on the field this season and populated with one of the worst collections of hitters the position has ever seen.
Center fielders entered play Monday hitting .224 with a .292 on-base percentage and .648 OPS, all of which would easily be the worst rates at the position. With the way modern hitters sacrifice batting average for power, you might excuse the ineptness if there was some serious slugging. Nope. Center fielders this season are slugging .357, well below the nadir of .370 in 1989 since the mound was lowered in ’69.
How bad is the center field crisis? This bad:
Nine teams are hitting less than .200 out of center field.
The .648 OPS from center field is the worst of any position, 19 points lower than the next worst, second base. Center fielders also have the worst batting average, worst OBP, worst slugging, fewest hits and fewest total bases among all positions.
Seven teams have one or no home runs by their center fielders.
It’s not just a bad month. Since the mound was lowered in 1969, the seven worst batting averages for center fielders all have occurred in the past seven seasons (2018 to ’24).
Even the arms are worse in center field. Average arm strength has dropped from 90 mph in 2022 to 89.4 in ’23 to 89.2 this year.
What in the names of John Fogerty and Terry Cashman is going on here?
Mike Trout, Byron Buxton, Clay Bellinger and Luis Robert Jr. are hurt.
Aaron Judge, Julio Rodríguez, Corbin Carroll, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cedric Mullins are having slow starts.
Judge, who has had an uncharacteristically slow start this season, was given his first career ejection against the Tigers on Saturday.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
A bevy of young center fielders are having a hard time hitting their weight, or at least .230, such as Tyler Freeman, Parker Meadows, James Outman, Ceddanne Rafaela, Kyle Isbel, Dominic Fletcher, Jose Siri, Johan Rojas, Michael Siani, Victor Scott II, Stuart Fairchild and Will Benson.
What is so strange is that the amazing athleticism and offensive profile we see from a new generation of shortstops—Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson and CJ Abrams—isn’t showing up in center field.
It was Mays, who debuted with the 1948 Birmingham Black Barons and in the National League with the ’51 New York Giants, who popularized center field as a glamor position of power and speed. His two home parks, Rickwood Field and the Polo Grounds, had enormous outfields that allowed him to showcase his range.
Mays changed the game. In 1955 he became the first player to hit 50 homers while stealing 20 bases. He led the league in stolen bases each of the next four seasons, pulling the game away from its station-to-station conservatism. Until Mays, baseball had seen only one 30–30 player, Ken Williams of the St. Louis Browns back in ’22. Then Mays did it in back-to-back years, ’56 and ’57.
Mays hit .300 with 30 home runs eight times, a record for center fielders, followed by Mickey Mantle (7), Ken Griffey Jr. (5), Duke Snider (4) and Trout (3). Only three center fielders in the past six years have done it even once: Judge (2022), Ketel Marte (’19) and Trout (’18).
Comparing anybody to Mays is folly. As the journalist Murray Kempton wrote, Mays was as original as Faulkner or the Delta Blues. The actress Tallulah Bankhead, a fellow Alabaman, supposedly said the world had two true geniuses: Shakespeare and Mays.
There will likely never be a center fielder quite like Mays, who hit .300 with 30 home runs eight times.
Neil Leifer/Sports Illustrated
Leo Durocher, Mays’ first manager with the Giants, once wrote that “If somebody came up and hit .450, stole 100 bases and performed a miracle in the field every day, I’d still look you right in the eye and tell you that Willie was better.”
Durocher said Mays was the ultimate five-tool superstar.
“And,” he added, “he had the other magic ingredient that turns a superstar into a super-superstar: charisma.”
Mays remains the pinnacle of what a center fielder should be. There is no one like him before or since. Forget finding a center fielder who hits .300 with 30 home runs these days. Can we at least get a center fielder who hits .280 with 20 home runs? Sadly, the answer last year was no (for the first time in 47 years) and it might be too much to ask again this year.
UPDATE: Juan Soto's MRI came back with only inflammation, according to MLB insider Jon Heyman. His AL MVP odds have still dropped to +450 at FanDuel Sportsbook -- but they have rebounded after falling as low as +650.
The initial prognosis on Juan Soto's MRI is that it's only inflammation and he should be ok, per @JonHeyman
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 7, 2024
What follows is the initial story of the odds movement following Soto's exit from Thursday night's game against the Minnesota Twins. His odds have remained the same at DraftKings Sportsbook (+235) throughout this process.
New York Yankees fans everywhere held their breath on Thursday night after Juan Soto was lifted from the team's win with what the Yankees called, "left forearm discomfort."
However, MLB insider Jon Heyman revealed on Friday that the Yankees are "nervous" when it comes to Soto and his injury and his odds have fallen since the injury occurred.
"The Yankees have their fingers crossed, they're nervous."
— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) June 7, 2024
Soto is slashing an impressive .318/.424/.603 with 17 homers on the season. He was right behind teammate Aaron Judge in the odds as the No. 2 favorite for the AL MVP.
That has since changed at FanDuel Sportsbook, a sign that Soto could be looking at a stint on the injured list. Even if Soto plays, oddsmakers may be taking their chance on him being less effective with his forearm bothering him, at least in terms of his ability to win AL MVP.
Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles star Gunnar Henderson have leapfrogged Soto in the latest AL MVP odds. Soto dropped from +210 to +650 since being removed from Thursday's game, a massive falloff that signals oddsmakers believe he's at least expected to miss some time or be less effective in the MVP race.
The other important note here is Judge has jumped to a clear favorite in this market. After posting an OPS over 1.400 in May, Judge is now hitting .289 on the season and leads baseball in homers (21), doubles, and walks drawn.
Despite the movement at FanDuel, that isn't the case everywhere in the betting market.
In this case, oddsmakers still believe in Soto's AL MVP case, although Witt Jr. and Henderson are right on his heels for the No. 2 spot.
Until the Yankees officially announce a roster move, Soto's status is truly up in the air.
The star outfielder addressed the media on Thursday, saying he's been dealing with the ailment for a couple of weeks. While he's been able to play through it, there has to be some concern that this has been building over time.
Juan Soto says he's felt the forearm tightness for a couple weeks but it hasn't impacted his baseball related activities at all pic.twitter.com/UuyC2ATyyA
Soto didn't have to make many throws against the Twins on Thursday, and it's unclear if there is a specific spot where he could have aggravated his forearm that led to his removal from the game.
If the injury isn't bothering Soto when he hits, he theoretically could stay in the AL-leading Yankees lineup as a designated hitter.
The problem? That spot is usually manned by slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has been injury-prone in the past and is certainly risky to play in the field. For now, the Yankees and their fans -- and Soto bettors -- are hoping for some positive news about his injury in the coming days.
I think this helps Judge's MVP case the most, as the Yankees would rely even more on the 2022 AL MVP if Soto can't play for any period.
Judge has finished in the top five in MVP voting in three different seasons in his MLB career.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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