It took just one game — one quarter really — of the 2024 NBA Finals for the Boston Celtics to show why they had the best record in the NBA in the 2023-24 season and led the league in net rating.
Boston jumped out to the biggest first quarter lead in a Game 1 in NBA Finals history, and it didn’t let Dallas get closer than eight points the rest of the way in a blowout win.
The C’s came into this series as -210 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, giving them an implied probability of over 60 percent to win the title. That has already changed drastically after Boston’s Game 1 win.
Based on the latest odds at DraftKings, Boston has an implied probability of 80 percent to win the NBA Finals this season. While it was only one game, it’s clear that Boston’s dominance has altered the betting market in a big way.
A historical trend that dates back to the 1996-97 season also favors Boston, as no team that has finished outside the top eight in net rating during the regular season has gone on to win the NBA Finals since then.
Dallas is attempting to break that trend this season.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
For bettors that still believe in the Mavericks, there is something to hang your hat on after Game 1.
Jason Kidd was just 1-5 (now 1-6) in Game 1s as the Mavericks’ head coach, but he’s led his team to a 5-1 series record so far in two playoff runs. Kidd has made the adjustments — and his team has responded — after other poor showings in series openers in the playoffs this season.
As a bettor who already has a Celtics future from the preseason in pocket, I’m standing pat ahead of Sunday’s Game 2 based on the latest odds movement.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Luka Dončić got into it with the crowd again during Game 2 of the NBA Finals. This time it was Boston Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck sitting courtside who drew Dončić's attention.
Following an incredible first half performance, Dončić picked up five quick assists early in the third quarter. During that run, Grousbeck apparently did something that the Dallas Mavericks star didn't like.
According to multiple media members, Grousbeck taunted Dončić. Then, on the next possession, the Mavs star hit a turnaround jumper and let Grousbeck have it as he ran back up the court.
Luka Doncic goes to work in the post with the turnaround jumper!
Grousbeck apparently made a technical foul gesture, signaling to the officials that Dončić should receive a technical for complaining. The gesture directly resulted in Dončić backing down an All-Defensive Second Team player and hitting him with a move that left him flat-footed as he buried a jumper. Celtics' Derrick White didn't even attempt to contest the shot.
Celtics governor Wyc Grousbeck stood up during a recent dead ball and made a technical foul sign to Luka Doncic that the Mavs star saw nearby. After Doncic followed by scoring next, he ran back and had some words for Grousbeck that brought laughter by nearby fans.
Despite the fact that Dončić has been playing well, the Celtics still extended their lead during the third quarter. Boston led 54-51 at the half and this Dončić highlight cut it to three again, but by the end of the third Boston was up by nine. Dončić had six points and six assists in the quarter.
Before they could get comfortable at TD Garden, the Boston Celtics opened up a 17-point lead after 12 minutes—the biggest lead for any team in the first quarter of a Game 1 in NBA Finals history. Boston continued to pile on and led by as many as 29 points in the second quarter before Dallas began chipping away.
The Mavericks trimmed the deficit to eight points in the third quarter but weren't able to fully complete the comeback, losing 107–89. If they did, it would've made NBA history.
The largest comeback in a single NBA playoff games is 31 points, set in 2019 when the Los Angeles Clippers erased a 31-point deficit to win Game 2 of their first-round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers outscored Golden State 85–58 in the second half to win that game.
But as far as the NBA Finals goes, the biggest comeback was when the Celtics battled back from 24 points down to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 of the 2008 Finals.
DATE
MATCHUP
DEFICIT
FINAL SCORE
June 12, 2008
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers led by 24 points
Celtics 97, Lakers 91
The Celtics entered Game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals holding a 2–1 series lead. They swept the first two games of the series at TD Banknorth Garden and lost 87–81 in an ugly defensive battle in Game 3 at then-Staples Center.
Los Angeles came out hot in the first quarter of Game 4, shooting 64.7% from the field and taking a 35–14 lead after 12 minutes while the Celtics shot just 27.3% (6 of 22). The Lakers built it up to a 24-point lead in the second quarter when Sasha Vujacic drained a three-pointer off a pass from Kobe Bryant to make it 45–21.
The score remained 45–21 for nearly two minutes of game time, as the teams exchanged misses, until Celtics forward Kevin Garnet knocked down a mid-range jumper. And the Celtics' comeback began.
Boston still trailed the Lakers by 18 points at halftime but came out firing in the third quarter, outscoring Los Angeles 31–15. They tied the game at 73 with 10:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, and took their first lead of the game at 84–83 with 4:07 remaining. From there, they closed out on a 13–8 run to win 97–91 and take a 3–1 series lead.
The Lakers led for 40:30 of game time. They couldn't miss in the first half but shot just 33.3% from the field in the final two quarters, missing all eight attempts from downtown. Bryant and Pau Gasol logged a plus/minus of -24 in the second half.
Garnet tallied a double-double in 37 minutes, scoring 16 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. But it was James Posey providing the spark off the bench, logging 18 points on 5-of-10 shooting and nailing four three-pointers.
Facing a 24-point deficit in the NBA Finals? As Garnett would go on to say after Boston claimed Game 6 and were crowned champions, anything is possible.
BOSTON—Kristaps Porzingis didn’t want to talk about it.
“It didn’t work out,” Porzingis said.
Luka Doncic wanted nothing to do with it.
“Moved on,” Doncic said.
Tim Hardaway Jr. didn’t want to touch it.
“I think that’s a question for them,” Hardaway said.
It is the question of why Doncic and Porzingis, teammates for 2½ seasons with the Dallas Mavericks, didn’t pan out. In 2019, Dallas, midway through Doncic’s rookie season, made what qualified as a blockbuster trade, flipping a pair of first-round picks to the New York Knicks for a package headlined by Porzingis. In Porzingis, a then-23-year-old forward coming off an All-Star season, the Mavericks believed they had landed an ideal co-star for Doncic who would form the foundation for a title contender. Then-Dallas coach Rick Carlisle likened Doncic and Porzingis to another pair of Mavs stars, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki.
“Only these guys,” Carlisle said, “are taller.”
It wasn’t. By 2022, Porzingis was gone, offloaded for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Porzingis’s numbers in his final 34 games in Dallas: 19.2 points on 45.1% shooting, including 28.3% from three.
“We had some good moments,” Porzingis said. “We had some decent moments. Overall I think it didn't work for both sides. It wasn’t perfect.”
Said Doncic, “I don’t really know. I don’t know why it didn’t work out. We were still both young. We tried to make it work. But it just didn’t work.”
Ask around the Mavericks about the Porzingis era, one that began with Carlisle as head coach and ended with Jason Kidd, and you hear many of the same things. The relationship with Doncic wasn’t a significant issue. “It’s always been good,” Porzingis insisted. Injuries were certainly a factor. Porzingis was traded while recovering from an ACL tear and tore his meniscus late in his first full season. Porzingis resisted Dallas’s analytics-based approach. He struggled in a catch-and-shoot role under Carlisle and couldn’t find a rhythm under Kidd.
“I thought it was going well in the sense of our defense, his ability to block shots, rebound,” Kidd said. “Then offensively we looked to post him up a little bit more than Rick had used him, which was strictly on the perimeter shooting threes. Both worked. He has the skill set to do both. I thought KP did great for us. But the business of basketball, there was a pivot. So from there things changed.”
With the Boston Celtics, Porzingis has been the kind of fit the Mavericks had hoped for. He averaged 20.1 points. He shot a career-best 51.5% from the floor. He connected on 37.5% of his threes. He blocked nearly two shots per game, backstopping the NBA’s third-rated defense.
Asked when he knew Porzingis would be a good fit, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said, “right away.”
“I think all he cares about is winning,” Mazzulla said. “He’s used the experiences he’s had around the league. He’s seen a lot. He’s seen it all. He’s seen success. He’s seen tough times. He knows what the league is all about. I think at this point in his career, winning is the most important thing.”
Indeed, at 28, Porzingis has seen a lot. He was the unicorn in New York, a budding superstar … until he wasn’t. Dallas was a disaster. He put up numbers with the Washington Wizards for a team going nowhere. Boston afforded him a unique opportunity: a role he was ready for on a team that needed him to win.
“KP essentially did exactly what we needed him to do the entire season,” Jayson Tatum said. “Whether it was punish switches or space the five man and be in the corner. Sometimes that might be going possessions without touching the ball or it may be when they’re switching, we give him the ball five times in a row. I give KP a lot of credit. Especially somebody as talented as he is and obviously as tall as he is, a lot of big guys may be stuck in their ways doing what makes him comfortable. He got outside his comfort zone a little bit and it made us a better team.”
Porzingis’s ability to be that player in the NBA Finals is an open question. He has not played since late April, since a calf strain sidelined him. He says he will play in Game 1 on Thursday. Boston did not list him on its injury report. But even Porzingis admits he’s not sure how sharp he is going to be.
“I did as much as I could to prepare for this moment,” Porzingis said. “But there’s nothing like game minutes and game experience that I’m going to get tomorrow. It will be tough to jump into the Finals like this. I did everything I could to prepare for it and we’ll see [Thursday] night.”
And Dallas? Porzingis is eager to beat the Mavs. But he insists none of it is personal.
“I know at that time there were some rumors there’s like something in the locker room,” Porzingis said. “It was never like that. It’s all just noise at the end. It wasn’t just perfect for us playing together. It didn’t work out, that’s it. We moved on. There’s no, like, ill will from their side, for sure from my side. I don’t think there should be. Just didn’t work out. But I have nothing but love for Dallas and for the teammates and for everybody there.”
