The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to select.
I’ve covered quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, and you can read about all three by clicking the links above, so now it’s time to look at the tight ends. This is probably the least important position in fantasy football, so most managers will wait to fill it rather than take one of the top-end options. As a result, tiers will be uber valuable.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Sam LaPorta, Lions Travis Kelce, Chiefs Mark Andrews, Ravens Trey McBride, Cardinals
This is the first time in years that Kelce isn’t either in his own tier or the top player at tight end. That’s due to a “down” statistical year by his high standards, coupled with LaPorta’s breakout and the fact that Kelce is entering his age-35 season. Andrews should remain a top-five option, and I’ve also included McBride in this tier. He finished seventh in points last season, and that came despite seeing just 10 targets in his first five games. He’s a big breakout candidate.
Kincaid, like McBride, showed flashes of potential last season and is in a great position to bust out in the stat sheets. Kittle’s points-per-game averages have dropped each of the last six years, but he’s still a surefire top-10 option. Engram, last season’s third-best tight end, could see some regression but remains a starter in fantasy leagues. Could this finally be the year we see Pitts reach his fantasy potential? With Kirk Cousins at the helm, he hasn’t had this good of a chance to be a fantasy asset since he joined the league.
Njoku had a career-best season, but his numbers were far better with Joe Flacco under center than Deshaun Watson. That could be a concern. Ferguson continued the trend of Cowboys tight ends making a fantasy impact, posting a top-10 finish. Bowers is one of the best tight-end prospects to come out of college since Pitts, so he’ll be a popular sleeper even as a rookie. Goedert’s stats have decreased lately, but he’s still a viable fantasy starter.
Tier 4 – High TE2s
Dalton Schultz, Texans Pat Freiermuth, Steelers Cole Kmet, Bears
This is where the tight-end position starts to fade in terms of reliable options. Schultz was the TE10 last season, but you must wonder how much Stefon Diggs will eat into his targets. Freiermuth was a fantasy dud last season, but I’m expecting him to rebound, at least at some level, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Kmet, last season’s TE8, will struggle to regain that level after the Bears added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett.
Tier 5 – Mid TE2s
Hunter Henry, Patriots Luke Musgrave, Packers T.J. Hockenson, Vikings Taysom Hill, Saints Cade Otton, Buccaneers
This tier includes two sleepers in Musgrave and Otton, while Henry and Hill (it’s not a Goodfellas reference) will be matchup-based starters in most leagues. Hockenson is the most difficult player to project. He’s established himself as an elite player and would be in Tier 1 had he not suffered a late-season ACL tear. With no real timetable for when he’ll be back, Hockenson is tough to recommend as more than a risk-reward, No. 2 tight end.
Tier 6 – Low TE2s
Daniel Bellinger, Giants Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans Ben Sinnott, Commanders Juwan Johnson, Saints Tyler Conklin, Jets
There are some deep sleepers in this tier, including Bellinger, Sinnott and Johnson. You could also throw Okonkwo into that category, though target share could be an issue with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd all in the Titans’ offense. Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz, but the rookie has great upside and is worth a late flier. Johnson, who showed flashes of potential late last year, could also outplay his draft position.
There are a number of players who have had past fantasy success in this tier, but there’s not a whole lot of upside. Higbee is coming off an injury, so his stock has taken a nosedive. Gesicki is in a crowded Bengals pass attack. Hurst hasn’t been a fantasy-relevant player in several seasons. Ertz could be limited in Washington’s offense with Sinnott on the roster. Fant is a matchup-based option at best.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues could be looking at this group as late-round flies, but in reality there’s not a ton of value. Smith is a strong pass catcher, but the Dolphins offense doesn’t feature the tight end. Likely’s value is limited with Mark Andrews ahead of him on the Baltimore depth chart. Green Bay is loaded with good, young weapons, which will hurt the value of Kraft, who I have behind his teammate Musgrave in the rankings. Woods could be a worthwhile, deep-league flier, while Oliver could have some appeal in Minnesota while T.J. Hockenson is recovering from a torn ACL.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to pick.
I’ve covered quarterbacks and running backs, so now let’s look at wide receivers. This is now the most important position in fantasy football, especially in leagues that award points for receptions. It’s also the deepest position, as more teams have leaned on the pass attack in recent seasons. We’ve also seen a lot of wide receivers come out of the collegiate ranks and make an immediate impact (many of whom you’ll see in the first several tiers).
Tier 1 – The Elite
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys Tyreek Hill, Dolphins Justin Jefferson, Vikings Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
Lamb moved past Hill and Jefferson as the top wideout in fantasy football after a career 2023 season that saw him post 403.2 points. Hill, the WR2 last season, remains a close second. Jefferson remains in my top three, but the loss of Kirk Cousins brings at least some questions due to the state of the Vikings quarterback situation. He’ll be catching passes from either rookie J.J. McCarthy or journeyman Sam Darnold. St. Brown is locked in as a top-five wideout, and Chase remains among the elite with a healthy Joe Burrow in Cincinnati.
Brown finished fifth in fantasy points among wideouts last season, but he faded down the stretch. Still, he’ll be a first-round selection in most drafts. Nacua, who came out of nowhere to rank fourth in points among wideouts, will be a top-24 overall pick. You must wonder if he can duplicate such a magical season, however, especially if Cooper Kupp can avoid injuries. Wilson is a popular breakout candidate, as he’ll have Aaron Rodgers under center. I am very high on Harrison Jr. coming into his rookie season, which is obvious as I have him listed as a potential low-WR1. He'll be a top-36 pick.
Tier 3 – Low WR1s
Davante Adams, Raiders Chris Olave, Saints Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers Drake London, Falcons Mike Evans, Buccaneers Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
Adams was inconsistent in the stat sheets last year but still finished in the top 10. Olave should post a career season with Michael Thomas off the roster, and Aiyuk should build on his impressive 2023 season. He’s also entering a contract year. This tier includes four players who could push for WR1 value. London is a popular breakout candidate with Kirk Cousins now under center in Atlanta. Evans was the WR7 a season ago, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Pittman Jr. should remain the Colts' No. 1 wideout, and his numbers were solid in games started by Anthony Richardson last season.
Tier 4 – High WR2s
DK Metcalf, Seahawks Nico Collins, Texans Deebo Samuel Sr., 49ers DJ Moore, Bears
The Seahawks passing game should benefit from hiring Ryan Grubb as their new offensive coordinator, which is good news for Metcalf. This tier also includes Collins ahead of Stefon Diggs, as he has a rapport with C.J. Stroud. Samuel Sr., coming off a WR15 finish, should be a fine No. 2 wideout. As for Moore, he will struggle to duplicate his high-end numbers from last season after the Bears traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze. He’ll drop from a mid-level No. 1 wideout to a No. 2 option.
Diggs can no longer be considered an elite fantasy option, as he'll compete with Collins and Tank Dell for targets. Still, he should finish in the WR2 range in what should be an explosive pass attack. Waddle and Smith are both in high-octane offenses and will be attractive WR2s in fantasy leagues. Nabers should be a target hero as a rookie in New York if his quarterbacks can get him the football. There's high-end WR2 potential in him.
Tier 6 – Low WR2s
Cooper Kupp, Rams Amari Cooper, Browns Terry McLaurin, Commanders Christian Kirk, Jaguars
Kupp has missed parts of the last two seasons due to injuries and is now entering his age-31 season, so he’s fallen to the WR2/WR3 range as a result. Cooper averaged a solid 15.3 PPR points in his 15 games last season, and he should remain the top option in the Browns pass attack even with the addition of Jerry Jeudy during the offseason. McLaurin should emerge as the first option in the passing game for rookie Jayden Daniels. Kirk will be the first receiving option with Calvin Ridley no longer in the Jaguars offense.
There is real upside in this tier as Flowers, McConkey and Higgins could push for WR2 value. Flowers should build on a good rookie season, and McConkey has a shot to lead all Chargers wideouts in targets. He’ll be a popular sleeper option in drafts. Higgins had a subpar 2023 but will be motivated to rebound in a contract year. Pickens and Reed could both break out as the projected top receivers for their respective teams. Allen, whose stock fell after being traded to the Bears, is now a flex option. The same holds true for Dell, who looked terrific as a rookie but will lose opportunities to Diggs.
Ridley, who finished 18th among wideouts last season, is now in an offense with an unproven quarterback in Will Levis and will have to compete with DeAndre Hopkins. Johnson will be the top target for Bryce Young in Carolina, so I can see him averaging 12-13 points per game. Brown could be a bargain for managers if he opens the season as the top wideout in Kansas City. I have his new teammate, Rice in his tier, but I have no idea what sort of suspension he’ll face for his off-field problems. Sutton, who remains the clear top wideout in Denver, and the veteran Godwin should both be on the low WR3 radar.
There’s plenty of upside in Tier 10, but some questions too. Addison would be ranked higher if it weren’t for the quarterback questions in Minnesota, and Hopkins will contend with Ridley for targets in Tennessee. I like Smith-Njigba as a potential sleeper/breakout in his second season, but Lockett remains a big part of Seattle's offense. Williams, who will see a bigger role in Detroit this season, should post career numbers. He has sleeper/breakout appeal.
Tier 10 – High WR4s
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars Keon Coleman, Bills Xavier Worthy, Chiefs Rome Odunze, Bears Christian Watson, Packers
We can call this the rookie tier, as it includes Thomas Jr., Coleman, Worthy and Odunze. All four have a chance to play prominent roles for their respective teams. Odunze, who will have to compete with Moore and Allen for targets in Chicago, might have the lowest ceiling of the quartet. Watson is hard to trust because of last season's injury woes, but he could also be a bargain.
Tier 11 – Mid WR4s
Adam Thielen, Panthers Mike Williams, Jets Jakobi Meyers, Raiders Curtis Samuel, Bills Brandin Cooks, Cowboys
Thielen and Williams will be no better than the second-best options in the passing games of their respective teams. Meyers might have hit his ceiling last season when he finished as the WR24, but he's still worth a late look. Samuel has some sleeper appeal in Buffalo, and Cooks will be a matchup-based option in what figures to be a highly productive Cowboys passing game.
Tier 12 – Low WR4s
Gabe Davis, Jaguars Jerry Jeudy, Browns Josh Downs, Colts DeMario Douglas, Patriots Josh Palmer, Chargers
There are a lot of recognizable names, but none of them come with target guarantees. Davis will have to compete with Thomas Jr. for a starting job in Jacksonville, and Jeudy will be the second or third option in the Browns passing game. Downs and Douglas have some deep sleeper appeal.
With the calendar hitting the middle of June, we are quickly getting into the fantasy football draft season. To help build your strategies and give you a look into what your drafts might look like, I’ve done yet another of my one-man, 10-round mock drafts to help you determine which fantasy players might be picked where in your upcoming leagues.
This mock draft includes 12 teams and is based on a full PPR scoring system. Each team is required to start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end and two flex starters (non-super flex).
No kickers or D/STs were required in this mock.
Each team went into the draft with a different strategy in the first five rounds.
1.1. Team 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers 1.2. Team 2: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys 1.3. Team 3: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins 1.4. Team 4: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings 1.5. Team 5: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions 1.6. Team 6: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals 1.7. Team 7: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons 1.8. Team 8: Breece Hall, RB, Jets 1.9. Team 9: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles 1.10. Team 10: Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles 1.11. Team 11: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions 1.12. Team 12: Puka Nacua, WR, Rams
Notes: This is going to be a mostly chalk top-12 picks. McCaffrey will lead the way, and Robinson, Hall, Barkley and Gibbs are all worth first-round picks at running back. Some might not think as highly about Barkley, but he was the RB13 last season in a lousy offense and missed three games. Imagine what he could be in Philadelphia! I have Lamb as the top wideout, slightly ahead of Hill and Jefferson (who has a questionable situation at quarterback but should still produce). In all, seven of the top 12 picks are wideouts. That includes Nacua, who busted out last season and now ranks far ahead of his veteran teammate in Los Angeles, Cooper Kupp.
ROUND 2
2.13. Team 12: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets 2.14. Team 11: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts 2.15. Team 10: Marvin Jarrison Jr., WR, Cardinals 2.16. Team 9: Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars 2.18. Team 7: Davante Adams, WR, Raiders 2.19. Team 6: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts 2.20. Team 5: Chris Olave, WR, Saints 2.21. Team 4: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers 2.22. Team 3: Drake London, WR, Falcons 2.23. Team 2: Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers 2.24. Team 1: Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
Notes: This round is also dominated by wide receivers, with seven coming off the board. That includes Wilson and Harrison Jr., who are both breakout candidates for fantasy fans. London is also in line for a career season with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, which has pushed him into the top 24. At running back, I have Williams in the top 20 despite some of his durability concerns and the addition of Blake Corum. I’m also in on Jacobs, now in Green Bay, to rebound from a poor 2023. I also like Henry to remain productive in purple.
ROUND 3
3.25. Team 1: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles 3.26. Team 2: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers 3.27. Team 3: Josh Allen, QB, Bills 3.28. Team 4: Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers 3.29. Team 5: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs 3.30. Team 6: De’Vone Achane, RB, Dolphins 3.31. Team 7: James Cook, RB, Bills 3.32. Team 8: DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks 3.33. Team 9: Nico Collins, WR, Texans 3.34. Team 10: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints 3.35. Team 11: Ken Walker, RB, Seahawks 3.36. Team 12: Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, 49ers
Notes: This is the first round we see a quarterback, as Hurts and Allen were picked in the top three. It’s also at this time when we see more running backs coming off the board, as White, Pacheco, Achane, Cook, Kamara and Walker all had their names called. White, Pacheco and Achane are RB1s for their respective teams, while Cook and Kamara are RB2s. Team 11, which went running back, running back, running back, landed Walker as its RB3. Of course, Walker will be more of a No. 2 runner in most drafts. The wideouts who came off the board include Evans, Metcalf, Collins and Samuel Sr.
ROUND 4
4.37. Team 12: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions 4.38. Team 11: DJ Moore, WR, Bears 4.39. Team 10: Stefon Diggs, WR, Texans 4.40. Team 9: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs 4.41. Team 8: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins 4.42. Team 7: Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles 4.43. Team 6: Joe Mixon, RB, Texans 4.44. Team 5: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs 4.45. Team 4: Malik Nabers, WR, Giants 4.46. Team 3: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens 4.47. Team 2: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams 4.48. Team 1: Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
Notes: LaPorta, the first tight end to come off the board, is also the first player taken in the round. Kelce, the top tight end in the previous five years, came in just a few spots later. The wide receiver feeding frenzy picked back up in the round too as seven more were drafted. That includes Diggs, who I have going one round behind his new teammate, Collins, and the second rookie wideout, Nabers. Kupp, who was a first-round pick last season, falls to the end of Round 4 after missing more games due to injuries last season, coupled with Nacua’s emergence into one of the elite wide receivers in fantasy football.
ROUND 5
5.49. Team 1: Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals 5.50. Team 2: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens 5.51. Team 3: D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears 5.52. Team 4: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots 5.53. Team 5: Zack Moss, RB, Bengals 5.54. Team 6: Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders 5.55. Team 7: Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars 5.56. Team 8: Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens 5.57. Team 9: James Conner, RB, Cardinals 5.58. Team 10: C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans 5.59. Team 11: Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers 5.60. Team 12: Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Notes: This round also starts with a tight end in McBride, who I see as a major breakout candidate. He has top-three upside as the Cardinals' unquestioned No. 1 option at the position. Three quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson are also called in this round. Several teams that went with wide receivers in the first three to four rounds are now looking for values as their No. 1 or 2 running back. Those included Swift, Stevenson, Moss, and Conner. I might have McConkey ranked a bit higher than some other analysts, but the target share potential with the Chargers is hard to ignore.
ROUND 6
6.61. Team 12: Zamir White, RB, Raiders 6.62. Team 11: Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals 6.63. Team 10: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills 6.64. Team 9: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals 6.65. Team 8: Jonathon Brooks, RB, Colts 6.66. Team 7: Nick Chubb, RB, Browns 6.67. Team 6: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys 6.68. Team 5: Geroge Pickens, WR, Steelers 6.69. Team 4: George Kittle, TE, 49ers 6.70. Team 3: Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings 6.71. Team 2: Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins 6.72. Team 1: Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
Notes: White, a potential breakout candidate as the new lead back in Las Vegas, is picked as an RB1 for Team 12. That squad started with three wideouts, a tight end and quarterback. Brooks is the first rookie runner off the board, while veteran Chubb drops out of the top 60 coming off a gruesome knee injury suffered last season. Kincaid, another tight end who could bust out, went a few spots ahead of Kittle. Mostert, who scored 21 touchdowns and was a top-five runner last season, lasts until the end of sixth round. Projected touchdown regression is an absolute draft killer!
ROUND 7
7.73. Team 1: Keenan Allen, WR, Bears 7.74. Team 2: David Montgomery, RB, Lions 7.75. Team 3: Tank Dell, WR, Texans 7.76. Team 4: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers 7.77. Team 5: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons 7.78. Team 6: Tony Pollard, RB, Titans 7.79. Team 7: Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars 7.80. Team 8: Jordan Love, QB, Packers 7.81. Team 9: Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders 7.82. Team 10: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos 7.83. Team 11: David Njoku, TE, Browns 7.84. Team 12: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders
Notes: Allen, whose stock took a dive when the Chargers traded him to the Bears, is the first pick of Round 7. He’ll serve as the No. 3 wideout for Team 1. The round includes just one more wideout, Dell, who also lost value due to personnel changes (most notably, the addition of Diggs). This was a running back heavy round with six coming off the board. That includes both Commanders runners, Ekeler and Robinson Jr., and Pollard. He’ll serve as the new projected starter in Tennessee, though a committee situation with Tyjae Spears could put a cap on his fantasy ceiling. There are also three tight ends in this round, with Pitts being picked first. With Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, this is his best shot to bust out and finally meet his lofty fantasy expectations.
ROUND 8
8.85. Team 12: Devin Singletary, RB, Giants 8.86. Team 11: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals 8.87. Team 10: Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans 8.88. Team 9: Diontae Johnson, WR, Panthers 8.89. Team 8: Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys 8.90. Team 7: Brock Purdy, QB 49ers 8.91. Team 6: Marquise Brown, WR, Chiefs 8.92. Team 5: Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers 8.93. Team 4: Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos 8.94. Team 3: Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers 8.95. Team 2: Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs 8.96. Team 1: Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
Notes: There are some nice potential values in the round, including quarterbacks Murray and Purdy. Singletary has never been a fantasy superstar, but he seems to have the Giants backfield all to himself and he knows the offense of coach Brian Daboll from their time in Buffalo. The round also includes both Chiefs wide receivers in Brown and Rice. No one knows if and for how long Rice will be suspended for his off-field issues, so he’s tough to project at this point. Still, these will be Kansas City’s projected starters in 2024.
ROUND 9
9.97. Team 1: Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans 9.98. Team 2: Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders 9.99. Team 3: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys 9.100. Team 4: Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders 9.101. Team 5: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks 9.102. Team 6: Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles 9.103. Team 7: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans 9.104. Team 8: Jameson Williams, WR, Lions 9.105. Team 9: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks 9.106. Team 10: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars 9.107. Team 11: Keon Coleman, WR, Bills 9.108. Team 12: Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
Notes: Round 9 is full of potential values, including Spears, Bowers, Daniels, JSN, and Williams. Personally, I have Daniels as a breakout candidate in his rookie season. I also like Williams, who is getting a lot of positive hype out of Detroit. The round ends with six wideouts, three of which are rookies. I have Smith-Njigba and Lockett coming off the board within a few picks of each other, but I’m higher on the former in his second year. Thomas Jr., Coleman, and Worthy could earn significant roles for their respective teams and could move up in future mocks. For now I like them as No. 4 fantasy receivers.
ROUND 10
10.109. Team 12: Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals 10.110. Team 11: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks 10.111. Team 10: Rome Odunze, WR, Bears 10.112. Team 9: Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens 10.113. Team 8: Jerome Ford, RB, Browns 10.114. Team 7: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons 10.115. Team 6: Chase Brown, RB, Bengals 10.116. Team 5: Christian Watson, WR, Packers 10.117. Team 4: Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons 10.118. Team 3: Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers 10.119. Team 2: Mike Williams, WR, Jets 10.120. Team 1: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
Notes: The second rookie running back, Benson, starts things off in the 10th. He’s one of six runners picked in the round, all of which are committee of handcuff options. Odunze might be more talented than some of the rookie wideouts who have been drafted ahead of him, but his landing spot was the least attractive causing his re-draft stock to fall. This is also the round where Cousins, who was on pace to throw for 5,000 yards last season, had his name called. Now in Atlanta, he should push for top-12 quarterback value.
The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.
This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.
The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.
That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.
In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.
In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.
Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”
2013 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4 Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7 Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16
2018 Los Angeles Rams Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1 Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4 Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8 Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4 Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6
2020 Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4
There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.
So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.
Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).
Six Seasons: Steelers
Five Seasons: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings
No Seasons: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens
Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.
What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!
The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.
Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.
