The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to select.
I’ve covered quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, and you can read about all three by clicking the links above, so now it’s time to look at the tight ends. This is probably the least important position in fantasy football, so most managers will wait to fill it rather than take one of the top-end options. As a result, tiers will be uber valuable.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Sam LaPorta, Lions Travis Kelce, Chiefs Mark Andrews, Ravens Trey McBride, Cardinals
This is the first time in years that Kelce isn’t either in his own tier or the top player at tight end. That’s due to a “down” statistical year by his high standards, coupled with LaPorta’s breakout and the fact that Kelce is entering his age-35 season. Andrews should remain a top-five option, and I’ve also included McBride in this tier. He finished seventh in points last season, and that came despite seeing just 10 targets in his first five games. He’s a big breakout candidate.
Kincaid, like McBride, showed flashes of potential last season and is in a great position to bust out in the stat sheets. Kittle’s points-per-game averages have dropped each of the last six years, but he’s still a surefire top-10 option. Engram, last season’s third-best tight end, could see some regression but remains a starter in fantasy leagues. Could this finally be the year we see Pitts reach his fantasy potential? With Kirk Cousins at the helm, he hasn’t had this good of a chance to be a fantasy asset since he joined the league.
Njoku had a career-best season, but his numbers were far better with Joe Flacco under center than Deshaun Watson. That could be a concern. Ferguson continued the trend of Cowboys tight ends making a fantasy impact, posting a top-10 finish. Bowers is one of the best tight-end prospects to come out of college since Pitts, so he’ll be a popular sleeper even as a rookie. Goedert’s stats have decreased lately, but he’s still a viable fantasy starter.
Tier 4 – High TE2s
Dalton Schultz, Texans Pat Freiermuth, Steelers Cole Kmet, Bears
This is where the tight-end position starts to fade in terms of reliable options. Schultz was the TE10 last season, but you must wonder how much Stefon Diggs will eat into his targets. Freiermuth was a fantasy dud last season, but I’m expecting him to rebound, at least at some level, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Kmet, last season’s TE8, will struggle to regain that level after the Bears added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett.
Tier 5 – Mid TE2s
Hunter Henry, Patriots Luke Musgrave, Packers T.J. Hockenson, Vikings Taysom Hill, Saints Cade Otton, Buccaneers
This tier includes two sleepers in Musgrave and Otton, while Henry and Hill (it’s not a Goodfellas reference) will be matchup-based starters in most leagues. Hockenson is the most difficult player to project. He’s established himself as an elite player and would be in Tier 1 had he not suffered a late-season ACL tear. With no real timetable for when he’ll be back, Hockenson is tough to recommend as more than a risk-reward, No. 2 tight end.
Tier 6 – Low TE2s
Daniel Bellinger, Giants Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans Ben Sinnott, Commanders Juwan Johnson, Saints Tyler Conklin, Jets
There are some deep sleepers in this tier, including Bellinger, Sinnott and Johnson. You could also throw Okonkwo into that category, though target share could be an issue with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd all in the Titans’ offense. Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz, but the rookie has great upside and is worth a late flier. Johnson, who showed flashes of potential late last year, could also outplay his draft position.
There are a number of players who have had past fantasy success in this tier, but there’s not a whole lot of upside. Higbee is coming off an injury, so his stock has taken a nosedive. Gesicki is in a crowded Bengals pass attack. Hurst hasn’t been a fantasy-relevant player in several seasons. Ertz could be limited in Washington’s offense with Sinnott on the roster. Fant is a matchup-based option at best.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues could be looking at this group as late-round flies, but in reality there’s not a ton of value. Smith is a strong pass catcher, but the Dolphins offense doesn’t feature the tight end. Likely’s value is limited with Mark Andrews ahead of him on the Baltimore depth chart. Green Bay is loaded with good, young weapons, which will hurt the value of Kraft, who I have behind his teammate Musgrave in the rankings. Woods could be a worthwhile, deep-league flier, while Oliver could have some appeal in Minnesota while T.J. Hockenson is recovering from a torn ACL.
Success in fantasy drafts is all about projecting which players are on the verge of a big season, and knowing who might take a step back in the numbers. It’s those players, who have been labeled as “busts” in the past, who can be the most detrimental to a fantasy manager’s chances at winning a title.
That might not be truer at a position than wide receiver.
The reason is simple: wideouts have emerged as the single most important position in all fantasy football. That means missing out on a high-end receiver can be tough to overcome. Case in point … fantasy managers who whiffed on Cooper Kupp last season probably had some major issues at the position, unless they picked up his teammate, Puka Nacua.
Most folks probably weren’t so fortunate, however.
With that in mind, here are eight receivers who will be high draft picks or are big names who could struggle to produce as prominent starters.
1. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
I had Adams listed as a player to beware last season, and he went on to post decreased totals in almost every statistical category. He still finished in the top 10 in points among wideouts, but he was wildly inconsistent. Adams scored fewer than 13 points in nine games, including five with single digits.
The Raiders don’t have an attractive quarterback situation with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew and the team drafted tight end Brock Bowers in the first round. That could affect Adams’ target share, at least to some degree. So, for those thinking Adams could return to elite fantasy status or that he’ll be more consistent, you might want to think again.
2. Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Diggs is coming off a disappointing second half of last season, which resulted in him averaging just 16.1 points per game. That was his lowest total with the Bills. Now in Houston, he joins a super-talented core of receivers that includes Nico Collins, who broke out last season, and Tank Dell, who was on his way to busting out before getting hurt. The team also boasts Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz and a new running back in Joe Mixon. Diggs will be hard-pressed to see anywhere near the target share he enjoyed in Buffalo. Unless injuries occur on the roster, Diggs can’t be trusted to retain his previously elite status.
3. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
I know, listing Kupp as a bust candidate after he was a bust last season is low-hanging fruit. And, honestly, part of me wants to put Nacua in the article. After all, we could be (and likely are) drafting him based on a magical, ceiling season in the stat sheets. But the truth is, Kupp has only played in 13 games in the last two years due to injuries, and he’s entering his age-31 season. That makes him a hard fade as a No. 1 wideout, and he’s even a risk as a No. 2.
4. Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Ridley was a top-20 fantasy wideout last year, but he was anything but reliable. He scored fewer than 12 points 10 times including nine where he scored single digits. Now in Tennessee, the veteran will be catching passes from a young quarterback in Will Levis and contending for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd. The Titans also have two good backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, so Ridley could be hard-pressed to see high target totals consistently. To me, he’s only a No. 3 wideout.
5. Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Allen was putting up monster numbers last year, but injuries cost him what might have been a career-best campaign. However, an offseason trade to the Bears makes him a lot less attractive from a fantasy standpoint. Their offense is led by a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and it’s loaded with talent that includes DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, making it unlikely that Allen will see 150-plus targets. If you do draft him, it should be as a No. 3 receiver.
6. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett is coming off a down season that saw his reception, yardage, and touchdown totals decrease compared to 2022. What’s more, his 11.9 point-per-game average was his lowest since 2017. Entering his age-31 season (he’ll turn 32 in September), I see Lockett falling behind teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the pecking order. That idea is playing out in drafts, as JSN is going ahead of Lockett based on average draft position. With the statistical arrow pointing downward, he shouldn’t be picked as more than a No. 4 option in drafts.
7. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson was considered a breakout player last year, but he went on to miss eight games due to injuries and was held to fewer than 12 points in all but two of the nine games he was active. His absence opened the door for teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to emerge into viable options for Jordan Love and fantasy managers. I’m not opposed to taking him in the later rounds as a No. 4 wideout, but I’m otherwise out on Watson.
8. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Thielen was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football in the first half of last season, averaging 20.2 points in his first seven games. The wheels fell off after that, however, as he dropped to 8.9 points in his final 10 contests. Aside from that, Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, so Thielen will struggle to see such a high target share again. Entering his age-34 season, he isn’t worth more than a late-round selection.
Greatness is difficult to achieve, and it can be even more difficult to duplicate. That’s why I always preach to fantasy football managers, new and old, to “beware the magical season" when preparing for drafts.
The NFL has had more than its share of players who failed to make good after a "magical" season. Remember Braylon Edwards, who looked like a fantasy star when he posted 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Browns in 2007? He went on to score 15 more touchdowns ... the rest of his career.
A more recent example is Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards and was the RB3 with the Raiders in 2022. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive last season. Jacobs rushed for 848 fewer yards and averaged 5.2 fewer fantasy points, finishing just 28th among fantasy runners.
There are countless other examples too, some of which include former gridiron greats. Heck, Dan Marino threw for almost 1,000 fewer passing yards and 18 fewer touchdowns (1985) following what was the best statistical campaign of his Hall-of-Fame career in 1984. Even Marino isn't exempt!
The point here is one monster season doesn't guarantee another, even if an elite athlete recorded it. So, which players who exceeded expectations last season might be in line for a decline in their statistical success in 2024?
Here's a list of 20 players, some of whom are elite fantasy players, who will still likely struggle to produce the same statistics from a season ago.
Josh Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns: Allen and Jalen Hurts both rushed for 15 scores a season ago, which is the most by a quarterback in league history. What’s more, there’s only been six quarterbacks to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in a single season in the Super Bowl era. That list includes Allen, Hurts (2), Cam Newton (2), Kyler Murray, Kordell Stewart and Daunte Culpepper. Allen had never rushed for more than nine touchdowns in a single season before this past season, so I expect that 15-score total to decline.
Jalen Hurts’ 15 rushing touchdowns: Hurts is in the same boat as Allen, as he’ll struggle to hit the 15-rushing touchdown total again. The good news, though, is Hurts hit double digits in that category each of his last three seasons. Still, I’m more comfortable with a 10-TD projection, especially with fantasy superstar running back Saquon Barkley in the backfield.
Justin Herbert’s 35.1 pass attempts per game: The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season under Kellen Moore, and Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served in that role for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. During that time, the most pass attempts one of his quarterbacks has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone QB to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert, who will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 35.1 attempts.
Matthew Stafford’s late-season run: Stafford finished last year as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performances just once before in his career (2013). I wouldn’t expect the veteran to duplicate such a productive span of games again.
Breece Hall’s 95 targets and 76 receptions: Hall finished last season as the RB2, due in part to a serious statistical run in the second half that saw him emerge as a huge option in the Jets pass attack. In his first eight games, Hall averaged 3.9 targets and 2.9 catches. He went off in his final 10 games, however, averaging a stout 6.8 targets and 5.7 receptions.
That rise in targets and catches came in large part because of the quarterbacks the Jets were using. Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle started a combined five games (played in eight), and they targeted Hall a ton out of the backfield. The duo combined to target running backs on nearly 30 percent of their pass attempts! By comparison, Aaron Rodgers targeted his runners as receivers in just 20.7% of his passes in his last season in Green Bay.
Raheem Mostert’s 21 touchdowns: Mostert came out of nowhere to score 21 times last season. He had scored just 19 touchdowns in his previous eight years … combined! Those touchdowns made up for 47 percent of his 267.7 points, so regression is coming. Heck, even if Mostert scores eight to 10 touchdowns in 2024, I’d consider that a major win as a fantasy manager.
Aaron Jones’ late-season touches: Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush, and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged a robust 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 fantasy points. That is a massive increase for the veteran runner.
If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He also rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this “magical” stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games! So, as good as he was in this stretch, it’s likely to be an outlier.
Gus Edwards’ 13 rushing touchdowns: Edwards was a red-zone machine last season, scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground. He had rushed for 13 touchdowns in his previous four years … combined! So, while he will be in the run-based offense of new coordinator Greg Roman in Los Angeles, Edwards will have competition for touches in the form of J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal. Six to eight touchdowns might be more attainable.
Puka Nacua’s 1,575 receiving yards: Nacua was a stat monster last season, finishing fourth in fantasy points among wideouts. He did it, in large part, based on his rookie-record 1,575 receiving yards. That begs the question … what if Cooper Kupp stays healthy for most of this season?
After all, Nacua averaged 78.7 yards in the 12 games he played with Kupp last season. That would be around 1,338 yards over a full season. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 108.4 yards. That would project to over 1,840 yards. So, anyone who is drafting Nacua in the first round and expecting a duplication of his 2023 yardage totals has to be doing so with the thought Kupp is going to miss a portion of the season. If not, Nacua might end up being less productive in terms of real and fantasy football.
Stefon Diggs 160 targets: Diggs averaged 9.4 targets per game last season and was sixth in targets among wideouts. It was the fourth straight year he had seen at least 154 targets. That trend is unlikely to continue though, as he now joins a crowded receiver’s room with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. With Collins averaging 7.3 targets per game and Dell at just under seven, it’s difficult to see Diggs getting over nine per game, not to mention 160 targets. Instead, I’d project him for closer to 130-140 unless injuries occur.
Keenan Allen’s 1,249 receiving yards: Some might have forgotten because he was injured late in the season, but Allen was an elite fantasy wideout in his first 13 games. That won’t be the case this season, though. With his move to the Bears, he’ll have to share targets with DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. Also, keep this in mind … the Bears have had only nine wide receivers post 1,000-plus yards in the Super Bowl era. What’s more, the offense has produced multiple 1,000-yard WRs in the same season twice (1995, 2013).
Courtland Sutton’s 85.6% catchable target rate: Sutton finished as the WR35 last year, which came even though he scored 10 touchdowns and was third among wideouts (min. 75 targets) in catchable target rate. That came because of Russell Wilson, who ranked third in adjusted completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 10 games played. That stat factors in drops, spikes, throwaways, hits as the ball is thrown and batted balls, per Fantasy Points Data. With a rookie in Bo Nix or Zach Wilson (QB21 in ADJ CMP%), Sutton will likely see far fewer accurate passes in the Broncos offense.
Rashee Rice late-season target share: Rice was one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football in the second half of last season, ranking WR8 based on points over the final eight weeks. In that time, he saw 23.9% of the wide receiver targets in Kansas City, compared to a 12.6% share in his first 10 contests. The Chiefs added Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy in the offseason, however, which will no doubt put a dent into Rice’s share. He is also expected to be suspended for off-field issues, decreasing his value further.
DeAndre Hopkins’ 137 targets: Hopkins has long been a fantasy star, but he’s started to lose a little of his sparkle. He posted an average of 13.2 fantasy points per game last year, which is his lowest total since his rookie campaign, and it took him 137 targets to do it. With the addition of Calvin Ridley, who saw 136 targets last season, not to mention Tyler Boyd, who knows the offense of new head coach Brian Callahan, and Nuk’s target share is in serious danger of dropping even further as he enters his age-33 campaign.
Jordan Addison’s 10 receiving touchdowns: Addison finished a solid WR23 as a rookie, mostly on the strength of his 10 touchdown catches. The problem is seven of those scores came with Kirk Cousins throwing him the football. In the nine games without him, Addison found the end zone just three times. Who knows, maybe journeyman San Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy will exceed expectations, but 10 scores for Addison seems unlikely.
Adam Thielen’s 231 PPR fantasy points: Thielen was a star in the first half of last season, ranking eighth in fantasy points among wideouts while averaging 17.8 points. His stats went south the rest of the season, however, as Thielen was the WR43 in his final eight games with an average of 8.9 points. With the additions of Dionte Johnson and Xavier Legette, Thielen will struggle to hit even the 200-point mark during his age-34 campaign.
Evan Engram’s 963 receiving yards: Engram is coming off a career season that saw him put up 963 yards, which is 197 more yards than his previous high (2022). Fantasy managers should keep in mind, however, he was more effective when Christian Kirk was out. In five games without Kirk, Engram averaged a robust 71.4 yards. Compare that to the 50.5 yards he averaged when Kirk was active, and it’s obvious Engram’s ceiling was affected. Also, the Jaguars added Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. in the offseason.
David Njoku’s 882 receiving yards: Njoku was a fantasy star last season, finishing sixth among tight ends in total fantasy points. He was also sixth in yards at the position. Where I’m concerned is in his splits with and without Deshaun Watson. When Joe Flacco was in place of an injured Watson, Njoku averaged 78 yards per game. With Watson under center, that total shrunk to a modest 38.3 yards. The Browns also added wideout Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, so Njoku could be hard-pressed to post more than 650 yards.
Cole Kmet’s touchdown market share: Kmet was a popular target for Justin Fields in the red zone last season, posting a 31.6% receiving touchdown market share (min. 75 targets) per Fantasy Points Data. That was second best behind only Sam LaPorta. Unfortunately, that percentage seems destined to fall with the trio of Moore, Allen, and Odunze at wide receiver, not to mention the addition of veteran tight end Gerald Everett, in 2024.
Jonnu Smith’s 70 targets: There was a time last season when Smith was a startable asset in fantasy leagues, even outscoring his former teammate, Kyle Pitts. Unfortunately, his move to Miami will not benefit him in the stat sheets. Since coach Mike McDaniel took over the offense, his tight ends have averaged a league-low 2.2 fantasy points per game. Their tight ends also ranked dead last in targets, receptions and yards, and they’re tied for the second-fewest touchdowns scored. That’s bad news for Smith’s fantasy appeal.
The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.
This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.
The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.
That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.
In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.
In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.
Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”
2013 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4 Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7 Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16
2018 Los Angeles Rams Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1 Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4 Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8 Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4 Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6
2020 Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4
There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.
So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.
Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).
Six Seasons: Steelers
Five Seasons: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings
No Seasons: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens
Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.
What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!
The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.
Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.