There are several key trends to know ahead of Game 1, starting with Boston’s record as a home favorite. The C’s are 26-21-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points per game.
Boston also has the best against the spread record in the first half of games this season (63-32-1).
Dallas Mavericks on the Road
The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 against the spread on the road, but we can break that down even further.
As a road underdog, Dallas is 14-11 against the spread, which isn’t as great, but it thrived as a road favorite, going 20-5 ATS. Unfortunately, the Mavs are road dogs in Game 1.
Game 1 Favorites Dominate Since 2005
Since 2005 Game 1 favorites are an insane 16-3 against the spread, and going back the past 30 years, they are 21-9 against the spread.
Boston is favored by 6.5 points in Game 1, and it has covered in two of the three opening games of its playoff series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Game 2 of the NBA Finals is upon us, and there are only so many more days that we can bet on the NBA this season, so why not take advantage of them with a few player prop picks?
Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks ended up being a blowout, but it was an educational game in terms of how these teams are going to match up.
We learned that Kristaps Porzingis was going to come off the bench, Boston was going to play Luka Doncic straight up, and Dallas’ lob threats weren't going to have an easy time at the rim.
There is one prop I took in Game 1 – Jrue Holiday’s points, rebounds, and assists – that I’m going back to on Sunday night, along with two more plays to round out the betting card.
Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
Kristaps Porzingis came off the bench for Boston in Game 1 and dominated the game in the 21 minutes that he played, shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc.
While he didn’t play his usual minutes, Porzingis still attempted the second-most shots on the team and was a clear focal point on the Boston offense.
I’m eyeing his 3-point prop in Game 2, as he’s had a ton of success against Dallas in this market this season. In his lone regular-season meeting with the Mavs, KP drilled four of his eight shots from beyond the arc.
Dallas switched a lot in Game 1, giving Porzingis some favorable matchups to shoot over smaller defenders. If that continues, I imagine he keeps letting it fly from 3. KP shot 37.5 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Jrue Holiday did a little bit of everything in Game 1, finishing with 12 points (4-for-9 shooting), eight rebounds, and five assists to clear his PRA prop of 22.5.
Oddsmakers are setting this at the same number in Game 2, and I’ll gladly take the OVER again on the Celtics point guard.
Holiday has now cleared this line in every game since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals and seven of his last eight contests while averaging 16.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game over that stretch.
There aren’t a ton of shots to go around in the Boston offense, but Holiday still got a decent share in Game 1 and did a lot of the dirty work on the glass as well. Until he starts missing this number consistently, he’s a must-bet for me in Game 2.
PJ Washington OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-135)
Dallas forward PJ Washington had a big game on the glass in Game 1 with the Celtics spreading out the Dallas defense.
Washington finished with eight rebounds in the loss, the ninth time in 12 times that he’s cleared this total (dating back to the start of the second round against Oklahoma City).
For the playoffs, Washington has just one game where he finished with less than five rebounds, and he’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game overall.
Dallas needs him on the floor defensively, and this is a favorable matchup for him to hit the glass on the defensive end since both of Boston’s centers stretch the floor and aren’t always parked in the paint (like Rudy Gobert was in the Western Conference Finals).
This is a great number to land Washington at him Game 2.
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After ending the Miami Heat's season with a 118-84 victory in Game 5 at TD Garden on Wednesday night, the Boston Celtics are on to the second round where they'll face the winner of the first round series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic.
The ultimate outcome of Boston moving on to the second round past the shorthanded Heat was expected, but after the Celtics lost Game 2 of the series in stunning fashion, critics bashed the toughness of this Celtics' core, led by stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Why did the Celtics lose to the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals? Fans and media critics pointed to Boston's lack of toughness.
Why did the Celtics lose to the Miami Heat in seven games in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals? Fans and media critics once again pointed to Boston's lack of toughness.
So with fans and media questioning Boston's toughness earlier in the series, did it get to Tatum at all? Don't count on it.
"No, I think [in] the world we live in, it's gotta be something wrong with every team," Tatum told the media Wednesday night. "That's what they like to say. You can see how talented we are. I think it's lazy, or easy, to say that teams can out-tough us, right? I never understood that. What's the definition of tough? Having louder guys on your team? That s--- don't make you tough. Everybody has their own definition of what toughness is. It's playing the right way, showing up every day to do your job without complaining. I think that's being tough."
Tatum: "What’s the definition of tough? Having the louder guys on your team? That shit don’t make you tough. Everybody has their own definition of what toughness is. It’s playing the right way, showing up every day to do your job without complaining. I think that's being tough.” pic.twitter.com/SRzn1vdA6x
Whether Tatum likes it or not, the Celtics have had their fair share of head-scratching losses with their young superstar core over the past few postseasons, and in many cases, those losses have kept Boston from reaching its ultimate goal of winning an NBA championship.
The Celtics are hoping to break that trend with a title later this summer.
Returning to the Boston lineup for the first time in more than five weeks, Porzingis was outstanding, finishing Game 1 with 20 points (on 8 for 13 shooting), six rebounds and three blocks. Coming off the bench for the first time this season, Porzingis made an immediate impact, racking up 11 points in the first seven minutes, helping the Celtics build a 37–20 lead.
“Even if I have time off, I can jump right back in and I feel the same way,” Porzingis said. “I get to my spots, so whether it’s playoffs, regular season or whatever, I know how to do this. That’s it, just having that confidence, going out there whatever, first round or Finals, just going out there with full confidence and giving what I have to the team.”
As solid as Boston was during the conference playoffs—and the Celtics lost just one game after Porzingis went out in the first round with a calf injury—Porzingis’s return clearly makes Boston measurably better. Porzingis torched the Mavericks offensively, exploiting switches and forcing Dallas’s bigs to chase him beyond the three-point line. Defensively, Porzingis was a menace; the shots he didn’t block he contested and on screens he all but dared the Mavs wing players to take the ball to the rim.
“He was great for them,” Mavericks star guard Luka Doncic said. “He was knocking down shots. He was blocking shots. So he was really, really huge for them on both ends of the floor.”
As thrilled as the Celtics were to get Porzingis back, the 7’2” big man was happier to be there. He received a loud ovation when he came out to warm up hours before the game. And the crowd exploded when Porzingis popped up on the JumboTron making the walk down the back hallway and onto the floor.
“Getting that kind of support was unreal,” Porzingis said. “The adrenaline was pumping through my veins and that definitely helped. Obviously, it wasn’t ideal that I was out for such a long time, but I did everything I could to prepare mentally for this moment coming back. And it paid off and we got the job done tonight and had a good game and [I’m] happy about the result.”
Entering this series, the Celtics believed they were uniquely equipped to defend Doncic. They had two All-Defensive Team members (Jrue Holiday and Derrick White) and Jaylen Brown, who probably deserved to be on one. Doncic got his points (30 on 12 for 26 shooting) but finished the game with one assist, his lowest total of the season. The lobs that powered Dallas’s offense in the conference finals? Gone. The corner threes? Taken away. The Mavericks’ nine assists were their lowest total of the season.
“They did a great job defending, making it tough on us,” Dallas head coach Jason Kidd said. “We had some good looks that didn’t go down. We’ve got to move the ball. The ball just stuck too much.”
Said Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla, “I thought our defensive mindset, our defensive execution, our defensive game plan, our positioning, we had the right intentions and I thought we played really physical, for the most part, defending without fouling.”
Doncic finished with 30 points but had only one assist, his lowest total of the season. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Credit Brown, who glued himself to Doncic for most of his 37 minutes. Brown has the size and strength to stay in front of Doncic and the discipline not to bite on any of his pump-fakes. By not sending double teams, Boston shut down the rest of the Dallas offense; when Kidd waved the white flag in the fourth quarter, only two other Mavericks (Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington) had scored in double figures and neither had more than 14 points.
“What you saw tonight is kind of the challenge he took for himself coming into the year,” Mazzulla said. “Not wanting to be defined by one thing. Wanting to make plays. Wanting to be a well-rounded player and get better and better. So his spacing, his ball movement, his defense on ball and off ball.”
The much-talked-about hostility from the TD Garden crowd toward Irving never materialized; it’s tough to get too fired up when your team spent most of the game leading by double digits. Irving’s return to Boston was a dismal one: 12 points (on 6 for 19 shooting), two assists and three turnovers. While Irving had to contend with Holiday most of the night, the ex–All-Star missed a lot of open looks, including several beyond the three-point line and three in the third quarter, when Dallas briefly cut the lead to single digits.
“They really rely on their great defensive ball pressure and one-on-one defenders,” Irving said. “They funnel us into certain areas. Even as I say that, that they are relying on the one-on-one, every time I got an iso, there’s almost two, three people waiting for me to get in there. I have to catch the ball on a live dribble and just be aware of my opportunities.”
The Celtics have been burying opponents in three-pointers all season, finishing first in the league in attempts (42.5 per game) and second in percentage (38.8%). In Game 1, the Celtics were 7 for 15 from three-point range in the first quarter, helping build the double-digit lead they wouldn’t surrender.
Hauser had a rough conference finals, connecting on 12.5% of his shots and making just one three in a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers. He shook that off in Game 1, collecting eight points and making both of his three-point attempts. When Dallas went Hauser-hunting in the first half, he responded, locking up Doncic on two possessions and forcing Irving into a missed three.
Hauser shook off a rough conference finals to post a solid outing in Game 1 of the Finals. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
NBA commissioner Adam Silver didn’t provide one at his annual pre-Finals news conference. Silver declined to comment on reports the NBA had agreed to the framework of deals with ESPN, NBC and Amazon while passing on a specific question about whether or not Warner Bros. Discovery—the parent company for longtime NBA broadcast partner Turner—had the right to match any deal.
“It’s complicated for several reasons,” Silver said. “One is the advent of new platforms, particularly streaming, and the interest of streaming companies, and then the traditional media companies also carrying our games on streaming platforms. It’s complicated with multiple partners all seeking similar assets. In many cases, just figuring out the right way to balance those games as they go to different partners.
“We tend to do long-term deals. We think that’s good for the stability of the league, but it means, to a certain extent, you’re trying to predict the future, which is, of course, impossible. So part of it is a bet on the partners that we will ultimately align with and their ability also to adjust with the times and their willingness to continue to invest in media and also become global, which is very important to the league as well.”
