The NFL news cycle slows to a crawl in June and July, making those months the perfect time for big team announcements that have little to do with how the roster will perform this upcoming season. On Thursday, the Minnesota Vikings did just that by unveiling their brand new all-white alternate uniforms— and fans loved them.
The organization dropped a release video featuring the team’s stars like Justin Jefferson and Harrison Smith showcasing the new kits. Appropriately, it was accompanied with the caption, “The coldest uniforms in the game.”
Big name NFL media personalities further revealed still images of the alternates on X (formerly Twitter).
The #Vikings are unveiling sweet alternate unis, including an all-white helmet, to be worn for a winter whiteout game on Monday, Dec. 16. pic.twitter.com/6HCIheH5vz
Behold: The Vikings’ “Winter Warrior” alternative uniforms. White satin helmet, gray stripe on pants, gold removed. They’ll be worn for Monday Night Football, Dec. 16 vs. Bears. pic.twitter.com/rxNsUuvqui
These sorts of uniform announcements can sometimes go sideways if football fans decide they do not like them. But the Vikes’ new threads have largely been praised in the immediate aftermath of the announcement.
Sometimes the answer to “why?” is “because it’s going to look phenomenal on the field.” And let there be no doubt: the Vikings Winter Warrior uniform is going to look phenomenal on the field.
— Tim – World’s Strongest Kyler Super Collector (@bigwerms) June 6, 2024
As noted above, Minnesota will debut these uniforms on Monday Night Football against the division rival Chicago Bears and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams on December 16. Fortunately the game is at U.S. Bank Stadium, so there won’t be any potential snow issues. Imagine wearing these hours after a snowstorm swept through Chicago and Soldier Field. Visibility would be an issue.
But the Vikings and their dome don’t need to worry about such things. It’ll be exciting to see them in action.
Stats. They can be deceiving, especially in the world of fantasy football.
Case in point … in 2022, Miles Sanders rushed for over 1,200 yards, scored 11 total touchdowns, and was the RB15. Seems pretty good, right? Well, what if I told you he scored fewer than 12 points in 10-of-17 games (59%), and 41 percent of his points came in three games? Suddenly, Sanders isn’t looking so good … and that showed in 2023.
With that in mind, I dove into the numbers and picked out 25 nuggets you need to know before you draft your fantasy football teams in 2024. Some surround false perceptions of players, like Sanders in 2022, while others point out how coaching changes did and could affect future player outcomes. Others discuss player personnel moves and how those will positively or negatively affect how a player performs in 2024.
So, sit back, relax, read and make sure to keep these nuggets in mind when you draft!
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen averaged 22.5 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator last season. During that time, the Bills ranked 13th in pass percentage and 20th in run percentage. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Allen averaged 24.1 points (seven games). The Bills went from 13th to 31st in pass percentage and from 20th to second in run percentage. Those are notable differences.
C.J. Stroud threw the ball 499 times last season. That tied for 14th among quarterbacks. His leading receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, averaged 7.3 targets and 6.8 targets per game, respectively. Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with the Bills, averaged 9.4 targets per game last season. If we project these target totals over a full season, Stroud would throw the ball 400 times to Diggs, Collins and Dell alone for them to meet those averages.
In Kliff Kingsbury’s five seasons as the head coach in Arizona, Kyler Murray averaged 6.5 rushes and 37.7 rushing yards per game. He also rushed for 26 touchdowns. That is good news for rookie Jayden Daniels, who will work under Kingsbury in Washington. In his final two seasons at LSU, Daniels rushed 321 times for 2,019 yards and 21 scores.
Jared Goff is scheduled to play 14 of his 17 games this season in either a dome or a retractable roof stadium. In his 25 career home games in Detroit, Goff has averaged 19.3 fantasy points. Ford Field, of course, is a dome. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in six road games in a dome or retractable roof stadium as a member of the Lions, Goff has averaged a mere 10.5 points. So, even if he’s played in a dome or retractable roof stadium, Goff has still not finished with great numbers when he hasn’t played at home.
The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season with Kellen Moore leading the offense. Justin Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served as OC for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. In that time, his offenses finished 30th, 30th, 32nd, 26th, 32nd, 31st, 32nd, 21st and 30th in pass percentage. The most pass attempts one of his field generals has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone quarterback to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert.
Matthew Stafford finished last season as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performance just once before in his career (2013). Also notable is that Stafford averaged 17 points in the 11 games where he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available.
Deshaun Watson has started and finished 11 games over the last two seasons with the Browns, averaging 15.8 fantasy points. It should be noted, however, that he was better last season (17.7 points per game) than in 2022, when he averaged just 14.3 points after an extended absence from the league due to off-field issues. That includes three games where he scored at least 18.9 points. While it was just five games, Watson was still an asset.
The Cincinnati Bengals ranked second in pass percentage last year under former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. On the flip side, the team ranked 31st in run percentage. By comparison, the Tennessee Titans, Callahan’s new team, were 24th in pass percentage and ninth in run percentage. With Callahan now leading the Titans offense and Derrick Henry no longer on the roster, those numbers are destined to change. That’s good news for Will Levis, who has some fantasy sleeper/breakout appeal in what should be a pass-laden attack.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs played 13 games last season, averaging 20.7 touches and 13.9 points. He also averaged 2.6 yards per rush, which was a drop of almost three full yards compared to 2022. When Jacobs missed the last four games, Zamir White took over as the main running back in Las Vegas. He averaged 23.3 touches and 15.2 points during that time, bettering Jacobs in both categories. With Jacobs now in Green Bay, White will be a popular breakout back.
James Cook averaged 14.4 touches (12 rushes) and 11.8 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey at the helm of the Bills offense. When Joe Brady took over as the new offensive coordinator, Cook averaged 19.6 touches (16.7 rushes) and 16.4 PPR points. That’s an increase of nearly five fantasy points under Brady’s guidance. Cook could be on the verge of a big season, so I can see him being picked as early as the third round in drafts.
The addition of Zach Charbonnet didn’t put a huge dent into Ken Walker’s touch share last season. In 14 games where both running backs were active, Walker averaged 16 touches to Charbonnet’s 7.4 touches. In his first two seasons in the NFL, before the Seahawks drafted Charbonnet, Walker averaged 17 and 16.5 touches, respectively. So, unless things change with the new coaching staff, Walker should still be seen as a solid No. 2 runner.
Raheem Mostert averaged 15.6 touches and 17.9 fantasy points in 15 games last season. In six contests played without De’Vone Achane, he averaged 14.5 touches and 16.6 points. In nine games played with Achane in the lineup, Mostert averaged 16.3 touches and 18.7 points. So, Mostert was surprisingly betterand more productive when Achane was active.
Najee Harris averaged 16.7 touches and 11.6 fantasy points per game last season. He also averaged 0.69 points per touch. His teammate, Jaylen Warren, averaged 12.4 touches and 11.5 points per game. He averaged 0.94 points per touch. So, while Harris is going a few rounds higher than Warren in drafts based on current ADP data, the latter runner was more efficient last season and will no doubt be a better bargain in your fantasy drafts.
Aaron Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 points. If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this magical stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games in his career. When you also consider that his overall points-per-game average has declined five straight years dating back to 2019, and that incredibly productive stretch of games looks like a massive outlier.
In six games as the featured running back in New England last season, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 20 touches (14.8 rushes). He averaged just 2.9 yards per rush, however, and 66 percent of his total PPR fantasy points in those games came as a receiver. Now back in Dallas, I wouldn’t expect a lot from Zeke as a runner. In fact, he’ll need to be used as a receiver and get the majority of the red zone carries to hit his flex starter ceiling.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson averaged 7.2 catches, 114.2 yards and scored three touchdowns in five games with Kirk Cousins under center last season. In those games, he averaged 21.8 fantasy points. In his five games without Cousins (Nick Mullen was under center), he averaged 6.4 catches, 100.6 yards and scored two touchdowns. Jefferson still put up a solid 18.6 points per game in those contests. With Cousins now in Minnesota, Jefferson will be catching passes from either rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy or veteran journeyman Sam Darnold. It’s a downgrade, but he’s still a top-five wideout.
Speaking of Cousins, just 12.5 percent of his throws last season could be labeled as “bad” (excluding spikes or throwaways). His catchable throw percentage was 81.4. In Atlanta, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke threw “bad” passes almost 20 percent of the time. Ridder’s catchable throw percentage was 75.5, while Heinicke’s was 63.2. Their combined off-target throw percentage was 22.8. Obviously, Cousins’ presence is great news for the fantasy potential of breakout candidate Drake London, whose ADP is moving up.
Puka Nacua played 12 games with Cooper Kupp last season. He averaged 5.2 catches, 78.7 yards and scored four touchdowns in those games. His fantasy point average was 15.7. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 8.6 catches, 108.4 yards and scored two touchdowns. His fantasy point average was 21.9 points. That is more than a six-point increase in games where Kupp was out. If Kupp can avoid injuries this season, Nacua, a first-round fantasy selection, will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 2023 totals.
Davante Adams averaged 6.5 catches, 67 yards and scored five touchdowns in 11 games with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Las Vegas Raiders. In that time, he averaged 15.9 fantasy points. He also scored 12-plus PPR points in all but two games, including five games with more than 15 points. If we project his average points scored with O’Connell under center over 17 games, Adams will score 270 points. That would be slightly more fantasy points than he scored last season (265.4), so Adams remains a fantasy WR1.
Michael Pittman Jr. averaged nearly 12 targets and 18 fantasy points in his three full games with Anthony Richardson under center in 2023. That’s a small sample size, but it’s notable. In his other 13 games without Richardson, Pittman Jr. averaged 9.4 targets and 15.1 fantasy points. He also scored just three touchdowns in that time. So, the concerns about Pittman seeing his stat declining with Richardson under center shouldn’t be so prominent.
Stefon Diggs averaged 10.2 targets and 20.2 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. He scored seven touchdowns in those games. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Diggs averaged 8.2 targets and 10.3 points (seven games), and was held to one touchdown. Now in Houston, Diggs’ targets-per-game average could top off at around eight, as he’ll have to share the workload with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. I see him as a No. 2 fantasy wideout this season.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram averaged 13.6 points last season, which was good enough to finish fourth among tight ends. It should be noted, however, he averaged 10.4 points in his first 11 games. While that’s certainly respectable, that average swelled to 19.3 points in his final six contests. During that time, he scored at least 17.5 points four times including three games with more than 23 points and one with more than 32 points. In his prior 53 games between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants, he scored at least 17.5 points just twice. So, that six-game stretch was a massive career outlier. I’d expect some regression.
David Njoku averaged 4.1 catches, 38.3 yards and scored one touchdown in six games with Watson under center last season. In that time, he averaged 8.7 points. In his five games with Joe Flacco, Njoku averaged 7.5 catches, 78 yards and scored four touchdowns. Those totals were good enough to average 18.2 points per game, which is nearly 10 more points than he averaged with Watson at the helm. Flacco is no longer in Cleveland, so fantasy fans have to hope his totals with Watson improve. Otherwise, he could be a dud.
Trey McBride averaged three targets and 4.6 fantasy points in his first seven games of last season while playing with Zach Ertz. When Ertz went down with an injury, McBride averaged 8.5 targets and nearly 15 fantasy points the rest of the season. He’ll be one of the most popular breakout tight ends in 2024 fantasy football drafts. In fact, I have him ranked in my initial tier with Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
No tight end in the league who played in at least 15 games and saw at least 75 targets last season had a lower catchable pass percentage than Kyle Pitts. The tight end who saw the second-most catchable passes based on those same parameters was T.J. Hockenson, who played most of his games with Cousins. Now the starting quarterback in Atlanta, Cousins should help Pitts finally meet his lofty statistical and fantasy expectations in 2024.
It's a cycle that repeats itself and has many ripple effects, the most prevalent of which is that players at these positions just keep making more and more money. Each new superstar deal sets the stage for the next.
It is obviously well-deserved for Jefferson. It is also a boon for other wide receivers around his level who are negotiating their own big-time contracts. Here are four receivers in particular who will benefit from Jefferson's record-setting deal in their respective negotiations.
Lamb is the name you'll probably see the most floating around in the wake of the Jefferson deal. The Cowboys star earned first-team All-Pro honors in 2023, posting a league-leading 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. Pound-for-pound, he may not be as talented as Jefferson but he is definitely in a similar tier of game-changing receiver— and he should get paid like it, too.
In addition to their other similarities, Lamb was part of Jefferson's draft class, meaning he is entering the final year of his rookie contract and should receive an extension this offseason from the franchise that drafted him. That extension will now be much pricier with Jefferson's deal in place. Jerry Jones has been insisting all offseason that the Cowboys are "all in" for 2024, but the lack of extensions for Lamb and quarterback Dak Prescott have been a big talking point.
Regardless of when the deal gets done (and who it gets done with), Lamb will be negotiating from a position of strength after Jefferson reset the market and it would not be a surprise to see him end up the highest-paid receiver in the league.
Chase is one of the few wideouts who can lay legitimate claim to Jefferson's throne as best receiver in the NFL. He's a legitimate game-breaker who can and will dominate defenses on the right day. In 2023, Chase posted an even 100 catches for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing two games to injury and catching passes from multiple different quarterbacks amid Joe Burrow's own injury-plagued campaign.
With an All-Pro nomination to his name already in his young career, Chase is often tabbed as the next receiver to sign a truly ludicrous deal. Lamb is likely next in line to reset the market but Chase is going to demand even bigger money given his immediate and overwhelming dominance from Day 1.
The interesting aspect of Chase's situation, however, is that he still has two seasons left on his rookie deal. This gives the Bengals more leverage than other teams on this list because they have a full extra offseason to get him under contract before he enters the final year of his deal. Cincinnati is incentivized to get it done as soon as possible, because as laid out above, the price tag will just keep going up. Jefferson's deal isn't too bad a starting point for either side.
Chase is set to get paid, either this offseason or the next.
Aiyuk has been in trade rumors all offseason so who knows where he'll end up by the time the season kicks off in September. Wherever that may be, he will almost certainly sign a new deal in the coming months; he is entering the final year of his rookie contract and will want a raise from someone. The Jefferson contract will give him a big boost.
Unlike the above two players, Aiyuk is not quite in that superstar tier level of player that will break multiple records upon putting pen to paper. He had 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023, and playing in Kyle Shanahan's incredibly productive offense probably hurts more than helps him.
Even acknowleding that, Aiyuk will have the advantage of the Jefferson contract that St. Brown did not. He should be in line for a larger payday than he was before.
Higgins was franchise-tagged by the Bengals this offseason after playing out the final year of his deal. A lot of what happens with Higgins will depend on what happens with Chase, but negotiations between Higgins and the Bengals are essentially non-existent at this juncture, according to the latest reports, and he's yet to sign the tag. So it's really anybody's guess right now as to how long Higgins is meant for Cincinnati and if he'll sign a new deal there or elsewhere.
However, when Higgins does get to the negotiating table, the Jefferson deal will be very helpful. Like Aiyuk, Higgins is not a superstar, but he's very good and can reasonably assert he'll post even better numbers as the No. 1 option instead of across from a talent like Chase. As is, Higgins recorded 42 catches for 656 yards and five touchdowns last season-- all career-lows, stemming from injury problems that forced him to miss six games and the same quarterback issues that Chase had to deal with.
He is in line for a nice raise one way or the other, and the Jefferson contract will help as a reference point in negotiations.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to pick.
I’ve covered quarterbacks and running backs, so now let’s look at wide receivers. This is now the most important position in fantasy football, especially in leagues that award points for receptions. It’s also the deepest position, as more teams have leaned on the pass attack in recent seasons. We’ve also seen a lot of wide receivers come out of the collegiate ranks and make an immediate impact (many of whom you’ll see in the first several tiers).
Tier 1 – The Elite
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys Tyreek Hill, Dolphins Justin Jefferson, Vikings Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
Lamb moved past Hill and Jefferson as the top wideout in fantasy football after a career 2023 season that saw him post 403.2 points. Hill, the WR2 last season, remains a close second. Jefferson remains in my top three, but the loss of Kirk Cousins brings at least some questions due to the state of the Vikings quarterback situation. He’ll be catching passes from either rookie J.J. McCarthy or journeyman Sam Darnold. St. Brown is locked in as a top-five wideout, and Chase remains among the elite with a healthy Joe Burrow in Cincinnati.
Brown finished fifth in fantasy points among wideouts last season, but he faded down the stretch. Still, he’ll be a first-round selection in most drafts. Nacua, who came out of nowhere to rank fourth in points among wideouts, will be a top-24 overall pick. You must wonder if he can duplicate such a magical season, however, especially if Cooper Kupp can avoid injuries. Wilson is a popular breakout candidate, as he’ll have Aaron Rodgers under center. I am very high on Harrison Jr. coming into his rookie season, which is obvious as I have him listed as a potential low-WR1. He'll be a top-36 pick.
Tier 3 – Low WR1s
Davante Adams, Raiders Chris Olave, Saints Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers Drake London, Falcons Mike Evans, Buccaneers Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
Adams was inconsistent in the stat sheets last year but still finished in the top 10. Olave should post a career season with Michael Thomas off the roster, and Aiyuk should build on his impressive 2023 season. He’s also entering a contract year. This tier includes four players who could push for WR1 value. London is a popular breakout candidate with Kirk Cousins now under center in Atlanta. Evans was the WR7 a season ago, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Pittman Jr. should remain the Colts' No. 1 wideout, and his numbers were solid in games started by Anthony Richardson last season.
Tier 4 – High WR2s
DK Metcalf, Seahawks Nico Collins, Texans Deebo Samuel Sr., 49ers DJ Moore, Bears
The Seahawks passing game should benefit from hiring Ryan Grubb as their new offensive coordinator, which is good news for Metcalf. This tier also includes Collins ahead of Stefon Diggs, as he has a rapport with C.J. Stroud. Samuel Sr., coming off a WR15 finish, should be a fine No. 2 wideout. As for Moore, he will struggle to duplicate his high-end numbers from last season after the Bears traded for Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze. He’ll drop from a mid-level No. 1 wideout to a No. 2 option.
Diggs can no longer be considered an elite fantasy option, as he'll compete with Collins and Tank Dell for targets. Still, he should finish in the WR2 range in what should be an explosive pass attack. Waddle and Smith are both in high-octane offenses and will be attractive WR2s in fantasy leagues. Nabers should be a target hero as a rookie in New York if his quarterbacks can get him the football. There's high-end WR2 potential in him.
Tier 6 – Low WR2s
Cooper Kupp, Rams Amari Cooper, Browns Terry McLaurin, Commanders Christian Kirk, Jaguars
Kupp has missed parts of the last two seasons due to injuries and is now entering his age-31 season, so he’s fallen to the WR2/WR3 range as a result. Cooper averaged a solid 15.3 PPR points in his 15 games last season, and he should remain the top option in the Browns pass attack even with the addition of Jerry Jeudy during the offseason. McLaurin should emerge as the first option in the passing game for rookie Jayden Daniels. Kirk will be the first receiving option with Calvin Ridley no longer in the Jaguars offense.
There is real upside in this tier as Flowers, McConkey and Higgins could push for WR2 value. Flowers should build on a good rookie season, and McConkey has a shot to lead all Chargers wideouts in targets. He’ll be a popular sleeper option in drafts. Higgins had a subpar 2023 but will be motivated to rebound in a contract year. Pickens and Reed could both break out as the projected top receivers for their respective teams. Allen, whose stock fell after being traded to the Bears, is now a flex option. The same holds true for Dell, who looked terrific as a rookie but will lose opportunities to Diggs.
Ridley, who finished 18th among wideouts last season, is now in an offense with an unproven quarterback in Will Levis and will have to compete with DeAndre Hopkins. Johnson will be the top target for Bryce Young in Carolina, so I can see him averaging 12-13 points per game. Brown could be a bargain for managers if he opens the season as the top wideout in Kansas City. I have his new teammate, Rice in his tier, but I have no idea what sort of suspension he’ll face for his off-field problems. Sutton, who remains the clear top wideout in Denver, and the veteran Godwin should both be on the low WR3 radar.
There’s plenty of upside in Tier 10, but some questions too. Addison would be ranked higher if it weren’t for the quarterback questions in Minnesota, and Hopkins will contend with Ridley for targets in Tennessee. I like Smith-Njigba as a potential sleeper/breakout in his second season, but Lockett remains a big part of Seattle's offense. Williams, who will see a bigger role in Detroit this season, should post career numbers. He has sleeper/breakout appeal.
Tier 10 – High WR4s
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars Keon Coleman, Bills Xavier Worthy, Chiefs Rome Odunze, Bears Christian Watson, Packers
We can call this the rookie tier, as it includes Thomas Jr., Coleman, Worthy and Odunze. All four have a chance to play prominent roles for their respective teams. Odunze, who will have to compete with Moore and Allen for targets in Chicago, might have the lowest ceiling of the quartet. Watson is hard to trust because of last season's injury woes, but he could also be a bargain.
Tier 11 – Mid WR4s
Adam Thielen, Panthers Mike Williams, Jets Jakobi Meyers, Raiders Curtis Samuel, Bills Brandin Cooks, Cowboys
Thielen and Williams will be no better than the second-best options in the passing games of their respective teams. Meyers might have hit his ceiling last season when he finished as the WR24, but he's still worth a late look. Samuel has some sleeper appeal in Buffalo, and Cooks will be a matchup-based option in what figures to be a highly productive Cowboys passing game.
Tier 12 – Low WR4s
Gabe Davis, Jaguars Jerry Jeudy, Browns Josh Downs, Colts DeMario Douglas, Patriots Josh Palmer, Chargers
There are a lot of recognizable names, but none of them come with target guarantees. Davis will have to compete with Thomas Jr. for a starting job in Jacksonville, and Jeudy will be the second or third option in the Browns passing game. Downs and Douglas have some deep sleeper appeal.
