Caleb Williams won’t play his first NFL snap until September but his first season of professional football effectively already started. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft attended rookie minicamp last month and is currently in Chicago for mandatory minicamp with the rest of his Bears teammates. It seems he’s already making a strong impression.
Bears tight end Cole Kmet spoke to reporters on Tuesday about Williams’s insane competitive nature and shared a story to illustrate that trait. Kmet explained they had gone to Top Golf for an outing after practice and stayed there until 1 a.m. because Williams “had to finish the game.” Kmet was quick to note he beat his quarterback.
#Bears TE Cole Kmet says the one thing he’s learned about Caleb Williams is how competitive he is. They were at Topgolf recently, and even though the place was about to close, Caleb insisted on finishing the game.
The selling point of Top Golf is that it is fun and casual. Not to Williams, apparently. He wanted to win the Angry Birds target game so badly he stayed several hours past closing.
These are the sort of anecdotes that fans will hear plenty of this time of year. It’s a staple of hype season— nobody hesitates to share these kinds of stories because they want to say nice things about their rookie teammates. Sometimes it’s a sign of things to come, but more often than not such stories are forgotten once players step foot on the field.
Bears fans will find out for themselves soon enough if this particular tale is actually reflective of Williams’s competitive nature.
Now that the dust has settled from the NFL draft, it's time to examine some early futures markets and see where we can find value. Passing props have been released for several rookie signal-callers, giving us some insight into how Las Vegas values NFL freshmen.
Today, we kick off a new series, "Bet This, Not That." Use these articles as a guide for being creative and finding value when placing your wagers.
Regarding futures bets, weighing the payout vs. the time you'll tie up your bankroll is wise. Generally, I don't bet on season-long totals because that value is hard to find. But sometimes, there is a way to find value, or at least to get "hints" where you can find values in other markets. You can even use these markets as a good cheat sheet for how high to draft a player in your fantasy football drafts.
Let's look at the early futures markets for Bears QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. All odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams at the NFL draft.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Passing Yards: Over 3500.5 (-110) | Under 3500.5 (-110)
Passing TDs: Over 23.5 (-105) | Under 23.5 (-120)
First, let's start with some recent and historical trends:
Only 13 rookie quarterbacks have passed for more than 3,500 yards since 1970. Nine of those quarterbacks debuted in the last 10 seasons.
In 2023, rookie C.J. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards, ranking third behind Justin Herbert (4,336) and Andrew Luck (4,374). All three passers won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Justin Herbert's 31 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2020 remains the most of all time.
Only five rookie passers since 1970 have tossed 24+ touchdowns in their debut season, one of which was Daniel Jones.
Based on these historical facts, Las Vegas is high on Williams according to the opening market for his season-long stats.
The Bears have created a dream situation for the rookie signal-caller. Williams has two elite veteran wideouts in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, not to mention a solid pass-catching tight end in Cole Kmet and a pass-catching running back in D'Andre Swift. The Bears also added All-American wideout Rome Odunze out of Washington with their ninth pick in the NFL draft.
The Bears' defense is improving, the O-line should provide ample pass protection, and new OC Shane Waldron has a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. The Heisman winner out of USC has everything going in his favor.
However, it's also worth noting no Chicago Bears rookie has ever come close to these numbers. In fact, only two Bears quarterbacks have surpassed 3,500 passing yards: Jay Cutler (2009, 2014, 2015) and Erik Kramer (1995). No Bears QB has passed for more than 3,900 yards in the franchise's history.
So, will Caleb Williams set new standards in Chicago? With everything aligning, the Bears are certainly betting on it.
But I'm not.
I'm fading the futures market for Williams, though I will draft him as a QB2 in my fantasy leagues.
If you're high on Williams but want to bet for better value, consider his OROY future, which pays +200 instead. That makes him the favorite for the award, and though it may not be the best overall value for the OROY award, it's a better value than betting the over on his season-long player totals, and it has a chance to cash even if he falls short of his totals. After all, the odds for the Bears to make the playoffs are (-125). I'd rather tie up my bankroll for a chance at the plus-money payout.
Bet This: Williams OROY (+200)
Not That: Williams over 23.5 passing touchdowns (-105)
With the 2024 NFL draft in the books, it’s time to look at which rookies from the first round will deliver dynamic seasons.
Last year, the Houston Texans got it right by selecting quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. at No. 2 and No. 3. Stroud and Anderson won Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, respectively. The year before that, the Jets had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year with receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner.
As for a pattern between the Texans and Jets, they both had two top-10 picks. That was the case for the Chicago Bears last week, but both of their picks were on the offensive side. Will a player from Chicago win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Let’s examine which first-round picks will make an immediate impact.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Williams has the daunting task of ending the Bears’ lengthy drought of not having a legitimate franchise quarterback throw for 4,000 yards in a season. He has the skill set, arm strength and athleticism to quickly become a star, especially with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze as his top three receivers. If the offensive line protects Williams, the Bears’ offense could quickly become a top-10 unit in 2024.
Although Williams has the luxury of throwing to a receiving corps that could end up being one of the best in the league, he’ll need to remind himself to lean on his weapons and not play hero ball, an area that often got him in trouble at the college level due to his strength of creating plays amid chaos. If he keeps it simple his rookie year, he might be the runaway front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Odunze, the No. 9 pick, could also make an immediate impact, but it might be tough for him to get targets playing behind Allen and Moore.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Harrison was dominant at Ohio State and will hope to continue that run alongside Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA
With how dominant Harrison was at Ohio State, adding him to this list was a no-brainer. It would not be surprising to see him make the Pro Bowl with similar numbers to what Rams receiver Puka Nacua did last season (105 catches, 1,486 yards and six TDs). Harrison will make the Cardinals better, but he’ll also benefit from having Kyler Murray as his quarterback and Drew Petzing as the offensive play-caller. The Cardinals had a terrible roster a year ago, but managed to defeat the Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Harrison could also have decent matchups based on how well wide receiver Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride played last season. Expect the Cardinals to take steps forward this season with Harrison leading the charge.
Joe Alt, OT, Los Angeles Chargers
Many Chargers fans weren’t pleased about the first pick in the Jim Harbaugh era being an offensive tackle instead of a wide receiver. Yes, Los Angeles needed wide receivers, which it later addressed in the draft with Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice, but protecting Justin Herbert was more important.
The Chargers got it right by adding the massive 6'9," 321-pound Joe Alt, pairing him with Rashawn Slater and giving Herbert outstanding bookend tackles for years to come. If Alt is forced to play right tackle—Slater has been the Chargers’ left tackle since 2021—he might struggle for a few weeks, but he will likely get the hang of it in his rookie season. If he wins the left tackle job, Alt has the makings of being an All-Pro, something Slater accomplished in his ’21 rookie season.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Bowers could give the Raiders a reliable rookie pass-catcher right away.
Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK
Some were shocked to see the Raiders draft the best available player at No. 13 instead of addressing needs at cornerback or the offensive line. With the top five quarterbacks off the board, new Raiders GM Tom Telesco made the right decision by taking Brock Bowers, who might have been a top-10 pick had he played wide receiver instead of tight end.
Many were too caught up in the position Bowers plays and overlooked his gifts as a versatile pass catcher. He’ll likely gain many yards up the seam for veteran quarterback Gardner Minshew. Look for Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to use Bowers all over the field.
Taliese Fuaga, OT, New Orleans Saints
Fuaga is the ideal body guard for Derek Carr due to his toughness in the trenches and high-level run blocking skills. He’ll likely be a plug-and-play starter at right tackle and could end up having a similar rookie season to Penei Sewell and Tristan Wirfs from a few years back.
The Saints aren’t receiving enough credit for this pick because they have issues at left tackle and Fuaga primarily played at right tackle at Oregon State. But he does provide versatility as a player who can play on the inside, and maybe his polished skills and strength could one day make him a quality left tackle. But for now, the Saints shouldn’t overthink it and play Fuaga at his best position.
Jared Verse, Edge, Los Angeles Rams
Verse is a versatile edge rusher that could help bring the Rams defense into the post-Aaron Donald era.
Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY
Not many viewed Verse as the top edge rusher in the draft, but he was often sandwiched between Laiatu Latu and Dallas Turner as the No. 2 player at the position. Some rated Latu No. 1 because of his upside, but he also has injury concerns. Others ranked Turner No. 1 because of his polished skills, but pointed out his lack of size and strength.
As for Verse, he might provide the most versatility with his blend of speed and power. And after what the Rams did with their rookies last season, Verse could be in an ideal situation to become an immediate impact player. He’ll play next to last year’s rookie sensations, Byron Young and Kobie Turner, on the Rams’ revamped defensive front, which also includes Verse’s Florida State teammate, Braden Fiske. The Rams could soon have a dominant defensive front in the post-Aaron Donald era.
Terrion Arnold, CB, Detroit Lions
Arnold could end up being the steal of the draft after falling to No. 24. He will likely win a starting job as an outside corner because of his athleticism and exceptional skills in man-to-man coverage. He also will have plenty of help playing alongside veteran Carlton Davis III and slot cornerback Brian Branch, the Lions’ impressive rookie from last season.
Arnold lacks size at 6'0," 196 pounds, but his polished skills in coverage and nose for the ball will likely allow him to make an immediate impact. Don’t be surprised if he quickly gains the respect and trust of his teammates with how impressive he was in team and media interviews during the lead-up to the draft.
Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams' greatness has been evident since his high school days, as his athleticism and arm strength was unprecedented for those who coached him.
Williams was the consensus top quarterback recruit in the country out of Gonzaga College High School in Washington D.C. and the velocity that he put on his throws at a young age foreshadowed what he has become. Just ask his high school offensive coordinator, Danny Schaechter.
During preseason camp in 2018, Schaechter caught a pass from Williams and looked down at his left hand, which was throbbing in pain and covered in blood. He realized that a pass from Williams had broken his wedding ring and cut his finger open.
"I'm like, 'What in the heck did I do?' And then I realized, 'Oh crap, my wedding ring is split in half,'" Schaechter told ESPN. Schaechter now wears his wedding ring on a chain around his neck when he is doing anything football-related, thanks to Caleb Williams.
"Because of Caleb, I take my wedding ring off anytime I'm going to do some football stuff," he said. "I don't want anybody to break my wedding ring, but he was the only one who actually did it."
Williams's arm strength was one of several key traits that helped him get taken with the No. 1 pick in last week's NFL draft.
That arm strength was on display in 2018, and is even more prominent now in 2024.
