Fantasy managers will never forget the impressive rookie season from Tank Dell, whose campaign was cut short by a broken leg in December. After watching highlight reel and highlight reel of CJ Stroud connecting with the third-round pick out of Houston, it was heartbreaking to see Dell carted off the field during the December 9th game vs. the Broncos as the Texans were making a surprising playoff push.
Luckily for Texans fans, Houston still grabbed that playoff berth.
Before exiting with the injury, Dell had bested WR Nico Collins in multiple essential metrics. Dell led the team with a 22.5% target share vs. Collins’ 22.1%, and he had a significant advantage in air yards share: 35.9% vs. 25.3%. On a fantasy points-per-game basis, Dell averaged 18.7 points per game compared to Collins’ 18.1.
Dell was one of the season’s most successful waiver wire pickups until that injury occurred.
Dell was nearly fully recovered from his leg injury when he sustained another freak leg injury last month – this time from a bullet wound at a bar shooting in Florida. Luckily, in Dell’s own words, this was a “wrong place at the wrong time” injury that was not severe.
However, the good news is that Dell was a full participant in all OTAs for the Texans just three weeks after his gunshot wound, and all reports are that he returned at high speed.
Fantasy managers should feel safe betting on the health and talent of Tank Dell despite the crowded receiver room in Houston. The Texans offense is sure to be high-powered with Dell, Collins, and the newly acquired veteran Stefon Diggs, not to mention tight end Dalton Schultz, who just signed a fresh three-year contract. However, Dell was drafted by the Texans at Stroud’s request, and their chemistry is undeniable.
Dell’s 107 targeted air yards per game was more than CeeDee Lamb in 2023, and his 70.9 receiving yards per game was more than Chris Olave and Amari Cooper. He was also a touchdown machine, averaging .7 scores per game, trailing only Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. Dell is coming off the board as the WR37 well after Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. I’m taking Dell at that value every day of the week.
Success in fantasy drafts is all about projecting which players are on the verge of a big season, and knowing who might take a step back in the numbers. It’s those players, who have been labeled as “busts” in the past, who can be the most detrimental to a fantasy manager’s chances at winning a title.
That might not be truer at a position than wide receiver.
The reason is simple: wideouts have emerged as the single most important position in all fantasy football. That means missing out on a high-end receiver can be tough to overcome. Case in point … fantasy managers who whiffed on Cooper Kupp last season probably had some major issues at the position, unless they picked up his teammate, Puka Nacua.
Most folks probably weren’t so fortunate, however.
With that in mind, here are eight receivers who will be high draft picks or are big names who could struggle to produce as prominent starters.
1. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
I had Adams listed as a player to beware last season, and he went on to post decreased totals in almost every statistical category. He still finished in the top 10 in points among wideouts, but he was wildly inconsistent. Adams scored fewer than 13 points in nine games, including five with single digits.
The Raiders don’t have an attractive quarterback situation with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew and the team drafted tight end Brock Bowers in the first round. That could affect Adams’ target share, at least to some degree. So, for those thinking Adams could return to elite fantasy status or that he’ll be more consistent, you might want to think again.
2. Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Diggs is coming off a disappointing second half of last season, which resulted in him averaging just 16.1 points per game. That was his lowest total with the Bills. Now in Houston, he joins a super-talented core of receivers that includes Nico Collins, who broke out last season, and Tank Dell, who was on his way to busting out before getting hurt. The team also boasts Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz and a new running back in Joe Mixon. Diggs will be hard-pressed to see anywhere near the target share he enjoyed in Buffalo. Unless injuries occur on the roster, Diggs can’t be trusted to retain his previously elite status.
3. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
I know, listing Kupp as a bust candidate after he was a bust last season is low-hanging fruit. And, honestly, part of me wants to put Nacua in the article. After all, we could be (and likely are) drafting him based on a magical, ceiling season in the stat sheets. But the truth is, Kupp has only played in 13 games in the last two years due to injuries, and he’s entering his age-31 season. That makes him a hard fade as a No. 1 wideout, and he’s even a risk as a No. 2.
4. Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Ridley was a top-20 fantasy wideout last year, but he was anything but reliable. He scored fewer than 12 points 10 times including nine where he scored single digits. Now in Tennessee, the veteran will be catching passes from a young quarterback in Will Levis and contending for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd. The Titans also have two good backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, so Ridley could be hard-pressed to see high target totals consistently. To me, he’s only a No. 3 wideout.
5. Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Allen was putting up monster numbers last year, but injuries cost him what might have been a career-best campaign. However, an offseason trade to the Bears makes him a lot less attractive from a fantasy standpoint. Their offense is led by a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and it’s loaded with talent that includes DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, making it unlikely that Allen will see 150-plus targets. If you do draft him, it should be as a No. 3 receiver.
6. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett is coming off a down season that saw his reception, yardage, and touchdown totals decrease compared to 2022. What’s more, his 11.9 point-per-game average was his lowest since 2017. Entering his age-31 season (he’ll turn 32 in September), I see Lockett falling behind teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the pecking order. That idea is playing out in drafts, as JSN is going ahead of Lockett based on average draft position. With the statistical arrow pointing downward, he shouldn’t be picked as more than a No. 4 option in drafts.
7. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson was considered a breakout player last year, but he went on to miss eight games due to injuries and was held to fewer than 12 points in all but two of the nine games he was active. His absence opened the door for teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to emerge into viable options for Jordan Love and fantasy managers. I’m not opposed to taking him in the later rounds as a No. 4 wideout, but I’m otherwise out on Watson.
8. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Thielen was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football in the first half of last season, averaging 20.2 points in his first seven games. The wheels fell off after that, however, as he dropped to 8.9 points in his final 10 contests. Aside from that, Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, so Thielen will struggle to see such a high target share again. Entering his age-34 season, he isn’t worth more than a late-round selection.
The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.
This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.
The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.
That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.
In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.
In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.
Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”
2013 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4 Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7 Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16
2018 Los Angeles Rams Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1 Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4 Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8 Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4 Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6
2020 Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4
There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.
So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.
Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).
Six Seasons: Steelers
Five Seasons: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings
No Seasons: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens
Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.
What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!
The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.
Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.
Most fantasy football drafts are a couple of months out, but the arrival of the summer means it's time to start preparing. And step one in that preparation is getting your rankings down.
Quarterback has been a tricky position in fantasy football over the years. It's used to be highly valued until the "late-round quarterback" approach took hold. An influx in rushing production and overall elite play over the last few years has caused yet another shift. So let's take a deeper look at the quarterback rankings, as well as who some of the top values and busts are for 2024.
Rank
Player
Team
Bye Week
40
Mac Jones
JAX
12
39
Kenny Pickett
PHI
5
38
Micahel Penix Jr.
ATL
12
37
Jake Browning
CIN
15
36
Sam Howell
SEA
10
35
Zach Wilson
DEN
14
34
Gardner Minshew
LV
10
33
Justin Fields
PIT
9
32
Aidan O'Connell
LV
10
31
Bo Nix
DEN
14
30
J.J. McCarthy
MIN
6
29
Daniel Jones
NYG
11
28
Geno Smith
SEA
10
27
Drake Maye
NE
14
26
Bryce Young
CAR
11
25
Will Levis
TEN
5
24
Russell Wilson
PIT
9
23
Derek Carr
NO
12
22
Deshaun Watson
CLE
10
21
Baker Mayfield
TB
11
20
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ
12
19
Matthew Stafford
LAR
6
18
Caleb Williams
CHI
7
17
Justin Herbert
LAC
5
16
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
6
15
Trevor Lawrence
JAX
12
14
Jared Goff
DET
5
13
Kirk Cousins
ATL
12
12
Jayden Daniels
WAS
14
11
Brock Purdy
SF
9
10
Kyler Murray
ARI
11
9
Jordan Love
GB
10
8
Dak Prescott
DAL
7
7
Joe Burrow
CIN
12
6
Anthony Richardson
IND
14
5
C.J. Stroud
HOU
14
4
Lamar Jackson
BAL
14
3
Patrick Mahomes
KC
6
2
Josh Allen
BUF
12
1
Jalen Hurts
PHI
5
Now that we've seen the rankings, let's look at who the biggest quarterback values you should draft are based on who is ranked significantly ahead of their average draft position (ADP) from FantasyPros.
Jayden Daniels (Ranked QB12, ADP QB17)
The biggest value on the list is rookie Jayden Daniels. As the QB17 by ADP, he's not even being selected as a high-end backup. In reality, he's ranked as a low-end starting option (for 12-team leagues), and his upside is much higher than that. Fantasy value for young quarterbacks typically comes from rushing production, and that's something Daniels offers in spades. There's a chance he turns into a bust, of course, but when you're drafting him in a spot where league mates are taking guys like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers, that's not a risk that would come back to burn you anyway.
Kirk Cousins (Ranked QB13, ADP QB18)
Kirk Cousins' ADP makes him the perfect complement for a riskier quarterback like Daniels. Assuming everything ends up clear on the injury front, Cousins should be a pretty safe high-floor kind of player. He's not going to suddenly blossom into a top-end QB1 the way Daniels could, but he could save you when injuries or bye weeks hit. Ignoring quarterbacks early and pairing Daniels and Cousins in the later rounds is a great approach to capitalize on this value.
Jalen Hurts (Ranked QB1, ADP QB2)
A one-spot difference is not as significant as the gaps we see for Dainels and Cousins, but one spot is significant when it's the top spot at the position. If your draft approach is to try landing the year's best quarterback, you can afford to wait a little longer than you might typically. Allen is going as the first quarterback off the board, and if you're in a more casual league you could even see Hurts falling to the QB3 or QB4 spot because of the name value Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson carry.
On the other side of the coin, these are quarterbacks you should not be drafting. They're ranked significantly behind their ADP as of our last update.
Tua Tagovailoa (Ranked QB16, ADP QB13)
The 2023 NFL passing yards leader, Tua Tagovailoa is missing a couple of key factors for being a top-end fantasy option in 2024. First, he doesn't offer any rushing upside (74 yards and 0 touchdowns in 2023). Second, his huge passing upside last year skewed heavily toward the start of the season, not offering much consistency or value when the fantasy playoffs rolled around. For his final eight games of the fantasy football season (weeks 9 through 17), he ranked just 26th at the position in per-game fantasy scoring, averaging just 14.3 per game.
Caleb Williams (Ranked QB18, ADP QB14)
On the other side of the rookie coin, first-overall pick Caleb Williams offers none of the exciting value Jaylen Daniels does. Williams is in a great spot for real-world success as a rookie, for sure, but he's not the rusher that Daniels is, and the Bears offense also doesn't figure to be nearly as pass-heavy as the Commanders'.
Jared Goff (Ranked QB14, ADP QB12)
Jared Goff isn't a horrible pick, being taken two spots ahead of where we have him ranked, but when you're looking at the difference between QB12 (a low-end starter) and QB14 (a high-end backup), that does matter. Goff was the QB15 in fantasy scoring on a per-game basis last season, and not much has happened with the Lions' roster this offseason to signal he's due for a jump. His high-floor production is very replaceable with players going later in the draft, and if you're taking one of the first 12 quarterbacks off the board in your league, you want it to be one with way more upside.