Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is one of several players across the league this offseason who is in active contract extension talks as mandatory minicamp begins.
When speaking with reporters on Tuesday in Miami Gardens, Tagovailoa was asked about the state of extension talks, and whether or not Jared Goff’s $53 million-per-year contract earlier this offseason set a benchmark in his negotiations with the team.
“I’ll tell you one thing. The market is the market,” Tagovailoa said. “If we didn’t have a market, none of that would matter. It would just be an organizational thing. It didn’t matter if that guy got paid that, because it’s up to the organization. That’s what I would say. The market is the market. That’s it”
It’s clear Tagovailoa is seeking a contract to be paid like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL after playing in all 17 games in 2023 and posting career numbers.
Tagovailoa completed 69.3% of his passes for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns, which were all career-highs. He is slated to become an unrestricted free agent following this season if an extension is not reached with the Dolphins as anticipated. Until further notice, he’s playing out 2024 on a $23.1 million base summary as part of a club option that was exercised by the Dolphins on his rookie contract.
Odell Beckham Jr. is signing with the Miami Dolphins according to Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network. There must have been a group text or something because according to very similarly worded tweets, Beckham is signing a 1-year deal worth up to $8.25 million and he took less than he was offered elsewhere to sign with the Dolphins.
Beckham appeared in 14 regular season games for the Baltimore Ravens in 2023 and caught 35 passes and scored three touchdowns. Beckham hasn't been a Pro Bowler since his early days with the New York Giants, but he did manage to average a career-high 16.1 yards per catch last season. That was the eighth-highest average in the NFL and a full yard higher than new teammate Tyreek Hill.
Beckham's solid year in Baltimore was especially impressive since he was coming off a torn ACL he suffered in the Super Bowl when he was with the Los Angeles Rams. That was his second torn ACL since 2020.
At this point in his career, no one expects him to be a superstar again, but as a third option behind Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Mike McDaniel's passing attack he should be a great fit. Last year the Dolphins led the NFL in passing yards and total yards before their offense stalled out in the freezing cold in Kansas City in the wild card round.
Tua Tagovailoa is capable, but he's also imperfect. Unfortunately for the Miami Dolphins, having such a quarterback in the NFL is the ultimate franchise-altering dilemma when it’s time to decide on a new contract.
Speaking to league sources, opinions on what Tagovailoa’s future with the Miami Dolphins should be are scattershot.
“The best way to look at it is, you prepare for the speed at skill positions and Mike McDaniel, and then Tua,” a longtime NFL defensive coordinator says. “… He doesn’t like to get hit or read coverage. When is he at his best? RPOs and the quick game. Next question to ask yourself is how many quarterbacks would you take before him?”
Despite playing behind an average offensive line, Tagovailoa was protected by McDaniel’s scheme. He only faced pressure on 15.7% of dropbacks, the third-lowest figure of 2023 for qualifying quarterbacks. This is due to his 2.1 seconds in the pocket per dropback, the quickest release time in the sport.
Regardless of the split opinions on the quarterback, the formula worked.
Last year, Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yardage (4,624). He also threw 29 touchdowns against 14 interceptions, leading the Dolphins to their second straight playoff appearance. In 2022, the Alabama product paced the league in yards per attempt (9.2), yards per completion (13.7) and passer rating (105.5), albeit while missing four games due to concussions.
“[The Dolphins] should pay him [between the] fifth- and 10th-ranked quarterbacks,” a veteran front office executive says. “He has some talent and fits the system, but there’s no real upside and the medical is scary. He will only be as good as the players around him.”
Based on current deals, putting Tagovailoa somewhere between the fifth- and 10th-highest paid quarterbacks means a total value of $180–258 million. That’s a range which includes Josh Allen (fifth), Jalen Hurts (sixth), Kyler Murray (seventh), Deshaun Watson (eighth), Jared Goff (ninth) and Kirk Cousins (10th).
Most importantly, the guaranteed money would land between $130–179 million.
Speaking to an NFC general manager, he stated that if he were overseeing the Tagovailoa negotiations, he’d aim to pay him in the same ballpark as Goff.
Earlier this offseason, Goff signed a four-year, $212 million extension with the Detroit Lions, including $170.6 million guaranteed. The total value ranks ninth, with the guaranteed money being sixth.
However, there’s another path Miami could take as well.
“I would definitely stretch it out,” a former NFL general manager says. “I couldn’t pay him the $50 million [per year] at this stage with the information we have. Play this year out, then tag him next year if you have to. Just because he played one full season, that doesn’t alleviate everybody’s doubts about durability. Plus, I felt like at the end of last year his talents grew a wart or two.”
Should Dolphins general manager Chris Grier go this route, Miami is looking at a $23.1 million cap hit for Tagovailoa in 2024, before a tag which will be approximately $40 million in ‘25. The Dolphins would then have the option of another tag (a 20% raise over the first tag’s value), which would mean retaining the ability to either sign Tagovailoa long-term, or trade him away.
At 26 years old, there’s still the question of whether the Dolphins and Tagovailoa are good enough together to make meaningful noise.
In 2023, Miami went 1–6 against playoff teams. In those games, Tagovailoa threw eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions, never once surpassing 300 yards.
“He’s a good player but will never be elite,” another defensive coordinator who has faced Tagovailoa says. “… Try to make him read things. He just throws it to spots a lot of the time. Keep changing the windows on him and he will struggle.”
Clearly, though, he’s good enough to win plenty of games based on the existing roster around him.
Jun 5, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Tagovailoa looks on during mandatory minicamp at Baptist Health Training Complex. Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Without a crush of injuries last season, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins might have won the AFC East and hosted a playoff game or two. Instead, Miami faltered late, losing to the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills before being blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild-card round in a game played in sub-zero temperatures.
The big question is whether Tagovailoa is a driver of Miami’s high-octane offense or a product of it. Digging into the numbers, the 2020 first-round choice ranked 15th in intended air yards per pass attempt (7.7) last season, while benefiting from the second-most yards after catch (2,177), trailing only Patrick Mahomes. Tagovailoa also checked in 27th in scrambles (15), meaning when the play breaks down, it’s largely over.
To one of the sources' aforementioned comments, where does Tagovailoa rank?
While that’s not the ultimate question Grier must ask himself, it’s among them. For the Dolphins, getting to the Super Bowl and finally winning one for the first time since 1973 is the ultimate goal.
In the AFC, it’s impossible to make a good-faith argument that Tagovailoa is in the top-third of the conference’s quarterbacks.
Any general manager would pick Mahomes, Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud before him. Then there’s Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, who all have strong cases to be placed ahead of Tagovailoa. Do that, and Miami’s signal-caller is suddenly in the bottom half of the conference.
As training camp looms, the Dolphins have to make a decision.
Pay Tagovailoa, get long-term cost certainty and continue building around him with top-tier weaponry and a defense designed to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
Or, let Tagovailoa play out his fifth-year option, hold the franchise tag as a strong option and see if the long-term move becomes obvious after these next 17 (and potentially more) games.
For Grier and the Dolphins, it’s a franchise-defining decision.
The NFL offseason continues on, but that doesn't have to stop us from keeping an eye on the NFL futures market!
The top of the Super Bowl oddsboard is dictated by the two teams that made it to the big game last season with the San Francisco 49ers slightly favored over the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are once again viewed as a true contender to win the Super Bowl for a third straight year with the team set to return a majority of its core, but it's the 49ers who have the edge at the top of the oddsboard.
It's worth noting that the Niners are in the far easier conference relative to the AFC, and that's indicated in the odds. After the two aforementioned teams, the AFC has seven of the 12 other teams that have shorter than 25-1 odds.
Moreso, three of the next four teams are in the AFC with the Ravens, Bengals and Bills all viewed as legitimate threats to win the Super Bowl this season.
With training camp still a few months away, it's worth keeping an eye on more movement in the Super Bowl odds ahead of the 2024 season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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