Welcome to the NFL offseason, where receivers get paid lots of money (just ask Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins), the NFL continues to push for an 18-game season, the league and NFLPA discuss ways to ruin the offseason calendar and teams continue to go through their OTAs and mandatory minicamps.
So we asked our MMQB staff to answer a series of eight questions over the next two weeks. They’ll debate the best and worst moves, the most and least improved teams, the best coaching move and more.
So let’s get to the answers to today’s question as we get closer to the NFL taking a break before July training camps open.
Matt Verderame: The Dallas Cowboys NOT extending Dak Prescott.
Prescott and the Cowboys were pummeled by the Packers in the playoffs. / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Prescott is a good player. But despite talented rosters, he has won exactly two playoff games in eight seasons and never reached an NFC championship game.
Furthermore, Prescott turns 31 years old this summer. He’s not likely to get better, and even staying at the same level could be a challenge throughout the duration of what would certainly be an extension-topping contract of $55 million annually. The team around him is also eroding, even if it has major stars in Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb.
Throwing for 36 touchdowns and 4,516 yards was great last season, but rings hollow after you’re blown out by the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers in your own building, partially because of two interceptions.
While losing Prescott after this season would represent a reset, so be it. The goal is trying to win a Super Bowl. Although it’s not only his failure, Prescott hasn’t made a serious run yet at such an achievement. Dallas should be ultra-aggressive and find his replacement in the next 24 months, whether in free agency or the draft, and hope that quarterback has a higher ceiling.
Gilberto Manzano: The San Francisco 49ers NOT trading Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk.
Aiyuk and Samuel are still with the 49ers despite the team exploring trade offers for both. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The 49ers fielded trade offers for star wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel because they’re well aware of not being able to pay everyone on their loaded roster, especially with quarterback Brock Purdy possibly cashing in next offseason.
But they were smart to have high asking prices for two players who have been instrumental in the team’s success the past few years. The 49ers didn’t cave to lesser offers during draft season and minimized the damage for shopping the two wideouts. Samuel attended the team’s OTA workouts, a good sign that the 49ers probably kept him in the loop with their business matters. And Aiyuk wasn’t going to show up without an extension.
So no harm in exploring options. Either quickly reload with valuable draft picks or run it back with the same cast of star players. The 49ers’ core group will get another opportunity to end the organization’s 30-year Super Bowl drought. Oh, and they added more firepower with the first-round selection of wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who could fill in if Aiyuk is traded during the summer, which doesn’t appear likely, or next year if he leaves in free agency. The good teams create options.
Conor Orr: The Detroit Lions SIGNING D.J. Reader.
Reader could have been among the best free agents this offseason. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
This is the kind of signing (two years, $22 million) no one is really going to talk about until mid-November when the Lions have one of the best run defenses in the NFL and Reader is mauling inferior offensive linemen en route to another artful tackle behind the line of scrimmage. I really think he was among the best free agents this offseason in terms of a player who you know is going to fit into any scheme and perform incredibly well. He’s a Dan Campbell-type of player.
Albert Breer: The New York Giants TRADING for Carolina Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns.
The Giants landed Burns from the Panthers for second- and fifth-round picks. / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Going back to the middle of the 2022 season—when Carolina turned down first-round picks in ’24 and ’25, and a ’23 third-rounder for Burns at the trade deadline from the Los Angeles Rams—things were sideways for Burns in Charlotte. How could they not be? Negotiations were basically nonexistent from that point forward, the team was terrible, and Burns had to wait for his pot of gold. Because of all of that, the Giants landed him for a fraction (a second-rounder and a fifth-round pick swap) of what the Rams offered, and got him signed to a reasonable market contract (five years, $141 million) to play opposite Kayvon Thibodeaux. And they still had the second-rounder they got for Leonard Williams at last year’s deadline, along with a motivated 26-year-old edge rusher under contract for the next five years.
The 2024 NFL draft is done, and it’s time to dive in and answer a few questions about it …
From David Kromelow (@dkrom59): What are realistic expectations for Caleb Williams (individually speaking) and the Bears in general this season? And do you anticipate Bo Nix starting over or under 10 games for the Broncos this year?
Alright, Davis, so on the first question, I’d say 3,700 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions would be a reasonable stat line for Williams in Year 1. I do think the team has a chance to be good and, just as important, positioned to help fuel the quarterback’s development.
With a deep crew of backs (D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert) and a rugged offensive line, the Chicago Bears should have the ability to keep Williams out of the long-yardage situations that kill young quarterbacks. And with a fast-improving team, and a defense coming around at the end of last year, he shouldn’t be playing from behind quite as much as quarterbacks drafted that high usually do. Having Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze won’t hurt, either.
So, yeah, I think that team can win nine or 10 games just with solid play from Williams.
As for Nix, I do think Sean Payton’s going to get him out there. One thing I know Payton loved about Nix was his experience. Between Auburn and Oregon, Nix started an NCAA record 61 games. Generally, quarterbacks who played a lot in college (see: Purdy, Brock) translate faster to the NFL. Which should make it a little easier on Payton to play Nix, and get him NFL game reps now rather than later.
The Bills drafted Coleman in the second round after trading back with the Chiefs.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
From d_iggs17 (@d_iggs17): Was Keon Coleman the Bills’ guy all along or did they have another receiver in mind?
Diggs, let’s look at this logically. The Buffalo Bills did the trade with the rival Kansas City Chiefs, moving down from 28 to 32, knowing what the rest of the NFL did last week—that Texas burner Xavier Worthy was a great fit for Kansas City. So if the Bills loved Worthy, they wouldn't have done that. With full acknowledgement that the San Francisco 49ers are really good, and often outside the box on receiver assessments, it’s fair to say few teams had Florida’s Ricky Pearsall going 31st. And they dealt with ex-Bills exec Dan Morgan in trading down from 32 to 33.
Put the pieces together, and it’s easy to think that the Bills had an inkling that Worthy and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette were going in the spots they traded out of, and were surprised to see Pearsall go where he did. And maybe they moved out of 28 when the hope that LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. would slip to them died.
So let’s say, in a great receiver year, they had Coleman as their fifth guy, behind Thomas, his LSU teammate Malik Nabers, Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. and Washington’s Rome Odunze. I’d say to get that guy—some scouts assessed him as a prospect in the Harrison–Nabers–Odunze class in the fall—in the second round is pretty good value, especially when it resulted in improving three later picks in pick swaps as part of trades.
From Chandler (@_chandler_____): What do the Chiefs do with their excess cap space?
Chandler, their cap space is a moving target because of the restructures of Patrick Mahomes’s contract. They pushed more than $21 million into the future, and that eventually has to be accounted for.
To simplify it, let’s say you have $200 to spend on your team today, and $220 to spend on it tomorrow. So on one player, you push $20 off to tomorrow. Now, on paper, it may look great that you have that extra $20 today. But you’ll still have to account for it tomorrow. So if you have the choice, with your team built, to take $20 off the top today to add to what you can spend tomorrow, would you do it? You probably would.
So that’s my convoluted way of saying the Chiefs probably take the money and roll it over. One thing that’s interesting, too, is that with Travis Kelce’s new deal—which essentially added $4 million this year, guaranteed his money, and added an early vesting date for next year’s guarantees—there are no void years. I’d look for the Chiefs to do more deals that way, to make it so Mahomes’s deal is the only one pushing money forward, which will allow them to build in a more sustainable way.
Most NFL scouts had Rattler projected as a fourth-round pick.
Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
From Tyler (@BigTyTheMemeGuy): How big of a shot does Spencer Rattler have at becoming the Saints’ starting QB after Derek Carr?
Tyler, I’m just going to use the space you gave me to say something else on Rattler here: The only reason anything involving Rattler (like my buddy Ian Rapoport’s Netflix note during the final day of the draft) is a big deal is because three springs ago people were projecting him to be something he wasn’t.
In the Netflix documentary, “QB1: Beyond the Lights,” Rattler was a senior at Pinnacle High School, and the conversations showed him criticizing his teammates, which did not make him look great and impacted his draft stock.
You know all those way-too-early mock drafts? Absent an obvious top-end prospect coming into the 2022 class, a lot of folks projected Rattler, then Oklahoma’s starter, to go in the top five. Some had him first, based largely on Rattler’s recruiting ranking, some promise after his first year with the Sooners, and Lincoln Riley’s previous three starters at OU all going in the top 50 picks, with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray drafted first in consecutive drafts.
So what Rapoport reported during the draft had followed Rattler through his benching for Caleb Williams at OU and over to South Carolina, where he played in 2022 and ’23.
The truth is most NFL people would have told you before the draft he was going in the fourth round or so, and he went a round later. He also was picked 23 slots behind where the Saints took Jake Haener last year. So to answer your question, it’s not likely he’ll replace Carr.
It's not likely that Lock beats out Jones for the starting job with the Giants.
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
From Bobby Spence (@postcrabcore): Drew Lock competing for QB1?
Bobby, if you mean getting first-team reps with Daniel Jones in New York Giants training camp, then I think the answer is no. But the Seahawks really liked the progress they saw from Lock over the two years he spent there, enough to where maybe you could close your eyes and envision his story playing out like the guy that beat him out, Geno Smith, in Seattle.
And because Jones is coming off an ACL tear, and won’t be back on the practice field, there’s an opening here. While you can only show so much in the spring, the fact that the New York Giants didn’t draft a quarterback will afford Lock starter reps through all the noncontact practices in May and June. If he makes an impression, and Jones stumbles in training camp, could things turn at some point in August?
I wouldn’t bet on that happening, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Samuel could be the odd man out in San Francisco.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
From Joe Douglas SZN (@F---AdamGase): Do you think Deebo or Aiyuk gets traded? If yes, which teams could be in play?
Joe, a couple of months ago, I thought Brandon Aiyuk could be the odd man out in the San Francisco 49ers’ bottleneck of big contracts. My logic matched the logic the 49ers used in dealing All-Pro DeForest Buckner four years ago—when they chose a guy who had massive value to other teams, and played a position where the team had a surplus of talent.
I’ve now changed my thinking. If there’s a guy that could get moved, it’s probably Deebo Samuel, with San Francisco looking to get an extension for Aiyuk done, the team’s best pure receiver. Samuel, a great player, may be seen as more of a luxury to have at this point, especially with another do-everything type in Christian McCaffrey (who may look for a pay bump of his own this summer).
Samuel’s also under contract, and has a lot of mileage on his legs, which is the reality of playing him the way the 49ers do, as a receiver and as a running back.
As for fits for Samuel, I think you’d look at some of the usual suspects in that coaching tree. San Francisco won’t trade him to the Los Angeles Rams, and I can’t imagine they’d send him to the Green Bay Packers, either. The Atlanta Falcons, with OC Zac Robinson, might make some sense. The New York Jets could, too, as a piece for the receiver group, and for some depth behind Breece Hall at tailback. And a reunion with Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins could be fun.
Speaking of that …
The Dolphins added more speed to their offense with Wright, a fourth-round pick.
Matt Stone/Louisville Courier Journal /
From Tua Messivailoa (@TuasRevenge): Are the Miami Dolphins assembling the fastest team of all time?
Tua, yes, they appear to be doing just that. And I’m assuming you’re referencing fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright, a tailback out of Tennessee who averaged 7.4 yards per carry over three years in Knoxville, then blazed a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at the combine.
The disconnect, of course, is that he only averaged 11 carries per game, and the home-run hitter element he brought to the Tennessee backfield was mixed with inconsistency as an inside runner and as a receiver. Last year’s rookie dynamo in Miami, De’Von Achane, by comparison, and who’s more than 20 pounds lighter, averaged nearly 20 carries per game in his final season at Texas A&M.
So it’ll be interesting seeing how McDaniel and the coaches add Wright to the mix with a huddle that’s already stocked with legitimate speed in Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. My guess would be McDaniel will find a way to get some big plays from him, and make an already headache-inducing offense even more of a nightmare for defenses.
Williams could be a top pass-rushing prospect in the 2025 NFL draft.
Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY
From Glen Phelps (@PhelpsGlen62041): Very preliminary, but what appear to be the strengths of the 2025 draft?
Glen, just scanning some lists, but it sure looks like there are a lot of high-end pass-rushing prospects in the group—Georgia’s Mykel Williams, LSU’s Harold Perkins, Ohio State’s J.T. Tuimoloau along with transfers such as Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton and Ole Miss’ Princely Umanmielen. So it sure looks like there’s a good group that could be part of the early draft conversation.
The other thing I see is another good year at offensive tackle with LSU’s Will Campbell and Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. in that mix.
From Strickly Speakin’ (@SpiderStrick): Do you foresee any more tweaking to the Commanders’ front office now that we’ve reached the time of year those things tend to happen?
Probably not a lot, Speakin’. Just looking at the landscape, the decision to retain Martin Mayhew was a big one for GM Adam Peters, given Mayhew’s experience in two different places as a GM, and the experience the two had together in San Francisco (and the fact that he was willing to take a step back from the GM role and stay in Washington says a lot about Mahew). Also, Peters already brought Lance Newmark over from Detroit to be his assistant GM.
So I think anything that happens on the scouting side would qualify as tweaking. What’s more likely is the Commanders adding to the staff for analytics chief Eugene Shen.
From Don Ridenour & CEO of Klutch Sports Rich Paul (@DonRidenour): Besides Marvin Harrison Jr, what team got the best value for a player from Ohio State?
Stover was a reliable target for C.J. Stroud in 2022.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
With a nod to Tommy “Two Hands” Eichenberg going to the Las Vegas Raiders, give me Cade Stover to the Houston Texans. The third-rounder is still just learning to be a tight end, and was a reliable target for C.J. Stroud in 2022. He’s tough as nails, a bull in the open field, and reliable.
I’d bet on him developing, and becoming a more polished route runner, working with a really good offensive staff and his old quarterback.
It's a cycle that repeats itself and has many ripple effects, the most prevalent of which is that players at these positions just keep making more and more money. Each new superstar deal sets the stage for the next.
It is obviously well-deserved for Jefferson. It is also a boon for other wide receivers around his level who are negotiating their own big-time contracts. Here are four receivers in particular who will benefit from Jefferson's record-setting deal in their respective negotiations.
Lamb is the name you'll probably see the most floating around in the wake of the Jefferson deal. The Cowboys star earned first-team All-Pro honors in 2023, posting a league-leading 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. Pound-for-pound, he may not be as talented as Jefferson but he is definitely in a similar tier of game-changing receiver— and he should get paid like it, too.
In addition to their other similarities, Lamb was part of Jefferson's draft class, meaning he is entering the final year of his rookie contract and should receive an extension this offseason from the franchise that drafted him. That extension will now be much pricier with Jefferson's deal in place. Jerry Jones has been insisting all offseason that the Cowboys are "all in" for 2024, but the lack of extensions for Lamb and quarterback Dak Prescott have been a big talking point.
Regardless of when the deal gets done (and who it gets done with), Lamb will be negotiating from a position of strength after Jefferson reset the market and it would not be a surprise to see him end up the highest-paid receiver in the league.
Chase is one of the few wideouts who can lay legitimate claim to Jefferson's throne as best receiver in the NFL. He's a legitimate game-breaker who can and will dominate defenses on the right day. In 2023, Chase posted an even 100 catches for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing two games to injury and catching passes from multiple different quarterbacks amid Joe Burrow's own injury-plagued campaign.
With an All-Pro nomination to his name already in his young career, Chase is often tabbed as the next receiver to sign a truly ludicrous deal. Lamb is likely next in line to reset the market but Chase is going to demand even bigger money given his immediate and overwhelming dominance from Day 1.
The interesting aspect of Chase's situation, however, is that he still has two seasons left on his rookie deal. This gives the Bengals more leverage than other teams on this list because they have a full extra offseason to get him under contract before he enters the final year of his deal. Cincinnati is incentivized to get it done as soon as possible, because as laid out above, the price tag will just keep going up. Jefferson's deal isn't too bad a starting point for either side.
Chase is set to get paid, either this offseason or the next.
Aiyuk has been in trade rumors all offseason so who knows where he'll end up by the time the season kicks off in September. Wherever that may be, he will almost certainly sign a new deal in the coming months; he is entering the final year of his rookie contract and will want a raise from someone. The Jefferson contract will give him a big boost.
Unlike the above two players, Aiyuk is not quite in that superstar tier level of player that will break multiple records upon putting pen to paper. He had 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns in 2023, and playing in Kyle Shanahan's incredibly productive offense probably hurts more than helps him.
Even acknowleding that, Aiyuk will have the advantage of the Jefferson contract that St. Brown did not. He should be in line for a larger payday than he was before.
Higgins was franchise-tagged by the Bengals this offseason after playing out the final year of his deal. A lot of what happens with Higgins will depend on what happens with Chase, but negotiations between Higgins and the Bengals are essentially non-existent at this juncture, according to the latest reports, and he's yet to sign the tag. So it's really anybody's guess right now as to how long Higgins is meant for Cincinnati and if he'll sign a new deal there or elsewhere.
However, when Higgins does get to the negotiating table, the Jefferson deal will be very helpful. Like Aiyuk, Higgins is not a superstar, but he's very good and can reasonably assert he'll post even better numbers as the No. 1 option instead of across from a talent like Chase. As is, Higgins recorded 42 catches for 656 yards and five touchdowns last season-- all career-lows, stemming from injury problems that forced him to miss six games and the same quarterback issues that Chase had to deal with.
He is in line for a nice raise one way or the other, and the Jefferson contract will help as a reference point in negotiations.
