The Miami Heat were bounced from the NBA playoffs in five games by the Boston Celtics, but star Jimmy Butler believes things would have been different if he was healthy.
Butler suffered a sprained MCL during the play-in tournament against the Philadelphia 76ers. He missed all five games against the Celtics.
“If I was playing, Boston would be at home,” Butler recently said in an interview with Rock the Bells. “New York would d— sure be f–king at home.”
The Celtics cruised to the Eastern Conference’s best record (64–18) this season, but Butler’s confidence likely is coming from the rivals’ recent playoff history. The Heat got the better of Boston in both the 2020 and ’23 conference finals.
Butler was named the 2023 Eastern Conference finals MVP after tallying 24.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game against the Celtics.
Butler ended his quick interview with Rock the Bells by addressing New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau, who he played for with the Chicago Bulls from 2011 to ’15 and again with the Minnesota Timberwolves from 2017 to ’19.
Thibodeau and the Knicks are set to face the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference semifinals after defeating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games.
“I love Thibs, but I don’t want him to win,” Butler said. “Thibs, I love you baby, but I want to beat you to a pulp. It’s like a one-sided relationship. You’re in love with me. I love you, but I’m not in love with you.”
Butler, 34, will be paid over $48 million by the Heat next season. He has a $52.4 million player option on his contract for the 2025-26 campaign.
There are several key trends to know ahead of Game 1, starting with Boston's record as a home favorite. The C's are 26-21-2 against the spread as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of 14.4 points per game.
Boston also has the best against the spread record in the first half of games this season (63-32-1).
Dallas Mavericks on the Road
The Mavericks are an NBA-best 34-16 against the spread on the road, but we can break that down even further.
As a road underdog, Dallas is 14-11 against the spread, which isn't as great, but it thrived as a road favorite, going 20-5 ATS. Unfortunately, the Mavs are road dogs in Game 1.
Game 1 Favorites Dominate Since 2005
Since 2005 Game 1 favorites are an insane 16-3 against the spread, and going back the past 30 years, they are 21-9 against the spread.
Boston is favored by 6.5 points in Game 1, and it has covered in two of the three opening games of its playoff series.
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The Boston Celtics secured a 1–0 lead in the 2024 NBA Finals after taking care of business on their home court against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night in Game 1, 107–89.
The Celtics jumped out to a huge first-half lead, pulling ahead by as many as 29 points during the second quarter before heading into halftime up by 21. Although the Mavericks clawed back to within eight points in the third quarter, Boston was able to re-extend its advantage and shut the door on the series opener.
Kristaps Porzingis was sensational in his return to the lineup, making his first appearance for the Celtics since April 29, when he sustained a calf injury against the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs. The 28-year-old scored 20 points off the bench, providing a major offensive boost for the team.
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum combined for 38 points, coming up with big plays on both ends of the floor as they helped guide their team to a Game 1 win. Tatum recorded a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds, while Brown came away with three steals and three blocks, alongside a team-high 22 points.
As for the Mavs, Luka Doncic's first taste of the NBA Finals was not what he'd been hoping for. The 25-year-old played well, but it wasn't enough to keep Dallas close. He scored a game-high 30 points while adding 10 rebounds and just one assist. Backcourt mate Kyrie Irving struggled in the loss, shooting 6 for 19 in a 12-point outing.
Dallas faltered as a whole from beyond the arc, making just 7 of 27 attempts from three-point range. Boston was vastly better, shooting 16 for 42 from deep, a difference which showed up on the scoreboard. The Mavericks' 89 points were their fewest this postseason.
Dallas will look to bounce back in Game 2, which is set for Sunday at 8 p.m. ET from TD Garden.
At long last, the NBA Finals are just a day away, and I’m ready to lock in three plays for Game 1 – all of which end up being on the Boston side.
Earlier this week, I made my official prediction for this series (Boston Celtics in 6), and like many NBA fans, I’m ready for this series between Boston and the Dallas Mavericks to start.
This season, I’ve bet on the NBA every day that there have been games, and while we’re not positive on the year at the moment, a Celtics preseason future could get us there – depending upon how these Finals go.
We’re starting strong in Game 1 with three plays – two props and one side – with Boston entering the game as a 6.5-point favorite.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jaylen Brown has been terrific in the playoffs, averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range.
Brown has been much more efficient than Jayson Tatum, and he finds himself with a points prop that is four points lower than his co-star in Game 1.
I love the OVER here for Brown, who has cleared 22.5 points in nine of his 14 playoff games, including all four of his matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals.
While the return of Kristaps Porzingis could eat into Brown’s usage, I don’t expect KP to return to his normal role in his first game back from a calf injury. Brown has played a ton of minutes, clearing 40 in three of his last five games, and he’s taken at least 17 shots in 11 of 14 games this postseason.
JB has some serious value at this number ahead of Game 1.
Jrue Holiday OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-122) – 0.5 unit
Jrue Holiday may not win an ECF MVP or Finals MVP, but he has been a massive difference maker in his first season in Boston.
Holiday’s defensive prowess makes him a staple in Joe Mazzulla’s rotation, and dating back to the second round he’s really stuffed the stat sheet overall.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game over his last seven games, clearing 22.5 PRA in six of those contests.
I imagine Holiday will draw the assignment on either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, and he should play heavy minutes in Game 1. Betting on Boston props is a little volatile since we don’t know Porzingis’ usage, but this number has dropped significantly for Holiday compared to the 25.5 and 26.5’s that we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The only NBA champion on the Boston roster should continue his strong play in Game 1.
Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks – 0.5 unit
I think that bodes well for a Boston team that covered in two of its three Game 1s so far this postseason and was 37-4 straight up at home in the regular season. The C’s also posted a 26-21-2 against the spread record as home favorites this season, winning those games by an average margin of victory of 14.4 points.
I have a lot of respect for the run Dallas made, but Jason Kidd’s team has struggled in Game 1s since he took over, going 1-5 straight up and losing four of those five games by seven or more points.
Boston – the best team in the NBA all season long – has been disrespected in my eyes entering this series. It went 12-2 on its run to the Finals and easily posted the best net rating of any team in the playoffs.
I’ll lay the points with the C’s in Game 1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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