Fantasy baseball managers who lost Jazz Chisholm are no doubt in need of a replacement at second base, one of the thinner positions for fantasy this season. Middle infielder Mauricio Dubon will lose every day playing time starting Friday night with Jose Altuve’s return, too. I have listed my two preferred options in today’s article in some depth, but also check for Paul DeJong, Kyle Farmer and Zach Neto.
In addition, there are two other hitters listed that should not remain on the waiver wire, whether you can start them or not. Remember, waiver wire isn’t just about offense – defense counts, too. What do I mean by that? Quite simply: Don’t let someone else in your league get Jake Burger.
More on that below and a starting pitcher who is worth consideration.
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Orlando Arcia, 2B/SS (ATL)
Despite missing time for a fractured wrist early in the season, Arcia is hitting .342 with four homers at 12 RBIs across 22 games played this year. His quality of contact has improved, and he has an everyday spot in a Braves lineup that has scored the fifth-most runs per game this season. Arcia qualifies at both second base and shortstop.
Luis Garcia, 2B (WSH)
Washington’s second baseman is going to help your batting average, with a strikeout rate in the sixth percentile of the league and an xBA of .284. He has some power, too, with three home runs and 17 RBIs this season. He also has a pair of stolen bases. Warning: Be sure you bid on the correct Luis Garcia. There are also two pitchers in the league with the same name.
Jake Burger, 3B (CHW)
It blows my mind that Jake Burger is still available in 95% of ESPN leagues. I usually don’t put someone in the waiver wire article more than once, but in this case I have to. Get Jake Burger. Listen to this: His max exit velocity is in the top 1% of the league (118.2). The only player that has a higher max exit velocity this season is Matt Chapman (118.9). But that’s not all. It’s not just that he hit a ball hard once; Burger has 10 home runs this season, and six of them have come across the last 10 games. He’s also hitting .277 and with Eloy Jiminez on the IL will have an everyday playing spot for the foreseeable future. Is it just a hot streak? Who cares?
Lane Thomas, OF (WSH)
A second Washington National makes the list today. The speedy outfielder has four stolen bases and he’s hitting .280 with five home runs this season. All five of those home runs have come during the month of May, in which he has been hitting .309. Thomas is especially dominant vs. lefties with a .362 batting average, .562 slugging, and three home runs.
Dane Dunning, SP (TEX)
Dunning has moved into the starting rotation for the Rangers who lead the AL West, and all three of his starts have been strong. In his most recent start, he held the Braves to only one run through six innings. With a strikeout rate in the bottom 12% of the league (he doesn’t get many whiffs) and a max exit velocity in the bottom 3%, it seems like he must be due for regression. However, so far so good. Dunning has an ERA of 1.69 this season and statcast says his xERA is 3.89. Even with regression, that’s a pitcher worth having on your roster.
The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.
This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.
The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.
That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.
In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.
In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.
Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”
2013 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4 Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7 Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16
2018 Los Angeles Rams Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1 Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4 Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8 Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4 Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6
2020 Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4
There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.
So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.
Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).
Six Seasons: Steelers
Five Seasons: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings
No Seasons: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens
Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.
What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!
The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.
Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.
