The Dallas Mavericks are sizable underdogs in the 2024 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics, but there are a lot of public bettors that believe Dallas will take this series.
If you also believe that’s the case, betting on a Mavs player to win Finals MVP is a great way to cash in on some favorable odds since Celtics All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite in this market.
Luka Doncic is No. 2 on the list – clearly the top Mavs player entering this series – but there are two dark horses that I think are worth considering if you want to place a small wager on them to win NBA Finals MVP.
There is Doncic, and then there is a massive gap between the rest of the Mavs in this market – and for good reason.
The 2023-24 regular season MVP finalist leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made, recording six triple-doubles in 17 games.
Doncic has a massive usage rate, and he looked to bet getting over his knee and ankle injuries – at least when it comes to his scoring – in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 32 or more points in each of Dallas’ four wins.
Jrue Holiday will be a tough and likely matchup for Doncic, but let’s not forget that Luka nearly averaged a triple double in the regular season while putting up 33.9 points per game. Dallas will need him to be otherworldly to win this series, and if he is, he’s going to win Finals MVP.
Kyrie Irving (+2000)
Has there been a bigger revenge series in recent memory than this one for Kyrie Irving?
A former Celtic, Irving has a chance to bury his former team in the Finals, and he is the clear-cut No. 2 option to win Finals MVP on the Mavericks. In fact, no player has shorter than +29000 odds on Dallas after Doncic and Irving.
Kyrie’s scoring would likely be his calling card to propel him in this market, but asking him to outplay Doncic is a tough task, and if he does, doesn’t that put Dallas in a tough spot to win the series?
The Mavs need both of their stars to be great in this series, and if that’s the case, the betting odds suggest Doncic is the clear favorite here. Kyrie could be worth a sprinkle, but his path to a Finals MVP is a little murky outside of him scoring at an all-time rate.
Dereck Lively II (+50000)
The longest of longshots, rookie Dereck Lively II is second on the Mavericks in plus/minus this postseason, and he’s made a massive impact on the defensive end of the floor.
Could Lively’s defense and rebounding be enough to win this award?
It’s highly unlikely, but he’s the one Mavs role player I’d consider given his positive impact on a game-to-game basis for the Mavs. Plus, if Lively wins the matchup with Kristaps Porzingis (Daniel Gafford will start for Dallas but Lively will probably close) late in games, it could be crucial to Dallas pulling off an upset.
Don’t break the bank betting on him, but for the sake of this exercise, he’d be my No. 3 choice.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Game 3 of the NBA Finals is crucial for the Dallas Mavericks, as a loss would all be seal their fate against the Boston Celtics in this series.
Trailing 2-0, Dallas is looking to avoid the dreaded 3-0 series deficit -- something no team has ever come back from in a seven-game series in the history of the league.
On the bright side for Dallas, oddsmakers have favored Luka Doncic and company at home in Game 3.
The spread in Game 3 has moved since Kristaps Porzingis was diagnosed with a torn medial retinaculum allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon on Tuesday.
Porzingis is officially questionable for Game 3, and oddsmakers have moved Dallas from -2 to -2.5 in this game since the Porzingis injury was announced.
Boston has fared well without Porzingis this postseason, but he clearly makes the Celtics a better team, especially after dropping 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the field in Game 1.
Can Dallas pick up a win at home to keep its chances to win the Finals alive?
Boston Celtics on the Road
Boston has dominated on the road in the playoffs, going 6-0 straight up against the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers. Can it stay perfect against the Mavericks?
The C's are 22-22-3 against the spread on the road in the 2023-24 season overall, so their playoff performance has been even better.
Boston Celtics as Underdogs
This is just the fourth time this season that the Celtics are underdogs, and it's the first time in five months that they have been in this spot.
Boston is 1-2 against the spread as an underdog in the 2023-24 season. All of those games have come on the road.
Dallas Mavericks at Home
So far this season, Dallas is 25-24 against the spread at home, but that number is slightly better as a home favorite.
The Mavs are 19-17 against the spread as home favorites, although they have lost games at home in every series so far this postseason.
Teams Down 0-2 in Game 3
Dallas is down 0-2 in this series, but there is an interesting trend dating back to 2005 for these teams entering Game 3.
NBA teams down 0-2 at home since 2005:
• 91-47-1 first half ATS • 66-70-3 full game ATS
The first half trend has been even lately though, going just 13-14-1 1H ATS since 2020-21 (3-4 this year) pic.twitter.com/ecnq7LaJoo
However, the Celtics are the best team in the NBA against the spread in the first half this season, so bettors may want to be careful about having to lay points with Dallas, who is a slight favorite, in Game 3.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The Boston Celtics are up 3–0 on the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Finals, and could win a championship on Friday night in Game 4.
Forward Jayson Tatum is ready to add a championship to his resume, but not just for himself. He wants to win the title for all of his teammates, too. So, he isn't really focused on the additional accolades winning the finals can bring, like being named the NBA Finals MVP.
"Finals MVP or whatever, a champion is a champion. That's the goal," Tatum told Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes. "I want for my teammates what I want for myself. I want everybody to shine. There's enough attention for all of us. And so, I want everybody to give us theirs."
Tatum added that because the Celtics recently lost in the NBA Finals, back in 2022 to the Golden State Warriors, he wants to win this title to prove the doubters wrong. Critics will emphasize that while Tatum has earned some of the top achievements in the NBA, he still doesn't have a championship.
"Because I've been here before, and I know what it felt like to lose [in the Finals] and that was the worst feeling ever," Tatum said. "That was the worst summer I ever had. I made the All-Star team five times. I'm All-NBA first team year after year. The only thing they said I haven't done is win. ... I just vowed to myself that if I ever got back to the Finals, then I would literally do whatever I needed to do to ensure that we have a different outcome."
If the Celtics win the franchise's 18th title on Friday, the organization will lead NBA history for the most titles as the Los Angeles Lakers have 17. The Celtics last won in 2008.
