There are plenty of ways to bet on the 2024 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, but wagering on the NBA Finals MVP may be one of the most exciting.
Oddsmakers have set the NBA Finals market since the start of the playoffs, and one constant has been All-Star Jayson Tatum leading the way. Tatum, who is now -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook, is the best player on the best team in the NBA, and with Boston favored to win this series pretty heavily, he’s the odds-on favorite to take home NBA Finals MVP.
Both Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are in the top five of the odds to win the Finals MVP, but I’m focusing strictly on Boston players to bet in this market in this article, as you prepare your card for the Finals.
In terms of value, Jaylen Brown at +650 is the best bet on the board.
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, getting the nod over Tatum, who was heavily favored, and it’s certainly possible that this could happen again.
Based on implied probability, Brown has just a 13.33 percent chance to win Finals MVP while Tatum is all the way up at 53.49 percent.
However, their numbers aren’t all that different this postseason.
PPG
RPG
APG
FG%
3P%
Jayson Tatum
26.0
10.4
5.9
44.2
29.0
Jaylen Brown
25.0
6.1
2.6
54.1
36.8
Tatum has definitely done more outside of scoring the ball, but he’s also shooting significantly worse than Brown, who has shot 50 percent or better from the field in 11 of his 14 games this postseason.
Does a big scoring series by Brown — with Tatum struggling from 3 this postseason — shift the odds in his favor? Given how quickly Boston has worked through its other opponents, I wouldn’t be shocked if one or two big games swing this market toward Brown.
Jayson Tatum (-115)
Tatum is an obvious choice to win this award, although you’re not getting a massive return on your investment if he does win.
Even though his shot isn’t falling the way he’d like, Tatum has stepped up on the glass – which was huge with Porzingis out for the majority of the playoffs – and as a passer.
Tatum doesn’t get a ton of credit for his passing ability, but he’s averaged over 5.0 assists per game in each of his last three playoff runs, reaching the NBA Finals twice in that stretch.
If Tatum and Brown play similarly, the market is suggesting that Tatum has the edge, and he’d likely be the choice to win this award. Given his usage, especially as a passer, Tatum has a path to this award as long as he matches Brown’s scoring output.
Jrue Holiday (+5000)
My dark horse pick for the NBA Finals MVP award on Boston is point guard Jrue Holiday, who was terrific against Indiana and has been on a heater over his last few playoff games.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game since Game 3 against Cleveland in the second round. He’s shooting an impressive 59.2 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from 3 in that stretch (seven games) while also taking on the toughest defensive assignment on a nightly basis.
That’s where Holiday has an interesting edge, as he could win this award if he shuts down Luka Doncic. We’ve seen it in the past (Andre Iguodala in 2015 and Kawhi Leonard in 2014) where the player tasked with guarding LeBron James earned the Finals MVP award.
It’s not a foolproof path for Holiday, but there’s certainly a chance he wins this, especially if Tatum and Brown don’t put together massive offensive numbers in the series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Neither team shot the ball particularly well in Game 2 of the 2024 NBA Finals, but it was the Boston Celtics who emerged victorious over the Dallas Mavericks, securing a 2–0 lead in the series following Sunday's 105–98 win.
Jrue Holiday led the charge offensively for the Celtics, proving particularly effective from in around the rim as he scored a team-high 26 points on 11 for 14 shooting. Jaylen Brown played prolific two-way ball once again, providing lockdown defense while also contributing his share on offense with 21 points.
Jayson Tatum's shooting woes continued, but as has often been the case during the postseason, Boston's depth was able to help overcome that. Tatum shot 6 for 22 from the field, but was an excellent facilitator as he racked up 12 assists and added nine rebounds.
Dallas didn't go down quietly though. The Mavs cut a 14-point deficit into just five with around one minute left, but an emphatic Derrick White block put a stopper on the comeback hopes and capped off the win for Boston.
Kristaps Porzingis, who made his return to the starting lineup on Sunday, exited during the fourth quarter after suffering an apparent leg injury. He remained in the game briefly before checking out for Al Horford and did not return. His status will be something to monitor going forward.
For the Mavericks, it often felt that if Luka Doncic wasn't scoring, the team's offense simply wasn't functioning. Doncic provided 32 of Dallas's 98 points, shooting 12 for 21 from the field despite not being at full strength. Although he registered a triple-double in just the second NBA Finals game of his career, he also had eight turnovers in the loss, struggling to take care of the ball against the stalwart Boston defense.
Apart from Doncic, the rest of the team shot 26 for 59 (44%), including a woeful 2 for 17 (11.7%) showing from three-point range. Kyrie Irving had another lackluster performance with 16 points and six assists, marking his second consecutive game without making a single three.
The series will shift to Dallas for Games 3 and 4, and the Mavericks will need to get the job done on Wednesday if they want to avoid the perilous 3–0 deficit, which no team has ever overcome in NBA history.
Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum. Kyrie Irving vs. Boston. Kristaps Porzingis vs. Dallas.
The stage is set for the 2024 NBA Finals, and we could be in for quite the series, especially since both of these teams have gotten a ton of rest since the Eastern and Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 – on June 6 – is still a few days away, but the betting markets for the NBA Finals are alive and well. Not only are there odds for the series winner, exact games and NBA Finals MVP, but bettors can also wager on series-long player props ahead of Game 1 as well.
Using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, I’m taking a deep dive into this series where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win their first title in the Jayson Tatum era – something that has been building all season long in the futures market.
Dallas, who is the No. 5 seed in the West, won three consecutive playoff series as a road team and underdog, but can it win one more? Doncic and Irving certainly are as well-equipped as a duo could be to lead their team to the promised land.
As someone who is holding a preseason future on Boston, there are several ways to play this series. But, before getting into my pick, let’s discuss the series odds, correct score and Finals MVP markets and how they may shake out.
Based on implied probability, Boston has a 67.74 percent chance to win this series, while Dallas clocks in at 36.36 percent.
It makes sense since Boston has home-court advantage in this matchup, but the Mavericks have played some great basketball as of late. Not only did they post the best defensive rating in the NBA over their last 15 games of the regular season, but they closed the season on a 16-4 run to earn the No. 5 seed.
Since the trade deadline, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, it has been a totally different team.
However, there is one thing that I’ve been tracking for years that is working against Dallas in this series. Since the 1996-97 season, every team that has won the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating during the regular season.
Dallas did not in the 2023-24 campaign.
Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished inside the top 8 in net rating during the regular season.
Is this the year that this trend breaks? It could be given how drastically the Mavs’ roster changed at the trade deadline. Dallas had a net rating of +1.3 before the All-Star break (around the trade deadline) and it ended up posting a +3.7 net rating in 27 games out of the All-Star break – which was good for 12th in the NBA.
I try not to read into these trends too much, but this one has extended over 25 years, so it’s going to take a special team to break it.
As for Boston, this has been the expectation for the team all season long. The C’s have been Finals favorites for most of the campaign, and they rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
While Boston has been maligned for having an easier path to the Finals due to injuries to its opponents, the Celtics beat whoever was in front of them, going 12-2 on their run. It’s hard to be much better than that.
Since Boston is heavily favored to win this series, it has the three most likely outcomes in the correct score odds at DraftKings.
Given Boston’s dominance on the road (6-0 this postseason), it isn’t crazy to think that this series could be over in five or six games, even though Dallas has yet to face a Game 7 all postseason.
The Mavericks’ most likely outcome is to take the series in six games, with a four or five game win sitting as a massive long shot. Dallas has an implied probability of just 7.69 percent to win in five games and five percent to win in four games.
Jayson Tatum is the odds on favorite to win NBA Finals MVP with Boston favored in this series, but can we count out Jaylen Brown?
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, yet he’s +650 to win Finals MVP. Tatum has played much better as of late, but he started the postseason off in a bit of a shooting slump, and will likely draw one of Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. for the entirety of the series against Dallas.
Luka Doncic (+205) is also interesting since he leads the playoffs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers made.
Obviously, Dallas would have to overcome being a massive underdog for Doncic to win this award, but at +205 he presents some more value than simply taking the Mavs to win the series. It’s tough to see any other Dallas player winning this award based on the odds, unless Kyrie Irving has a massive series scoring the ball.
Doncic has been a triple-double machine in these playoffs, so we know he’s going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis, which would help him when it comes to the Finals MVP voting.
Even though oddsmakers don’t seem to think this matchup will be super close, I actually believe we’re in for a terrific series given how Dallas matches up defensively with the Celtics.
Washington, Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II are all versatile defenders that could match up with Tatum, Brown and Porzingis respectively on defense. On the Boston side of things, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are about as good of a duo as you can have to deal with the offensive expertise of Doncic and Irving.
Dallas and Boston have both thrived in clutch minutes so far this postseason, and each team has All-Star closers that can take over a game. If Porzingis is back – and it seems like he is trending in that direction – both teams will also be as healthy as they’ve been all playoffs now that Maxi Kleber is back from a shoulder injury for Dallas.
So where does Boston’s advantage truly lie?
While the Celtics faced three banged-up teams to up the playoffs, they dominated a good chunk of their games, only losing on masterful Game 2 shooting performances by Miami (23-for-43 from 3 in Game 2) and Cleveland (13-for-28 from 3 in Game 2). In both of those games, Boston failed to make double-digit 3-pointers, but it has been one of the best shooting teams all season.
Doncic and Irving present a challenge the C’s haven’t faced yet, but to say Boston isn’t battle tested is flat out wrong.
The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and turned three games in the Eastern Conference Finals where their opponent – the Indiana Pacers – had a 90 percent win probability or higher, into wins. Regardless of who is on the floor, that’s impressive resilience from a team that has played in big games a lot in the Tatum-Brown era.
Dallas’ role players are going to have to knock down shots in this series – and they have for most of the playoffs – but Boston has more offensive firepower when Porzingis is in the lineup. A lot of people are forgetting they rolled through the last two rounds without KP’s 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds on the floor.
Moving Al Horford to a smaller role should combat the problems Boston had defending the pick-and-roll this postseason, and Porzingis (if healthy) gives Boston elite rim protection against lob threats like Gafford and Lively.
Dallas’ offense doesn’t have the ability to spread the floor like Boston’s does, and while I believe Doncic is the best player in this series, Boston has shown all season long that it is the best team.
I don’t think Dallas gets run out of the building like Boston did to the East, but given the Celtics’ ability to win on the road in this postseason – and past postseasons – with this core, I think they clean this up in six games.
Pick: Celtics in 6 (+475)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Could Dallas Mavericks coach Jason Kidd be engaging in a little gamesmanship ahead of Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday?
Kidd minced no words during Saturday afternoon's press conference when he called Celtics star Jaylen Brown, not Jayson Tatum, Boston's best player.
Naturally, NBA fans and media alike were wondering if Kidd was trying to influence how Tatum and Brown come out and play in Game 2.
It's not the first time the Celtics' co-stars have been dealing with media narratives such as this, and they're clearly not interested in taking the bait.
"I don't have no reaction," Brown said. "It's a team game, we're trying to focus on that. Everybody has their own opinions."
Jaylen Brown on Jason Kidd calling him the best player on the #Celtics
“I don’t have no reaction… it’s a team game… everyone has their own opinions.” pic.twitter.com/yNRUmwWhaT
When asked if he thought Kidd was trying to drive a wedge between himself and Tatum, Brown complimented his teammate, while reiterating that the team is locked in on the task at hand.
"I'm not sure. I don't know," Brown said of Kidd's perceived tactics. "We've been just extremely focused on what our roles and our jobs are. We've all had to sacrifice. Jayson's had to do that at the highest of levels, right? And I respect him and tip [my] cap for it. But right now, at this point, it's whatever it takes to win and we can't let any outside interpretations get in between that."
Jaylen Brown was asked if he thinks Jason Kidd is trying to divide the team with his comments.
Brown went on to say he has the utmost respect for Jayson Tatum’s sacrifice this season:
Tatum wasn't surprised that another media narrative was surfacing trying to divide the two best players on the team.
"No reaction," Tatum said when asked about the comments. "This is a team sport, right? We understand that. We wouldn't be here if we didn't have JB on our team. And we can say that for a lot of guys, right? We've all played a part in getting to where we're at, we understand that."
"You know, people try to drive a wedge in between us. I guess it's a smart thing to do or try to do. But we've been in this position for many of years of guys trying to divide us and say one of us should be traded or one's better than the other. It's not our first time at the rodeo."
"We understand people try to drive a wedge between us ... This is not our first time at the rodeo."
-Jayson Tatum on Jason Kidd saying Jaylen Brown is Boston’s best player 👀
