There are plenty of ways to bet on the 2024 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, but wagering on the NBA Finals MVP may be one of the most exciting.
Oddsmakers have set the NBA Finals market since the start of the playoffs, and one constant has been All-Star Jayson Tatum leading the way. Tatum, who is now -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook, is the best player on the best team in the NBA, and with Boston favored to win this series pretty heavily, he’s the odds-on favorite to take home NBA Finals MVP.
Both Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are in the top five of the odds to win the Finals MVP, but I’m focusing strictly on Boston players to bet in this market in this article, as you prepare your card for the Finals.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jaylen Brown (+650)
In terms of value, Jaylen Brown at +650 is the best bet on the board.
Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, getting the nod over Tatum, who was heavily favored, and it’s certainly possible that this could happen again.
Based on implied probability, Brown has just a 13.33 percent chance to win Finals MVP while Tatum is all the way up at 53.49 percent.
However, their numbers aren’t all that different this postseason.
|
PPG |
RPG |
APG |
FG% |
3P% |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jayson Tatum |
26.0 |
10.4 |
5.9 |
44.2 |
29.0 |
|
Jaylen Brown |
25.0 |
6.1 |
2.6 |
54.1 |
36.8 |
Tatum has definitely done more outside of scoring the ball, but he’s also shooting significantly worse than Brown, who has shot 50 percent or better from the field in 11 of his 14 games this postseason.
Does a big scoring series by Brown — with Tatum struggling from 3 this postseason — shift the odds in his favor? Given how quickly Boston has worked through its other opponents, I wouldn’t be shocked if one or two big games swing this market toward Brown.
Jayson Tatum (-115)
Tatum is an obvious choice to win this award, although you’re not getting a massive return on your investment if he does win.
Even though his shot isn’t falling the way he’d like, Tatum has stepped up on the glass – which was huge with Porzingis out for the majority of the playoffs – and as a passer.
Tatum doesn’t get a ton of credit for his passing ability, but he’s averaged over 5.0 assists per game in each of his last three playoff runs, reaching the NBA Finals twice in that stretch.
If Tatum and Brown play similarly, the market is suggesting that Tatum has the edge, and he’d likely be the choice to win this award. Given his usage, especially as a passer, Tatum has a path to this award as long as he matches Brown’s scoring output.
Jrue Holiday (+5000)
My dark horse pick for the NBA Finals MVP award on Boston is point guard Jrue Holiday, who was terrific against Indiana and has been on a heater over his last few playoff games.
Holiday is averaging 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game since Game 3 against Cleveland in the second round. He’s shooting an impressive 59.2 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from 3 in that stretch (seven games) while also taking on the toughest defensive assignment on a nightly basis.
That’s where Holiday has an interesting edge, as he could win this award if he shuts down Luka Doncic. We’ve seen it in the past (Andre Iguodala in 2015 and Kawhi Leonard in 2014) where the player tasked with guarding LeBron James earned the Finals MVP award.
It’s not a foolproof path for Holiday, but there’s certainly a chance he wins this, especially if Tatum and Brown don’t put together massive offensive numbers in the series.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
