The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to select.
I’ve covered quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, and you can read about all three by clicking the links above, so now it’s time to look at the tight ends. This is probably the least important position in fantasy football, so most managers will wait to fill it rather than take one of the top-end options. As a result, tiers will be uber valuable.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Sam LaPorta, Lions Travis Kelce, Chiefs Mark Andrews, Ravens Trey McBride, Cardinals
This is the first time in years that Kelce isn’t either in his own tier or the top player at tight end. That’s due to a “down” statistical year by his high standards, coupled with LaPorta’s breakout and the fact that Kelce is entering his age-35 season. Andrews should remain a top-five option, and I’ve also included McBride in this tier. He finished seventh in points last season, and that came despite seeing just 10 targets in his first five games. He’s a big breakout candidate.
Kincaid, like McBride, showed flashes of potential last season and is in a great position to bust out in the stat sheets. Kittle’s points-per-game averages have dropped each of the last six years, but he’s still a surefire top-10 option. Engram, last season’s third-best tight end, could see some regression but remains a starter in fantasy leagues. Could this finally be the year we see Pitts reach his fantasy potential? With Kirk Cousins at the helm, he hasn’t had this good of a chance to be a fantasy asset since he joined the league.
Njoku had a career-best season, but his numbers were far better with Joe Flacco under center than Deshaun Watson. That could be a concern. Ferguson continued the trend of Cowboys tight ends making a fantasy impact, posting a top-10 finish. Bowers is one of the best tight-end prospects to come out of college since Pitts, so he’ll be a popular sleeper even as a rookie. Goedert’s stats have decreased lately, but he’s still a viable fantasy starter.
Tier 4 – High TE2s
Dalton Schultz, Texans Pat Freiermuth, Steelers Cole Kmet, Bears
This is where the tight-end position starts to fade in terms of reliable options. Schultz was the TE10 last season, but you must wonder how much Stefon Diggs will eat into his targets. Freiermuth was a fantasy dud last season, but I’m expecting him to rebound, at least at some level, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Kmet, last season’s TE8, will struggle to regain that level after the Bears added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett.
Tier 5 – Mid TE2s
Hunter Henry, Patriots Luke Musgrave, Packers T.J. Hockenson, Vikings Taysom Hill, Saints Cade Otton, Buccaneers
This tier includes two sleepers in Musgrave and Otton, while Henry and Hill (it’s not a Goodfellas reference) will be matchup-based starters in most leagues. Hockenson is the most difficult player to project. He’s established himself as an elite player and would be in Tier 1 had he not suffered a late-season ACL tear. With no real timetable for when he’ll be back, Hockenson is tough to recommend as more than a risk-reward, No. 2 tight end.
Tier 6 – Low TE2s
Daniel Bellinger, Giants Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans Ben Sinnott, Commanders Juwan Johnson, Saints Tyler Conklin, Jets
There are some deep sleepers in this tier, including Bellinger, Sinnott and Johnson. You could also throw Okonkwo into that category, though target share could be an issue with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd all in the Titans’ offense. Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz, but the rookie has great upside and is worth a late flier. Johnson, who showed flashes of potential late last year, could also outplay his draft position.
There are a number of players who have had past fantasy success in this tier, but there’s not a whole lot of upside. Higbee is coming off an injury, so his stock has taken a nosedive. Gesicki is in a crowded Bengals pass attack. Hurst hasn’t been a fantasy-relevant player in several seasons. Ertz could be limited in Washington’s offense with Sinnott on the roster. Fant is a matchup-based option at best.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues could be looking at this group as late-round flies, but in reality there’s not a ton of value. Smith is a strong pass catcher, but the Dolphins offense doesn’t feature the tight end. Likely’s value is limited with Mark Andrews ahead of him on the Baltimore depth chart. Green Bay is loaded with good, young weapons, which will hurt the value of Kraft, who I have behind his teammate Musgrave in the rankings. Woods could be a worthwhile, deep-league flier, while Oliver could have some appeal in Minnesota while T.J. Hockenson is recovering from a torn ACL.
Greatness is difficult to achieve, and it can be even more difficult to duplicate. That’s why I always preach to fantasy football managers, new and old, to “beware the magical season" when preparing for drafts.
The NFL has had more than its share of players who failed to make good after a "magical" season. Remember Braylon Edwards, who looked like a fantasy star when he posted 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Browns in 2007? He went on to score 15 more touchdowns ... the rest of his career.
A more recent example is Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards and was the RB3 with the Raiders in 2022. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive last season. Jacobs rushed for 848 fewer yards and averaged 5.2 fewer fantasy points, finishing just 28th among fantasy runners.
There are countless other examples too, some of which include former gridiron greats. Heck, Dan Marino threw for almost 1,000 fewer passing yards and 18 fewer touchdowns (1985) following what was the best statistical campaign of his Hall-of-Fame career in 1984. Even Marino isn't exempt!
The point here is one monster season doesn't guarantee another, even if an elite athlete recorded it. So, which players who exceeded expectations last season might be in line for a decline in their statistical success in 2024?
Here's a list of 20 players, some of whom are elite fantasy players, who will still likely struggle to produce the same statistics from a season ago.
Josh Allen’s 15 rushing touchdowns: Allen and Jalen Hurts both rushed for 15 scores a season ago, which is the most by a quarterback in league history. What’s more, there’s only been six quarterbacks to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in a single season in the Super Bowl era. That list includes Allen, Hurts (2), Cam Newton (2), Kyler Murray, Kordell Stewart and Daunte Culpepper. Allen had never rushed for more than nine touchdowns in a single season before this past season, so I expect that 15-score total to decline.
Jalen Hurts’ 15 rushing touchdowns: Hurts is in the same boat as Allen, as he’ll struggle to hit the 15-rushing touchdown total again. The good news, though, is Hurts hit double digits in that category each of his last three seasons. Still, I’m more comfortable with a 10-TD projection, especially with fantasy superstar running back Saquon Barkley in the backfield.
Justin Herbert’s 35.1 pass attempts per game: The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season under Kellen Moore, and Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served in that role for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. During that time, the most pass attempts one of his quarterbacks has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone QB to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert, who will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 35.1 attempts.
Matthew Stafford’s late-season run: Stafford finished last year as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performances just once before in his career (2013). I wouldn’t expect the veteran to duplicate such a productive span of games again.
Breece Hall’s 95 targets and 76 receptions: Hall finished last season as the RB2, due in part to a serious statistical run in the second half that saw him emerge as a huge option in the Jets pass attack. In his first eight games, Hall averaged 3.9 targets and 2.9 catches. He went off in his final 10 games, however, averaging a stout 6.8 targets and 5.7 receptions.
That rise in targets and catches came in large part because of the quarterbacks the Jets were using. Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle started a combined five games (played in eight), and they targeted Hall a ton out of the backfield. The duo combined to target running backs on nearly 30 percent of their pass attempts! By comparison, Aaron Rodgers targeted his runners as receivers in just 20.7% of his passes in his last season in Green Bay.
Raheem Mostert’s 21 touchdowns: Mostert came out of nowhere to score 21 times last season. He had scored just 19 touchdowns in his previous eight years … combined! Those touchdowns made up for 47 percent of his 267.7 points, so regression is coming. Heck, even if Mostert scores eight to 10 touchdowns in 2024, I’d consider that a major win as a fantasy manager.
Aaron Jones’ late-season touches: Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush, and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged a robust 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 fantasy points. That is a massive increase for the veteran runner.
If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He also rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this “magical” stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games! So, as good as he was in this stretch, it’s likely to be an outlier.
Gus Edwards’ 13 rushing touchdowns: Edwards was a red-zone machine last season, scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground. He had rushed for 13 touchdowns in his previous four years … combined! So, while he will be in the run-based offense of new coordinator Greg Roman in Los Angeles, Edwards will have competition for touches in the form of J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal. Six to eight touchdowns might be more attainable.
Puka Nacua’s 1,575 receiving yards: Nacua was a stat monster last season, finishing fourth in fantasy points among wideouts. He did it, in large part, based on his rookie-record 1,575 receiving yards. That begs the question … what if Cooper Kupp stays healthy for most of this season?
After all, Nacua averaged 78.7 yards in the 12 games he played with Kupp last season. That would be around 1,338 yards over a full season. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 108.4 yards. That would project to over 1,840 yards. So, anyone who is drafting Nacua in the first round and expecting a duplication of his 2023 yardage totals has to be doing so with the thought Kupp is going to miss a portion of the season. If not, Nacua might end up being less productive in terms of real and fantasy football.
Stefon Diggs 160 targets: Diggs averaged 9.4 targets per game last season and was sixth in targets among wideouts. It was the fourth straight year he had seen at least 154 targets. That trend is unlikely to continue though, as he now joins a crowded receiver’s room with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. With Collins averaging 7.3 targets per game and Dell at just under seven, it’s difficult to see Diggs getting over nine per game, not to mention 160 targets. Instead, I’d project him for closer to 130-140 unless injuries occur.
Keenan Allen’s 1,249 receiving yards: Some might have forgotten because he was injured late in the season, but Allen was an elite fantasy wideout in his first 13 games. That won’t be the case this season, though. With his move to the Bears, he’ll have to share targets with DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. Also, keep this in mind … the Bears have had only nine wide receivers post 1,000-plus yards in the Super Bowl era. What’s more, the offense has produced multiple 1,000-yard WRs in the same season twice (1995, 2013).
Courtland Sutton’s 85.6% catchable target rate: Sutton finished as the WR35 last year, which came even though he scored 10 touchdowns and was third among wideouts (min. 75 targets) in catchable target rate. That came because of Russell Wilson, who ranked third in adjusted completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 10 games played. That stat factors in drops, spikes, throwaways, hits as the ball is thrown and batted balls, per Fantasy Points Data. With a rookie in Bo Nix or Zach Wilson (QB21 in ADJ CMP%), Sutton will likely see far fewer accurate passes in the Broncos offense.
Rashee Rice late-season target share: Rice was one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football in the second half of last season, ranking WR8 based on points over the final eight weeks. In that time, he saw 23.9% of the wide receiver targets in Kansas City, compared to a 12.6% share in his first 10 contests. The Chiefs added Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy in the offseason, however, which will no doubt put a dent into Rice’s share. He is also expected to be suspended for off-field issues, decreasing his value further.
DeAndre Hopkins’ 137 targets: Hopkins has long been a fantasy star, but he’s started to lose a little of his sparkle. He posted an average of 13.2 fantasy points per game last year, which is his lowest total since his rookie campaign, and it took him 137 targets to do it. With the addition of Calvin Ridley, who saw 136 targets last season, not to mention Tyler Boyd, who knows the offense of new head coach Brian Callahan, and Nuk’s target share is in serious danger of dropping even further as he enters his age-33 campaign.
Jordan Addison’s 10 receiving touchdowns: Addison finished a solid WR23 as a rookie, mostly on the strength of his 10 touchdown catches. The problem is seven of those scores came with Kirk Cousins throwing him the football. In the nine games without him, Addison found the end zone just three times. Who knows, maybe journeyman San Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy will exceed expectations, but 10 scores for Addison seems unlikely.
Adam Thielen’s 231 PPR fantasy points: Thielen was a star in the first half of last season, ranking eighth in fantasy points among wideouts while averaging 17.8 points. His stats went south the rest of the season, however, as Thielen was the WR43 in his final eight games with an average of 8.9 points. With the additions of Dionte Johnson and Xavier Legette, Thielen will struggle to hit even the 200-point mark during his age-34 campaign.
Evan Engram’s 963 receiving yards: Engram is coming off a career season that saw him put up 963 yards, which is 197 more yards than his previous high (2022). Fantasy managers should keep in mind, however, he was more effective when Christian Kirk was out. In five games without Kirk, Engram averaged a robust 71.4 yards. Compare that to the 50.5 yards he averaged when Kirk was active, and it’s obvious Engram’s ceiling was affected. Also, the Jaguars added Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. in the offseason.
David Njoku’s 882 receiving yards: Njoku was a fantasy star last season, finishing sixth among tight ends in total fantasy points. He was also sixth in yards at the position. Where I’m concerned is in his splits with and without Deshaun Watson. When Joe Flacco was in place of an injured Watson, Njoku averaged 78 yards per game. With Watson under center, that total shrunk to a modest 38.3 yards. The Browns also added wideout Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, so Njoku could be hard-pressed to post more than 650 yards.
Cole Kmet’s touchdown market share: Kmet was a popular target for Justin Fields in the red zone last season, posting a 31.6% receiving touchdown market share (min. 75 targets) per Fantasy Points Data. That was second best behind only Sam LaPorta. Unfortunately, that percentage seems destined to fall with the trio of Moore, Allen, and Odunze at wide receiver, not to mention the addition of veteran tight end Gerald Everett, in 2024.
Jonnu Smith’s 70 targets: There was a time last season when Smith was a startable asset in fantasy leagues, even outscoring his former teammate, Kyle Pitts. Unfortunately, his move to Miami will not benefit him in the stat sheets. Since coach Mike McDaniel took over the offense, his tight ends have averaged a league-low 2.2 fantasy points per game. Their tight ends also ranked dead last in targets, receptions and yards, and they’re tied for the second-fewest touchdowns scored. That’s bad news for Smith’s fantasy appeal.
The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see other players on that same tier who are good alternatives.
I’ve covered the quarterback teirs, so now let’s look at the running backs. With the number of true featured runners dwindling, backs have lost some of their past luster in drafts. This should change strategies, as managers can wait and still land productive runners in rounds 4-5 and beyond.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
McCaffrey has a chance to finish his career as one of the best fantasy running backs ever, even on the same level as greats like LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk. For that reason, I have him on his own tier. He’ll be the consensus top overall pick in the majority of drafts too, making McCaffrey the most valued asset in fantasy football once again.
Robinson had a good but not great rookie season, finishing ninth in PPR points. Still, I can see him pushing into the top three in Year 2, as he’ll no longer be “handcuffed” under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Hall finished second in points among runners last season, and that was after coming off a serious knee injury. Barkley, who finished as the RB12 in 2023, should push into the top five or 10 behind a solid Eagles offensive line. Gibbs will continue to split work in Detroit with David Montgomery, but he has top-five upside.
Tier 3 – Mid RB1s
Jonathan Taylor, Colts Travis Etienne, Jaguars Kyren Williams, Rams
Taylor had his ups and downs last season, but he finished strong with 17-plus points in three of his last four games. He also won’t lose work to Zack Moss, who is now with the Bengals. Etienne, last season’s No. 3 runner, will be picked in Round 2 or 3. Williams was a superstar last year, scoring 15 touchdowns in 12 games. He does lack durability, however, and the Rams drafted Blake Corum. That makes Williams a bit of a risk, but he's still a top-25 pick.
Jacobs is coming off a bad season, especially compared to what he accomplished in 2022, but signing with the Packers is a positive for his fantasy appeal. Henry is entering his age-30 season, but he still finished as the RB8 last year and has little competition for touches in Baltimore. White might struggle to duplicate the RB4 finish he had last year, but he’ll remain a top-50 overall fantasy selection. White is also a strong pass catcher, which benefits his value. Pacheco is the featured back in Kansas City and could push into the top 10.
Achane was a fantasy superstar at times as a rookie, but his ceiling could still be limited with Raheem Mostert in the Miami backfield. Still, he has RB1 potential. Cook was solid once Joe Brady took over the Bills offense last season, averaging more than 16 points. He should remain the team’s lead back, even with the addition of rookie Ray Davis. Kamara averaged almost 20 touches per game last season and should still be in the RB1/RB2 mix. Walker hasn’t truly busted out in the stat sheets, but he’s been a steady No. 2 option.
Tier 6 – Mid RB2s
Joe Mixon, Texans Zack Moss, Bengals D'Andre Swift, Bears Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots James Conner, Cardinals
Mixon’s move to Houston could affect his touches to a degree, but he’s still a solid No. 2 option. Remember, he finished as the RB6 last season. His replacement in Cincinnati, Moss, will be a popular breakout candidate. I can see him easily finishing in the top 15-20 runners as their featured back. Swift was the RB20 with the Eagles in 2023, and he’ll push for that sort of finish now that he’s in Chicago. Stevenson didn’t put up great totals last season, but he also missed five games. In PPR formats, he should push back into the RB2 range even with Antonio Gibson in the mix. Conner was a league winner for managers at the end of last season, but he missed four games and could lose some work to rookie Trey Benson.
Tier 7 – Low RB2s
Zamir White, Raiders Jonathon Brooks, Panthers Nick Chubb, Browns Aaron Jones, Vikings Raheem Mostert, Dolphins David Montgomery, Lions
This tier includes sleepers/breakouts White and Brooks, who could see a featured role for their respective teams. Chubb is coming off a serious knee injury, so it’s tough to project him as more than a No. 2 fantasy runner. If he can re-claim his previous form, however, Chubb could be a major bargain. Jones missed six games a season ago, but he was a star down the stretch and figures to be the top back in Minnesota. Mostert is coming off a career year that saw him score 21 touchdowns, so regression is imminent. Montgomery was the RB17 in 2023, but he’s likely to play second fiddle to Gibbs.
Tier 8 – High RB3s/Flex
Najee Harris, Steelers Tony Pollard, Titans Austin Ekeler, Commanders Javonte Williams, Broncos Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
Harris hasn’t been able to return to the elite fantasy status he enjoyed as a rookie, and the emergence of Jaylen Warren makes him hard to trust as more than a flex. Pollard, coming off a disappointing final season in Dallas, could find himself in a committee with Tyjae Spears. Ekeler and Robinson Jr. will share the work in Washington, limiting both their ceilings, and Williams finds himself in a crowded Denver backfield that could limit his upside.
Singletary could be a nice bargain in fantasy drafts, as he knows Brian Daboll's offense well and has little competition for touches. Warren was more efficient than Harris last season, so he’s not too far behind his teammate in the rankings. The Titans will use both Pollard and Spears in their backfield, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the latter was more effective in the stat sheets. Zeke is back in Dallas, but he’ll be part of a committee with Rico Dowdle and others.
This tier includes handcuffs and backs who will compete for depth-chart positioning in camp. Benson, Allgeier and Ford will all be valuable insurance, while Edwards and Dobbins will compete for the top spot in Los Angeles (though a committee is imminent). Charbonnet, Brown and Corum will also be seen as handcuffs, though all three could push for standalone value.
Tier 11 – Mid to Low RB4s/Handcuffs
Ty Chandler, Vikings Rico Dowdle, Cowboys Chuba Hubbard, Panthers Antonio Gibson, Patriots Alexander Mattison, Raiders Kendre Miller, Saints
This tier is also full of committee backs and potential fantasy handcuffs, including guys like Chandler, Dowdle and Hubbard. Each of them, and Gibson, could also push for standalone flex value. Miller could be a deep sleeper if Kamara is forced to miss some playing time.
Welcome to the “dart throw” tier! This group includes potential handcuffs and several young running backs competing for touches with their respective teams. Vidal is an interesting option, as he’ll have the one-dimensional Edwards and the injury-prone Dobbins ahead of him on the Chargers depth chart. Fellow rookies Lloyd, Davis, and Wright are late fliers, but none of them will open the season higher than second on their teams.
The evolution of fantasy football has seen the wide receiver position take on added value in recent seasons. It’s obvious in early average draft position (ADP) data, as seven of the top 10 overall players being picked in 2024 drafts are wideouts. This, of course, has increased the value (and craze) at the position. That does beg the question, however: how much is too much? After all, there’s just one football right? There’s only so many targets a team can spread around, so sometimes true value comes down to simple math.
This is important when we look at NFL teams that have multiple wide receivers who are projected to make a fantasy impact. Heading into 2024, there are several teams with what I would call a talented but crowded receivers’ room that comes with fantasy question marks.
The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Texans, who have Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell all ranked in the top 36. The Chicago Bears are in the same boat, as the team features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Seattle Seahawks also have three solid receivers in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the Miami Dolphins added Odell Beckham Jr. to incumbents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There is no shortage of other teams that have three or more receivers who will compete for targets in training camp and the preseason, too. The Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots all fall into this category.
That’s going to bring a lot of speculation as to who will earn the most targets and ultimately, make the biggest fantasy impact. But looking at the past (as you know I love to do), I found that more often than not, it can be almost impossible for an offense to boast two or more consistently productive wide receivers at the same time and in the same season.
In fact, you’ll be shocked at the data I found over the last 20 years.
In order for a receiver to qualify, he had to average at least 14 PPR points per game (low-WR2 level in 2023) and play in at least eight games in any given season. First, let’s take a look at the offenses that have fielded three receivers who have scored at least 14 points during the same statistical campaign.
Notes: Season-long points-per-game averages and finishes among WRs are listed first. When one or more WRs played in less than a full season, the points-per-game averages in games where all three were active is listed under “ALL.”
2013 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas 18.2 (WR1) – ALL 19.4 Eric Decker 16.8 (WR9) – ALL 16.7 Wes Welker 16.1 (WR21 – 13 games) – ALL 16
2018 Los Angeles Rams Cooper Kupp 16.9 (WR51 – 8 games) – ALL 16.1 Robert Woods 16.6 (WR11) – ALL 16.4 Brandin Cooks 15.2 (WR13) – ALL 19.8
2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin 15.9 (WR31 - 12 games) – ALL 15.8 Mike Evans 15.5 (WR11) – ALL 17.4 Antonio Brown 14.6 (WR65 - 8 games) – ALL 14.6
2020 Carolina Panthers Curtis Samuel 14.1 (WR27 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 DJ Moore 14.1 (WR28 - 15 games) – ALL 14.1 Robbie Anderson 14.0 (WR29) – ALL 13.4
There were just five teams over 20 years of data encompassing 32 NFL teams (or 640 opportunities) where an offense fielded three receivers who averaged at least 14 points. In three of those cases, it took all-time great quarterbacks (Peyton Manning – 2004, 2013 and Tom Brady – 2020) to accomplish this feat. And, in the case of the 2020 Panthers, none of their three wide receivers who scored at least 14 points finished higher than WR27.
So, even with the talent on their rosters, this trend doesn’t bode well for the Texans, Bears, Seahawks (and to a lesser degree, the Dolphins) of boasting three receivers who are regular fantasy starters. Digging a bit deeper, 14 of the 32 teams have failed to produce more than two seasons where its offense has had two wideouts averaging more than 14 points in the same calendar year.
Here’s a look at each team and the number of seasons it’s had at least two wide receivers averaging 14 or more fantasy points (eight games min.).
Six Seasons: Steelers
Five Seasons: Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Packers, Vikings
No Seasons: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, Ravens
Some of these results aren’t surprising, as the Steelers had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. The Falcons have fielded great likes Julio Jones, Roddy White and Calvin Ridley (maybe Drake London joins the list), and the Bengals have had Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Terrell Owens, A.J. Green, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Broncos have also had five seasons with multiple wideouts at 14 or more points, but that hasn’t happened since 2018.
What’s surprising is the bottom half, where the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Commanders, and Ravens have never had two receivers averaging 14 or more points. Keep that in the back of your mind when you’re drafting Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Xavier Worthy, Jahan Dotson and anyone in Baltimore not named Zay Flowers (and he didn’t average 14 points per game last season). Sorry, all of you Rashod Bateman truthers!
The data that I’ve compiled tells a story that in most cases (since 2004), an NFL team can’t support three wideouts who average at least 14 points a game.
Taking that a step further, 44 percent of teams have had one or fewer such wideouts in a single season in the last 20 years. So, in the cases of teams like the Bills, Panthers, Browns, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots, all of whom have major depth chart questions among their wideouts, I wouldn’t expect to find more than one receiver on each team that becomes a reliable and productive fantasy starter for the entire season.
