The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching, so it’s time to look at fantasy positional “tiers.” Unlike my PPR player rankings, tiers group players of similar value. So, if you miss out on a particular player on a tier in your draft, you can see others on that same tier who are good alternatives to select.
I’ve covered quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, and you can read about all three by clicking the links above, so now it’s time to look at the tight ends. This is probably the least important position in fantasy football, so most managers will wait to fill it rather than take one of the top-end options. As a result, tiers will be uber valuable.
Tier 1 – The Elite
Sam LaPorta, Lions Travis Kelce, Chiefs Mark Andrews, Ravens Trey McBride, Cardinals
This is the first time in years that Kelce isn’t either in his own tier or the top player at tight end. That’s due to a “down” statistical year by his high standards, coupled with LaPorta’s breakout and the fact that Kelce is entering his age-35 season. Andrews should remain a top-five option, and I’ve also included McBride in this tier. He finished seventh in points last season, and that came despite seeing just 10 targets in his first five games. He’s a big breakout candidate.
Kincaid, like McBride, showed flashes of potential last season and is in a great position to bust out in the stat sheets. Kittle’s points-per-game averages have dropped each of the last six years, but he’s still a surefire top-10 option. Engram, last season’s third-best tight end, could see some regression but remains a starter in fantasy leagues. Could this finally be the year we see Pitts reach his fantasy potential? With Kirk Cousins at the helm, he hasn’t had this good of a chance to be a fantasy asset since he joined the league.
Njoku had a career-best season, but his numbers were far better with Joe Flacco under center than Deshaun Watson. That could be a concern. Ferguson continued the trend of Cowboys tight ends making a fantasy impact, posting a top-10 finish. Bowers is one of the best tight-end prospects to come out of college since Pitts, so he’ll be a popular sleeper even as a rookie. Goedert’s stats have decreased lately, but he’s still a viable fantasy starter.
Tier 4 – High TE2s
Dalton Schultz, Texans Pat Freiermuth, Steelers Cole Kmet, Bears
This is where the tight-end position starts to fade in terms of reliable options. Schultz was the TE10 last season, but you must wonder how much Stefon Diggs will eat into his targets. Freiermuth was a fantasy dud last season, but I’m expecting him to rebound, at least at some level, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Kmet, last season’s TE8, will struggle to regain that level after the Bears added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Gerald Everett.
Tier 5 – Mid TE2s
Hunter Henry, Patriots Luke Musgrave, Packers T.J. Hockenson, Vikings Taysom Hill, Saints Cade Otton, Buccaneers
This tier includes two sleepers in Musgrave and Otton, while Henry and Hill (it’s not a Goodfellas reference) will be matchup-based starters in most leagues. Hockenson is the most difficult player to project. He’s established himself as an elite player and would be in Tier 1 had he not suffered a late-season ACL tear. With no real timetable for when he’ll be back, Hockenson is tough to recommend as more than a risk-reward, No. 2 tight end.
Tier 6 – Low TE2s
Daniel Bellinger, Giants Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans Ben Sinnott, Commanders Juwan Johnson, Saints Tyler Conklin, Jets
There are some deep sleepers in this tier, including Bellinger, Sinnott and Johnson. You could also throw Okonkwo into that category, though target share could be an issue with Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd all in the Titans’ offense. Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz, but the rookie has great upside and is worth a late flier. Johnson, who showed flashes of potential late last year, could also outplay his draft position.
There are a number of players who have had past fantasy success in this tier, but there’s not a whole lot of upside. Higbee is coming off an injury, so his stock has taken a nosedive. Gesicki is in a crowded Bengals pass attack. Hurst hasn’t been a fantasy-relevant player in several seasons. Ertz could be limited in Washington’s offense with Sinnott on the roster. Fant is a matchup-based option at best.
Fantasy managers in deeper leagues could be looking at this group as late-round flies, but in reality there’s not a ton of value. Smith is a strong pass catcher, but the Dolphins offense doesn’t feature the tight end. Likely’s value is limited with Mark Andrews ahead of him on the Baltimore depth chart. Green Bay is loaded with good, young weapons, which will hurt the value of Kraft, who I have behind his teammate Musgrave in the rankings. Woods could be a worthwhile, deep-league flier, while Oliver could have some appeal in Minnesota while T.J. Hockenson is recovering from a torn ACL.
Success in fantasy drafts is all about projecting which players are on the verge of a big season, and knowing who might take a step back in the numbers. It’s those players, who have been labeled as “busts” in the past, who can be the most detrimental to a fantasy manager’s chances at winning a title.
That might not be truer at a position than wide receiver.
The reason is simple: wideouts have emerged as the single most important position in all fantasy football. That means missing out on a high-end receiver can be tough to overcome. Case in point … fantasy managers who whiffed on Cooper Kupp last season probably had some major issues at the position, unless they picked up his teammate, Puka Nacua.
Most folks probably weren’t so fortunate, however.
With that in mind, here are eight receivers who will be high draft picks or are big names who could struggle to produce as prominent starters.
1. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
I had Adams listed as a player to beware last season, and he went on to post decreased totals in almost every statistical category. He still finished in the top 10 in points among wideouts, but he was wildly inconsistent. Adams scored fewer than 13 points in nine games, including five with single digits.
The Raiders don’t have an attractive quarterback situation with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew and the team drafted tight end Brock Bowers in the first round. That could affect Adams’ target share, at least to some degree. So, for those thinking Adams could return to elite fantasy status or that he’ll be more consistent, you might want to think again.
2. Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Diggs is coming off a disappointing second half of last season, which resulted in him averaging just 16.1 points per game. That was his lowest total with the Bills. Now in Houston, he joins a super-talented core of receivers that includes Nico Collins, who broke out last season, and Tank Dell, who was on his way to busting out before getting hurt. The team also boasts Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz and a new running back in Joe Mixon. Diggs will be hard-pressed to see anywhere near the target share he enjoyed in Buffalo. Unless injuries occur on the roster, Diggs can’t be trusted to retain his previously elite status.
3. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
I know, listing Kupp as a bust candidate after he was a bust last season is low-hanging fruit. And, honestly, part of me wants to put Nacua in the article. After all, we could be (and likely are) drafting him based on a magical, ceiling season in the stat sheets. But the truth is, Kupp has only played in 13 games in the last two years due to injuries, and he’s entering his age-31 season. That makes him a hard fade as a No. 1 wideout, and he’s even a risk as a No. 2.
4. Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Ridley was a top-20 fantasy wideout last year, but he was anything but reliable. He scored fewer than 12 points 10 times including nine where he scored single digits. Now in Tennessee, the veteran will be catching passes from a young quarterback in Will Levis and contending for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and Tyler Boyd. The Titans also have two good backs in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, so Ridley could be hard-pressed to see high target totals consistently. To me, he’s only a No. 3 wideout.
5. Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Allen was putting up monster numbers last year, but injuries cost him what might have been a career-best campaign. However, an offseason trade to the Bears makes him a lot less attractive from a fantasy standpoint. Their offense is led by a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and it’s loaded with talent that includes DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. That’s a lot of mouths to feed, making it unlikely that Allen will see 150-plus targets. If you do draft him, it should be as a No. 3 receiver.
6. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett is coming off a down season that saw his reception, yardage, and touchdown totals decrease compared to 2022. What’s more, his 11.9 point-per-game average was his lowest since 2017. Entering his age-31 season (he’ll turn 32 in September), I see Lockett falling behind teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the pecking order. That idea is playing out in drafts, as JSN is going ahead of Lockett based on average draft position. With the statistical arrow pointing downward, he shouldn’t be picked as more than a No. 4 option in drafts.
7. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson was considered a breakout player last year, but he went on to miss eight games due to injuries and was held to fewer than 12 points in all but two of the nine games he was active. His absence opened the door for teammates Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to emerge into viable options for Jordan Love and fantasy managers. I’m not opposed to taking him in the later rounds as a No. 4 wideout, but I’m otherwise out on Watson.
8. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Thielen was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football in the first half of last season, averaging 20.2 points in his first seven games. The wheels fell off after that, however, as he dropped to 8.9 points in his final 10 contests. Aside from that, Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, so Thielen will struggle to see such a high target share again. Entering his age-34 season, he isn’t worth more than a late-round selection.
With the calendar hitting the middle of June, we are quickly getting into the fantasy football draft season. To help build your strategies and give you a look into what your drafts might look like, I’ve done yet another of my one-man, 10-round mock drafts to help you determine which fantasy players might be picked where in your upcoming leagues.
This mock draft includes 12 teams and is based on a full PPR scoring system. Each team is required to start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end and two flex starters (non-super flex).
No kickers or D/STs were required in this mock.
Each team went into the draft with a different strategy in the first five rounds.
1.1. Team 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers 1.2. Team 2: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys 1.3. Team 3: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins 1.4. Team 4: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings 1.5. Team 5: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions 1.6. Team 6: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals 1.7. Team 7: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons 1.8. Team 8: Breece Hall, RB, Jets 1.9. Team 9: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles 1.10. Team 10: Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles 1.11. Team 11: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions 1.12. Team 12: Puka Nacua, WR, Rams
Notes: This is going to be a mostly chalk top-12 picks. McCaffrey will lead the way, and Robinson, Hall, Barkley and Gibbs are all worth first-round picks at running back. Some might not think as highly about Barkley, but he was the RB13 last season in a lousy offense and missed three games. Imagine what he could be in Philadelphia! I have Lamb as the top wideout, slightly ahead of Hill and Jefferson (who has a questionable situation at quarterback but should still produce). In all, seven of the top 12 picks are wideouts. That includes Nacua, who busted out last season and now ranks far ahead of his veteran teammate in Los Angeles, Cooper Kupp.
ROUND 2
2.13. Team 12: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets 2.14. Team 11: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts 2.15. Team 10: Marvin Jarrison Jr., WR, Cardinals 2.16. Team 9: Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars 2.18. Team 7: Davante Adams, WR, Raiders 2.19. Team 6: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts 2.20. Team 5: Chris Olave, WR, Saints 2.21. Team 4: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers 2.22. Team 3: Drake London, WR, Falcons 2.23. Team 2: Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers 2.24. Team 1: Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
Notes: This round is also dominated by wide receivers, with seven coming off the board. That includes Wilson and Harrison Jr., who are both breakout candidates for fantasy fans. London is also in line for a career season with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, which has pushed him into the top 24. At running back, I have Williams in the top 20 despite some of his durability concerns and the addition of Blake Corum. I’m also in on Jacobs, now in Green Bay, to rebound from a poor 2023. I also like Henry to remain productive in purple.
ROUND 3
3.25. Team 1: Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles 3.26. Team 2: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers 3.27. Team 3: Josh Allen, QB, Bills 3.28. Team 4: Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers 3.29. Team 5: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs 3.30. Team 6: De’Vone Achane, RB, Dolphins 3.31. Team 7: James Cook, RB, Bills 3.32. Team 8: DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks 3.33. Team 9: Nico Collins, WR, Texans 3.34. Team 10: Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints 3.35. Team 11: Ken Walker, RB, Seahawks 3.36. Team 12: Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, 49ers
Notes: This is the first round we see a quarterback, as Hurts and Allen were picked in the top three. It’s also at this time when we see more running backs coming off the board, as White, Pacheco, Achane, Cook, Kamara and Walker all had their names called. White, Pacheco and Achane are RB1s for their respective teams, while Cook and Kamara are RB2s. Team 11, which went running back, running back, running back, landed Walker as its RB3. Of course, Walker will be more of a No. 2 runner in most drafts. The wideouts who came off the board include Evans, Metcalf, Collins and Samuel Sr.
ROUND 4
4.37. Team 12: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions 4.38. Team 11: DJ Moore, WR, Bears 4.39. Team 10: Stefon Diggs, WR, Texans 4.40. Team 9: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs 4.41. Team 8: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins 4.42. Team 7: Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles 4.43. Team 6: Joe Mixon, RB, Texans 4.44. Team 5: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs 4.45. Team 4: Malik Nabers, WR, Giants 4.46. Team 3: Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens 4.47. Team 2: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams 4.48. Team 1: Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
Notes: LaPorta, the first tight end to come off the board, is also the first player taken in the round. Kelce, the top tight end in the previous five years, came in just a few spots later. The wide receiver feeding frenzy picked back up in the round too as seven more were drafted. That includes Diggs, who I have going one round behind his new teammate, Collins, and the second rookie wideout, Nabers. Kupp, who was a first-round pick last season, falls to the end of Round 4 after missing more games due to injuries last season, coupled with Nacua’s emergence into one of the elite wide receivers in fantasy football.
ROUND 5
5.49. Team 1: Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals 5.50. Team 2: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens 5.51. Team 3: D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears 5.52. Team 4: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots 5.53. Team 5: Zack Moss, RB, Bengals 5.54. Team 6: Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders 5.55. Team 7: Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars 5.56. Team 8: Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens 5.57. Team 9: James Conner, RB, Cardinals 5.58. Team 10: C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans 5.59. Team 11: Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers 5.60. Team 12: Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Notes: This round also starts with a tight end in McBride, who I see as a major breakout candidate. He has top-three upside as the Cardinals' unquestioned No. 1 option at the position. Three quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson are also called in this round. Several teams that went with wide receivers in the first three to four rounds are now looking for values as their No. 1 or 2 running back. Those included Swift, Stevenson, Moss, and Conner. I might have McConkey ranked a bit higher than some other analysts, but the target share potential with the Chargers is hard to ignore.
ROUND 6
6.61. Team 12: Zamir White, RB, Raiders 6.62. Team 11: Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals 6.63. Team 10: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills 6.64. Team 9: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals 6.65. Team 8: Jonathon Brooks, RB, Colts 6.66. Team 7: Nick Chubb, RB, Browns 6.67. Team 6: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys 6.68. Team 5: Geroge Pickens, WR, Steelers 6.69. Team 4: George Kittle, TE, 49ers 6.70. Team 3: Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings 6.71. Team 2: Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins 6.72. Team 1: Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
Notes: White, a potential breakout candidate as the new lead back in Las Vegas, is picked as an RB1 for Team 12. That squad started with three wideouts, a tight end and quarterback. Brooks is the first rookie runner off the board, while veteran Chubb drops out of the top 60 coming off a gruesome knee injury suffered last season. Kincaid, another tight end who could bust out, went a few spots ahead of Kittle. Mostert, who scored 21 touchdowns and was a top-five runner last season, lasts until the end of sixth round. Projected touchdown regression is an absolute draft killer!
ROUND 7
7.73. Team 1: Keenan Allen, WR, Bears 7.74. Team 2: David Montgomery, RB, Lions 7.75. Team 3: Tank Dell, WR, Texans 7.76. Team 4: Najee Harris, RB, Steelers 7.77. Team 5: Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons 7.78. Team 6: Tony Pollard, RB, Titans 7.79. Team 7: Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars 7.80. Team 8: Jordan Love, QB, Packers 7.81. Team 9: Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders 7.82. Team 10: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos 7.83. Team 11: David Njoku, TE, Browns 7.84. Team 12: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders
Notes: Allen, whose stock took a dive when the Chargers traded him to the Bears, is the first pick of Round 7. He’ll serve as the No. 3 wideout for Team 1. The round includes just one more wideout, Dell, who also lost value due to personnel changes (most notably, the addition of Diggs). This was a running back heavy round with six coming off the board. That includes both Commanders runners, Ekeler and Robinson Jr., and Pollard. He’ll serve as the new projected starter in Tennessee, though a committee situation with Tyjae Spears could put a cap on his fantasy ceiling. There are also three tight ends in this round, with Pitts being picked first. With Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, this is his best shot to bust out and finally meet his lofty fantasy expectations.
ROUND 8
8.85. Team 12: Devin Singletary, RB, Giants 8.86. Team 11: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals 8.87. Team 10: Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans 8.88. Team 9: Diontae Johnson, WR, Panthers 8.89. Team 8: Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys 8.90. Team 7: Brock Purdy, QB 49ers 8.91. Team 6: Marquise Brown, WR, Chiefs 8.92. Team 5: Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers 8.93. Team 4: Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos 8.94. Team 3: Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers 8.95. Team 2: Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs 8.96. Team 1: Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
Notes: There are some nice potential values in the round, including quarterbacks Murray and Purdy. Singletary has never been a fantasy superstar, but he seems to have the Giants backfield all to himself and he knows the offense of coach Brian Daboll from their time in Buffalo. The round also includes both Chiefs wide receivers in Brown and Rice. No one knows if and for how long Rice will be suspended for his off-field issues, so he’s tough to project at this point. Still, these will be Kansas City’s projected starters in 2024.
ROUND 9
9.97. Team 1: Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans 9.98. Team 2: Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders 9.99. Team 3: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys 9.100. Team 4: Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders 9.101. Team 5: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks 9.102. Team 6: Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles 9.103. Team 7: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans 9.104. Team 8: Jameson Williams, WR, Lions 9.105. Team 9: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks 9.106. Team 10: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars 9.107. Team 11: Keon Coleman, WR, Bills 9.108. Team 12: Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
Notes: Round 9 is full of potential values, including Spears, Bowers, Daniels, JSN, and Williams. Personally, I have Daniels as a breakout candidate in his rookie season. I also like Williams, who is getting a lot of positive hype out of Detroit. The round ends with six wideouts, three of which are rookies. I have Smith-Njigba and Lockett coming off the board within a few picks of each other, but I’m higher on the former in his second year. Thomas Jr., Coleman, and Worthy could earn significant roles for their respective teams and could move up in future mocks. For now I like them as No. 4 fantasy receivers.
ROUND 10
10.109. Team 12: Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals 10.110. Team 11: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks 10.111. Team 10: Rome Odunze, WR, Bears 10.112. Team 9: Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens 10.113. Team 8: Jerome Ford, RB, Browns 10.114. Team 7: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons 10.115. Team 6: Chase Brown, RB, Bengals 10.116. Team 5: Christian Watson, WR, Packers 10.117. Team 4: Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons 10.118. Team 3: Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers 10.119. Team 2: Mike Williams, WR, Jets 10.120. Team 1: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
Notes: The second rookie running back, Benson, starts things off in the 10th. He’s one of six runners picked in the round, all of which are committee of handcuff options. Odunze might be more talented than some of the rookie wideouts who have been drafted ahead of him, but his landing spot was the least attractive causing his re-draft stock to fall. This is also the round where Cousins, who was on pace to throw for 5,000 yards last season, had his name called. Now in Atlanta, he should push for top-12 quarterback value.
Stats. They can be deceiving, especially in the world of fantasy football.
Case in point … in 2022, Miles Sanders rushed for over 1,200 yards, scored 11 total touchdowns, and was the RB15. Seems pretty good, right? Well, what if I told you he scored fewer than 12 points in 10-of-17 games (59%), and 41 percent of his points came in three games? Suddenly, Sanders isn’t looking so good … and that showed in 2023.
With that in mind, I dove into the numbers and picked out 25 nuggets you need to know before you draft your fantasy football teams in 2024. Some surround false perceptions of players, like Sanders in 2022, while others point out how coaching changes did and could affect future player outcomes. Others discuss player personnel moves and how those will positively or negatively affect how a player performs in 2024.
So, sit back, relax, read and make sure to keep these nuggets in mind when you draft!
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen averaged 22.5 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator last season. During that time, the Bills ranked 13th in pass percentage and 20th in run percentage. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Allen averaged 24.1 points (seven games). The Bills went from 13th to 31st in pass percentage and from 20th to second in run percentage. Those are notable differences.
C.J. Stroud threw the ball 499 times last season. That tied for 14th among quarterbacks. His leading receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, averaged 7.3 targets and 6.8 targets per game, respectively. Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with the Bills, averaged 9.4 targets per game last season. If we project these target totals over a full season, Stroud would throw the ball 400 times to Diggs, Collins and Dell alone for them to meet those averages.
In Kliff Kingsbury’s five seasons as the head coach in Arizona, Kyler Murray averaged 6.5 rushes and 37.7 rushing yards per game. He also rushed for 26 touchdowns. That is good news for rookie Jayden Daniels, who will work under Kingsbury in Washington. In his final two seasons at LSU, Daniels rushed 321 times for 2,019 yards and 21 scores.
Jared Goff is scheduled to play 14 of his 17 games this season in either a dome or a retractable roof stadium. In his 25 career home games in Detroit, Goff has averaged 19.3 fantasy points. Ford Field, of course, is a dome. That’s the good news. The bad news is that in six road games in a dome or retractable roof stadium as a member of the Lions, Goff has averaged a mere 10.5 points. So, even if he’s played in a dome or retractable roof stadium, Goff has still not finished with great numbers when he hasn’t played at home.
The Los Angeles Chargers ranked seventh in pass percentage last season with Kellen Moore leading the offense. Justin Herbert averaged 35.1 pass attempts in 13 games. New offensive coordinator Greg Roman has served as OC for three different teams in 10 years at the NFL level. In that time, his offenses finished 30th, 30th, 32nd, 26th, 32nd, 31st, 32nd, 21st and 30th in pass percentage. The most pass attempts one of his field generals has averaged was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). He is the lone quarterback to average more than 30 pass attempts per game under Roman. That’s bad news for Herbert.
Matthew Stafford finished last season as the QB15, averaging 16.2 points per game. It was a tale of two seasons, however, as Stafford averaged 251.1 passing yards, 13.5 fantasy points and scored nine touchdowns in his first nine games. Over his final six starts, he averaged 284.1 passing yards, 20.3 points and threw 15 touchdowns. In that span, Stafford scored at least 18.5 points in five straight games. He had strung together five straight such performance just once before in his career (2013). Also notable is that Stafford averaged 17 points in the 11 games where he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available.
Deshaun Watson has started and finished 11 games over the last two seasons with the Browns, averaging 15.8 fantasy points. It should be noted, however, that he was better last season (17.7 points per game) than in 2022, when he averaged just 14.3 points after an extended absence from the league due to off-field issues. That includes three games where he scored at least 18.9 points. While it was just five games, Watson was still an asset.
The Cincinnati Bengals ranked second in pass percentage last year under former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. On the flip side, the team ranked 31st in run percentage. By comparison, the Tennessee Titans, Callahan’s new team, were 24th in pass percentage and ninth in run percentage. With Callahan now leading the Titans offense and Derrick Henry no longer on the roster, those numbers are destined to change. That’s good news for Will Levis, who has some fantasy sleeper/breakout appeal in what should be a pass-laden attack.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs played 13 games last season, averaging 20.7 touches and 13.9 points. He also averaged 2.6 yards per rush, which was a drop of almost three full yards compared to 2022. When Jacobs missed the last four games, Zamir White took over as the main running back in Las Vegas. He averaged 23.3 touches and 15.2 points during that time, bettering Jacobs in both categories. With Jacobs now in Green Bay, White will be a popular breakout back.
James Cook averaged 14.4 touches (12 rushes) and 11.8 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey at the helm of the Bills offense. When Joe Brady took over as the new offensive coordinator, Cook averaged 19.6 touches (16.7 rushes) and 16.4 PPR points. That’s an increase of nearly five fantasy points under Brady’s guidance. Cook could be on the verge of a big season, so I can see him being picked as early as the third round in drafts.
The addition of Zach Charbonnet didn’t put a huge dent into Ken Walker’s touch share last season. In 14 games where both running backs were active, Walker averaged 16 touches to Charbonnet’s 7.4 touches. In his first two seasons in the NFL, before the Seahawks drafted Charbonnet, Walker averaged 17 and 16.5 touches, respectively. So, unless things change with the new coaching staff, Walker should still be seen as a solid No. 2 runner.
Raheem Mostert averaged 15.6 touches and 17.9 fantasy points in 15 games last season. In six contests played without De’Vone Achane, he averaged 14.5 touches and 16.6 points. In nine games played with Achane in the lineup, Mostert averaged 16.3 touches and 18.7 points. So, Mostert was surprisingly betterand more productive when Achane was active.
Najee Harris averaged 16.7 touches and 11.6 fantasy points per game last season. He also averaged 0.69 points per touch. His teammate, Jaylen Warren, averaged 12.4 touches and 11.5 points per game. He averaged 0.94 points per touch. So, while Harris is going a few rounds higher than Warren in drafts based on current ADP data, the latter runner was more efficient last season and will no doubt be a better bargain in your fantasy drafts.
Aaron Jones scored fewer than 10 fantasy points in all but three of his first eight games of last season. In that time, he averaged 12.8 touches, 3.8 yards per rush and 10.9 points. Over his final three regular-season games, however, he averaged 23.3 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 15.9 points. If we also include his two playoff games, Jones averaged 22.6 touches, 5.7 yards per rush and 19.4 points in his final five contests. He rushed for 100-plus yards in every game. Before this magical stretch, Jones had never rushed for 100-plus yards in more than two consecutive games in his career. When you also consider that his overall points-per-game average has declined five straight years dating back to 2019, and that incredibly productive stretch of games looks like a massive outlier.
In six games as the featured running back in New England last season, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 20 touches (14.8 rushes). He averaged just 2.9 yards per rush, however, and 66 percent of his total PPR fantasy points in those games came as a receiver. Now back in Dallas, I wouldn’t expect a lot from Zeke as a runner. In fact, he’ll need to be used as a receiver and get the majority of the red zone carries to hit his flex starter ceiling.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson averaged 7.2 catches, 114.2 yards and scored three touchdowns in five games with Kirk Cousins under center last season. In those games, he averaged 21.8 fantasy points. In his five games without Cousins (Nick Mullen was under center), he averaged 6.4 catches, 100.6 yards and scored two touchdowns. Jefferson still put up a solid 18.6 points per game in those contests. With Cousins now in Minnesota, Jefferson will be catching passes from either rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy or veteran journeyman Sam Darnold. It’s a downgrade, but he’s still a top-five wideout.
Speaking of Cousins, just 12.5 percent of his throws last season could be labeled as “bad” (excluding spikes or throwaways). His catchable throw percentage was 81.4. In Atlanta, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke threw “bad” passes almost 20 percent of the time. Ridder’s catchable throw percentage was 75.5, while Heinicke’s was 63.2. Their combined off-target throw percentage was 22.8. Obviously, Cousins’ presence is great news for the fantasy potential of breakout candidate Drake London, whose ADP is moving up.
Puka Nacua played 12 games with Cooper Kupp last season. He averaged 5.2 catches, 78.7 yards and scored four touchdowns in those games. His fantasy point average was 15.7. In the five games Nacua played without Kupp, he averaged 8.6 catches, 108.4 yards and scored two touchdowns. His fantasy point average was 21.9 points. That is more than a six-point increase in games where Kupp was out. If Kupp can avoid injuries this season, Nacua, a first-round fantasy selection, will be hard-pressed to duplicate his 2023 totals.
Davante Adams averaged 6.5 catches, 67 yards and scored five touchdowns in 11 games with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Las Vegas Raiders. In that time, he averaged 15.9 fantasy points. He also scored 12-plus PPR points in all but two games, including five games with more than 15 points. If we project his average points scored with O’Connell under center over 17 games, Adams will score 270 points. That would be slightly more fantasy points than he scored last season (265.4), so Adams remains a fantasy WR1.
Michael Pittman Jr. averaged nearly 12 targets and 18 fantasy points in his three full games with Anthony Richardson under center in 2023. That’s a small sample size, but it’s notable. In his other 13 games without Richardson, Pittman Jr. averaged 9.4 targets and 15.1 fantasy points. He also scored just three touchdowns in that time. So, the concerns about Pittman seeing his stat declining with Richardson under center shouldn’t be so prominent.
Stefon Diggs averaged 10.2 targets and 20.2 fantasy points in 10 games with Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. He scored seven touchdowns in those games. When Dorsey was fired and the Bills promoted Joe Brady, Diggs averaged 8.2 targets and 10.3 points (seven games), and was held to one touchdown. Now in Houston, Diggs’ targets-per-game average could top off at around eight, as he’ll have to share the workload with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others. I see him as a No. 2 fantasy wideout this season.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram averaged 13.6 points last season, which was good enough to finish fourth among tight ends. It should be noted, however, he averaged 10.4 points in his first 11 games. While that’s certainly respectable, that average swelled to 19.3 points in his final six contests. During that time, he scored at least 17.5 points four times including three games with more than 23 points and one with more than 32 points. In his prior 53 games between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants, he scored at least 17.5 points just twice. So, that six-game stretch was a massive career outlier. I’d expect some regression.
David Njoku averaged 4.1 catches, 38.3 yards and scored one touchdown in six games with Watson under center last season. In that time, he averaged 8.7 points. In his five games with Joe Flacco, Njoku averaged 7.5 catches, 78 yards and scored four touchdowns. Those totals were good enough to average 18.2 points per game, which is nearly 10 more points than he averaged with Watson at the helm. Flacco is no longer in Cleveland, so fantasy fans have to hope his totals with Watson improve. Otherwise, he could be a dud.
Trey McBride averaged three targets and 4.6 fantasy points in his first seven games of last season while playing with Zach Ertz. When Ertz went down with an injury, McBride averaged 8.5 targets and nearly 15 fantasy points the rest of the season. He’ll be one of the most popular breakout tight ends in 2024 fantasy football drafts. In fact, I have him ranked in my initial tier with Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
No tight end in the league who played in at least 15 games and saw at least 75 targets last season had a lower catchable pass percentage than Kyle Pitts. The tight end who saw the second-most catchable passes based on those same parameters was T.J. Hockenson, who played most of his games with Cousins. Now the starting quarterback in Atlanta, Cousins should help Pitts finally meet his lofty statistical and fantasy expectations in 2024.
