In 2023, the AFC South was supposed to be a formality.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were going to roll to a division title, likely to be wrapped up by Thanksgiving. And, at 8–3, that appeared to be the case.
Then, the Jaguars won just one of their final six games, missed the playoffs, and the Houston Texans stunned the NFL to win the division title behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Indianapolis Colts finished 9–8, losing on the final weekend of the season to the Texans with a chance to win the division.
This season, Houston is universally considered the division favorites, while Indianapolis and Jacksonville are right on its heels. As for the Tennessee Titans, questions abound based on an active offseason and the unknown of second-year quarterback Will Levis.
Let’s look at how each team fared over the past few months.
Houston Texans
Offseason grade: B
Key additions: Edge Danielle Hunter, WR Stefon Diggs, OT Blake Fisher, RB Joe Mixon, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DT Denico Autry
Key subtractions: LB Blake Cashman, DT Maliek Collins, Edge Jonathan Greenard, DT Sheldon Rankins
Analysis: The Texans added plenty of firepower, while also bringing back an important piece on offense. Tight end Dalton Schultz was re-signed to a three-year deal, while Houston general manager Nick Caserio added Mixon via trade before a curious extension. Additionally, Houston took Fisher in the second round, likely signaling Tytus Howard making a permanent move to guard.
Of course, the big move was trading for Diggs. The acquisition was wise, but the decision to void the last three years of his deal, making him an unrestricted free agent after 2024, was bizarre. Houston gave up a second-round pick for Diggs and can’t lose him after 17 games.
Defensively, the Texans brought in Autry to man the interior while Hunter will provide pass rush. However, the losses of linebacker Cashman, Collins and Greenard are significant.
Indianapolis Colts
Offseason grade: B
Key additions: QB Joe Flacco, Edge Laiatu Latu
Key subtractions: RB Zach Moss, QB Gardner Minshew II
Analysis: The Colts had plenty of money at their disposal for free agency, and largely used it to keep their own talent.
Indianapolis re-signed linebacker Zaire Franklin, receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and slot corner Kenny Moore II, making sure more roster holes weren’t created. In the draft, GM Chris Ballard addressed the pass rush in the first round, selecting UCLA’s Laiatu Latu before upgrading the offense with receiver Adonai Mitchell in the second round.
The big question is whether the Colts did enough to fix the secondary. While bringing Moore back was instrumental, Indianapolis failed to trade for L’Jarius Sneed, leaving it with a significant hole on the perimeter. Safety is also a concern, as much is being asked of third-year man Nick Cross.
If the secondary holds up and Mitchell becomes an immediate contributor alongside Pittman and Josh Downs, the Colts could compete for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Offseason grade: C
Key additions: C Mitch Morse, DB Darnell Savage Jr., CB Ronald Darby, DT Arik Armstead, WR Gabe Davis, WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, QB Mac Jones
Key subtractions: WR Calvin Ridley, K Brandon McManus, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Foley Fatukasi
Analysis: Jacksonville had a busy offseason. The Jaguars made some terrific signings led by a two-year deal for veteran center Mitch Morse, who has played for Doug Peterson during their shared time in Kansas City. Jacksonville was also wise to add Armstead on a three-year pact, putting him on a front with edge rusher Travon Walker and Josh Allen.
However, GM Trent Baslke also made some curious choices. He released Williams and receiver Zay Jones, while signing Darby and Davis as their de facto replacements. Are those players upgrades? Slightly, at best.
In the draft, the Jaguars neglected the corner spot once more until the third round, while adding yet another receiver in Thomas Jr. Jacksonville is essentially betting on the offense to set the pace while the defense has to get home quickly. If it doesn’t, the secondary could be a major problem. Again.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans signed Ridley to a four-year deal worth $92 million including $46.9 million in guaranteed money.
Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA
Offseason grade: C-
Key additions: WR Calvin Ridley, CB L’Jarius Sneed, C Lloyd Cushenberry, OT JC Latham, RB Tony Pollard, CB Chidobe Awuzie
Key subtractions: DT Denico Autry, RB Derrick Henry, CB Kristian Fulton, LB Azeez Al-Shaair
Analysis: The Titans added quality talent. They also did it at an outrageous price.
Ridley is a good receiver who had 1,000 yards last year. The problem? Ridley was signed to a four-year deal worth $92 million including $46.9 million in guaranteed money. Ridley is already 29 years old and has only produced at a star level for one year of his career.
Then there’s the Sneed trade. Sneed played at an All-Pro level for the Kansas City Chiefs last season despite not earning the accolades. However, Sneed was given a four-year, $76.4 million deal with a whopping $55 million guaranteed. That’s a lot of money for a corner learning a new system and dealing with a knee that caused concern throughout last season.
In the draft, GM Ran Carthon did well taking Latham in the first round, but Sweat in the second round was a significant reach. All told, the Titans got better in the immediate, but at what price?
