As always, making predictions—especially about the future—is a proceed-at-your-own-risk endeavor. But survey the 2023 Australian Open and it’s hard not to pick Novak Djokovic against said field. After last year’s debacle, the nine-time champ returns. He hasn’t lost a match in Melbourne since 2018 (trivia: Hyeon Chung) and looked in peaked form last week in Adelaide. A peak-Nadal-at-the-French-Open-level favorite, it would be an Antipodean upset for Djokovic not to leave with the men’s trophy. But there are 127 matches to be played, so here goes:
1. Rafael Nadal: The star of the 2022 event will seek a 23rd major, and third title Down Under. But he’s 36, a new father, and, most concerningly, is sub-.500 since Wimbledon, and starts with a brutal draw (young fellow lefty Jack Draper). The fastest way to go broke in tennis: betting against the legends (especially in best-of-five formats). But hard to shake the sense that this is Nadal’s final trip to Melbourne.
2. Casper Ruud: Quick: name the only ATP player other than Nadal to reach two major finals in 2022. A fine campaign for a weakness-free player— “a solid countertop,” as they say—with a poised disposition. Career record in Australia, though? 4-3. The surface doesn’t play to his strengths. And, man, has he played a lot of tennis lately, choosing the novel approach of barnstorming in December and taking a rest in February. Still, a likely Week Two player.
3. Stefanos Tsitsipas: We say it again: for a player who’s thoughtful and accessible and endearingly off-beat, he sure comes wreathed in a lot of drama, starting with paternal propinquity. The overarching question: is he a player capable of winning majors? Or is he a fine slugger—your 2022 ATP match win leader— capable of deep runs, whose window is perhaps closing? His track record in Australia is a strong one. He was terrific in the United Cup, winning both blowouts and in third-set thrillers. Does he have it in him to win seven matches, not five or six?
4. Novak Djokovic: The overwhelming favorite. Aiming for a tenth Aussie Open title—perspective: more wins in Melbourne than Roger Federer has at Wimbledon. He played as well as ever to close 2022 and start 2023, winning in Adelaide with typical give-no-quarter tennis. The concern that he will be booed off the court after last year’s debacle is ill-founded. The concern over his hamstring is more legit. But still. Freak injury notwithstanding, how is he not the 2023 champion?
5. Andrey Rublev: Starts out against Dominic Thiem. Remains in that no-man’s-land….he can play with anyone, when he generates all sorts of pace, often mid-rally. But does he have the stuff to win majors? (And has been impacted more than he lets on by the war in Ukraine and the collateral damage he’s suffered as a Russian.) Sadly, the data points are mounting and he’s too unreliable to consider a contender, until he proves otherwise. Slow start to the year with losses in Adelaide to Bautista Agut and then Kokkinakis.
6. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Coming off a fine season, that saw him take his first pro title—and three additional ones. The salon is still getting a smidge restless for a deeper run at a Major; and less contentment in simply putting up a good fight. But so much to like here. Not least that he is 22. A surprise loss in Adelaide to Alexei Popyrin but big chances at the first Major of the year.
7. Daniil Medvedev: You’d be challenged to find a player coming off a stranger 2022. He ascended to No. 1. But otherwise—and remember: this was coming off a major win to close out 2021—had few triumphs last year. A heartbreaking loss to Nadal in the A.O. final. Injury. A Wimbledon ban. A defeat to Kyrgios in New York. Four straight losses to close the year. Starts off 2023 with some solid tennis but then yet another defeat to Djokovic, not an especially close one. Likeable guy, likable game. But a player ready for a reset.
8. Taylor Fritz: Coming off the best year of his career, the highest-ranked American looks to continue achieving. His game has matured. His disposition has matured. A pro’s pro whose ascent has been steady and methodical and doesn’t seem particularly limited. There are some A.O. memories he would prefer to exorcise. But looked good in the United Cup—banking more than $750,000—and has a big opportunity here. (And Alcaraz bumping him to the top eight could be significant.)
9. Holger Rune: Still a teenager, Rune closed strong in 2022, beating Djokovic (et al) in Paris and winning 15 of his 16 matches. An ideal tennis physique (6-2, 169 lbs.) and no shortage of self-belief. Will be a top-16 seed for the first time in his career. He lost last week to Yoshihito Nishioka and for his career he’s 0-1 at the Australian Open. But you figure that will change starting Monday.
10. Hubert Hurkacz: Trains in the heat and humidity of Florida, so conditions won’t trouble him. (Not always the case with northern Europeans in Melbourne.) Miami winner in 2021; last player to defeat Federer at Wimbledon; Montreal finalist in 2022. Is he ready for the next step? Nearing that Rublevian phase—lovely guy; episodically terrific player; but still unclear he has the stuff of a major winner.
11. Cam Norrie: The British lefty seems to become harder to beat with each passing tournament. At 27, he is still growing into an expanding game. His defeat of Alcaraz in Cincy ranks among the best matches of 2022. And started 2023 with a three-set win over Nadal.
12. Alexander Zverev: His first major since wrenching his right ankle at the French Open. Even watching him play in the Saudi Arabia exhibition, it was clear his movement was visibly compromised. He lost badly to Fritz in the United Cup. This could be a slow recovery.
13. Matteo Berrettini: He’s gotten a lot of Netflix attention recently, but otherwise he had a quiet and tough 2022, pocked by injuries and Covid positivity. He generally looked strong when he did play. At 6-5, he crushes the ball, especially on the forehand side. But, like countryman Sinner, can he go seven matches without physical impairment?
14. Pablo Carreno Busta: He is what he is….an admirable veteran capable of playing spoiler and reaching latter rounds; but not a true contender.
15. Jannik Sinner: Still only 21, but the stock has cooled a bit. Some memorable matches in 2022 (not least that 3:00 a.m. classic against Alcaraz in the U.S. Open quarters) but concerns about physical durability are mounting. Can he hold up to win 21 sets over two weeks? Starts against Kyle Edmund, former semifinalist.
16. Frances Tiafoe: A semifinalist at the previous major and now slides into the top 16 position (thanks to Alcaraz, the player who beat him in aforementioned semifinal). Magic eight ball says all vectors pointing in the right direction. Biggest improvement over the last six months or so: decision-making. Let’s see if he can bring it to bear in Melbourne.
Seeds 17-32
18. Karen Khachanov: Russian veteran coming off U.S. Open semi run.
19. Nick Kyrgios: Your guess is as good as mine is as good as his. Watch out for the third rounder against feisty Holger Rune.
20. Denis Shapovalov: The Erratic Canadian can be his own worst enemy. But he took two sets from Nadal in 2022.
21. Borna Coric: ATP’s comeback player for 2022.
22. Alex de Minaur: Always dangerous and scored a win over Nadal already in 2023.
29. Sebastian Korda: The tennis is there, as evidenced most recently by a run to Adelaide final (and getting a match point against Djokovic.) Can the durability follow?
31: Yoshi Nishioka: Good for him squeezing in a seeded slot. Japanese speedster banked three wins in Adelaide.
Dark Horses
Tommy Paul: versatile shotmaker who has quietly won 39 matches in 2022. Still has some levels to ascend before he’s a Major contender. But at age 25, he’s progressing nicely.
Maxime Cressy: gone from an easy-to-root-for sideshow to a credible and creditable dangerous floater.
Emil Ruusuvouri: Perhaps the best player you’ve never seen in action.
Jack Draper: British lefty—who tuned FA-A at the previous Major—is a growth stock. Can he beat Nadal in R1?
Stan Wawrinka: You know the rules. All former champions merit mention.
Andy Murray: You know the rules. All former No.1 players merit mention.
Dominic Thiem: Former finalist and former hard court Major winner, slowly returning to form? We’ll see early as he drew Rublev in R1.
Gael Monfils: He’s 36, a father, and still at it….
First round matches to watch
Nadal v. Draper: Lefty-on-lefty. Is the kid ready?
Tsitsipas v. Halys: Deceptively tough first rounder for Greek.
Brandon Nakashima v. Mackie McDonald: Two friends play for the California state championship.
Vasek Pospisil v. Felix Auger-Aliassime: For the Canadian national title.
Rublev v. Thiem: Brutal for both.
Murray v. Berrettini: Which player carries in fewer niggling injuries?
First round upset
Draper d. Nadal wouldn’t shock (especially if Nadal is less than 100 percent) but we’ll take: Thiem d. Rublev. And Korda d. Medvedev in R3.
Doubles winners
Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury
Semis
Tsitsipas d. Considerable surprise (Korda?)
Djokovic d. Fritz
Finals
Djokovic d. Tsitsipas
